Reddit reviews Armed and Considered Dangerous: A Survey of Felons and Their Firearms (Social Institutions and Social Change)

The study usually cited when throwing around that talking point is the awful Kellerman study from 1986. Here's an article talking about a lot of similar points with a section specifically refuting that study, and here's a more concise rebuttal (with tables!) from another source.

This book has a lot of good info on the subject of civilian gun ownership and crime, both from the perspective of how the guns get used and how criminals' perceptions change when they think a homeowner might be armed.

If you've ever had any time around guns or using guns it's also very clear they're tools with a simple purpose, and it starts to "feel" like bullshit. The whole statistic of "you're probably going to shoot your kid" is like someone telling you that you're probably going to kill your kid with your power drill. Unless you're trying to, or there are way bigger issues in play than the fact that there's a power tool nearby, it's just not likely.

I know my bias as a CCW holder myself, so I'm very cautious about promoting the idea they reduce crime, especially in a forum where objectivity is so highly valued. I trust the (admittedly dated) CDC study partially because they're cautious enough not to draw conclusions either way. Takes a good deal of integrity to study something in depth and return with "we still don't know."

The individual study I'm most familiar with is this one which I've read a couple times and which includes a great amount of data:
http://www.amazon.com/Armed-Considered-Dangerous-Firearms-Institutions/dp/0202305422

I like the link you provided though. I'll have to read through it in more detail with some more skepticism soon.