Reddit reviews Red Families v. Blue Families: Legal Polarization and the Creation of Culture
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> Points 1 and 3 in the summary I quoted apply to measures of income regardless of whether you're counting household size or individual income.
Okay. Taken together, the following issues would tend to make me question my men's wage example:
One resolution could be that we are looking at the wrong time frame (30-45 years vs. 8 years). EDIT: Here is an article from five thirty eight, looking at a 15 year time frame. There is some sense in attributing the rise of Trump to things that happened recently as opposed to 45 year trends.
It's also possible that what is "lost" can be not just economic but social or cultural ... e.g. Putnam #1, Putnam #2, Cahn and Carbone. This would still relate to loss aversion, it would just be a loss of a more intangible sort.
Luckily most Americans put a huge value on independent thinking, even when it is divisive (compared to many other cultures). I'd say this has more to do with the growing secularism than any birth statistics.
On the other hand, his point is generally on target, though narrowing it down to the single issue of pro-choice/life is too simplistic. If you step back to the larger "conservative vs liberal" families and how that impacts opinion towards reproduction, there is a whole book on it.
http://www.amazon.com/Red-Families-v-Blue-Polarization/dp/0195372174
"Families in the bluest states have fewer teen mothers and lower divorce rates, and emphasize responsibility; red states have high teen birth and divorce rates and emphasize tradition. According to the authors, these core differences are the crucible from which the battles over abortion, same sex marriage, and contraception spring."
"Blue" families tend to have fewer kids and take longer to have them (average age of the woman having her first child is higher). Both of these factors contribute to lower effective reproduction rates, so yes, the same people that are pro-life have a pretty good shot at outpacing the pro-choice crowd in baby output alone. Luckily, kids don't always believe what their parents did, and society is growing more liberal on issues like this every day... so it works out in the end.