Reddit reviews Sharper: A Guide to Modern Sports Betting

This is not exactly correct, either.

Here is an excerpt from Sharper: A Guide to Modern Sports Betting discussing this very subject:

>In truth, bookies rarely bait players. They rarely put their opinions into play. They aren’t in the business of gambling. They aren’t as good at sports betting as the best sharps. They don’t need to be. Their job is not to pick winners but to manage the book’s risk and maximize its profits. They move their lines to do that, not to reflect their own opinion. Book owners do not want their linemakers gambling; you don’t either. Bookies who gamble go bust and stiff customers. Aces Gold was an offshore sports book that went broke making offers too good to be true and at the end tried to recoup its money by taking a position on the Super Bowl. They offered a line a key half-point better than anyone else on that game so they got lop-sided action. When the wrong team, from their point of view, won, they went under and their playersplayers got stiffed. If most shops offer a football game at -7 but you see one offering it at -6.5, it most likely isn’t because they think the underdog will cover and want to bet on it themselves by attracting action on the favorite. It’s much, much more likely that they themselves got whacked by oversized betting on the dog and need action on the favorite to reduce their risk on the game. And if all the shops are offering -6.5, it isn’t the shops making the favorite more attractive, it’s the market seeking an equilibrium point spread and finding it there.

> Here’s a general rule: If you’re picking the favorite take the ML, if you’re picking the underdog take the spread.

Be careful with this; there is no such rule. You might be inclined to pick up a book or two about basic sports betting principles if you really are serious about deep-diving into it. There are, predictably, more bad ones than good ones. I think "Sharper" is a good enough starting point and well-received.

https://www.amazon.com/Sharper-Guide-Modern-Sports-Betting-ebook/dp/B01K5SDAKS

It is free on Kindle Unlimited. It is not perfect and there are others, but it will get you started.

Pokerjoe (the author of the FAQ in the r/sportsbook sidebar) wrote a good, cheap ebook on the subject that will save you a lot of headache. Recommended if you've passed Sports Betting 101A but aren't ready for 201 or an internship.

If you're new to gambling math, Don Peszynski's Lose More, Win Less is a great place to start (and is very well done, despite the hokey title).

For stuff on how to actually build a model, check this old post of mine.