Reddit reviews The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future
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A few months ago I attended a pretty interesting lecture by Dr. Laurence Smith of UCLA promoting his book entitled The World in 2050. He predicts that the forces of demographics, natural resources, climate change, globalization, and technology will lead a huge migration to northern rim countries in the Arctic. The issues the book addresses are probably more related to your last question about the stability of different nations in terms of resources, but I'd highly recommend reading it.