Best business management & leadership books according to redditors
We found 4,460 Reddit comments discussing the best business management & leadership books. We ranked the 1,469 resulting products by number of redditors who mentioned them. Here are the top 20.
You might be interested in this book:
Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman. Kahneman has done Nobel-award winning research into the way human beings make irrational decisions and why. The TL;DR is that the brain has two distinct systems for thinking -- a strong, fast, emotional and relatively dumb one, and a weaker, slower, rational, much smarter one. When you "think with your gut" you're using the first system, and when you ponder something carefully and make a rational choice you're using the second system.
So what you had here was a good example of the two systems being in conflict. The dumber but stronger emotional system probably said something like "Ugh, I don't want to walk up those stairs! I can do this with a butter knife." The smarter but weaker rational system then pointed out that this was pretty dumb, but it wasn't strong enough to override the "fast" system, which is all about short-term tactics, not long-term strategies. The slow system then sent you off to Reddit to complain about how your fast system is an idiot.
Edit: I wasn't aware the the ebook links were unauthorized so I've removed them per request of the moderators.
That and the entire list of cognitive biases on Wikipedia.
edit: as this seems to be so popular, here is a good book about cognitive bias
Well this seems like a good opportunity to post a few of the lessons I learned in my 20s.
To my former self:
If you're depressed, here's how to turn it around
Fap less, and never to porn
Gratitude
Wealth
Theories
Girls
Career
Flow
Meditation
*****
Edit:
To answer some requests, here's my list of resources.
Wealth/Metaphysics
This audiobook has the best summary I've found of how wealth works
Lifting
How Procrastination works:
How Business works
What innovation actually is and how to do it:
How economics works:
How to get things done:
Task Management tool:
Spiritual Books
How to be a man:
Audiobooks (most of these can be found on audiobook):
Frame Control (Anytime you feel like you're trying too hard or begging for something, you lost the frame)
This is my favourite book of all. They talk about the new type of conscousness which is really really interesting to me. May not apply to all people.
If anyone find this book interesting I'd love to talk about it:
How the world works:
In terms of war, corruption, oppression, unnecessary deaths, and overall human well-being, this is by far the best time to be alive in human history.
It’s really not even close.
For those that are actually interested:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1250107814/ref=cm_sw_r_oth_api_i_ujXXDbDQ5PDWJ
https://www.amazon.com/dp/0143111388/ref=cm_sw_r_oth_api_i_0nXXDbKSSRGA7
Before you go and negotiate the salary read THIS book. Or do the audio book. There is a section on negotiating salary but the whole book is useful. Really changed the way I talk with people.
The Black Swan
Seriously, this is a ridiculously important book. Most people are terrible at the concept of evaluating probability/risk of rare events. Even people who think they are being good at it.
Here's my list of the classics:
General Computing
Computer Science
Software Development
Case Studies
Employment
Language-Specific
C
Python
C#
C++
Java
Linux Shell Scripts
Web Development
Ruby and Rails
Assembly
You’re not wrong. Even in developing countries it’s better than at any time in history. Check out the book Factfullness if you like to read. It’s pretty amazing.
"Going with your instincts" and "thinking things through" are obviously different things. But why are we so inclined to prefer former over latter? What are the strengths and limitations of both systems? What are the easy mistakes, convenient half-truths and sneaky traps we fall for every day while staying completely oblivious to flaws in our thinking processes? Well, here it is: [Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman] (http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555)
He's talking about Deep Blue's move 44 of game 1. To quote Nate Silver's excellent (and highly recommended fun read) The signal and the Noise:
> ... Deep Blue did something very strange, at least to Kasparov's eyes. On its forty-fourth turn, Deep Blue moved one of its rooks into white's first row rather into a more conventional position that would have placed Kasparov's king into check. The computer's move seemed completely pointless. At a moment when it was under assault from every direction, it had essentially passed its turn, allowing Kasparov to advance one of his pawns into black's second row, where it threatened to be promoted to a queen. Even more strangely, Deep Blue resigned the game just one turn later.
> What had the computer been thinking? Kasparov wondered. He was used to seeing Deep Blue commit strategic blunders--for example, accepting the bishop-rook exchange--in complex positions where it simply couldn't think deeply enough to recognize the implications. But this had been something different: a tactical error in a relatively simple position--exactly the sort of mistake that computers don't make.
> "How can a computer commit suicide like that?" Kasparov asked Fredric Friedel, a computer chess journalist who doubled as his friend and computer expert, when they studied the match back at the Plaza Hotel that night. There were some plausible explanations, none of which especially pleased Kasparov. Perhaps Deep Blue had indeed committed "suicide," figuring that since it was bound to lose anyway, it would rather not reveal any more to Kasparov about how it played. Or perhaps, Kasparov wondered, it was part of some kind of elaborate hustle? Maybe the programmers were sandbagging, hoping to make the hubristic Kasparov overconfident by throwing the first game.
> Kasparov did what came most naturally to him when he got anxious and began to pore through the data. With the assistance of Friedel and the computer program Fritz, he found that the conventional play--black moving its rook into the sixth column and checking white's king--wasn't such a good move for Deep Blue after all: it would ultimately lead to a checkmate for Kasparov, although it would still take more than twenty moves for him to complete it.
... As Friedel recalled:
>> Deep Blue had actually worked it all out, down to the very end and simply chosen the least obnoxious losing line. "It probably saw mates in 20 and more," said Garry, thankful that he had been on the right side of these awesome calculations.
> ...
> ... there were some bugs in Deep Blue's inventory: not many, but a few. Toward the end of my interview with him, Campbell somewhat mischievously refered to an incident that had occurred toward the end of the first game in their 1997 match with Kasparov.
> "A bug occurred in the game and it may have made Kasparov misunderstand the capabilities of Deep Blue," Campbell told me [Nate Silver]. "He didn't come up with the theory that the move that it played was a bug."
> The bug had arisen on the forty-fourth move of their first game against Kasparov; unable to select a move, the program had defaulted to a last-resort fail-safe in which it picked a play completely at random. The bug had been inconsequential, coming late in the game in a position that had already been lost; Campbell and team repaired it the next day. "We had seen it once before, in a test game earlier in 1997, and thought that it was fixed," he told me. "Unfortunately there was one case we had missed".
> In fact, the bug was anything but unfortunate for Deep Blue: it was likely what allowed the computer to beat Kasparov. In the popular recounting of Kasparov's match against Deep Blue, it was the second game in which his problems originated--when he had made the almost unprecedented error of forfeiting a position that he could probably have drawn. But what had inspired Kasparov to commit this mistake? His anxiety over Deep Blue's forty-fourth move in the first game--the move in which the computer had moved its rook for no apparent purpose. Kasparov had concluded that the counterintuitive play must be a sign of superior intelligence. He had never considered that it was simply a bug.
The E-myth revisited, by Michael Gerber. I'm sure this will be recommended many times, and for good reason.
https://www.amazon.com/Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses-About/dp/0887307280
Not sure if it's a cultural thing between the US and the UK or just society evolving now we have social media and stuff but I recently reread How to win friends and influence people and though it was massively overrated. Same goes for The 7 habbits of highly effective people.
Anyway, heres my list of books and why:-
Bounce
Excellent book in my opinion. Based on variations of the 10,000-hour rule with plenty of examples. Also touches on how the unknown habits and circumstance of someone can lead to outstanding abilities.
Zero To One
The first book that I couldn't put down until I completed it. Picked a fair few things up from it as well as a bunch of things I hope to move forward within the future with startups.
The 33 Strategies of War
Not a business book but definitely my style if you take the examples and strategies and turn them into business. This is the second book I have not been able to put down once picking it up.
The E-Myth Revisited
Although I had a decent understanding of how to allocate duties to people depending on their job role this helped me better understand it as well as the importance of doing it.
ReWork
Another book I loved, just introduced me to a bunch of new concepts with a fair few I hope to use in the future.
Black Box Thinking
Coming from and engineering background I was already used to being ok with my failures provided I was learning from them but this book is based around how different industries treat failure and how it is important to accept it and grow from it.
Millionaire Fastlane
I feel this is an excellent book for reality checks and getting people into a better mindset of what to expect and the amount of work required. It also explains a few common misconceptions of the get rich slow style methods where you may end up rich but you will be 60 years old or more.
I update this post with all of the books I have read with a rating but here are my top picks.
The "Practice of System and Network Administration"; probably a bit too early in your career but has some strong advice.
https://www.amazon.com/Practice-System-Network-Administration-Enterprise/dp/0321919165
There's also a volume 2 which is cloud/site reliability engineering related.
be careful when at intersection? should be retitled, ANOTHER REASON TO GET OFF YOUR PHONE WHEN DRIVING. if someone gets busted, good, they should be fined 10 times the current amounts. IT's SO fucking dangerous.
I am currently reading this book (http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374275637), nobel prize winning author Daniel Kahneman is not the best writer, but his ideas are troubling and important. highly recommended.
Check out harry potter and the methods of rationality.
Read/Learn Non Violent Communication
Start to [Meditate] (http://humanistsofmn.org/127-better-critical-thinking-through-meditation)
Philosophy - "love of wisdom"
Read about rationality/critical thinking
Learn about the common [cognitive biases] (http://www.businessinsider.com/cognitive-biases-2014-6?op=1) and [logical fallacies] (https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/)
Create some rationality habits
Learn about the ways Marketing/propaganda is used to influence you
The Trivium
There isn't really such thing as fast thinkers, just people that rely more frequently on the fast thinking process that the slow thinking process. The fast thinking process happens by training information into your mind. the more often you are exposed to something, the more likely you will retain it in a fast thinking process.
This is how we learn things some basic things (alphabet, numbers). For an example, as children we repeatedly get exposed to the times tables in school. We are asked to read and recite the 1 times table,s then 2 times tables, frequently up to the 15 times table. This constant and frequent exposure is to train it to be written to the fast thinking process.
The fast thinking process is also highly unreliable and easily fooled. Take this for example (System 1 refers to fast thinking process, System 2 refers to slow thinking process):
A bat and ball costs £1.10 in total.
The bat costs one pound more than the ball.
How much does the ball cost?
System 1 provides the almost instant answer of 10p, which is, of course, wrong. The correct solution (5p) requires the conscious slow thinking of the cerebral cortex referred to as System 2.
Edit: The reason why this fails is because we look at the problem and attempt to apply a best fit known fast process that we have in our mind (X - Y model). However, the correct model is (X - Y)/2. the X - Y model is something we are exposed to extremely frequently and so retains in System 1 very well. But the (X-Y)/2 model, for most people, is rarely needed, and since we aren't exposed to it at any stage in our lives on a regular basis, it doesn't get stored in System 1. The problem with "fast thinkers" is that if they overly rely on System 1, then there's a danger of applying the wrong model to a given situation giving the wrong answer.
If you are interested in reading up on the 2 systems, I highly recommend the book "Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman". The author is a Nobel Memorial Prize winning psychologist who has studied extensibly in this area.
Here is a scientific explanation of the Artosis curse: Regression toward the mean.
Basically, Artosis makes his predictions based on observations of high above (their own usual) average achievements of players. The problem is that there is actually quite a bit of randomness involved. At the high level SC II is being played at no single player is skilled enough to dominate everyone else (consistently, but likely not even at any one point in time if everyone would play against everybody else instead of just a random(ha!) selection). Randomness means, that when you observe someone being above average the chance that next time you observe them they will be WORSE, closer to the mean (back to normal!), is much higher compared to observing them doing something outstanding again.
I would like to point out that this is ONE of the forces at work. It does explain the Artosis curse. It does not (need to!) explain everything that goes on in the world or even just in the world of SC II. And it doesn't claim that this happens every single time, only on average.
Here is what Kahneman used as an example:
> The psychologist Daniel Kahneman, winner of the 2002 Nobel prize in economics, pointed out that regression to the mean might explain why rebukes can seem to improve performance, while praise seems to backfire.[8]
> “I had the most satisfying Eureka experience of my career while attempting to teach flight instructors that praise is more effective than punishment for promoting skill-learning. When I had finished my enthusiastic speech, one of the most seasoned instructors in the audience raised his hand and made his own short speech, which began by conceding that positive reinforcement might be good for the birds, but went on to deny that it was optimal for flight cadets. He said, “On many occasions I have praised flight cadets for clean execution of some aerobatic maneuver, and in general when they try it again, they do worse. On the other hand, I have often screamed at cadets for bad execution, and in general they do better the next time. So please don’t tell us that reinforcement works and punishment does not, because the opposite is the case.” This was a joyous moment, in which I understood an important truth about the world: because we tend to reward others when they do well and punish them when they do badly, and because there is regression to the mean, it is part of the human condition that we are statistically punished for rewarding others and rewarded for punishing them. I immediately arranged a demonstration in which each participant tossed two coins at a target behind his back, without any feedback. We measured the distances from the target and could see that those who had done best the first time had mostly deteriorated on their second try, and vice versa. But I knew that this demonstration would not undo the effects of lifelong exposure to a perverse contingency.
If you only read one book this year, let it be Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.
> "Collectively, the world is more stressed, worried, sad and in pain today than we've ever seen it,"
I would contend that this statement from the article is contentious. Was the world less stressed during the major wars that have plagued it? What about the cold war?
Here are multiple counterexamples of things going better: https://www.amazon.com/Factfulness-Reasons-World-Things-Better/dp/1250107814
Scroll down and have a look at the graphs
Lastly, this is a short time-span. Movement upwards could simply be regression toward/away from the mean
Thank you, I appreciate your kind complement.
I would argue that the US is pushing to avoid a conflict with Iran. At least right now. IMO there won't be a war with Iran until oil price is dropped again, if ever. Iran has repeatedly violated a slew of sanctions and we know for a fact that they have been sending war materials and fighters into Afghanistan, into Iraq when it was hot, into Syria, and into Egypt most recently. The US plays it's part, saying that Iran is violating sanctions, etc. etc. and other members of the security council play their part and say hold off wait and see. But nothing happens. Nothing has happened for over 10 years of known nuclear violations. There are shadow operations like the virus, and other little artful moves meant to slow the program but no all out war. This way the UN looks deadlocked.
http://www.securitylawbrief.com/main/2013/07/un-divided-on-iran-sanctions-violations.html
I don't think this is necessarily a conspiracy, but a mutually understood set of roles nations are playing with Iran. Nobody really wants a war with Iran, but Iran is a bit of a loose cannon. The Saudis and other region nations are on board with further sanctions of Iran. Why?
Saudi Arabia is the lynch pin for all global energy politics. They produce insane amounts of oil, and have been doing so for decades. The House of Saud (royal family) controls everything in the country from oil production and profit to the military. The people are subjects, and have little real power outside of the violent, dangerous, destabilizing kind. The population of the country is a largesse state. The royal family gives everything to the people, more or less. For decades the House of Saud has been spending money hand over fist on luxuries and industrial development, but little on the actual population. About 10 years ago they switched to absolutely POURING money into building things for the people. They recognized that they had a population of wealthy, healthy people, many starting families, and nobody had a place to live, roads to get there, or any of that. It was a road to destabilization and civil unrest, and the royal family almost realized too late what was happening. They did figure it out though, so they maximized the profit margin on oil exports. You can't just pump more oil, it has detrimental effects on the oil field and long-term total production, so they are maximize the profit on what they produce and are now spending money hand over fist to upgrade the country for the people.
http://gulfnews.com/business/economy/saudi-arabia-to-spend-800m-on-land-for-riyadh-metro-1.1216763
http://persiangulffund.com/saudi-arabia-distributes-130-billion/
Happy people means the royals retain power, but the oil keeps flowing. The oil keeps flowing, WW III is averted. WW III is arguably hinged on the happiness of the people of Saudi Arabia, if you pick energy as the key to prosperity and peace globally, which I do.
So what does Iran have to do with it? Iran has been under sanction, barred from oil exports for many years now. The thing is, once you tap an oil field, you can't shut off production. The way these particular oil fields work, if you shut off the tap it might not start back up again, and if they do they will start up ad a fraction of the rate. So ever since the embargo started, Iran has been pumping. They have been pumping and storing oil. They have enough oil that they could pour it all into the market, flooding it and inflating supply to the point that oil prices drop to the level where Saudi Arabia can no longer spend the money needed to keep the people satiated.
They have so much oil stored in old tankers that they have actually created a shortfall on used oil and natural gas tankers globally. Iran has them all tied up for resource storage.http://gcaptain.com/sanctions-creating-stockpile-dozen/
http://gulfnews.com/business/oil-gas/iran-seeks-opec-consensus-on-oil-stockpile-release-by-us-1.1064765
http://marinelink.com/news/article/will-there-be-an-oil-tanker-shortage/319765.aspx
So Iran had (maybe still has?) a gun to Saudi Arabia's (and de facto the world's) head. It's the only reason they haven't been at least bombed. That and Iran seems to be playing a blustering and bluffing game. They are working hard on centrifuges and the like but it takes so much more to build a bomb than materials. What's going on in the country internally is hard to say, that's why they are the wild card. My gut feeling is that the powers in Iran know that the Iranian people don't want war. They can't look weak to the radical factions though, so they play their game. Honestly, that's just a guess.
So, the Iran situation seems to be a farce, or at least an act that can be put off for later until Saudi Arabia is stabilized for long-term production and the oil price can be brought down.
Thank you for asking though, I didn't really tie the Saudi Arabia situation in that I mentioned earlier. Iran features heavily in that script. JMO, it explains Iraq too. Saddam Hussein was a wild card that had done dumb things out of desperation before, and I think everyone truly was surprised when they didn't find massive stockpiles of radioactive material or chemical weapons. Especially given that the US sold so many chemical weapons to Iraq. With him gone Iraq is largely stable again, at least as far as oil goes. The law of unforseen and unintended consequences reigns supreme. Given how massive and complex the machine is, I don't know that peace can be maintained indefinitely. Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb
The spice must flow!
As to Israel, they don't want war either. They just want Iran off their necks, and their neighbors to be calm. They are the family nobody likes in the neighborhood, even though all those other families have their own feuds between them, and within them.
EDIT: There's always the wildcard of fracking too. This not only alleviates some of the pressure to maintain peace in the Middle East (Egypt will always be a feature though because of the canal, European-Asian trade hinges on it) but it also eliminates a lot of the competition between China and the US. I think that China, the US, and Russia would all like to see Russian production increase too. If only we can master fusion before we kill each other, that would be the day. Then we can fight (or walk the line trying not to fight) about something else.
EDIT2: Outdated info stricken.
This is a nightmare. After reading Peopleware (http://www.amazon.de/Peopleware-Productive-Projects-Tom-DeMarco/dp/0321934113/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1421350607&sr=8-1&keywords=peopleware) you'd expect major players like Facebook and the likes have learned by now. But nooooo, let's continue to pretend a software company is a huge fabric where people sit in front of monitors instead of working the assembly line. What else could be different?
\ It is entirely possible that they just do this to show off to stakeholders, because those aren't impressed by a row of closed doors.
It totally is: it applies through various principles, like priming or conditioning, that psychologists study.
For instance, an experiment was done in England. An office kitchen served as the site: the kitchen had a small donation box for leaving money if you used the kitchen supplies: milk, sugar, etc. Near the donation box there was a poster that changed weekly.
Sometimes it was images of nature and sometimes it was an image of a human face, only showing the eyes.
On weeks with the eye posters the donations jumped by a huge margin, nature days had level donations. The eye posters primed people into thinking they were being watched.
Another study tested altruism, both the experimental and control groups were lead into a classroom and had to take a multiple choice test. At some point during the test, the "teaching assistant" running the test would drop a big packet of pencils, scattering them across the classroom. The altruism test measured altruism by comparing how many pencils the test subjects would pick up to help the "teaching assistant", the multiple choice test itself was a red herring.
The only difference between the control and the experimental groups, was a screen saver on a computer sitting in the back of the classroom. The control screen saver was abstract patterns, while the experimental screen saver was floating dollar bills.
Surprisingly, even that small factor significantly decreased altruism: people were less likely to pick up pencils to help someone else when primed to think about money.
or another totally crazy one: this one was done on college students, and again asked them to take a test. The control test was very generic, while the experimental was all about old age, growing old and aging. Before and after the students took the test, their walking speed was measured and the students who took the aging exam dramatically slowed down walking afterwards: they were primed to act as thought they were old (!).
All of the above examples come from a very accessible book I highly recommend: Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555
Don't know why this is getting so heavily downvoted, this is an incredibly important development.
Anyone who isn't disturbed by this doesn't understand the gravity of what's going on with Turkey.
An alliance between Turkey and Russia might very well mean a permanent end to US (i.e. Western) hegemony.
Personally, I see lots of war in the future. This is not a good development at all.
Erdogan should have never gotten to power, Turkey should have joined the EU a long time ago. What is developing now is the worst possible outcome for Europe, the US, and the Western world in general.
The real question is why exactly it happened though. It most likely can be inevitably be traced back to US warmongering in the Middle East.
Turkey will be one of the key players of the 21st century and after China the second most important puzzle piece of geopolitical developments of our lifetime. How Turkey will align itself will ultimately decide the fate of Euroasia's future.
It's really that fucking important and anyone believing it isn't should definitely read up on these topics.
As this is an American website, I will say that for Americans I would recommend to listen to/read George Friedman (founder of the American geostrategic think tank Stratfor):
Explanation of the situation and historical background.
Interview about most common points made regarding Turkey.
["The next 100 years", noteworthy book by him touching on topics like this.](
https://www.amazon.com/The-Next-100-Years-Forecast/dp/0767923057/ref=as_at?creativeASIN=0767923057&linkCode=w61&imprToken=rb7PLDckxG56jDm0nxllzA&slotNum=0)
Well, we hit the 10000 limit. Reserving this comment for the misc. section.
FREE TIME/FUN/MISC.
The Art of Deception: Controlling the Human Element of Security
The Art of War
Steal This Computer Book 4.0: What They Won't Tell You about the Internet
How to Disappear: Erase Your Digital Footprint, Leave False Trails, and Vanish without a Trace
The Best of 2600: A Hacker Odyssey
Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to Be Smart
Casting the Net: From ARPANET to INTERNET and Beyond thanks sjhill
A Quarter Century of UNIX thanks sjhill
A Reading List For the Self-Taught Computer Scientist thanks zinver
How to Talk So Kids Will Listen & Listen So Kids Will Talk thanks segamix
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable thanks AgonistAgent
Snow Crash thanks AgonistAgent
Cryptonomicon thanks Mirple
oh man.. just read /r/AskTrumpSupporters.. its depressing.
It really doesn't matter what arguments you make at all. Their intuitions come first, arguments come second. Intuition says Hillary is snobby/rich/evil and Trump is not, end of story.
There are people justifying Trump Jrs collusion with Russians! Anything can be justified with enough mental contortion and denial.
Really, the sooner you realize critical thinking means nothing to a huge group of people the better. Arguments don't form opinions, they are formed after the fact to justify them. Social pressures (what do my friends think?) & intuitions inform opinions.
EDIT: If this is interesting, checkout The Righteous Mind by Jonathan Haidt. Its where i stole most of this from. Theres also other related stuf in behavioral econ & psychology - Thinking Fast & Slow by Daniel Kahneman, Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely. Its the tip of an iceberg
Not a book, but great resource to vet out a business plan: Lean Canvas
Books:
Lean Startup for sure, as it relates to small, lifestyle or scalable business. Zero to One is a phenomenal book by one of the Paypal Founders, but is geared a bit to tech startups. E-Myth if you are starting more of a small business, as opposed to tech startup.
"You only ever experience two emotions: euphoria and terror. And I find that lack of sleep enhances them both.”
― Ben Horowitz
Excited for you venturing into your own business! Kick ass!
This book has been suggested a few times so I finally got around to reading it. I think it has some good information in it. I'm only about halfway through it, but I like it so far.
Time Management for System Administrators
Other books would be any of the social books like "How to influence people", "7 healthy habits..." Etc.
I haven't read this one yet, but It has been suggested to me if you plan to go more into management/leadership Start with Why
Other books that have I have ear marked due to being mentioned:
Also, do a search for "Books for IT Professionals" to find a lot of other suggestions.
I am about to fall asleep but wanted to link you to old post of mine where I discuss this. I am a former skeptical nihilist atheist myself. It isn't just a miserable philosophy (though I wasn't really all that miserable as one), but it is utterly anti-intellectual and just flat wrong. Even atheist philosopher Thomas Nagel says so. But it takes a lot of reading, study, prayer, and grace for these truths to reveal themselves to you. Please be patient and trust in him.
I would recommend Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions. It's not as technical as some of the other recommendations on this thread but it's very interesting and introduces you to a lot of applications of CS theory in real life.
So, almost everyone here says you should not renegotiate. I am going to disagree with that and say you never lose anything by negotiating, unless you do it very, very wrong.
Couple points:
On how to actually phrase this: I like your approach, and would say being honest is usually good policy. When you get the call with their offer, you can say something like: "Thanks for the offer. Based on the interview process and research I've done, I really think I'd enjoy working with the team, <more reasons why you like company >. I really appreciate your offer of X. However, upon doing further research on the salaries among my peers, it seems top companies in this area are paying between <your new range, low end ~+20% of their offer>". And then you shut up and wait for their response. Couple things can happen:
Couple points on how to do the negotiation:
Good luck!
Source: Analytics team manager, hired several people over the years and been in your position more than once. I never once lost the offer because of negotiation. I got paid much less than my peers at the same company because I didn't negotiate several times.
Also, if you're curious about the topic, I'd recommend a book called Never split the difference. Explains a lot of negotiation dynamics in great detail, but gives very applicable tips
there is an excellent book called peopleware that goes into lots of management fads, check it out, you might just like it.
People are incredibly good at justifying their beliefs and actions.
People are masters of saying, I'm not X, I'm just X-1. "I'm not an alcoholic; I'm just a guy who likes a fifth of scotch with breakfast." "I'm not a wife beater; that bitch just needs to learn some respect." "I'm not a sexist, I just think neuroscience proves men are better."
The reasoning starts something like this: A "racist" is a monster, and I'm not a monster, so I'm not racist. And if I'm not a racist, then there must be some other reason why I believe these things. Maybe I'll claim to hate everyone equally. Maybe I'll rely on religion. Maybe I'll say I truly believe in separate but equal.
There's a reason racist forums spend so much time posting about "evidence" that supports their beliefs. They feel that if they can "prove" it, then they're just realists, not racists. (Conversely, you'll notice that /r/biology doesn't spend an inordinate amount of time posting evidence that genes are the main mode of inheritance. They believe it, but they're don't need to be defensive about it.)
So, yeah, there might be some people on there who think of themselves as "racist", but I'm guessing most of them would say they are not.
If you want to learn more about how we trick ourselves about our beliefs, I would recommend The Unpersuadables and Thinking, Fast and Slow.
> I have a theory that your brain tries to "automate" processes and to do them subconsciously when it feels confident enough about it.
You should read the book Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman - excellent read that I would highly recommend. I think you'd find the book interesting, and it discusses this topic in depth.
I try to shut off the hysterics as much as possible. NEVER watch tv news and especially none of the dedicated news channels.
Also read and think about things like this book.
https://www.amazon.com/Factfulness-Reasons-World-Things-Better/dp/1250107814/
In The E-myth Revisited, Michael Gerber paraphrased a quote from Gen. George Patton. It has stuck with me for many years after having read the book.
>The comfort zone makes cowards of us all.
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> I think the primary problem is that the business is "me" and I'm having a difficult time transitioning from a "freelancer" to a "business" in a way that still keeps me flush with reliable income.
Read The E-Myth Revisited.
The first chapter or so will resonate with you deeply as the whole book is about turning your business into an actual business that can function without you so you can get your life back.
Recommended reading
Here is my suggested reading list for anyone who ever wants to be a small business owner. I like audiobooks but you can get some of these in print also.
Entrepreneur Mindset
There are several books that talk about the entrepreneur mindset. “Rich Dad Poor Dad” was one of the first that I had encountered. “Four Hour Work Week” is a popular one among young adults and lazy millennials now. But I think this one below sums it up in a relatively fast and easy way. To me there is nothing wrong in this book, but in my opinion it’s a little incomplete and inaccurate and won’t work for some people. It doesn’t say how to switch lanes, or say that you can be in two lanes at the same time. Still, it should be required reading for anyone remotely interested in business. It’s at the top of my list because the correct mindset is required before anyone can think about actually doing business.
http://www.audible.com/pd/Business/The-Millionaire-Fastlane-Crack-the-Code-to-Wealth-and-Live-Rich-for-a-Lifetime-Audiobook/B0143BEDUO
Business and Marketing
These two combined are basically an MBA in a box and then some. They are long audiobooks that go over the lessons of an MBA program, and the first one also covers a lot of life hacking and mind hacking theories such as how to stay motivated etc. Some of this stuff is very interesting, some if it is boring to slog through. But knowing what is in here will have you well versed to communicate about business at a high level. I have listened to both several times, I keep coming back because it’s a lot and I can’t learn it all at once.
https://www.amazon.com/Personal-MBA-Master-Art-Business/dp/1591845572
http://www.audible.com/pd/Business/Critical-Business-Skills-for-Success-Audiobook/B00UY842O8
The E Myth series basically describes how many entrepreneurs fail to implement systems in their business. It has a couple other important business concepts and is geared mainly for beginning entrepreneurs or those who have not yet studied a lot about business at a high level.
http://www.audible.com/pd/Business/The-E-Myth-Revisited-Audiobook/B002V1LGZE
Mike Michalowicz, Solid principles, Some are regurgitations of Seth Godin and E-Myth, but some are original and insightful. Not very efficient in delivery of material, but I would highly recommend.
https://www.audible.com/pd/Business/The-Toilet-Paper-Entrepreneur-Audiobook/B00FKCI3I4
https://www.audible.com/pd/Business/The-Pumpkin-Plan-Audiobook/B008CHN41K
https://www.audible.com/pd/Business/Profit-First-Audiobook/B06X15WX5B
In the world of marketing, Seth Godin is well known as a forward thinker. He has a new perspective of thinking about marketing in the internet age.
Seth Godin Startup School. This is a series of 15 short podcasts, maybe 15 to 20 minutes long each. It’s a good cliff notes version of a lot of his other books.
https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/seth-godins-startup-school/id566985370
http://www.audible.com/pd/Business/Purple-Cow-Audiobook/B002V0QOJS
http://www.audible.com/pd/Business/All-Marketers-Are-Liars-Audiobook/B002V1NIMI
Gary Vaynerchuk is well known in online entrepreneur forums, especially with a younger audience. He is interesting to listen to and talks at a basic level mostly about social media marketing.
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLfA33-E9P7FC0AoARnMLvgFgESJe4_Ngs
This is a link about fashion, but it could just as easily be about restaurants or any other business. As you read it, substitute the product for your product or widgets and it makes sense.
https://moz.com/ugc/how-to-build-a-great-online-fashion-brand-34-things-that-really-amazing-fashion-retailers-do
It’s probably not necessary to read this whole book, but it’s widely referenced and it’s important to understand the theory. This guy basically coined the phrase “Lean Startup” to describe businesses that start small and apply the scientific method to determine which direction to grow. Not to be confused with LEAN Manufacturing methodology made famous by Toyota, but follows similar principles.
https://www.amazon.com/Lean-Startup-Entrepreneurs-Continuous-Innovation/dp/0307887898
There are a lot of great posts in reddit. There are a lot of crappy ones too. But worth trolling.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Entrepreneur/
https://www.reddit.com/r/smallbusiness/
https://www.reddit.com/r/restaurateur/ (yes it’s spelled wrong)
For example, this post basically has a step by step guide to start a small business.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Entrepreneur/comments/5lfy6n/4_years_ago_i_wrote_a_case_study_on_reddit_on_my/
Other links
21 Lessons From Jeff Bezos’ Annual Letters To Shareholders
https://www.cbinsights.com/research/bezos-amazon-shareholder-letters/#2000
E Commerce, Design, Online Marketing
This guy has a very interesting perspective on display tactics.
https://www.nickkolenda.com/
A good source for tactics. Also offers one of the better wordpress themes
https://thrivethemes.com/6-brain-hacks/
These guys offer great information and insight in their podcast.
https://ecomcrew.com/episode-1-welcome-to-the-ecom-crew-podcast/
Landing Page Optimization
Important for all businesses even offline, for example with restaurants these principles could help for menu design or digital signage, for other businesses this knowledge can help with advertising layouts etc.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/5-brand-strategies-uniquely-position-your-ecommerce-above-bhardwaj
https://blog.hubspot.com/marketing/7-landing-page-design-tips
https://blog.kissmetrics.com/landing-page-design-infographic/
https://moz.com/ugc/how-to-build-a-great-online-fashion-brand-34-things-that-really-amazing-fashion-retailers-do
https://thrivethemes.com/6-brain-hacks/
This book discusses apps, especially networking apps like Uber.
https://www.audible.com/pd/Business/Platform-Revolution-Audiobook/B01DDX7MJ2
Also
http://andrewchen.co/marketplace-startups-best-essays/
A good page of links
http://www.themissionmarketer.com/digital-marketing-resources/
For Restaurants
http://www.restaurantowner.com
Very valuable stuff here. Business plan templates, etc. $30 a month for a subscription but well worth it if you are starting or running a restaurant.
https://www.restaurantmastering.com
http://www.typsy.com
Not worth the paid membership yet, but it's growing. And you can get a free trial for like a week and binge watch everything.
Dealing with delivery aggregators
https://www.reddit.com/r/restaurateur/comments/76sd1i/uber_eats_what_percentage_you_paying_em_anyone/
Edit: spacing
Stratfor, the list that he is on, is a "CIA Front".
The CEO is George Friedman who appears to be the author of one of the books that he's on the list for. Is this just a book ordering list?
https://www.amazon.com/Next-100-Years-Forecast-Century/dp/0767923057
This article calls it Pentagon consulting firm: http://journal-neo.org/2015/02/19/the-hilarity-of-george-soros-in-munich/
More mention as a CIA front:
http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/leaked-memo-shows-soros-ngos-payed-macedonian-students-1500-come-regime-change-ideas/ri7179
You have to practice. Communication is a subconscious skill. You can't consciously plan your way through an entire conversation because there isn't enough time. It's possible to think of a few things that are good conversation starters, but that's about it.
In order to train any subconscious skill, you have to practice. When you practice your brain starts by trying to make the neural connections necessary to create the movement you want. At first the brain uses a lot of neurons. After more practice the brain finds more efficient ways of creating the movement and uses less neurons. That's how musicians look like they can effortlessly play an instrument the more they practice.
The biggest mistake people make about communication is that they don't approach learning it like they would approach learning a new sport or musical instrument. That's why nerds who like to be analytical about everything suck at communicating, because you have to learn communication by practice; the same way you learn a sport, which is another thing nerds suck at. You can't ride a bike by thinking every time before you move the pedals or handles. You can't make your way through a conversation that way either for the same reason - there's no time.
Practice keeping eye contact and saying what's on your mind without any hesitation. You'll find that after a few conversations you'll be able to do this more easily because your brain has gotten used to the skills. A good rule of thumb is to be yourself, but if you happen to be an asshole, you'll have to change.
If you can't find the courage to talk to random people right away, then start small. Talk to people you've been avoiding, like neighbors, coworkers, or classmates. Come up with a few prepared conversations and see what happens. If things don't go too well, know that you won't be that nervous and awkward during the next talk.
The neuroscience in this comment comes from The Brain That Changes Itself by Norman Doidge, and Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
If you want to learn more about this I suggest reading Thinking fast and slow by Daniel Kahneman.
It really depends on what niche you're looking on covering. It's difficult, I feel, to brush up on "infosec" to any level of practical proficiency without focusing on a few subsets. Based on your interests, I would recommend the following books.
General Hacking:
Hacking Exposed
The Art of Exploitation
The Art of Deception
Intrusion Detection / Incident Response:
Network Flow Analysis
The Tao of Network Security Monitoring
Practical Intrusion Analysis
Real Digital Forensics
Reverse Engineering:
Reversing: Secrets of Reverse Engineering
The Ida Pro Book
Malware Analyst Cookbook
Malware Forensics
Digital Forensics:
File System Forensic Analysis
Windows Forensic Analysis
Real Digital Forensics
The Rootkit Arsenal
Hope this helps. If you're a University student, you might have access to Safari Books Online, which has access to almost all of these books, and more. You can also purchase a personal subscription for like $23 a month. It's a bit pricey, but they have an awesome library of technical books.
Stratfor founder George Friedman wrote a book - the Next 100 Years. In it he predicts that the three superpowers of the 22nd century will be Poland, Japan and Turkey.
(I would note the immigration policies of two of those countries...)
https://www.amazon.ca/Next-100-Years-Forecast-Century/dp/0767923057
I run a small IT shop with about 25 repeat customers. All but 4 are business clients, I do very little residential (with the exception of the home PCs of some of my business owner clients). My business has two parts: managed services and break fix. Managed services are contracted, and basically I guarantee "x" level of uptime for the client per month. For that, I bill about 50 bucks per PC per month, and anywhere between $250 and $300 per month per server. Break/fix services - I offer onsite or remote support, I emphasize remote where possible (much cheaper for all involved and less overhead for me). Break/fix is billed hourly and/or could be a project rate.
Servers and business clients - generally if I come in your door (whether remotely or physically) I'm on the clock, and therefore diagnosis and repair are included in the service call. Its expected that you'll spend time researching a problem to arrive at a fix. That's called due diligence and good customers aren't afraid to pay for it. Just don't be blatantly googling and saying things like "No shit!" and "uh oh, really?"
Three big things to keep in mind:
And finally: Don't be afraid to fire a customer.
Former virtual assistant here wanting to put in my two cents from the internal side.
>Think of a task you need to do for your business, but you don’t have the time, or the knowledge on how to properly execute it.
Yes and no. You should have a general idea of how the task should be done.
For example, if you have no idea how to write a blog post, you should make an attempt to learn the basics of how to write a blog post before hiring someone to do it for you.
That way, you know the type of voice you're going for, what type of content your business puts out (authority/expert type? gathering info and presenting it? opinion piece?), the format, and relay that information to your contractor.
You can't delegate it if you don't know what you're looking for. You also won't know if the end product will be effective.
You don't need to know how to do it exactly or even how to execute it, but you should know the basics of what you're asking for.
> I have seen many freelancers in the Philippines charging up to US$50 per hour to manage an Instagram account. That’s a lot of money for such a task. Try to figure out what is the hourly rate in the country where you are hiring... This will help you to estimate the budget you can allocate on a task.
I don't get out of bed for less than $45/hour as a virtual assistant and a lot of people will balk at that price.
Here's what my former clients got at $45/hour:
Or, you can pay someone in India $10/hour to schedule your Instagram account, but good luck getting that VA to go above and beyond at that rate.
>Use a "hidden word"
On my end, when applications have these "hidden word" things, it screams inefficiency to me. You are REALLY going to base my ability to perform my tasks on whether I can I spy with my little eye a single word in your wall of text?
Here's a more accurate way to do it:
Here's an example: I recently hired a project manager/assistant to keep me on task with my clients. My clients text/email/call/etc. and I needed someone to organize and schedule my tasks out through Asana (a project management type of app) in an organized fashion because it's so tedious to do it myself.
I asked the following two questions:
That being said, this advice will not work for everyone.
Your ability to teach, delegate, or pay, will impact your relationship with your virtual assistant. If you have money but no time, go high-end and hire an expert VA at $35/hour or higher.
If you have time but no money, hire an entry-level/foreign assistant and take the time to train them.
I'm currently transitioning out of being a VA to start a digital marketing agency. I am now hiring my own team of virtual assistants to help me. Here's what I've learned from the hiring end:
A lot of businesses fail in hiring because they want to hire someone to solve a problem they can't solve themselves. $10/hour virtual assistants are ENTRY LEVEL and will need a lot of hand-holding and training. You can absolutely go this route if your budget is low or you have a lot of time to train (or have processes at the ready) but in my experience, few business owners have been organized or patient enough to train someone entry-level.
Within 6 months, they usually fire the entry-level assistant in favor of a more high-end one.
The other thing is... if you got a "good one" who can handle their own at the lower rate, get ready to have people try to snatch your assistant for $12/hour or $15/hour or be forced to match a competitor's rate.
However, what isn't replaceable and what is difficult to teach is culture and work ethic.
I personally work with entry-level VA's due to lack of budget (I have more time than money) - but I hire VA's whose visions and lifestyles align with mine.
For example, I am starting a digital marketing agency. I DO NOT want to hire entry-level virtual assistants who are digital marketer wannabes because they'll just work for me for a few months, gut me for all my knowledge, and take what they learned from me to compete with me.
Fuck that.
Instead, I hire people who have a full-time job, or children, or family obligations, and are seeking "side income" NOT full-time hours. They are happy with entry-level $15-$25/hour pay and they have no intentions to eventually compete. I've noticed they're usually easier to work with because they're not constantly looking for more/higher-paying clients and they aren't burnt out from the industry.
Ultimately, I am working with a niche group of people (spiritualists, cannabis entrepreneurs, sexual empowerment coaches, zero waste/environmental coaches, etc.) so the people I hire MUST have a current interest in those subjects. I can freakin pay for a $29 Instagram course in Udemy or give them my Skillshare login to teach them Instagram but I can't teach them to care about our clients.
(Note: I'm not saying hire people who are absolute newbies with no experience. You can hire a mom who has a huge Instagram following to manage your Instagram account for $15/hour and then send her to take a Udemy course to refine her marketing skills in Instagram. You can hire a college student who wants to be a scientist but codes websites on the side, to help you manage your clients' Wordpress websites).
I know this was super long-winded... Just wanted to give a perspective from a former virtual assistant who now works with virtual assistants.
The key being successful in the cake business actually has little to do with the ability to make cakes. The problem is that bakers often times make terrible business people. Making a cake here and there is great, but does your mom have the ability to manage inventory, follow-up with customers, keep costs down, keep good financial records, market her product well, etc.?
There is a great book you and her should both read, it's called the E-Myth. After reading it then decide whether you should move forward with a cake business.
Teaching people that they can't just tell someone's character is not actually easy. I'm fascinated with books like Thinking, Fast and Slow and Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me). But getting normal people to entertain these arguments that our intuition isn't really all that great, that we really can't just know someone's character from their demeanor, is difficult as hell.
People are not receptive to the notion that their intuition is biased or can be manipulated, or that they subconsciously favor tall, good-looking people with good hair, or people with certain accents, etc. Our whole culture is one long celebration of intuition and gut feeling. People love to think they can "just tell," and that leaves them open to all kinds of manipulation.
While it's not directly CRE related, I like Never Split the Difference by Chris Voss. It's a hostage negotiator's take on human behavior and how to capitalize on the innate tendencies of people under pressure. Kind of a cross between the Netflix series Mindhunter and a sales book. Definitely fun to read if you're in to criminal history, but also useful for the give-and-take of CRE deals.
Nudge by Thaler (Nobel Prize in Economics) & Sunstein
A book which is unquestionably about Economics and Public Policy
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I haven't read it yet but it's on my list:
Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics also by Thaler
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Thinking Fast & Slow by Kahneman (Nobel Prize in Economics)
Not strictly about economics but Kahneman essentially created the field of "Behavioral Economics" and the implications for his theories about decision making bias are extensive in Economics. In many ways Kahneman and Tverski's work is the foundation of Thaler's in Nudge.
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Also:
Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely
If you can't tell I like the Behavioral Econmics books...
Code: The Hidden Language of Computer Hardware and Software
The Mythical Man-Month
Peopleware: Productive Projects and Teams
Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid
The Pragmatic Programmer: From Journeyman to Master
Coders at Work: Reflections on the Craft of Programming
black swan talks about this. it's a sliding scale. if you are born you are x% likely to make it to be 1. if you make it to 1 you are x% likely to make it to 5. and so on.
good read
My recommended reading list includes One Up on Wall Street, Fail-Safe Investing, The Black Swan, How an Economy Grows and Why It Crashes, and Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds. The first book talks about picking individual stocks based on what you already know, the second about structuring a portfolio for growth while still playing defense, the third about common fallacies and hubris, the fourth about basic economics, and the fifth about irrational behavior.
If your money is sitting in a US bank account, then you're making a 100% bet on the future of the US dollar. At a minimum, diversify your currency holdings by buying sovereign and high-grade corporate debt in countries with strong currencies.
Not really. It's popular because it's so easy. Check out some of Kevin Mitnick's stuff if you're at all serious about this opinion. Dude literally wrote the book on how easy Social Engineering is in the modern age. Example cited quote from his Wikipedia:
> At age 12, Mitnick used social engineering and dumpster diving to bypass the punch card system used in the Los Angeles bus system. [...] Social engineering later became his primary method of obtaining information, including usernames and passwords and modem phone numbers.
Oh, he also hacked a TON of analog systems. Like John Draper who hacked phone systems with a whistle from a box of Captain Crunch. Switching to digital systems can help raise the barrier to hacking above this low bar.
I think you should do some more looking into your statements, because your vague explanations are far outnumbered by anecdotal evidence stating otherwise.
Rule # 1 - DO NOT HAVE A PARTNER.
TLDR - We failed due to a lack of trust between partners that grew over time and I was going through a divorce and emotionally checked out of the business. (I was in charge of all production...ie. when I checked out, shit fell apart)
Here's what we did to scale from $120K the first year to $1.2 mil in 18 months (10x growth).
We hosted all client sites through 2 reseller accounts with Hostgator and Godaddy. Hosting revenue pays the light bill and cable bills. Plus, your contractors only need to know how to do everything in 2 Cpanels. It's more efficient and profitable.
Outsource: ALL design. Wireframes in-house.
Outsource: Hosting setup, domain pointing, CMS/Wordpress installation, theme installation
Outsource: Email marketing. You define strategy and design etc. but the build and automation is all outsourced.
Outsource: Bookkeeping. Automate everything using IFTTT and Freshbooks. Automate as much as you can.
Outsource: All Local SEO - We used LocalOxygen.com to scale production 10x.
Outsource: All social posting. Give the workers access to your posting software and let them post that shit. You do the strategy, they do the execution.
Outsource: Adwords management. Find a certified overseas crew to access your MCC and again, talk to them about how you want the accounts managed.
Outsource:Remarketing/retargeting - Overseas Adroll team or GDN team. You'll have no problem finding teams that know more than yourself overseas at reasonable rates.
Hire a part time VA (Virtual Assistant) for $3.00/hour and have her handle your email, send out client intake forms, invoice reminders, all reporting that isn't automated. After 3 months, this person can basically serve as your remote office manager for $4.00/hour from Peru,Greece or the Philippines.
When/if hiring overseas workers, look for countries with a favorable exchange rate and a bad economy + strong English presence. They must be available during US business hours and have a microphone and camera for face time chats throughout the week. https://Upwork.com and https://www.onlinejobs.ph (we actually bought mics and cameras for those who did not have them.)
We handled SEO in-house and had a small overseas team to help with link building.
90% of my time as founder was spent on project management and helping sales people understand this stuff so they could sell it better. You can find competent workers all over the world for under $10/hour. We used Odesk/Upwork and took the time to build a solid base of loyal contractors. We trained our contractors to do the work the way we wanted it done. I was paying several people in Pakistan full-time @ $38/week or $.96/hr) to do link building. Profile creation etc. etc. I simply made a video explaining what I wanted them to execute on and how to do it and they went off and did it.
We had writers in Isreal (with Masters Degrees) paying the $15/hour to write great content.
If I got back into the game again, as an owner, I would literally outsource 99% of the work. Some to overseas and probably the SEO to a US based company. The rest of my time would be selling. I'll never work IN an SEO company again knowing what I know now...so much easier to train people on systems and let them execute. This way I get to stay working ON the business, not in it.
Remember taxes take 39% roughly.
Number 1 lesson - Find a great sales person who is wide but not deep in their understanding and who is also great at establishing rapport , then you go along with them on the sales call. You're the credibillity. Rapport + Credibility = Trust = Signed Contract
Lesson 2 Create documented processes and train others on how to execute.
Lesson 3 As quickly as possible put yourself in a spot where you are able to work ON the business and not IN it. If you do not do this then the business is owning you.
Lesson 4 Read the E-Myth - https://www.amazon.com/Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses-About/dp/0887307280
Lesson 5 - Bask in 80%-85% margins and pay yourself well. Also bonus your contractors often and healthily ($20-$50 bonus every two weeks) and they'll never leave.
Hope this helps...
Daniel Kahnenman talks about this in his new book, that there's a remembering self and an experiencing self in terms of pain experiences.
TED Talk
Book
Humans are not intuitively good at probability and statistics, because of numerous cognitive biases. -Thinking: Fast & Slow
Lähteeksi on mainittu Hans Roslingin tuore kirja Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World--and Why Things Are Better Than You Think
Thanks! There's a great book on negotiating jobs and other important things I'd really suggest you read right now. It will give you a lot of tools for advocating for yourself. It was written by an FBI hostage negotiator who inspire the Denzel Washington movies proof of life and others. It's a great book and will help you not settle but get what you want out of any work transaction.
http://www.amazon.com/Never-Split-Difference-Negotiating-Depended/dp/0062407805?ie=UTF8&amp;psc=1&amp;redirect=true&amp;ref_=oh_aui_detailpage_o00_s00
Practice. Lots of practice. If you go into a negotiation not willing to lose it all, you've already lost.
Interview for jobs. You should always be looking.
Making friend and influencing people is good.
Also: Never Split the Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It https://www.amazon.com/dp/0062407805/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_tWsWBbKWP1BB7
People have always been treated like shit, though. As I understand it, what's changed is our exposure. With 24/7 media/internet, we're just seeing things we wouldn't have seen before. They were still happening before. We just didn't see them. It's also much easier to focus on specific types of discourse and information and that can make it seem like such information is increasing in amount. It's not. We're just exposing ourselves to more of it. If I started following r/Malta, it'd be tempting in a couple months to slide into the thinking that shit is "suddenly" heading south there. All the bad stories. All the abuses. In reality, it was always there because people are dicks regardless. Collectively, from what I understand, though, things are overall getting better in a lot of ways. I don't know how much bias is in it, but someone recommended the book Factfulness the other day. Haven't ordered it yet, but I'm going to because personally I'd like a little positivity in my geopolitical forecasts for once.
Algoriths to Live By by Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths. Written for the lay person so very accessible, by a brilliant cognitive scientist at Princeton (though at Berkeley when the book was written).
Vision by David Marr. One of the first and most important books that anyone interested in cognition and computation will ever read. Absolute must if you want to understand why the field began looking at the mind more or less like a computer.
As you realize becoming great at social skills is just like training any other skill. Realizing you can train it will allow you to build the skill stronger than others who stumble into it. So many will say you can't get better or amazing by reading in a chair. They're right. Read a little, apply a lot, take notes, then review what you did right and what you did wrong, repeat. Get a mentor or training buddy if you can, it accelerates learning, because we can't see ourselves the same as those outside us can. Make a regimen to go out, greet and meet people every day. Or at least three times a week minimum, make it a habit.
I can tell you that I've been in customer service and sales jobs, they taught me nothing because my skills were garbage and sub-par. So I didn't have a paddle for my raft in the world of social interaction. All I got was "people get irritated if I cold approach or try to sell them. Or worse I have to dump mountains of information to make them feel safe." So after studying for the better part of a decade, here's some points that got me to the basics and more advanced subjects. With the basics under your belt, then a job or daily practice will get you understanding and results.
First, learn how to steady yourself mentally, breathing exercise here. Breathing is important as we seem to be learning your heart rate and beat pattern determine more about our emotions than we'd like to admit.
Second, Accept and love yourself, (both those terms may be undefined or wishy-washy to you at the moment, defining them is part of the journey.) Because you can only accept and love others the way you apply it to yourself first.
Third, pick up and read the charisma myth. It has habits/meditations that will be a practice you use every day. I'd say a basic understanding will happen after applying them over three months. Never stop practicing these basics, they are your fundamentals. They determine your body language. The difference between a romantic gaze and a creepy stare is context of the meeting and body language, especially in the eyes.
Sales or cold approach networking will do the same for practice. If you do sales or meeting new people, it is a negotiation. You're trying to trade "value" (safety + an emotion). So if you figure out how to make yourself feel emotion, then inspire emotion in others, mutual agreements happen. Start with Why is a good reference. Here is a summary video. Chris Voss will help you find out that you don't tap into people rationally, you tap people emotionally, big think summary video. Or the full book treatment, Never Split the Difference. The supporting book for Chris Voss' position can be helped by reading Start With No
For training habits and understanding how we execute behaviors, Thinking, Fast and Slow
For dealing with hard arguments and heavy topics both Nonviolent Communication and Difficult Conversations: How to Discuss What Matters Most
Learning what listening is, instead of "hearing" people. Just Listen: Discover the Secret to Getting Through to Absolutely Anyone is a good book for that. This is touched on in Never Split the Difference and in the Charisma Myth because true listening, making the person you are speaking with feel "listened to and understood" is most of what makes a charismatic person work.
Here are my nominations:
I haven't read them all through but have started on the Time Management book. So far so good.
Not an affiliate link btw
E-myth Revisited
Problem gambling has nothing to do with being stupid. Human decision making just doesn't work like that: I'll point you to one of the better cognitive science/behavioral economics books to come out recently if you're really interested in understanding more how people actually make decisions, or if that's too long, perhaps a short TED talk to whet your appetite?
The gambling industry employes cognitive science findings to entrap people. You can't really understand the problem with gambling until you understand our biases and how limited our decision making ability really is.
Problem gambling affects all socio-economic classes, but those of us with more money:
Once you understand behavioral economics and the place of gambling in the world, it's much harder to just leave it alone. That's why we have the laws we do.
On the other hand, all of that is somewhat unimportant to the discussion at hand. ;-) The point is we're attempting to enforce laws created for the sole reason that rich people don't like having to deal with poor people hanging around in public places, while not enforcing rules that demonstrably positively affect the economic situation of poor people.
(edit: Added ego depletion w/ citation)
Thinking Fast and Slow
Shiller and Akerloft have a book on behavioral macro that I haven't read but have heard mentioned.
If you want to learn about the other 99 cognitive biases people are unwittingly carrying around (perhaps you, too), check out Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.
you don't need a business school to experience the core of this class ...
Here's a link to Steve Blank's HBR article on The Lean Startup. Also a series of free lectures that Steve Blank put up on Udacity, called "How to Build a Startup" a course that over 500,000 people have viewed. These lectures are supported by a book that Steve Blank wrote with Bob Dorf called The Startup Owners Manual, as well as a best selling business book by Alexander Osterwalder called Business Model Generation. You may also want to see Alexander's other book, Value Proposition Design for more input/insight.
The Art of Deception by Kevin Mitnick is what first got me looking into the subject.
I bought Chris Voss's book Never Split the Difference after his AMA. (On mobile, will add links later). He recommends a pricing strategy where you set your top price, start with a low bid and make diminishing increases to achieve it - 65% of top line, then 85%, 95%, then 100%. The final number should not be a nice round number, it should sound odd. So for example, if you want to pay $200 for something, offer $130, 170, 190, $197.26
Edit: Links added
It's tough to offer any kind of advice for your situation because you talk in a lot of generalities.
However, my wife and I have struggled quite a bit over the last few years and it sucks. I feel like things are getting better, but there are always mis-steps even on the up-swing.
If your wive really has checked out, there's not much you can do. It takes two to make a couple.
However. You can work on yourself. In so doing, you might find that it helps your relationship. Or it might not. But even if your relationship falls apart, you will be in a much better space to cope with that and move on -- as difficult as it seems right now.
So, here's my suggestions ... things that I have been doing and reading over the last couple of years that have really helped me.
https://www.headspace.com/
http://stronglifts.com/
http://altshiftdiet.com/
https://www.amazon.com/How-Talk-Kids-Will-Listen/dp/1451663889/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1474568476&amp;sr=1-1&amp;keywords=how+to+talk+so+kids+will+listen+%26+listen+so+kids+will+talk
https://www.amazon.com/People-Skills-Yourself-Resolve-Conflicts/dp/067162248X
https://np.reddit.com/r/sexover30/comments/538uat/mismatched_couples/d7r5hys
https://www.amazon.com/Never-Split-Difference-Negotiating-Depended/dp/0062407805/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1474568493&amp;sr=1-1&amp;keywords=chris+voss
http://www.amazon.com/Come-You-Are-Surprising-Transform/dp/1476762090/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1436544375&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=come+as+you+are
Anyway, those are my suggestions and have helped me immensely. Take what you think will work for you. Ignore the rest.
Best of luck!
Awesome, thanks for waiting, I appreciate it. First off, I am neither a pastor nor classically trained in any way regarding this stuff, just another guy searching for the truth (although I bet I'm a little older so maybe I have been through some of the questions you have).
Before I jump in, I want to kind of set the stage a bit, if you don't mind. First, what does it mean to be a Christian or to be a follower of Jesus? Does it mean believing in a worldwide flood? Does it mean believing in a Young Earth Creation? Does it mean we can't believe in evolution? I think you will find that Christianity tolerates a wide variety of viewpoints, even though specific denominations and adherents may not. There are some things that are pretty central to Christianity, what we might call Mere Christianity, which falls along the lines of the Apostle's Creed. Whenever you hear critiques of Christianity, it is nice to go back to this foundational belief set and see if the critiques actually chip away at the bedrock (which is expressed in the creed) or just at the periphery. I find that they rarely do.
Second, when we look at stories written in the Bible, I want to state that it is wrong to just pick and choose what to believe but it is right to pick a consistent model of interpretation and apply it. This means that I don't have to take things literally (like the "trees clapping their hands" when alluding leaves brushing together in the wind) but I do have to be consistent. We should also read the Bible with the genre of each book in mind. Obviously the poetry of Songs of Solomon should be treated differently from a letter of Paul or a book of laws like Deuteronomy.
Let me try now and respond to some of your specific problems.
> However many Creationists say that I have to believe in a literal interpretation
As William Lane Craig says, the creation story allows for "all manner of interpretation". Even the great church fathers like St Augustine discussed how the world possessed potencies created by God that would unravel over time. The Catholic Church has explicitly said "Evolution in nature is not inconsistent with the notion of creation". So, I think this is an example of something that is on the periphery. Believing in evolution (or not) isn't central to being a Christian. The only part of evolution that would be unacceptable to the Christian would be that it is wholly unguided which is a metaphysical questions which Science, in principle, could not discern.
> Noah's ark
There are a lot of ways to address this. Are you open to the existence of miracles? Did the writer of Genesis mean the whole world or the known world? Are there far fewer "kinds" of animals (which Genesis refers to) rather than "species"? Is the believer committed to a global flood and not just a flood of the known world? I think answers to these questions invite a number of responses that give Christians a broad spectrum of beliefs.
> Evolution
As I mentioned before, Theistic Evolution is a commonly accepted belief. I happen to think that evolution is both wildly improbable and did happen. I believe it was guided or superintended by God.
> God is omni benevolent, omnipotent and omniscent then how can evil be allowed
This is a really big question to which there are several responses, all of which combined, IMHO, make a pretty strong case that we would actually expect there to be evil. The first and foremost response is the Free Will defense. It wouldn't do justice to the problem for me to try and rehash the arguments here, so I have linked to another place where I have discussed this issue and I am happy to discuss further if you follow up with more questions.
> Why is it that a woman is "unclean" for longer if they have a baby girl than if they have a baby boy? That seems a bit sexist to me.
I don't know, but I generally believe that the law of the OT was created to allow a society to survive. Because of Free Will, mankind had to progress. We learned. We weren't ready for everything all at once. This is one of the areas where I struggle the most (I have 3 daughters). If anything, it pushes my position on Biblical Inerrancy. And even if I had to abandon that doctrine, it wouldn't mean that I couldn't still come to believe in Mere Christianity.
> science and logic seem to be so in favour of atheism
Here is where I am confused. I have found Christian Theism to be eminently more consistent with the data of experience and our logical understanding than atheism and naturalism. On Atheism there is ultimately no foundation, everything is just a giant brute fact. The Universe just exists for no reason at all. IMHO, Atheism and Naturalism are permeated with philosophically undercutting problems.
If you get a chance, I would highly recommend you read two things, one by a Christian philosopher and one by an atheist philosopher. I would be happy to purchase you a copy of the latter's book if you cannot afford it yourself. The first is available in PDF and is Alvin Plantinga's Evolutionary Argument Against Naturalism which shows that if Naturalism and Atheism are true, one cannot rationally believe in them, because one must admit that our mental faculties are selected for survivability and not truth. The second is a stunning book by the widely regarded atheist thinker Thomas Nagel called Mind & Cosmos: Why the Materialist Neo-Darwinian Conception of Reality is Almost Certainly False. Before you do anything else, I would read these two books, really dig down and spend some time with them, looking up terms and making sure you understand the arguments. I think you will find, like I did, that the atheist, naturalist philosophical stance is only superficially superior, and that there are great, unworked faults that lie at the center of a matter-first model of philosophy.
> when I pray, I feel nothing
I'm right there with you bud. I don't recall ever feeling the direct presence of God when praying. I feel God mostly in his discipline of me. Hebrews 12:16 "because the Lord disciplines the one he loves, and he chastens everyone he accepts as his son."
My belief in God is only loosely supported on what most people could call an experiential event. I believe in God with all my heart, soul, strength and mind. I am just straight up convinced.
Please feel free to ask any more questions you might have!
This mentions The Practice of Network and System Administration, and how it could do with an update; that would be here, in The Practice of Cloud System Administration, which as I understand is effectively the 'replacement' book, at least for an approach more suited to modern infrastructure.
Here are my observations.
I started coming to this subreddit because I had a lot of questions after listening to Serial. I thought between this sub and the others I had found SPO and Undisclosed, I would get some satisfactory answers, some keen insights. I posted some questions on all three subs. On SPO, most my posts seem to disappear into oblivion. On Undisclosed, my questions were seen as hostile or stirring the pot or something. On this one, it's 50-50.
After listening to Serial, I leaned toward Adnan being innocent but had some grave doubts, some questions that I needed clarified, so I would guess I am in the 2b category.
In the course of my discussions here and reading through the trial transcripts, the MPIA file, and lots of other documents (not all by any means), many of my original questions have been answered and I no longer consider Adnan a principle suspect in the death of Hae Lee. However, I am open to the possibility that he's guilty and have no reason to be committed to his innocence. If he's guilty, then he is where he ought to be.
I think a major difference between the two groups that I see is that the guilt side depends far more on innuendo, cherry picked details from contradictory witness statements and testimony, and seem overly committed to details that don't that much. Usually, what I see is little attempt to reconcile contradictory and mutually falsifying beliefs.
I am not saying that those who believe Adnan is innocent don't sometimes do the same thing. I would say overall, though, they handle the evidence more carefully, consistently, and methodologically soundly.
Principally, I think the main difference is between fast and slow thinkers. Fast thinkers make quick judgments and often rely on a "What I See Is All There Is" way of thinking. So, for example, we have quite a lot of information about Adnan and his day and we can pick through all that information to find inconsistencies, lies, whatever. We have a lot less information on other potential suspects, for example, Don. So the focus is on Adnan because there is a lot more there to cherry pick and confirm our initial biases.
I think the innocent crowd is more likely to withhold judgment both on Adnan and individual pieces of evidence until their questions and doubts are more satisfied. The are less likely to rely on an initial rush to judgment.
Here are some examples:
I am thinking of writing a spine post because I keep hearing this as some kind of evidence that Adnan is guilty. If you have ever heard of the Cental Park 5 and watched or read their statements, you will see that all five confessed to the rape of the jogger, separately included similar corroborating details, and yet it was all made up through suggestive leading questioning by detectives. The true rapist was a serial rapist who was caught for another case soon after the fact. It didn't stop the wheels of justice against the 5 teens who were convicted though. Here you had a "spine" corroborated by not just one sketchy witness, but 5 separate young people.
I'm going to stop there. These are my observations. It is entirely possible that despite their weak reasoning and amateur use of evidence, that the guilters are right and Adnan is guilty. I am not at this point at all convinced.
The best advice I've found about interviewing and hiring was in Thinking fast and slow by Daniel Kahneman and it's not specific to engineering/programming at all. Basically decide on what aspects you will measure up front and calibrate your interviewers on what good/bad/great looks like. Then have your interviewers meet and grade each candidate on each aspect independently without sharing notes until it's all over. Tally up the scores and hire the winner.
If you do that then you'll have more successful hires than if you don't. Virtually everything else programmers tend to do while interviewing is either a waste of time or hurting your success rate.
The other big problem with technical interviews is the emphasis on making perfect hires or screening bad engineers. It's simply way too complicated to do reliably and you end up wasting a lot of time interviewing and going without the help you desperately need. It's better to put more emphasis on actually making the hires you need, and if they struggle with the engineering work then give them feedback and help them improve, if they can't improve then fire them and hire someone else.
OK, so here is my advice.
First, some background on me so you know where I'm coming from with this. I started my own business almost 5 years ago. It's a tech company, but I think I've learned enough that there are applicable lessons, not only from my work but from the other entrepreneurs this has put me in contact with. Currently my company is self sustaining, has 5 full time employees, and Fortune 100 customers (we make B2B software).
First thing - you have to be really careful starting a business around your passion. This can be an easy way to come to hate your hobby. Remember that it is a business first. While I haven't reread it in years, you might want to read a book called The E Myth which talks about starting a small business.
Second, if you're serious about this, I hope this post wasn't some sort of customer validation experiment. Of course people here are going to be interested. However, most likely no one here is an actual potential customer. I've read some of your other answers here where you've mentioned that games sell "like hot cakes" and there is no real competition and it's a large market. If you do this without any real customer validation you're going to have a rough time at best and be out of business quickly with a ton of debt at worst. Who are your customers? How are they going to know about this place? How do you know what they are willing to pay to participate? How do you know THEY want a place like this? How do you know they are actually willing to pay you money to come to this place? A good book to help understand the various ways you can gain traction is Traction which discusses 19 different traction channels and how people have put them to use to grow their business.
Can you deal with competition? Even if there isn't another business like this in the area, how do you know someone isn't working to start one? If your business is a success will someone start a competitor? Are you ready for that? What if a month before you open a competitor beats you to it? If you have a solid business and plans to grow in place you'll be fine.
I don't know if you plant to raise money or not, but regardless of that fact, think of how you would pitch this to someone who could invest but doesn't give a crap about boardgames or pubs. Would someone who is looking at this from a purely objective money making standpoint be interested? Have you generated enough traction, attention, and interest to make this an appealing business prospect? If not, what can you do to change that? If you can't figure that out now, do you really want to wait until you're deep into this business to try and figure it out?
Set up some metrics. Probably the best way to do it for your business is to measure revenue per visit. How much profit do you expect to make per person per visit? If you are charging $4 per person and then you expect some % of them to buy additional things (food, games, drinks) - your avg per person should be over $4, obviously. How many visitors and at what average profit per visitor do you need to stay afloat? You can increase your overall profit 2 ways - increase the number of visitors or increase the average profit per visitor. You'll have some limits - you an only fit so many people in the building, for example. This will help you determine if this business can be profitable and give you an idea of where you need to be so you know early on if you're tracking well or not. Measure everything that you can.
Basically, just be careful. You're mixing your hobby with your work, but you have to remember it's a business first and foremost. Treat it like a business and be honest with yourself and you'll be fine.
Also, fried foods with games sounds like a good way to end up with a library of greasy games.
Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World--and Why Things Are Better Than You Think
https://www.amazon.com/Factfulness-Reasons-World-Things-Better/dp/1250107814
Please read a book like this. Wealth disparity might be getting larger but the world is getting better for people due to capitalism.
Wealth gaps are a red herring. Yes, we should tax rich people more and close loopholes and redistribute a bunch of it. However, rich people should exist and having billionaires is not a problem. Having rich people actually has made the world better in a lot of ways. We just need to have them provide more than they have already.
It depends on what types of things you're interested in!
Over time, you'll come to know certain people who research in different areas and you can go to their personal webpages and access their Curriculum Vitae. Through that, you can find all the work they've done and many times they link to PDF copies of their papers.
But psychology is a very broad field. Here are some suggestions I can come up with:
For dealings with moral political psychology (the psychology of how people on the right and people on the left feel about moral decisions - includes religions and other aspects to our deeply-rooted conceptions of 'self'), see Jonathan Haidt - He just wrote a new book called The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion
For dealings with the extent and limits of human rationality, I'd suggest Daniel Kahneman. He also just wrote a new book called Thinking Fast and Slow.
Stuffisnice suggested William James. James' Principles of Psychology is remarkable and very fun to read. It's quite dated both in science and in language, but his writing is impeccable.
In fact, James didn't just do psychology. He did philosophy as well. His later philosophy was at odds with the picture provided by most mainstream psychology that takes the brain as the source of our mental experience. These philosophical aspects have recently been brought into the empirical realm in the branch of Ecological psychology. This is my personal preference for psychology reading as I feel it is much more willing to ask harder questions than traditional psychology; it is willing to do away with assumptions and premises that are generally taken for granted.
This ecological framework deals more with perception and the role of the animal's action in perception. Instead of the traditional way of looking at perception (cells react to stimuli in the environment, feed this encoded stimuli into the brain, the brain processes things and makes sense of them, recreating a picture of the world through its activity, and finally sending out directions to the body to move), the ecological perspective focuses more on how the animal perceives the world directly and does not require internal processing to make sense of the world. It's much cleaner and much simpler. The brain is still crucial for the lived experience, but it is not the whole story.
For readings in ecological psychology, I would recommend Ed Reed's Encountering the World and Eleanor Gibson's An Ecological Approach to Perceptual Learning and Development.
After you get your bearings, then you can get into some really deep stuff that tries to synthesize biology, psychology, and the essence of human/animal experience (phenomenology). For that, Evan Thompson is my go to guy. His work is heavily philosophical and is sometimes overly dense, but you may find it interesting.
PM me if you have any questions!
> Being color blind doesn't mean pretending color doesn't exist. It means not taking it into consideration when it's not relevant.
You're mistaken, and the second sentence emphasizes it. The fact is, color is more relevant than you realize, especially when you haven't gone through most of your life being judged negatively because of it. "Color blindness," is a happy way to pretend that race matters much less than it really does.
> If I'm getting someone foundation, I'm going to check it against their skin tone. But I'm not going to look at skin color to decide whether to sell a house to someone or anything like that.
I assume what you're implying here is that race only matters when specifically relevant to physical characteristics. Unfortunately, our society isn't built like that, and never has been. To your example, people do consider race when selling a house, and have (and continue to) actively and deliberately hinder the ability of people of the "wrong" race (particularly African Americans) from home ownership or rentals. "Color blindness" says it's wrong to focus anti-discrimination efforts on African American victims, since it says it's wrong to involve race in decision making.
> And if you act like I described, then there are no "innate biases". Not sure where you're getting that.
So, even if you deep in your heart believe that racism is wrong, even if you try your hardest every day to treat everyone fairly, and even if you are a member of an underprivileged race, you likely carry a racial bias (e.g., even if you're black, you subconsciously associate negative assumptions with black people). This has been scientifically proven again and again, but there's a fantastic demonstration here if you want to see first hand instead of reading lots of dry papers. Try it out and you'll likely be very surprised by the results.
> As for the wheelchair thing, again, if it is directly related to the wheelchair, I take it into consideration, but I'm not going to make assumptions about, for example, intelligence or voting rights.
There's two problems here.
First, if you grew up in the western world, and especially if you grew up white in America, you are very unlikely to be able to judge exactly what is related to race. If you are a human who is not specifically educated on these matters, chances are very high you'll be wrong. This is what people are talking about when they deride "privilege." Think about the likely-fictional account of Mary Antoinette saying "let them eat cake." She wasn't saying that to dismiss the starving population, she just heard there were riots because there was no bread, and therefore concluded that in the absence of bread, cake should be available and suffice. It was absolutely unfathomable to her what the life of a French peasant was really like. The same is true in a large part for anyone growing up with any kind of privilege. It's so hard to think about experiences you have nothing in common with, and as a result, you color (no pun intended) your every decision in your own ignorance. (Read this, and maybe the article it's about).
Second, whether you like it or not, you probably do make assumptions about things like intelligence, unless you are constantly vigilant against it. By purely following your intuition (which is based very rapid subconscious decisions), you will almost certainly be wrong, and you will almost certainly convince yourself that you came to any conclusion rationally. By assuming you have no bias, you actually allow your bias to take control. I highly recommend Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow for some eye opening information on human cognition.
> Color blind=not grouping people together based on skin color, not completely erasing individual experiences.
The fact is, again, that this is just wrong. When you purposefully disregard race, you are erasing individual experiences. You are encouraging the creation of implicit groupings by ignoring them. There's more to racism than Jim Crow and the KKK.
Sure, that's what psychologists (and skeptics, and atheists) have always argued. Irrationality, superstition, gullibility, biased and fallacious thinking are deeply ingrained in human nature. Humans are cognitive misers, because thinking rationally is hard and costly. We're evolved in an environment where, in order to maximize chances of survival and reproduction, we had to act, react, think and form beliefs quickly, rather than thinking things through thoroughly. Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow is a must-read on this.
But, no reason to lose heart. Humans have a remarkable ability that distinguishes us from other animals: we're capable of metacognition. We're able to think about and analyze our own thinking. We can identify flaws and compensate for them, recognize biases and correct for them. Methods that have proven effective in this endeavor have even been institutionalized: they're called science and skepticism. Other human endeavors have gone the opposite route, fostering and exploiting human irrationality. Those are called superstitions, pseudosciences, charlatanry, religion.
That's one of my favorite popular science books, so it's wonderful to hear you're getting so much out of it. It really is a fascinating topic, and it's sad that so many Christians close themselves off to it solely to protect their religious beliefs (though as you discovered, it's good for those religious beliefs that they do).
As a companion to the book you might enjoy the Stated Clearly series of videos, which break down evolution very simply (and they're made by an ex-Christian whose education about evolution was part of his reason for leaving the religion). You might also like Coyne's blog, though these days it's more about his personal views than it is about evolution (but some searching on the site will bring up interesting things he's written on a whole host of religious topics from Adam and Eve to "ground of being" theology). He does also have another book you might like (Faith Versus Fact: Why Science and Religion are Incompatible), though I only read part of it since I was familiar with much of it from his blog.
> If you guys have any other book recommendations along these lines, I'm all ears!
You should definitely read The Selfish Gene by Richard Dawkins, if only because it's a classic (and widely misrepresented/misunderstood). A little farther afield, one of my favorite popular science books of all time is The Language Instinct by Steven Pinker, which looks at human language as an evolved ability. Pinker's primary area of academic expertise is child language acquisition, so he's the most in his element in that book.
If you're interested in neuroscience and the brain you could read How the Mind Works (also by Pinker) or The Tell-Tale Brain by V. S. Ramachandran, both of which are wide-ranging and accessibly written. I'd also recommend Thinking, Fast and Slow by psychologist Daniel Kahneman. Evolution gets a lot of attention in ex-Christian circles, but books like these are highly underrated as antidotes to Christian indoctrination -- nothing cures magical thinking about the "soul", consciousness and so on as much as learning how the brain and the mind actually work.
If you're interested in more general/philosophical works that touch on similar themes, Douglas R. Hofstadter's Gödel, Escher, Bach made a huge impression on me (years ago). You might also like The Mind's I by Hofstadter and Daniel Dennett, which is a collection of philosophical essays along with commentaries. Books like these will get you thinking about the true mysteries of life, the universe and everything -- the kind of mysteries that have such sterile and unsatisfying "answers" within Christianity and other mythologies.
Don't worry about the past -- just be happy you're learning about all of this now. You've got plenty of life ahead of you to make up for any lost time. Have fun!
Came here to say basically this.
OP - you need to think about this from the customer end of things - how many people go out looking for "a creative mind"? No one I know of, unless they have a follow-on, "for ___". You need to make it clear what you provide and who your target market or markets are.
Sachbl makes a great point about kid-focussed services, so let's start with that.
You decide (in our example) to target the market defined as 'parents with 1 or more children under 7-8yrs of age' to sell a service that could be described as 'decorating/painting children's room and furniture'.
With that starting point you now know you need to make your service visible to that market. So, where do they go, what do they do, who do they communicate with or work with in their day to day lives?
A few answers might be day-care, pediatricians, and other service providers who target the same market. Perhaps even stores that sell second-hand kid supplies (more on that in a second).
Now, knowing that, how do you get information about your service into those areas? Are there day-care providers in your area that would be willing to make flyers available to parents, on a bulletin board, flyer rack in their lobbies or something like that? Same question with pediatricians offices.
If yes, put a flyer together - as professionally done as you can, make it clean, spell-checked, proofed by a friend, and go by businesses willing to let you advertise like that. Bring a portfolio in case they are interested in seeing your work - don't be pushy and do be mindful that they are doing you a huge favor by letting you advertise there. You are at their place of business and they may not have time or interest, but if they are interested, a good impression could lead to verbal referrals.
Now, back to businesses selling secondhand / hand-me-down / twice-loved goods for kids, these are an opportunity for B2B (business to business) rather than B2C (business to customer/consumer) work. How many of them get furniture in that they would be willing to pay to get reconditioned/refurbished? How much could you charge them while still leaving them an ability to make a profit off the final product? Would charging that amount be worth your time? If they can afford to pay $10 to have a chair done and it takes you 2hrs, then you are making $5/hr, out of which you are having to pay your own taxes as a small business owner. You've already had experience with this issue, but I wanted to reinforce that - it's something a lot of businesses lose track of sometimes - you don't just need to make money, you need to have positive cash flow, which you won't have if you spend too much time making too little profit.
What about people selling/renting homes or apartments to parents? Or companies that do home remodeling? Do either of these businesses market themselves to parents specifically? Would they be interested in a partnering arrangement, where they do some sort of construction/remodeling work and you come in and decorate? I have no idea if that's an opportunity, but partnerships where you can represent an additional service someone else can sell is another angle to use.
The above discussion is oriented around the example of decorating for children's spaces, but I think you can see the general ideas in play. Just ask the same questions for whatever market you are aiming for.
Resources
Business Model Generation
If you can track down a copy of Business Model Generation (amazon.com), I think you'll find it very helpful in organizing your thoughts on all of this, especially with the visual approach to modeling. If you can't afford it, check your local public library and see if they have it locally or available via interlibrary loan.
The Business Model Generation website is also useful.
The Small Business Administration (SBA)
You sound very motivated and at the beginning of the entrepreneurial adventure. A good resource for someone in your position, besides your local bookstore/library business section, is your local SBDC.
Last Thoughts
Keep in mind these are also opportunities to make a very bad impression. A key thing you want to do is create the impression that despite your youth and the fact that you are in the early days of your business, you both understand that you have a lot to learn (and are thus seeking out resources, information, business education) and approach your business as a business, not a hobby you hope to make money off of.
I'm not saying that in relation to anything in your post, but I've seen a lot of people who ... basically gave one the sense that they had no idea what they were doing, no idea that they had no idea what they were doing, and were basically just making/doing something for money and throwing it out into the market and hoping for the best. Ugh.
That's about all I've got in me at the moment. I hope you find it helpful. Don't be afraid to take a day / weekend job to keep your head above water. Getting a business started can take time. You need to eat and have a place to live until then. Money helps with this. :)
The Art of Deception is pretty popular and written by famed Kevin Mitnick.
I myself have been a cosleeping breastfeeder and know a few other ladies who have done the same and I really feel like 4 months is one of the hardest times, milk demand goes up, their ability to interact goes up and with it generally night waking.
We just kinda powered through it, I spent a month or so of going to bed at 8 just so we could get some sleep.
Since then I have picked up Pantley's No Cry Sleep Solution and she has some suggestions for night weaning if that is a route you're interested in going. If your like me, and enjoy/want/need that night nursing time and arent ready to wean at 4 months, I would like to give you a big hug and say, it does get better! Good Luck!
There is a difference in allowing your child to cry themselves to sleep and teaching them to soothe themselves and go to sleep on thier own. I recommend a book called the No Cry Sleep Solution. We have followed the same bedtime routine (and played the same music) every night for our son who is now three and he goes to sleep at night and for nap with no fuss. Also when you first begin, you don't let your child just cry it out. You start by waiting 5 then 10,15, and 20 minutes to soothe them. I think that we started this around six or nine months old.
I'd like to suggest this book to you. It's a controversial work by a very famous and well-regarded philosopher. He lays out a case for the view that Darwinian evolutionary theory is at best incomplete, and that a materialist conception of the universe is inadequate to explain some data (e.g. the subjective character of consciousness). The book is very controversial but, if you feel that you've a good handle on the theory of evolution, you should probably read it for yourself and make up your own mind rather than reading a review/response piece. At worst you get an interesting introduction to some of the problems that evolutionary theorists are grappling with today.
EDIT: I should clarify something for the sake of your topic. Theories rarely fall on the basis of how well they deal with the cases that the theory was specifically developed to explain. Evolution, for example, was developed as a theory for explaining apparent trends among the diversity of life on Earth. It does this well, most think, in that it adequately explains all the data that you mention. Where evolutionary theory will run into hiccups - as most do - is in dealing with new explananda ('things to explain'). Newtonian mechanics were largely abandoned in the light of new observational evidence (e.g. new astronomical observations). If Darwinian evolution will face a serious challenge it's likely going to come from a new datum.
Depending on how much project management you do vs. personnel management, there is Cracking the PM Interview by the same author (though possibly ghostwritten).
General personnel management probably involves more general management interview questions, for which I'm sure a million books have been written (though I don't know enough about them to recommend a specific one).
Edit: If you haven't already, though, read Peopleware. If more shops were run like they suggest, the world would be a better place.
Read like your life depends on it. All topics. Grow yourself.
Also, a couple that I found useful around the concept of building a business (rather than being self employed):
Reading like a fiend will also help you in your job. You’ll become more effective in leading teams, leading yourself, influencing change across organizations. Your worth will climb whether you stay with the same company or move around or work for yourself.
Hello! I am a social investment supporter. My journey started last year when I read Hans Rosling's book: Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World -- and Why Things Are Better Than You Think. According to Hans, the best investment opportunities are in the emerging markets of Asia and Africa. He described how we should look at statistics to make smart business decisions. I especially liked how he was optimistic about the future of the world and how countries are working hard to get out of poverty. It's not an investing book per se but it gives a good insight on where you might want to focus your attention if you want to make a difference in this world. It also solidified my rule to invest in the Philippines only and not be distracted by any foreign investment product (as I am currently based abroad).
Here's a TEDtalk as an intro to Hans Rosling: https://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_reveals_new_insights_on_poverty/
I further asked myself how could his ideas be particularly applicable in the Philippines, where a lot of my countrymen are still living in poverty? Fortunately, I found Vince Rapisura on Facebook and he constantly discusses being a "Social Investor." Before meeting him, I have never heard anything about Social or Impact investing. I thought investing was just to make my money work for me. But through him, I learned that investing can create more value than just mere profit. We can select investments that have a conscious goal of making a positive impact on society. Vince's company, SEDPI, is focused on such ventures and his presentations are on his website: https://vincerapisura.com/impact-investing-handouts/
I am still reading more books about the topic and my search got me to Banker To The Poor: Micro-Lending and the Battle Against World Poverty. It was written by Muhammad Yunus and he earned a Nobel Peace Prize for his work in Bangladesh. I think his concepts are pretty similar to what Vince is doing with his company.
Let me also share this episode about Tagum Cooperative (which Vince has been raving about recently) and I must say their work and mission are inspiring: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQbtbORwUfE
Sorry, I am just blabbing about my recent reading/watching list but to answer your question, yes, socially responsible investments have been on my mind lately and I got excited when I saw your question. I admit that I still have an index fund and I know that some companies there don't have the best reputations, so I am slowly transitioning and studying more materials in order to invest in enterprises that I can understand and have the same principles as I do. It is a hard task but hopefully, I would get there. If you ever have a chance to attend a seminar by Vince, I'd say go for it.
I just posted this on another thread. Buy this book. Read it and show the fam. in a respectful way. It’s a very balanced view of the world based on facts. It has a cool website that shows graphical examples around the world.
Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World--and Why Things Are Better Than You Think https://www.amazon.com/dp/1250107814/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_i_.VDsDbTYESQV2
My thought is whoever made these graphs should read: http://www.amazon.com/The-Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions/dp/159420411X
Don't know specifics of what you're after, so I'll shotgun you with links:
Hopefully something was to your liking.
Note: An active /r/rational book-club would be awesome. Community analysis would help to improve our definition of rational fiction; as well as improving our rational reading skills.
If you think this is interesting, you should read [Thinking Fast and Slow] (https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555).
If you can get your hands on it, this is the best depiction of a future Japan.
Tl:dr - A re-militarized Japan allied with a nationalist Germany and Turkey becomes a future threat to the United States, starts WW3 or WW4 by shooting down an American space station, and there's power armor involved in all of this. I'm not making this up.
A few years ago, an analyst wrote a book (I will find the name shortly) that tried to predict the entire 21st century. One of the first things up was about how turkey was going to start the largest conflict of the century.. its insane to think he may be right this fast.
Here's the book I was referencing: http://www.amazon.com/The-Next-100-Years-Forecast/dp/0767923057
We're currently in the mini-cold war with Russia which is very interesting.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Lucas_Jr.
further reading: on basically all 4 bullets https://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/0812975219/ref=pd_sim_14_2/133-0444399-0427912?_encoding=UTF8&amp;pd_rd_i=0812975219&amp;pd_rd_r=20G8KZ7HRQTB9EV8KRMF&amp;pd_rd_w=QI4pT&amp;pd_rd_wg=y8262&amp;psc=1&amp;refRID=20G8KZ7HRQTB9EV8KRMF
further further reading on the last bullet, and the actual explanation of "black swan" that is starting to show up in crypto but totally incorrectly used https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X
you could also dig into efficient market hypothesis.
also, if you're into technical analysis/charts, this could shake your views a little but it's good to be challenged
Black swan.
I've got a book for you my friend: https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X
You'll like it
The E-Myth Revisited: Why Most Small Businesses Don't Work and What to Do About It https://www.amazon.com/dp/0887307280/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_i_3tMADbCN4D5Y0
The book focuses more on regular local small businesses and explains that if an owner is working IN the business (doing the work) instead of ON the business (improving the business) then the owner just owns a job and not a business. In order to truly have a business and a quality of life as an owner, all the day to day responsibilities need to be handled by employees so that the owner can focus on growing and improving the business. This isn’t realistic for some owners, which is why they only own a job and may never have a quality of life that makes owning a business “worth it”.
Hey Johnny, I have a friend who is a similar situation and he cheated on his spouse. WAIT, keep reading, I'M NOT ACCUSING YOU OF ANYTHING. This is literally the nicest, most devoted guy I know, but one drunken night he accidentally got into a compromising position and cheated. The worst thing you can do to avoid this behavior is to think your above it. It's like a car crash, nobody thinks it will be them till it is. So admit to yourself that it's a possibility (not an eventuality) and maybe avoid booze and compromising situations.
But your actual problem isn't too hard to solve.
Obviously the only way this is going to get better is through communication. Which neither of you seem great at. She seems to dismiss your feelings which is a massive red flag for a LTR. But I'd wager your also expressing your feelings ineffectively. You need more assertive with your feelings. They matter. They aren't going away. Make sure she knows that.
BUT
Just as importantly as what you say, is how you say it.
The standard advice you will get on the sub is to use 'I' statements (I feel like dismiss my feelings) instead of 'you' statements (You dismiss my feelings all the time).
But that's very basics.
Read this
It's a book on negotiation by a FBI hostage negotiator. The key to hostage negotiation? Empathy and understanding. And this book teaches you how to express that effectively.
Now the book says to 'Never compromise'. But he's talking about business deals and hostage negotiation, YOU can compromise. You have to. Remember your playing the long game, and sexual awakening is a gradual process.
Other than that, therapy is very appropriate here. Shes sounds very sexually repressed, and you are a good candidates for some counselling. Just make sure you get a good one, a bad therapist is worst than no therapist.
It doesn't dive into the US ethnic divides, but the book Factfulness takes a stab at some other "situations everyone assumes are still bad even though they've gotten a lot better."
Estaba Leyendo Factfulness, y en verdad doy gracias a personas como el Doctor Monckeberg que lograron con su trabajo erradicar la desnutrición, combatir la falta de estimulación a edades tempranas, y en general disminuir la mortalidad infantil. También por impulsar un programa de salud que estuviera enfocado a suplir las necesidades de salud básicas más inmediatas de la población, además del programa integro para madres, lactantes, niños.
En las propias palabras del Doctor: Es el avance más trascendente en la historia de este país.
/u/xamueljones had suggested we do another collective read-through. I nominate Algorithms to Live By, which is basically a combination of freshman-to-sophomore computer science with a bit of the probabilistic-computation school of cognitive science, for a lay audience.
Thoughts, anyone?
There is a chapter in Algorithms to Live By which claims the effect is beyond silly and annoying.
> If you want to be a good intuitive Bayesian--if you want to naturally make good predictions, without having to think about what kind of prediction rule is appropriate--you need to protect your priors. Counterintuitively, that might mean turning off the news.
p. 148 Algorithms to Live By, Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths
Link to book on Amazon
Thinking Fast and Slow is not exactly what you asked for (as other people have responded to that) but it is also an important aspect of learning about how you think.
I really do need to read that. I recently read Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow which is largely based on Epstein's work on dual processing.
I just checked out Tom Stafford's For Argument's Sake: Evidence That Reason Can Change Minds
>Are we irrational creatures, swayed by emotion and entrenched biases? Modern psychology and neuroscience are often reported as showing that we can't overcome our prejudices and selfish motivations. Challenging this view, cognitive scientist Tom Stafford looks at the actual evidence. Re-analysing classic experiments on persuasion, as well as summarising more recent research into how arguments change minds, he shows why persuasion by reason alone can be a powerful force.This is a collection of previously published essays, revised and expanded by the author, and accompanied by a previously unpublished introduction and annotated bibliography to guide further reading on the topic.Tom Stafford is Lecturer in Psychology and Cognitive Science at the University of Sheffield.
I have my doubts, but we shall see.
Amazon.com links provided:
1 The Slight Edge
2 Mastery
3 The 4-Hour Workweek
4 The Art of Power
5 Thinking, Fast, and Slow
6 The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People
7 The Power of Now
8 The Power of Habit
9 Whatcha Gonna Do with That Duck?
10 The 48 Laws of Power
11 Your True Home
12 Ego Is the Enemy
13 The 4 Hour Body
14 The UltraMind Solution
15 The Dip
Hi! Psych major + bookworm over here. Some well written and accessible books that I've enjoyed reading are:
Thinking Fast and Slow from Kahneman http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1375192703&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=kahneman+thinking+fast+and+slow
Willpower: discovering the greatest human strength by Baumeister http://www.amazon.com/Willpower-Rediscovering-Greatest-Human-Strength/dp/0143122231/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1375192853&amp;sr=1-1&amp;keywords=willpower
And Outliers by Gladwell http://www.amazon.com/Outliers-Story-Success-Malcolm-Gladwell/dp/0316017930/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1375192928&amp;sr=1-2&amp;keywords=10000+hours
Baumeister and Kahneman are the leading figures on the research done within their particalur fields and these books show a glimpse inside of the kitchen, so to speak. (Iḿ not 100% sure about Gladwell, Iḿ on my phone atm). The books are well written, accessible, entertaining and fascinating.
Not random malfunctions. It was incredibly precise.
It would look for specific serial numbers on specific brands of controllers. It would send fake data to the operator's screen, then let the centrifuges spin themselves into destruction. The worm was designed entirely to take out just Iran's centrifuges. It was completely benign to any other device.
E: also, in the vein of human stupidity: https://www.amazon.com/Art-Deception-Controlling-Element-Security/dp/076454280X/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1492349753&amp;sr=8-4&amp;keywords=mitnick
Well, perhaps the most famous, and certainly the most influential, is the Dying Earth series by Jack Vance. Not only are the original books by Vance still available, but there was also a recent anthology by many famous SF authors set in the same milieu.
Gene Wolfe's Book of the New Sun is the next most famous work. Amazing stuff and highly recommended.
I can also recommend Hiero's Journey (and its sequel) as perfect examples of what you're looking for. One catch, though, is that these are out of print now. Very entertaining if you can find them (second hand copies available easily enough online).
And of course there are the Shanara books.
Start with Shadow & Claw.
Sword & Citadel is the second half of The Book of the New Sun.
If you would like to continue on through the rest of the overall Solar Cycle, it is Urth of the New Sun, Book of the Long Sun and Book of the Short Sun. There are omnibus editions available, you can see them all here.
Also, The Fifth Head of Cerberus is arguably a prequel to the series, and either way is well worth a read. And if you want to dig even deeper, Castle of Days has Gene Wolfe discussing BotNS as well as a bunch of other short stories.
See? Not confusing at all...
The senior part is more of a technical grade level and not necessarily management... granted I'm in the lead role here, it's my first time as one. All I can say is what help me spring forward at a lull at mid-level was picking up Thomas Limoncelli's books, [the sysadmin one] (https://www.amazon.com/Practice-System-Network-Administration-Enterprise/dp/0321919165/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1512041042&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=thomas+limoncelli) and [the cloud one] (https://www.amazon.com/Practice-Cloud-System-Administration-Practices/dp/032194318X/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1512041042&amp;sr=8-3&amp;keywords=thomas+limoncelli) /r/sysadmin recommends them too. These are your best practice books, these tell you why to do things, not how. It will turn you from being the guy that mops the floor in a burning building into knowing when to yell, "FIRE!"
Cert wise, unless a specific company or contract requires it, I don't bother with the time and money on certs if you already have years of experience on the books. I'd probably go for a Security+ and then go for a Red Hat and/or CCNA certification as they are both prestigious. Red Hat is a big deal just by its practical application test.
If you want to go into cloud related stuff, you might want to brush up on your programming. This is what is limiting me, I have very minimal bash scripting experience coming from military in the Windows world then making a move to Linux.
Honestly, I would focus on being both as they both overlap very often unless you are in really large stovepipe enterprise environments, but you never know if you need to make a move to something smaller where you have the many hats role. I'd get your degree in something Computer science related (CS, CIS, EE, CE, etc) and then go RHCSA/CE and maybe Sec+/Net+ or instead of Net+ just go for something Cisco related. My networking is Net+ strength at best and I resent not doing better when I was younger.
EDIT: Also, if you can do the math, BS is Computer Science all the way... sysadmins are still really kind of not doing well in the degree program department, mainly because were so... trade-like I guess. Honestly, we're the new Millwrights like my dad was. We keep the factory going and fix it when production stops. It's kind of cool actually, it's nice to be able to have some kinship to my dad in that way.
Against The God: the remarkable story of Risk- Outlines the history of probability theory and risk assessment through the centuries
https://www.amazon.com/Against-Gods-Remarkable-Story-Risk/dp/0471295639/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1475105434&amp;sr=1-1&amp;keywords=against+the+gods
When Genius Failed - A narrative of the spectacular fall of Long Term Capital Management, a hedge fund which had on its board both Myron Scholes AND Robert Merton (you will recall them from MFE)
https://www.amazon.com/When-Genius-Failed-Long-Term-Management/dp/0375758259/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1475105453&amp;sr=1-1&amp;keywords=when+genius+failed
Black Swan/ Antifragility- A former quant discusses the nature of risk in these controversial and philosophical books. Some parts of this book are actually called out and shamed in McDonald's Derivative Markets, one or the both of them are worth reading
https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1475105478&amp;sr=1-1&amp;keywords=black+swan
Godel, Escher, Bach- Very dense look into recursive patterns in mathematics and the arts. While not actuarial, it's obviously very mathematical, a must read.
https://www.amazon.com/G%C3%B6del-Escher-Bach-Eternal-Golden/dp/0465026567/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1475105497&amp;sr=1-1&amp;keywords=geb
Endurance- This was recommended to me by a pure mathematics professor. Again, not actuarial, but more about the nature of perseverance though problem solving(sound familiar). It's about Shakleton's famous voyage to the south pole.
https://www.amazon.com/Endurance-Shackletons-Incredible-Alfred-Lansing/dp/0465062881/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1475105520&amp;sr=1-1&amp;keywords=endurance+shackleton%27s+incredible+voyage
It sounds like you want to do this as a hobby instead of a business. If you are wanting to do this to play more games then you will end up playing less games if you run a good business and if you try to run it as a hobby it's not going to be able to support you and will end up being more of a "clubhouse" than a professionally run game store. My largest piece of advice is to read https://www.amazon.com/Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses-About/dp/0887307280 If you do read that and still want to open a store feel free to reach out to me and I'll be happy to answer any specific questions you have.
Have you read Thinking Fast and Slow?
Cognitive psychology is where lots of decision-making stuff is housed, but if you start with cognition as a broad topic, it will take a while to get to decision-making.
As are we all. But I don't have the same stressors to impair my ability to make good decisions. And when I make a stupid decision, I attend a slightly worse college, or skip a nicety for a few months. Easy recoveries are not a luxury those in poverty can afford.
Thinking, Fast and Slow by nobel prize winner Daniel Kahneman.
It is an amazing book and I have recommended it to almost everyone I know. It is really thoroughly researched.
from wikipedia:
>Thinking, Fast and Slow is a 2011 book by Nobel Memorial Prize winner in Economics Daniel Kahneman which summarizes research that he conducted over decades, often in collaboration with Amos Tversky. It covers all three phases of his career: his early days working on cognitive bias, his work on prospect theory, and his later work on happiness.
>The book's central thesis is a dichotomy between two modes of thought: "System 1" is fast, instinctive and emotional; "System 2" is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The book delineates cognitive biases associated with each type of thinking, starting with Kahneman's own research on loss aversion. From framing choices to substitution, the book highlights several decades of academic research to suggest that people place too much confidence in human judgment.
Information which threatens your core beliefs is perceived by the brain very similar to a physical threat. A visual introduction to confirmation bias and the backfire effect (5-10 min to read):
http://theoatmeal.com/comics/believe
A big reason for the current situation is the media landscape. People often are not even in the position to ignore expert opinion because it does not penetrate their media bubble.
We even ignore expertise of ideological allies when inconvenient. Like how Republicans portray an overly simplistic picture of how markets work. How often do you hear "negative externalities", "information asymmetry", "market failure", "monopoly" or "oligopoly"? Markets are great, but not magical.
Healthcare as an example (30 min to read, a little technical): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3210041/
A great book about how our reasoning skills are more limited than we might think: https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555
>no one tried to tell my that my thinking is wrong
It's a difficult task, because the way our brains work makes personal experience supersede external information that contradict it, even when scientifically, objectively, our experience is... not "wrong" per se, but so incomplete that it veers into "wrong" teritory. I teach people how to get along with people, which is mainly applied psichology and neurology (specifically social neurology), so I come against this feature (it's not a bug, it's a feature) every time. For reference: Daniel Kahnemann's work. For reference: Chris Niebauer's book.
Your brain dupes you (it meakes you wrong, giving you the impression you're right) in several key areas relevant to our discussion here:
In your case, in order to examine what biases are in play and what is their result, I'd start questioning the hidden meaning of your use of notions like "chad", "betabux" and such. It speaks to overgeneralization (with a heavy serving of dehumanization) and confirmation bias.
Humans are unique. There are, of course, trends (sociology doesn't exist for nothing) but so far no human being looks and act exactly like another human being always and in all aspects; more, humans change over time: experience, opinions, world views and behavior shift as time passes. That would be the first step I'd take if I were you: stop working with archetypes and start looking for tiny differences. The world will get extremely rich if you do that.
TL;DR: you're wrong, but your brains won't let you see that and you have to voluntarily challenge it to improve your life quality.
Edited to add: and I didn't even touch the issue of cultural and social norms and conditioning, learned helplesness and many other phenomena that interfere and change all the stuff above.
> Come da titolo, se siete esperti di economia ditemi un po' dove posso trovare una trattazione divulgativa della materia o un qualche corso online.
Dunque: IEA e' abbastanza tecnico e te lo sconsiglio, ma Undercover Economist e' divertente, e puo' valer la pena di leggerlo anche solo per intrattenimento; sulla stessa riga c'e' anche Freakonomics che pero' a me e' piaciuto molto meno.
Se poi ti viene la voglia, io inizierei con un po' di microeconomia, ci sono ottimi testi universitari che pero' costano un botto; pero' in genere si trovano usati a poco. Quello di Krugmann e' molto 'easy/pop' e con poca matematica (l'ho solo sbirciato, pero'); io ne avevo uno di Perloff e non mi sembrava male (ma parlo di un bel po' di anni fa; probabilmente c'e' qualcosa di piu' aggiornato).
Per i corsi online: una mia conoscenza ha seguito un corso su Coursera di un tipo indiano (non mi ricordo), ma era orripilante: un mio amico lo seguiva, mi ha chiesto di dargli una mano, ho provato a guardare uno dei video e non ho mai visto spiegazioni cosi' vaghe e confuse. Evitalo come la peste..
Credo che qualcosa di migliore sia su Khan Academy; vale la pena di guardare. (EDIT: ho guardato ed e' un po' stringato, ti servira' un supplemento. Krugmann, Perloff o qualunque altra cosa sia disponibile usata a prezzo ragionevole; evita le traduzioni italiane, pero').
Dopo aver guardato un po' di microeconomia, potrai decidere su cosa buttarti.
Se ti interessa la finanza e ti piacciono i romanzi, leggi Liar's poker, che mi e' sembrato spettacolare. E se a questo punto ti prende l'idea di capire cosa sono mai questi misteriosi bond e derivati, c'e' un ottimo e chiarissimo (ma un po' pesante) libro di finanza di Ivo Welch disponibile online; richiede un po' di matematica ma e' chiarissimo.
Ah, visto che ora va di moda la 'behavioral economy', puoi anche leggere qualunque cosa di Dan Ariely (tipo Predictably Irrational), ed e' sempre divertentissimo (e ha fatto pure lui un corso su Coursera con cui mi sono diverito un sacco). Ma se ti interessano poi gli aspetti seri, leggi lo spettacolare Thinking fast and slow di Kahneman (premio nobel, a ragione).
Read this book:
The E-Myth Revisited: Why Most Small Businesses Don't Work and What to Do About It https://www.amazon.com/dp/0887307280/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_i_JMjdBbQQQEE10
The sooner you go from the employee to the business owner the sooner you'll start building a company and huge wealth.
I've always found E-Myth and How To Make Your Business Run Without You to be good resources for documenting processes. If there was software to walk you through the process it would be even better.
I'm not sure if this would work or not, but I would try redirecting people who have conservative or right-wing leaning views at least toward better thinkers than Joe Rogan and Jordan Peterson and toward optimistic views of the future of society, to cull some of the us-vs-them and zero-sum thinking that plagues these discussions.
Sometimes it feels like men, especially, feel existentially threatened by other modes of thought, so being at least sympathetic to the good bits of their ideas and offering something similar but that promotes openness and liberal ideas may help.
Hans Rosling's Factfulness presents a pretty optimistic view of the world. It's all getting better! Seriously!
Jonathan Haidt (and Greg Lukianoff for the first book)
I had worried that the first book would be a reiteration of right-wing talking points around safe spaces, but I was surprised to find it a good listen so far. It mentions several cognitive distortions and how cognitive behavioral therapy can overcome them as well. The second book is sympathetic to conservative views and gives a good tour of moral psychology. Really recommend.
Steven Pinker's The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined is also good. Seriously, the world is getting better! Pinker is heavier on the nature side that most lefties, so knowing that may make people more receptive if they won't receive an gender argument without some mention of biology.
Happy to help :) It is a near lifetime of just being a business junky and just loving to read about this stuff. The best and easiest book I give people when they want to learn business is the Personal MBA.
http://www.amazon.com/Personal-MBA-Master-Art-Business/dp/1591845572/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1375464773&amp;sr=1-1&amp;keywords=personal+mba+josh+kaufman
It is a solid, easy to read overview of business. You wount become an expert from it, but it is a 'explain like I am five 'introduction into business.
For innovation and new market development specific (My specialty) I'd go with Crossing the Chasm Quick read
http://www.amazon.com/The-Innovators-Dilemma-Revolutionary-Business/dp/0062060244
Lastly, take a strategic finance class. No numbers, simply the logic behind what is value. I've been told The Wall Street MBA is a good read but I can't vouch for it.
http://www.amazon.com/Wall-Street-MBA-Second/dp/007178831X/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1375464915&amp;sr=1-1&amp;keywords=wall+street+mba
Finance will ultimately change how you think. And not entirely for the better...
I will admit to not being a seismologist either, but what I've read says that is just flat-out not true. It may very well be that the fundamental average is 140 years, and that we've had a string where they're about that long, but the next one might come in 140 years, or it might be 500 years. It's absolutely impossible to know ahead of time. Here's the technical information on a Poisson process: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_process
The basic idea, as I said, is that in any given time interval the odds of a Poisson process occurring are exactly the same. The poster child of this is radioactive decay (which I actually am a specialist in). If you have a radioactive atom with a half-life of t, and you watch it for time T, there's some odds of it decaying. If it doesn't decay, and you watch it for time T again, then it has the exact same odds of decaying as the first time you watched it. In any given time window the odds are the same.
So, if earthquakes are a poisson process (and like I said I've read that they are, and while most of these links are PDFs they seem to back it up: https://www.google.com/search?q=earthquake%20poisson%20process), and we assume that 140 years is the half-life of the Hayward fault, what that means is that the odds of an earthquake happening in the next 140 years are 50%, and that's true regardless of how long it's been since the last big quake. That's what my original post meant, there is absolutely no sense in which a fault can be "due" for a quake.
If you want to read more about this, Nate Silver's book (http://www.amazon.com/The-Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions/dp/159420411X/) has a chapter about it that should be accessible to most anyone, and the rest of the book is awesome too.
The is no disagreement that climate change is real, there is however disagreement over the extent of climate change. If you get a chance, Nate Silver's book has a great chapter on this topic, a great book very worth reading. https://www.amazon.ca/Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions-Fail-but/dp/159420411X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1463230626&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=nate+silver
The truth on the extent of climate change is not fully agreed upon, and there is a lot of misinformation and agenda pushing even within the scientific community. There are cases of scientists using incorrect data to push their agenda because they felt that the agenda was more important than the science.
Predicting the extent of climate change is a messy thing. Saying climate change isn't real is clearly wrong, but it becomes problematic to say that we expect x carbon emission to cause y climate change over z time.
As usual, the devil is in the data.
Another study showed something similar, but from the other point of view. I believe I read it in Nate Silverman's The Signal and the Noise. It showed that people who made more money were seen as, for lack of a better word due to my own forgetfulness, more intelligent and deserving of their money. They would arbitrarily choose a subject in a group to be paid more, and that person was more likely to be listened to. I believe it also showed that a certain amount of respect is given for those who make or are perceived to make more money. I let someone borrow the book, so I don't currently have access to the passage/study.
This could quickly become the "book of stereotypes", and people don't want to be stereotypical, so the stereotypes would change. Not sure it would work.
But I'd like to recommend Algorithms to Live By. It's a bit like a "here are mathematically proven optimal strategies to live by", they are very useful and interesting. Not so far reaching as you'd like, but useful nonetheless.
Algorithms to Live By.
Anything that involves optimal stopping theory (how many significant others to date/apartments to check out before committing) is automatically fascinating – to me anyway.
I suppose this might be something along the lines of what you're looking for:
Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions
It is hard to decouple algorithms from programming and mathematics, but my brother who is neither programmer nor mathematician as well read that book.
Don't know if it was good though.
I recently read a interesting book about what might happen in the coming century.
One of the ideas is that the American (if not the world) economy works in cycles and one of the things makes it crash is trying to solve today's problem with yesterday's solution. To wit: the previous financial crsh was due to a lack of available investment. The solution was therefore to deregulate to get things started. The book proposes that once the American economy becomes strong again, it will suffer from a lack of manpower, thus driving prices offer down and prices up. Deregulation will not solve the problem but make it worse because what you need is more people making stuff. Hence immigration.
Not for quite the same reason, but Germany wants (some) immigration because their natality is low and without new people, they won't be able to maintain productivity.
> The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
(Wiki)
From the decent book: http://www.amazon.com/The-Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness/dp/081297381X
You don't need to set up as a limited company, but it will look more professional, and it will increase your accounting costs.
Being is sole trader is very simple from an accounting/tax point of view, being limited means you need to properly record everything, and you need to pay yourself a wage each month. There's other considerations which an accountant will talk you through. You'll also need him/her to submit your accountants each year for a cost of circa £400
There are tax and other benefits to being a limited company, but it really depends on your turnover/situation. If you're not selling goods, investing a lot or employing people then the tax benefits are negligible imo.
If you decide to be a sole trader, by law you have to write YOUR NAME Trading As YOUR COMPANY NAME somewhere on your invoices.
A decent accountant will walk you through the up and downsides and it's up to you really. You might ask yourself will your target audience be prefer to (or maybe only allowed to) buy from a registered company, or are they OK with a sole trader.
This is me speaking as a sole trader for the last 4 year, if any accountants respond they might see this differently.
Beyond that, you can make yourself look more professional by using a virtual office in a proper address. These start from about £30 pm for just the address and go up in cost if you add more services like mail forwarding, meeting space or even a telephone receptionist. Most of these business centre type places have upgrade paths so if things go well you could upgrade to a shared space or even a dedicated one.
If you're operating near a bigish city try to get a virtual office with an address with a central postcode, this will help you show up in Google Map results better.
You can also get VOIP numbers that travel with you wherever you're working so you can move office addreses if needed. I use a Skype Landline number which only costs £20 odd a year and means I can keep my number wherever I'm based, have an area code for the area I want to do business, it rings through on my PC, and (if the Gods are smiling) rings through on phone app as well.
If you don't have someone to turn to for logos/business cards drop me a PM and I can recommend a very good/value graphic designer. I can point you in the direction of more featured VOIP. And -whilst you probably don't need this- I make small business websites. Feel free to ignore this pargraph because I'm not trying to push anything on you, you'll soon discover that when you run a small business -initially at least- there's a lot more people interested in selling to you than buying from you.
I'd strongly consider looking into local business network meetings. Some are paid for and some are free.What they deliver varies wildly. If you want more in this just ask.
I'd also consider having a read of this.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/E-Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses-About/dp/0887307280/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1465382377&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=the+e+myth
And have a glance over here. There's not much of a UK business community on Reddit.
http://www.ukbusinessforums.co.uk/
Good luck, anything else just ask.
Slowly. When your LO's suckling slows down or switches to flutter sucking, gently unlatch. Gently hold your finger under his/her chin for a moment so the lack of nipple isn't so noticeable. If he/she wakes up and starts rooting, let baby latch back on and try again in a few minutes. Over and over. Takes some time, but it works. The book "The No Cry Sleep Solution" has a lot of info on this.
>Science doesn't explain everything
Nor should it even purport to, because not all knowledge is scientific knowledge. That's called scientism, and pretty much every philosopher and plenty of scientists reject it as an absurd, and indeed pseudoscientific propostion.
>I just think that materialism is a slippery slope
Slippery slopes are a slippery slope to bad arguments, usually straw-men. If you're going to arguing your case intelligently, I suggest they familiarise yourself with the intelligent propenents of what you are seeking to criticise.
First of all, materialism has been dead and for over a century and displaced by physicalism and neutral monism, the latter view also being held be theists, pantheists/pandeists like William James (who wrote The Varieties of Religious Experience, and atheists like a Bertrand Russell, David Chalmers, and Thomas Nagel of "What is it like to be a bat?" and Mind & Cosmos: Why the Materialist Neo-Darwinian Conception of Nature is Almost Certainly False fame. Then there are still idealists who are ontological naturalists like Hegel, as well as atheists like Schopenhauer. For supernatural theist idealists, I suggest you check out Charles Taylor, who is influenced by Marx, as well as the other communitarians.
There are also dualists who are atheists, like Jains who are so committed to non-violence that they refuse boil water because it might cause unnecessarily violence to bacteria and a practice a morality more demanding and rigorous than any Christian since Jesus, as well a certain atheistic conceptions of Buddhism.
There are many ways of seeing beyond the false dichotomy of you percieve as being on the top or the bottom of your metaphorical slipper slope which completely fails as comprehensive account of the multitude of views that billions of people hold, atheist and theist alike.
> humans are just sacks of meat and bones
Unfortunately the are plenty of angsty, philosophically ignorant r/atheists and their scientistic heros all too eager to play that role, but I don't have to look far for idiotic theists either.
>with no spirit or consciousness
Again, "spirit" is an assumption which simply by doesn't imply what you think it implies by necessity. Besides the examples above, pre-Babylonian exile Israelites had no concept of an immortal and immaterial soul, and assumed that death was oblivion until their contact with Persian and Greek philosophies.
As far as "no consciousness" goes, it should be obvious by now that hardly any philosophers agree with this. Listen Daniel Dennet's takedown of "atoms in the void" accounts of consciousness anti-realism over at philosophy bites or read one of his dozen or so books on the topic.
>you can't have a political revolution without a spiritual one
It's already been established that both political and spiritual revolutions have material antecedents. As for revolution we desire, that requires pardigm shift in mass consciousness, which, if you are not deterministic, may or may not require something like a "spiritual" revolution. Gramsci will fill you in on why it is so difficult for that to happen.
Last week, I bought both Anathem and Wolfe's The Book of the New Sun and decided on the latter to start reading last night. I'm not sure either book is appropriate for pre-bedtime reading when I'm starting to doze off as they both seem to require attentive reading... I think I need some brain candy for the late night reads.
Here is why open office plans became a thing: Money. Employee space is rated on certain amount of sq/ft per employee. If I rent a 1,000 sq/ft office space for open office plans each employee only gets about 30 sq/ft. With cubicles that jumps up to 50-60sq/ft an employee. Offices are about 110 sq/ft.
Looking purely at the cost which route do you think a company is going to go?
This is actually a good book on how people work and offices should be organized: Peopleware
> What does you ideal office space look like?
An office with a door. Doesn't need to be a big one but I need to be able to shut the door when I am on meetings or working on things.
> Do you have an idea of a better layout?
Interesting that I was never required to read any of these books while in college. Luckily, I have read 5 of the 12 on my own time and they have definitely helped me in my professional development - Refactoring, Clean Code and Design Patterns in particular. I also highly recommend Peopleware and reading other people's code on Github or elsewhere, particularly if you are learning a new language.
Thank shitty hiring practices that fail to do audition style interviews, where you have the applicant run through a set of tasks common to/representative of the job, using a non-production environment/machine.
That way you, and preferably a few people who do the applicant's job, can see their capabilities, not hear what they say they can do or rote facts they can recall on memory.
Every IT manager should read Peopleware and apply its principles wherever possible in their organization. Sadly, most companies lack leadership of that quality.
I know you probably know this, but I'll just throw it out there: there's really nothing wrong with night nursing for comfort, as long as it works for the family. Most babies don't need the calories once they've hit 6 months or doubled their birth weight (though I know this verges on old wives tale). But since we're biologically social creatures, we're designed to sleep closely with our family unit.
Nursing to sleep associations aren't always bad either, but if you want to break them, you'll have to go slowly over the course of weeks and even months. Chances are, one of you might still end up on the floor in the other kids room (especially if you go with any of the "No Cry Sleep Solutions" and it might affect the older brother's sleep, which will also affect yours...just a few things to keep in mind (I'm no expert, just another mom who's trying to figure it out too! :P)
I hope to move our baby into the toddler's room once she is older (like 16-18 months) and they can share a big queen sized bed (which is on the floor). I've been reading a lot of parenting blogs and websites about dos and don'ts but most of it ends up being about what works for each family.
So here's what we did with baby #1: When she was 14 months, we wanted to night wean because she was getting up more and more frequently (every 45-90 min) and I was exhausted because I work FT. We started the transition by nursing first at bedtime, followed by a bottle of warm cow milk while hubby read to her, swing/rock her and sing - we did this for a few weeks until it seemed like the habit was pretty entrenched. I would still get up and nurse her at night but after those first weeks (during which she started daycare too), we'd send Dad in as the first line of defense so that (if she was tired enough) she would just conk out on his shoulder just like at bedtime (same song and everything). She was pretty stubborn so most of the time, she would protest and fight sleep (waiting for me to come in and nurse her...which we eventually had to stop in one of those 3 day CIO sessions...shudder). After that, she was much better about putting herself back to sleep and Dad would still be the first one to go in if she did wake up.
Switching the roles at bedtime is key (and I've heard this from a LOT of parents). Dad has to step in and do the end of bedtime AND get up with the baby for night wakings while you transition them away from night nursing. If you (Mom) try to do it, the baby will just get frustrated, angry and anxious ("What did I do that she's not nursing me? She's right THERE? and she knows that's what we do at night....") We also found that having non-mama milk on hand was important because the bottle started to replace the nipple and could take the place of that (for sucking) when she was falling asleep - she never took a pacifier but that makes things a lot easier too. The cow's milk issue was one of the reasons we waited until LO was over a year but you could use a yogurt smoothie with banana or something too.
Hope that helps :)
Step one I think is to stop nursing to sleep, followed by night weaning :)
For the first part, what I did (and I was in a similar situation, nursed to sleep, then from 12-15 months kiddo started waking 5-6 times a night, it was extremely exhausting), was sit down in the rocking chair as normal, and nurse as normal, but just when he was about to fall asleep, I'd delatch. He'd fuss and I'd rock and croon and talk and sing, if he didn't calm down I'd relatch him, but then delatch again just as he was falling asleep and try to calm him by other means. Rinse and repeat, the first three days it was a long bedtime routine and I questioned what I was doing. But it really only took about a week to get him falling asleep without nursing.
The next step was to maneuver to falling asleep in his own space instead of my lap. Again I did it gradually, by the same method - just when he was looking sleepy I'd move him to his bed. If he cried, I'd shush and rub his back and talk and sing for a few minutes to calm him. If it didn't work, I'd pick him up and get him relaxed, and just when he was looking sleepy I'd quietly put him down again. Again, it was hard at first but after about a week he caught on and it became much easier.
Once he was going to sleep in bed and not nursing to sleep, the 5-6 wakeups a night were reduced to one waking, then getting up really early. Eventually I DID do some "cry it out" but since I'd already gotten him most of the way there it was very brief and not stressful.
The trick here is to get them going to sleep in the same conditions under which they will wake in the night. If they can go to sleep on their own, when they wake up on their own, they're much more likely to just relax and go back to sleep. If something changes (like you're nursing them to sleep, then they wake up and you're gone) it's very jarring, like if you fell asleep in your bed then woke up on the front lawn.
If that sounds good to you, I can tell you I read Dr Gordon's night weaning article, The No Cry Sleep Solution, and the Troublesome Tots website (I guess now it's called "precious little sleep"). I kind of put together things from those three sources and it made a huge improvement. It didn't 100% fix things and we still have some sleep issues but it was a HUGE improvement.
All kids are different, and ultimately you'll need to find what works for you, but The No Cry Sleep Solution by Elizabeth Pantley worked for us. The name can be a bit misleading; "no-cry" just means no "cry it out."
It has chapters on various ages and symptoms, and something might work for you. We ended up using combinations of a few techniques to find what worked.
Good luck.
BTW, every time I listen to a lecture/debate from John Lennox, I walk away with more books to read. Here's my list so far:
> Are atheist borrowing from the Christian worldview?
Yes! And hear's how: theists philosophers since Plato and Aristotle have painstakingly done the hard work to show that logic, morality and even science are justified in a theistic framework. However, most atheists just assume/adopt this same logic, morality and science without going back and painstakingly working out if atheism can justify these same hallmarks of theism.
One reason they are wrong to assume is the much of the greatest philosophers of all time have admitted materialistic atheism cannot justify these things, from Nietzsche to Kant to recently Nagel. (So this is not an isolated admission) Nietzsche even went so far as to confess:
> only if we assume a God who is morally our like can “truth” and the search for truth be at all something meaningful and promising of success. This God left aside, the question is permitted whether being deceived is not one of the conditions of life.
So yes, atheists just adopt while being ignorant of their own worldview's incompatibility with these principles that can be justified by theism. But ignorance is bliss I guess. :)
Have you read The Book of the New Sun by Gene Wolfe? It's got all the attributes you mention, and it's widely considered to be one of the best pieces of writing ever to come out of science fiction. Extremely subtle, extremely dark, has a good claim for featuring the fullest single character in science fiction altogether.
Gene Wolfe's The Book of the New Sun. Extremely well written, very complex and rewarding to those with a fondness for symbolism and narrative puzzles.
Also, A Canticle for Leibowitz by Walter M. Miller Jr. A classic, complex work about a future, post-apocalyptic society where scientific knowledge is carefully preserved by a holy order of monks.
I also recommend the book Peopleware
Depends what you want to learn. Some of my favorites are
This a good list to get you started :) most of my favorite books are not language specific.
If the Practice of System and Network Administration is a bit dated, check out The Practice of Cloud System Administration: Designing and Operating Large Distributed Systems, Volume 2, September 15, 2014, by the same author.
Might as well get the follow up:
https://smile.amazon.com/Practice-Cloud-System-Administration-Practices/dp/032194318X
The book is good, but again a little too Google focused.
To quote Thinking, Fast and Slow:
"success = talent + luck. great success = a little more talent + a lot of luck"
I have no doubts that you worked hard for your degree and that you have quite a bit of talent. But don't knock the fact that quite a bit of luck was involved in you getting the job you wanted straight out of college and that it was high paying enough to let you pay off your loans right away. My girlfriend has been a teacher for several years and she's been working with the school system since she got out of college. She finished her Master's degree in 2010. She still has at least a decade of payments left before she pays it off.
While you are right that the degree you choose can influence whether you can successfully pay them off in a reasonable time frame, it is by no means the only factor. Painting all of them as stupid crybabies is a disservice to them.
I once hosted a talent show. I had to announce a winner. I was handed three index cards with the names of the winners. I didn't screw it up, but I felt like I was about to. Here is a quick recap of some of the stuff I thought about in that moment:
I was onstage in front of hundreds of people. I had to come up with witty things to say off the cuff. I had to remember to stand in the light. I had to remember to hold the microphone at the right distance (too close causes interference, too far means no one can hear me.) I had to look out at an audience of people judge everything I did. I had to worry about whether a joke was going to land or not. I had to think about my delivery. I had to make sure I didn't say the names in the wrong order. I had to make sure I didn't drop the cards on the floor. I had to come up with something to do when the winners were walking up to the stage to collect the prize I was about to hand them. I had to make sure I didn't spend too much time staring at the cards (have you ever had shared an awkward silence with someone? Every second feels like an hour. This experience is like that on steroids.) I had to make sure I pronounced the names correctly.
All of this stuff flashed in my brain in the five seconds when I got the card and read the first name. I'm the kind of person who has to read and reread my emails three times before I send them to make sure I don't have any mistakes. Heck, I read and reread my Reddit posts multiple times before I post them. On stage in front of a large crowd, you don't have time to do any of that. You just get something in your head, and go with it.
If I had to read that card the same way that Steve Harvey did, I would likely have made the same mistake too. That card is a nightmare. It is the opposite of good design. It seems slightly confusing, but still clear when you are sitting at home without anyone judging or waiting for you, but under those lights everything moves at light speed. In a high stress situation, people use different reasoning. They rely on simple heuristics instead of clear logic. Fire exits are red and glow for a reason. Pilots have extensive training and labeled emergency buttons for a reason. When people are under pressure to make quick decisions, they think differently. Check out the book Thinking, Fast and Slow. It's written by a Nobel prize winner, and it really captures exactly why a pilot, surgeon, or live tv host could make such a seemingly stupid mistake. Unfortunately for that event, they didn't have anyone as competent as a pilot or surgeon. They had Steve Harvey, arguably the stupidest person I can think of.
Overall, having been in a similar situation, I think it's completely understandable that Steve Harvey screwed it up. Any jackass can be a Monday morning quarterback. But unless you've felt that kind of pressure before, I don't think it's a fair criticism.
Has anyone read his book? http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555/ref=la_B001ILFNQG_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1369672712&amp;sr=1-1
Thinking about picking it up and wondering if anyone liked it.
You are not alone in feeling this way. The way I think of it is I feel like I have the wrong kind of interpersonal Velcro for most people, so they just don’t stick like I perceive most other people stick to each other. It’s understandable for this to make one feel defective, and very alone.
I try to twist it and think of it as an advantage, I think the upside to this means that you can be capable of tremendous self-sufficiency. Invest in you. Take care of yourself even when you want more than anything for someone else to take care of you.
I’m also prone to beating myself over the head with painful facts like “everyone always leaves me”, “nobody loves me like I love people”, etc. these feel so true because you might not have instances to contradict these “facts”. But in truth this is a fallacy summed up as “what you see is all there is” by Daniel Kahneman in Thinking, Fast and Slow link. Just because everyone has left doesn’t mean everyone will always leave. There are billions of humans and we happen to be a tiny percentage who have this sensitivity, there are still millions of us and millions more who have the empathy and imagination to understand us to some extent. Don’t give up. Good luck.
If you want to get started sooner:
There is an author who has written about the coming century and his take on Mexico is:
Its economy takes off.
It's migrants to the US never integrate because unlike every previous wave of migration the migrants are crossing a land border and do not feel the same need to integrate as Irish or Italians or Indians with an ocean separating them from home.
This creates a tension, with CA, AZ, TX etc. becoming predominantly Hispanic, perhaps Mexico offering 2nd and 3rd generation diaspora voting rights at home.
At some point (e.g. the 2080s and beyond) the border states leaving the US and joining Mexico could start to look attractive. This seems unthinkable but in 1913 so did the idea of the US being the most powerful nation on earth.
He is not speculating sequelae, just identifying a future fault line.
Find your meditative spaces. I do the dishes, I drive, I ride a bike, I take showers, I wander around in nature, I sit and watch the world pass me by. Sometimes I think about what I'm doing, or about some unimportant or asinine thing, or nothing at all. Sometimes I'm productive and sometimes I'm not. Sometimes I'm self-actualizing and sometimes I'm not. That's okay. Pressuring yourself to produce is an excellent way to be unproductive.
These spaces are the only times when I formulate truly inventive ideas. They're places where I can let my mind wander and review what it knows and to bridge and connect and construct, and they're places where I feel no stress. I don't want my life to be chaotic and completely uncertain, but I also don't want the structure of my days to consist of anything more than meditative spaces and free time.
More people need to learn to walk slowly.
No problem, glad you enjoyed it.
If you are interested in game design, read The Art of Game Design by Jesse Schnell. At least skim it. It's great and gets deep into the emotion and psychology of game design.
For business stuff, I got a lot of input from the classic E-Myth Revisited. I won't say it didn't get boring, but the actual point of it (systematize EVERYTHING) is a really important concept to learn. That changed the way I do things and now we have systems for everything in the company.
Read Crossing the Chasm when you start getting traction. It's a very important book that answered a lot of questions for me.
Right now I'm reading Behind the Cloud by Benioff, and man, this book is also great. I had no clue they used a lot of fairly controversial tactics to get press and traction. It's a good read.
Online courses are really hit or miss. Most college courses on "business" don't really teach how to start or run a small business. They either teach big business... how to work in a large corporation... or how to create a startup. Both of those are markedly different from starting and running a small business (even an online one).
There are some great books about starting and running a small business, though. Here are a few of my favorites:
Financial Intelligence for Entrepreneurs
This is an excellent book on business finances for the non-accounting types. I took accounting classes in college but never really got what all the financial reports really meant to my business' health. This will teach you what's important in the reports, what you should look out for, and how to read them. This is critically important for a small business owner to understand, even if you plan to hire a bookkeeper and accountant.
The E-myth Revisited by Michael Gerber
Awesome book about building systems in your business to really grow it to the point where it's not just a job for the owner. It's easy to read and probably one of the top 5 business books of all time.
Entreleadership by Dave Ramsey
This is a good book and covers several different aspects of entrepreneurship from hiring and managing employees to marketing, setting the vision, etc. It's hokey at times, but is a good read.
The 7 Habits of Highly Successful People by Stephen Covey
Not necessarily a "small business" book, but easily my top #1 book recommendation of all time. It's hugely applicable to any professional, or anyone really. I re-read this book every couple of years and still get more out of it after almost 20 years.
Getting Things Done by David Allen
THE productivity book. Even if you only absorb and implement 25% of the strategies in this book it will make a huge difference in your level of productivity. It's really the game-changing productivity system. This is one of the biggest problems with small business owners - too much to do and no organization. Great read.
The Origin and Evolution of New Businesses
The E-Myth Revisited: Why Most Small Businesses Don't Work and What to Do About It
This just scratches the surface. It's not rocket science, but it's a lot.. it will take time. CONSTANTLY evaluate and look for things that can be improved.
Source: Started a few businesses, the current one being a filmmaking one.
I've read most of Kiyosaki's books and listened to the audio versions of him and after initially being swoon by him and the enthusiasm he drummed up in me by appealing to emotion, I later came to the conclusion he is a hack. He and Tony Robins has a similar style.
Gary Vaynerchuck is a decent alternative, though he does the same thing as Robert, but at least gives you something to work with.
E-myth was one of my favorite books to read about entrepreneurship mainly because it helps you realize what you're going to get into by working on your own thing. I can't recommend E-Myth Remastery though because it's very much a rehash of the original.
Grass is always greener... where there's shit all over the ground...
If beer making is a cathartic hobby to your well-paying day job, think long and hard as your hobby you enjoyed is now mandatory work that you must upkeep on a schedule, and you might need to have a significant bankroll when time get tough. Also, take a reasonable estimate of cost and double them, same with time to complete.
I also suggest reading the "E-Myth Revisited" which talks about how having the technical knowledge is not the same as having the business acumen to run a business. With "technical passion" being a notable driver for you, read this book as it makes distinctions between working on your business and working in your business. If you are leading the company, you
wontshouldnt be making the beer...Your location, your knowledge base, financial backing, prior experience in dealing with the management of resources (people, product inventory, logistics) will all play a huge part in your ability to pull it off. A SOLID marketing plan is critical as there are lots of new breweries popping up EVERYWHERE, and distinguishing yourself during your infancy is getting harder and harder to do. Not all will succeed.... cash flow is PARAMOUNT.
Anyway, good luck in your endeavors. I still wonder if this was the right choice for me.. hours are long and compensation low (but I have substantial equity!) but people like the product so I have that going for me.
Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman is a fantastic and (relatively) easy to read book about how the mind learns and makes decisions.
Some things never change.
I was in your shoes about 15 years ago as a wide eyed, broke new comer being told to invest in my business by experienced financial advisors with big books of business and money to burn. Fortunately for me I had a fantastic manager/mentor who helped me build a financially and professionally rewarding career. Here's what I learned to invest in early on:
So at this point in your career investing in your business could look like going for a 3 mile run in the morning, running an iron over your shirt, and role playing your sales pitch with your manager when no one is answering their phones. As business comes you can invest further with a mailing campaign and some door knocking. When that turns to money look at things like seminars. Your wholesalers will be happy to cover the cost of food and do a presentation so long as you can fill a room with prospects for them. Etc.
What /u/edmontonpi said.
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I'd highly recommend you read The E-Myth Revisited.
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I frequently tell people that I am a part-time investigator and a full time entrepreneur. I spend a majority of my time on bookkeeping, marketing, and correspondingly little investigation work. Most people want to do the work of being an investigator, and not doing the work of running and building a business, and owning your own firm is definitely the latter.
Amazon reviews
It's bullshit, in France it's much more complicated. Nobody but the racist and far-right are making everything they can to link and make a causality relation between the rise of rape reports and refugee crisis.
Right wingers love to interpret and use statistics as much as they can to make everyone believe their sick views on the world.
Even though, in general we are progressing, but that's thanks to the majority of humankind. There is a book I read that one of my old geopolitics teachers recommended us via email: check it out it's called "Factfulness : Ten Reasons We're Wrong About The World - And Why Things Are Better Than You Think".
While this won't reply to the rape questions, at least in France I can provide more links, if you're willing to right click > translate to English but it won't be perfect sadly. For a starter this is a decent article: https://www.liberation.fr/checknews/2017/10/04/ou-peut-on-trouver-les-chiffres-annuels-de-plaintes-pour-viol-d-affaires-resolues-d-affaires-passees_1652544
As you will see it's complex, and whoever tries to come here and say otherwise is 100% bullshitting.
Also notice how the people who always push these views act like we should take their word for it, never trying to back up their arguments.
Some books that come to mind:
The bigger problem is the first one - getting a good grounding in Marketing, as the fundamentals don't really change although the media does. Social media marketing is Marketing, and follows many of the same principles.
Would recommend taking a look at Josh Kaufman's book The Personal MBA (Amazon) and here's his list of 99 books from his website of which the marketing books listed there is a very good place to start.
You can basically waste a TON of time on the plethora of so-called 'social media marketing experts' who are experts at selling to others social media marketing 'secrets'. It's a bit of old-fashioned hucksterism that makes them a lot of money (true) but may not be all that worthwhile (unless you want to sell social media secrets for the future career).
As a professional marketer myself, having been in many roles in Marketing (and outside sales and product development), you've got to have a foundation to build on.
Even consider taking a MOOC from a reputable place on Marketing, it's a discipline of study for good reason, and then see how the social media part fits into it.
In my own situation, Large Mega Corp the revenue from Social Media is on the order of 1% (we track such things), while the web is on the order of 15%. We still have a direct sales force (we are B2B) and have events and exhibit at conferences; I have no illusions about all the marketing that needs to be done offline (where still many of our customers are).
Just my $0.02, FWIW.
It’s also an implementation of optimal stopping! It’s the first chapter in a book I’m reading called Algorithms To Live By.
The book is pretty neat so far, so I’d say it’s $12 worth spending, even if you hate to read and only skim through a few pages every other week (like me). It’s an easy-reading type of book, and doesn’t really go in to technical jargon.
It depends on what I'm reading. 20 for the average book is about what I can read. I've had things like What Every Programmer Should Know About Memory that I could only do 5 pages at best and things like Head First Design Patterns where I could do 40 or 50
An interesting side note is that I've also been reading books like Thinking, Fast and Slow that basically say that we have a finite amount of mental will power. We can only focus on a difficult task for so long before we run out of steam. The only way we know to improve focus this is by maintaining decent glucose levels. So you might be able to improve your limit by having a snack or breaking for something to eat.
I've also been reading Seach inside yourself. It's book on meditation written by a programmer at Google. I'm hoping to improve my focus with meditation. It might also let you bump up your number number of pages per-day or at least let you settle in to reading faster
Sorry to derail your post. It's Thinking Fast and Slow. The author won a noble prize for his discovery on how the mind works and this book summarizes his thought experiments. A fair warning however, I have never seen the world the same way again after that book.
>In the international bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions.
>Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble.
Never Split the Difference was pretty good. The author, Chris Voss, was the FBI's chief international hostage and kidnapping negotiator.
You're dealing with an adrenaline dump and it's a completely normal physiological response. Stress inoculation is about the only way to get "used to it." You put yourself in the same or similar situations to illicit the fight or flight response until it's no longer that big of a deal. Box breathing (inhale for a count of 4, hold for a count of 4, exhale for a count of 4, hold for a count of 4, repeat...) is a good technique to help regulate yourself in a stressful situation. Communication is key when trying to deesculate a situation. The FBI Behavioral Change Stairway Model is a good one and the book Never Split the Difference by Chris Voss is a good read to learn more about how to employ it. Turning it over to your manager was a good move.
Martial arts can help, especially the ones where you train against a resisting opponent, because you'll develop confidence in yourself and your abilities. Boxing, Muay Thai, wrestling and BJJ are ones I would recommend. From a self defense aspect awareness, avoidance and deesculation should be your primary "go to's" though.
Currently about 100 pages into Thinking Fast and Slow and it covers the psychology of how we think and learn.
Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow
The advice to "sleep on it" is not to be able to think about it at night, but to give yourself time to calm down from short term emotions that might be connected with a decision.
There is a book about decision making called ["Thinking Fast and Slow"] (http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555) with an explanation of how decisions can be made in those two ways, fast - intuitively, pretty much - and slow - using rational thought.
Both those approaches have their advantages and drawbacks, so you often can make a correct "fast" decision, but doing so will prevent you from checking back with the other thought process. So allowing you to do that is pretty much the value of "sleep on it".
If you haven't already, have a look at Thinking, Fast and Slow. The basic problem (AFAICT) is that, in practice, people judge risk based on how easy it is to recall an example, rather than statistical likelihood. With the media constantly harping on about a "mass shooting epidemic", this leads people to massively overestimate the risk of being a victim of a mass shooting, and because it's (what Kahneman calls) a "System 1" process (basically his term for "intuitive"), and because "System 2" processes (basically his term for "analytical") are very strongly predisposed toward concurrence with System 1 conclusions, it is almost impossible for data and reason to displace the intuitive presumption that mass shootings are a significant threat.
These are not finance books, but popular books on behavioral economics by leading academics
Daniel Kahneman, Thinking Fast And Slow (a classic, I think)
http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555
Richard Thaler, Cass Sunstein - Nudge
http://www.amazon.com/Nudge-Improving-Decisions-Health-Happiness/dp/014311526X
Dan Ariely - Predictably Irrational
http://www.amazon.com/Predictably-Irrational-Revised-Expanded-Edition/dp/0061353248
>I don’t regret having one, just extremely ashamed of being sexual and communicating it to girls and also showing it to the world. Attracting girls’ attention and whatnot isn’t very hard but progressing things to dating, holding hands and eventually sex is impossible. I can’t even call them or message them on Facebook or Whatsapp because I just feel like an idiot for doing so. Making a move in clubs and bars is also difficult although I once got close to leaving with a girl but she didn't want to. I got made fun of a lot growing up for not having a girlfriend and this made me feel like i do not deserve one. It doesn't matter if I've got the green light to go ahead I just feel really ashamed do it. Even something like looking at a fit girl wearing a short skirt makes me feel bad for checking her out and that I shouldn’t be doing it.
I know what you mean. I've been there myself, but even when I was there I was entirely self-aware of my shame and I was skeptical of the validity of my emotional reactions; I realized they were ingrained. Being aware of your emotional reactions allows you to be emotionally proactive. Your sex-negative problem is mostly an emotional issue, and not much else, right? I've been there. I wouldn't doubt that you are also decent looking and have both latent and actualized social skills. Most intelligent introverts have a lot of potential to be who they want to be because they know themselves more deeply than others. You must use your introverted nature to your advantage and recognize the differences in others and yourself. In all honesty, there are an infinite number of unwritten rules; everyone's abstract/emotional logic is different. Many of them are foundational and predictable, however; including yours and mine. Like anything else, being emotionally predictable is not a black/white issue. It is a grey area, and you have to balance your reliability with creativity.
Being made fun of for not having a girlfriend is just as sexist as being made fun of for not having a boyfriend; gender equal too. Were you ever shamed for not having a boyfriend? It's clearly a matter of groupthink and extroverted style; not for everyone. Dating relationships, for extroverts especially, are often attention-getting and showy. They wear their relationships like trophies won. Usually introverts prefer a more private relationship because they have less social desire and are often shamed because of it. Introverts are “themselves” more often in private. Extroverts are “themselves” more often in public. There is no shame deserved either way, regardless of popular opinion. Both styles have their strengths and weaknesses, and you should try to introject some of the traits that you enjoy in others; regardless of type. That is how you become balanced.
>I’m receiving counselling from a pastor who advocates the whole “no sex before marriage” thing and believes that people should only date to get married and sex is only for making kids which is stupid IMO because I do not plan on getting married anytime soon.
Counseling from a Catholic pastor? Watch out, that is one of the most notorious sex-negative societies out there. They own the abstinence-only charade while they parade horribles. Marriage is not the answer to anything; it is an institution of the state. Anything else attached is sentimental.
If you haven't already, I recommend doing an in-depth study of animal sexual behaviors; especially the most intelligent animals. All animals have sex for pleasure, but some animals are only driven to have sex at certain times of the year; humans are on a 24/7 system.
>I’ve tried the no fap route and gotten very high days counts but that hasn’t really helped me at all.
Sexual frustration doesn't help anyone. If you are mindful, then you can use your libido to further your goals, but it is not an all-cure.
>Got any sources to help overcome sex-negative perspectives? I’m interested in recreational sex not baby making sex.
Absolutely. I recommend starting with actual sex science and learning about male and female psychology and neurology. Then work your way into reading about sex culture. You should also study developmental psychology as you will probably need the clinical context in order to objectively self-evaluate your childhood influences; it is necessary for self-therapy. The best therapy will always be self-therapy; no one will ever know you better than yourself.
Evolutionary Science and Morals Philosophy:
The Selfish Gene
The Moral Landscape
The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined
Justice: What's The Right Thing To Do?
Sex Psychology, Science, and Neurology:
Bonk: The Curious Coupling of Science and Sex
The Female Brain
The Male Brain
Why Men Want Sex and Women Need Love
What Do Women Want
Why Women Have Sex: Understanding Sexual Motivations from Adventure to Revenge (and Everything in Between)
Sex: The world's favorite pastime fully revealed
Behavioral Psychology and Abstract Economics:
How Pleasure Works
Freakonomics
Quiet: The Power of Introverts In A World That Can't Stop Talking
Thinking Fast And Slow
We Are All Weird
Developmental Psychology:
Nurture Shock
Hauntings: Dispelling The Ghosts That Run Our Lives
Empathy Building:
Half The Sky
The House On Mango Street
Me Before You
The Fault In Our Stars
Also check out James Hollis' Understanding The Psychology of Men lecture if you can find it.
Movies: XXY, Tom Boy, Dogtooth, Shame, Secretary, Nymphomaniac, Juno, Beautiful Creatures, and The Man From Earth.
All of these things are related, but it is up to you to make the connections; pick and choose which material suits your interests best. These are the things that came to mind first, and they have all influenced my perspectives.
I do for two reasons. First, for the competition and challenge of it. I love developing a strategy and seeing how well I can execute it.
Second, its to improve my ways of thinking about problems. Board games are very fixed problems with strong rules. In particular, board games are helpful in identifying cognitive biases in ways I think about problems.
One direct application of this is what is known as the Gambler's Fallacy. I think this obviously shows up in social deduction games. For instance, he can't be a werewolf three games in a row.
A second application of this way of thought is Anchoring. In Anchoring we get fixed on the first line of thinking we see. This comes up in games all the time, but I think its most obvious in word games. We find one word we like and we build off of that, we rarely consider other words. If you've ever played Paperback, you have probably seen your group do this as you open up the table for assistance.
Selective perception is another example. In this case we see a strategy that worked for us in the past and we fixate on moves related to that strategy. We don't think outside the box.
I'm going to write up a full article on this, but if anyone is interested, Thinking Fast and Slow is a fantastic book on this topic.
>A lot of modern psychology and neuroscience appears to be neglecting the concept of the unconscious mind.... Psychology is so determined to get religion out of science that it cannot allow for the concept of the unconscious
I honestly cannot imagine how you came to this conclusion. There is no question at all among psychologists that unconscious processes play an important role in cognition. Every single popular cognitive psychology book I can think of (e.g. 1 2 3 4) discusses the importance of unconscious processes.
Offer a range, have the bottom end of the range be what you actually want. "I believe I can be an advocate for you in the company, and you could provide me with mentorship." (Gets them on your side by making them believe you're on their side.)
Listen to/read the first few chapters of this book, should only take a few hours: https://www.amazon.com/Never-Split-Difference-Negotiating-Depended-ebook/dp/B014DUR7L2
I've been reading some books on negotiation/sales/persuasion. All these fields come to the same conclusion that the best/only way to persuade someone is to have them feel they led themself to your conclusion. If you don't do that you will only polarize further.
The best car salesman merely helps you discover on your own how much you want/need the car. This requires intense listening and understanding their position at a deep emotional level and showing empathy with their position.
An amazing book for this is Never Split The Difference. The author was the FBI's top negotiator and dealt with revolutionaries and criminals with the most polarized worldviews you can imagine and breaks down how he got them to turn. Changed the way I interact with almost everyone.
Frame is a muddy concept that's able to be interpreted in multiple ways. It's hard to grasp because it means slightly different things to different people.
For me, frame is "the narrative a person has in their head about what's happening."
Different narratives can come into conflict; eventually, one will win out, when the other person starts to subtly accept the other person's narrative.
Useful books:
Frame Control
https://www.amazon.com/Frame-Control-Subconscious-Conversational-Dominance-ebook/dp/B014GMBQPK
When I Say No, I Feel Guilty
https://www.amazon.com/When-Say-No-Feel-Guilty-ebook/dp/B004IK8Q22/ref=sr_1_1?s=digital-text&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1505766023&amp;sr=1-1&amp;keywords=when+i+say+no+i+feel+guilty
Never Split The Difference
https://www.amazon.com/Never-Split-Difference-Negotiating-Depended-ebook/dp/B014DUR7L2/ref=sr_1_1?s=digital-text&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1505766002&amp;sr=1-1&amp;keywords=never+split+the+difference
Right now I'm reading Chris Voss's Never Split the Difference. It has some amazing negotiating tips, and I've had some luck already. The downside is that a lot of those tips come down to "learn to control your emotions", which I struggle with.
Since you asked for fiction, my recent favorite is Yaa Gyasi's incredible Homegoing: A Novel.
the no cry sleep solution i think is basically the pioneer of this technique so i'd start there.
> She will sleep for 45 minutes to an hour and a half in her crib
The sleep cycles of babies last between 30 and 45 minutes. Sounds like your daughter's cycles last 45. Whenever a cycle is ending, babies are easily aroused to wakefulness, or wake up themselves if they feel something is amiss. For example, my 11 month old will sleep 45 minute naps if he's by himself, but up to 2 hour naps if his mom sleeps with him. He will sleep long naps too if I'm holding him, as I think my heartbeat and breathing ease him. We co-sleep too and our baby "sleeps through the night" in the sense that he seldom becomes fully awake, but he very much fusses until he finds mommy's breast, sucks a few drinks and goes back to sleep. I tell you all this so that you don't think something is wrong with what you've been doing. In my opinion, you've been doing it perfectly well.
Since you need/want your baby to sleep by herself, have you heard of the No Cry Sleep Solution? Check it out. I've heard it requires a bigger effort than CIO, but is just as effective and you're not forcing your child to feel abandoned and suck it up.
I would suggest: Mind & Cosmos: Why the Materialist Neo-Darwinian Conception of Nature is Almost Certainly False by Thomas Nagel.
Here is the first few paragraphs of the summary/synopsis excerpt from Amazon if you are interested:
>The modern materialist approach to life has conspicuously failed to explain such central mind-related features of our world as consciousness, intentionality, meaning, and value. This failure to account for something so integral to nature as mind, argues philosopher Thomas Nagel, is a major problem, threatening to unravel the entire naturalistic world picture, extending to biology, evolutionary theory, and cosmology.
>
>Since minds are features of biological systems that have developed through evolution, the standard materialist version of evolutionary biology is fundamentally incomplete. And the cosmological history that led to the origin of life and the coming into existence of the conditions for evolution cannot be a merely materialist history, either. An adequate conception of nature would have to explain the appearance in the universe of materially irreducible conscious minds, as such.
>
>Nagel's skepticism is not based on religious belief or on a belief in any definite alternative. In Mind and Cosmos, he does suggest that if the materialist account is wrong, then principles of a different kind may also be at work in the history of nature, principles of the growth of order that are in their logical form teleological rather than mechanistic.
>
>In spite of the great achievements of the physical sciences, reductive materialism is a world view ripe for displacement. Nagel shows that to recognize its limits is the first step in looking for alternatives, or at least in being open to their possibility.
And on Thomas Nagel, per Wikipedia:
>Thomas Nagel is an American philosopher. He is University Professor of Philosophy and Law, Emeritus, at New York University,[1] where he taught from 1980 to 2016.[2] His main areas of philosophical interest are legal philosophy, political philosophy, and ethics.[3]
>
>Nagel is well known for his critique of material reductionist accounts of the mind, particularly in his essay "What Is it Like to Be a Bat?" (1974), and for his contributions to deontological and liberal moral and political theory in The Possibility of Altruism (1970) and subsequent writings. He continued the critique of reductionism in Mind and Cosmos (2012), in which he argues against the neo-Darwinian view of the emergence of consciousness.
A highly interesting and influential work on consciousness, which seems to be exactly what you're looking for. Let me know what you think!
Book submission: Shadow & Claw: The First Half of 'The Book of the New Sun' by Gene Wolfe
I have no idea what the French translation is like, but I usually feel that a lot is lost in translation with normal books, and with Wolfe where the specific wording is very important to be able to read between the lines or get the subtext I'd doubt that a translation works well.
But you can get them used very cheap off amazon.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/aw/d/0312890184/ref=ox_sc_act_image_1?smid=A23PVFCGFE1326&amp;psc=1
https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/aw/d/0312890176/ref=ox_sc_act_image_2?smid=A7CL6GT0UVQKS&amp;psc=1
There's several different edition, some are in four books. Most are in two, there's even a couple of omnibus versions. Used paperbacks on amazon sometimes go as low as £0.01 plus shipping, and shipping is not that expensive within Europe, especially if you can find all the books from the same seller and get a discount on shipping.
I have not even half the experience you have, but I can second this based on what I've seen and been guilty of myself. Bizarrely, developers have the analytic skills to understand psychology and business/economic issues, but often are too dazzled by the coding challenge to apply them. Also, programming has a strange reinforcing effect, where years of bashing away figuring out how to make things work reinforces your own ego, and without a reality check now and again you may end up convincing yourself you're the smartest person on earth. (I found the first 3 years or so of programming convinced me I was the most stupid person on earth, but that did reverse at some point.)
From what I've seen, developers don't necessarily stay like this. Most, with age and experience, start to see the bigger picture and make decisions based on the broader goals of a project. And having your fingers burnt needlessly reimplementing core libraries does eventually teach you why people share code in the first place. Having many young/inexperienced developers on a project is a big risk though, as chance of getting lost on a tangent is much higher.
I wish Peopleware was more widely read, that really opened my eyes to the issue of psychology in software.
Peopleware has an entire chapter on this, as I recall. Great book.
I found the O'Reily Linux Networking book to be very informative.
https://www.amazon.com/Understanding-Linux-Network-Internals-Networking/dp/0596002556/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1543153401&amp;sr=1-3&amp;keywords=linux+networking
Also here
https://www.amazon.com/Practice-Cloud-System-Administration-Practices/dp/032194318X/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1543153468&amp;sr=1-1&amp;keywords=cloud+administration
It's a metaphor, an old one, more recently redefined in Nassim Taleb's book.
This too
https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/081297381X/ref=mp_s_a_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1495498142&amp;sr=8-1&amp;pi=AC_SX236_SY340_FMwebp_QL65&amp;keywords=black+swan
It should really be: here's what happens when you focus too much _in_ your business, not _on_ your business.
The E-Myth is required reading to combat this.
The E-Myth Revisited by Michael Gerber
I agree with the other comments; this is a relationship issue. No amount of resources will help her if she refuses to use them. I suggest buying her a copy of the E-myth book because it sounds like she just wants to work for herself, instead of actually running a business.
My advice to you would be to isolate your finances from hers if you can do it without destroying your marriage. If her business goes down / gets sued, your (both of yours) money can go down with it even if she's under an LLC. Best of luck with this! Let me know how it turns out.
Presumably this book: http://www.amazon.com/The-E-Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses/dp/0887307280
(From googling)
> The E-Myth Revisited: Why Most Small Businesses Don't Work and What to Do About It
Surprised no one has mentioned Tversky & Kahneman yet. Kahneman was awarded the Nobel prize in economics for his pioneering work in behavioral economics .
Their most famous/accessible work is probably Thinking, Fast and Slow
Try: https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555
Check out Thinking, Fast and Slow by the Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman. It may not be what you're looking for since the investing/markets aspect is not the entire focus of the book. However, I think it would definitely be worth your time.
I would go with Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow". It can be rather tedious at times, but it's such a great summary of recent work in social and cognitive psychology that it's worth it.
Oliver Sacks, as mentioned before, is another great author. Very approachable, very interesting, yet quite informative.
I have heard that Dan Ariely is a great author. Predictably Irrational might be a great read.
Steven Pinker's How the Mind Works is also great, but I would recommend Kahneman over him.
Finally, I would recommend a classic: William James - The Principles of Psychology. It's old, and some stuff is dated, but the guy had amazing insight nonetheless. It'd be a great intro reading just to see where psychology came from.
I would stay away from Jonah Lehrer, since he was accused of academic dishonesty. His book "How we Decide" was an extremely easy read, and a bit watered down. On that tangent, I would also avoid Malcolm Gladwell. Sacks does a better job at explaining psychology and neuroscience to a general audience.
Hope that helps!
Also more complex than just telling people to read Thinking: Fast and Slow.
If you are going for a internet business or any product-oriented business here a are the best books
BEST ONES
"The Lean Startup: How Today's Entrepreneurs Use Continuous Innovation to Create Radically Successful Businesses" (Eric Reis) - 2011
https://www.amazon.com/Lean-Startup-Entrepreneurs-Continuous-Innovation/dp/0307887898/
"Running Lean: Iterate from Plan A to a Plan That Works" (Ash Maurya) - 2010
https://www.amazon.com/Running-Lean-Iterate-Plan-Works/dp/1449305172
"Sprint: How to Solve Big Problems and Test New Ideas in Just Five Days" (Jake Knapp - Google Ventures) - 2016
https://www.amazon.com/Sprint-Solve-Problems-Test-Ideas/dp/150112174X/ref=sr_1_1?qid=1550802301&s=gateway&sr=8-1
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ALSO GO FOR (these are the ones that started organizing the Startup world)
"The Four Steps to the Epiphany" (Steve Blank) - 2005
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0989200507/
"Business Model Generation" (Alexander Osterwalder) - 2008
https://www.amazon.com/Business-Model-Generation-Visionaries-Challengers/dp/0470876417/
This isn't exactly what you are asking, but a good psychology-related book that is written for the layman would be Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow
It is an interesting read that provides a lot of information about thinking.
I'm by no means a neuroscientist, but Veritasium made an interesting video based on the popular science book Thinking fast and slow by Daniel Kahneman.
> I've noticed the dotalikes(let's call the genre that for the sake of neutrality) get a lot of hate outside this sub.
I have three theories.
The first theory is that the opinion of the majority is not the same as the opinion of the overly visible gaming literati. I know that this is a fact based on smaller gaming genres, like tabletop roleplaying games, where recently a relatively popular thread indicated that too many people were talking about games like Fate and Dungeon World. Many people agreed.
However, looking at large community surveys and statistics released by the most popular online place to play tabletop roleplaying games we see that Fate only represents 1.65% of games and only 4.30% of all players are in those games, while Dungeon World only represents 1.84% of games with 4.55% of all players in Dungeon World games in the latter source (more comprehensive) and 4% of respondents playing Dungeon World and 5% of non-fantasy setting players and 4% of fantasy setting players playing Fate in the former source.
In other words, a lot of people really thought everyone was devoting way too much time to two games whose market shares are each less than 5%. Meanwhile, the two largest games - D&D and Pathfinder - combined are well over 50% market share.
This leads us to a probable analogous conclusion: the MOBA-haters are much louder online than simple demographics would suggest. This gels with most of what we know about online product reviews generally: only those who really hate or really love a product are likely to take the time out of their day to write up how much they love/hate the product, which leads to a polarization of online viewpoints.
Theory two is an extension, in some respects, of theory one: because MOBAs are so incredibly popular, while their proportion of haters remains about the same as most games (except for the addition of some hipsters who always hate popular things), their absolute number of haters is astronomically high.
Let's imagine for a minute that 1% of all people who play or hear about a game are driven to hate it online. A game with few players, like /r/totalwar of the Total War series, has persistent but relatively isolated griping as a result. If 1% of their subs complain about the game regularly, that would make for ~350 people: a significant portion in the Total War subreddit, where you would notice complaining on account of our earlier-established "haters are loud" theory above, but not a significant enough number to seriously bleed across to other more general subreddits.
In contrast, if 1% of /r/leagueoflegends, the League of Legends subreddit, complained about League, then that makes for 6,500 people. If "the 1% of League subscribers that complain about League" was a subreddit, it would be in the top 3200.
Other extremely popular games, like Call of Duty, seem to act in evidence of this theory: they receive a huge absolute degree of hate.
Theory three is that there is something about MOBAs that leads to direct competition and animosity. MOBAs are notoriously hardcore competitive games, being not just the most popular video games on earth, but also the ones with the largest tournaments. The two largest ones are also notoriously nearly identical.
We know that the brain tends to cook facts to retrospectively justify its choices, focusing on the benefits of your choice while downplaying the detriments, especially when that choice is largely irreversible and largely important (for more about how people react to making choices see Daniel Gilbert Stumbling on Happiness and Barry Schwartz The Paradox of Choice). MOBAs, by being so competitive, are naturally time intensive, especially among the gaming literati who tend to discuss games online and be part of the core gamer demographic. This makes the decision to play, say, League of Legends rather than DotA 2 subject to a host of natural heuristics that lead us to become "stuck" with our choice: the sunken cost heuristic, for instance. (For more about decision making heuristics see Daniel Kahneman Thinking, Fast and Slow).
When you combine these effects, you get a set of people who are:
Combined, I believe these three theories lead to this demographic, described above, displaying what appears to be a larger-than-normal degree of hate online.
I found out about this in The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Leonard Mlodinow. The lawyer hedged his bets on statistical probability ...and in 99 other parallel universes he would have come out on top. Just the luck of the draw.
If anyone has a passing interest in probability, or mathematics, or just general weirdness, I can't recommend this book enough.
The Art of Deception: Controlling the Human Element of Security
What Every BODY is Saying: An Ex-FBI Agent’s Guide to Speed-Reading People
Manwatching: A Field Guide to Human Behavior
How to Win Friends & Influence People
Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion
Games People Play: The Basic Handbook of Transactional Analysis
The 48 Laws of Power
Factfulness by Hans Rosling
https://www.amazon.com/Factfulness-Reasons-World-Things-Better/dp/1250107814
You're not wrong. The timeframes vary based on what societal dimension you're discussing at a given point, but many aspects of global society are significantly better today than in the recent and distant past. Education levels, equality, access to food, mortality rates, life expectancies, literacy, and so on.
I'd you're not familiar with it, I'd recommend the book Factfulness. Pretty good book on this topic of perspective vs reality.
(Edit - fixed link)
May I recommend this excellent book to you:
https://www.amazon.com/Factfulness-Reasons-World-Things-Better/dp/1250107814
:D
I believe this is from Factfulness.
https://archive.org/details/FactfulnessByHansRosling/page/n47
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https://www.amazon.com/Factfulness-Reasons-World-Things-Better/dp/1250107814
This is less of a UX market issue than it is about understanding how to negotiate salary. This may be a little late for this offer, but this book is amazing: "Never Split the Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It" https://www.amazon.com/Never-Split-Difference-Negotiating-Depended-ebook/dp/B014DUR7L2 (edit to add link)
> Common sense tells us that if you're so poor that you can't afford $0.80 condoms, you probably shouldn't be having sex at all and risking getting some woman pregnant.
Common sense tells us that if you're in the econ sub you should have at least an econ101 understanding of how the world works.
Start with this and work your way forward. It might be challenging for you because its an actual book written by an educator and scientist. Not an angry conspiratorial youtube video, Brietbart article, or Twitch stream. But I believe in you!
Not a course, though I heard this is a good one https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555 (the book is about cognitive biases). The author is an economist and psychologist at the same time, even got Nobel Prize in economics.
Don't really know if this is type of thing you are looking for.
Well said. I would just like to take your point about how poorly informed people are a bit further to one about psychology and decision making: One of the best books I know for understanding the thinking of Republican conservatives and Trump supporters is the book, Thinking, Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman (who won the Nobel Prize in economics for his research).
Namely, they have only developed their "fast" thinking abilities: i.e. prejudices, and emotional, 2-valued (Yes/No, Good/Evil) gut-reaction decision making. And they are terribly poor at "slow" thinking: i.e. complex, abstract, critical and lengthy calculations in a multi-valued space of uncertainty (e.g. probabilities and statistics, etc.).
And this has created a nasty game of Hawks vs Doves (i.e. Assholes vs Cooperators) that the political left needs to develop a better, broad political strategy in playing.
It's very difficult to get around it.
You have to stay very focused on a goal. For me, since ROM7, it's been to finish every match I play. Has that happened? No, but I understand the situations it has not and I'm very pleased with how things have been going.
It also helps if you read autobiographies or books on sports psychology (or psychology in general) to get ideas & techniques on how to better your mentality.
Here are some that have helped me immensely.
PS. I'm not telling you where, but if you don't want to create a book collection PDFs of each of these may or may not be online.
Some ideas from self-help books might resonate with certain people, so in that sense, they're not a scam. Personally, I've gotten more from books that aren't specifically "self-help," but focus more on a certain topic and help shine a light on why we think the way we do and some potential ways to change that way of thinking. A few examples:
The Power of Habit
Thinking Fast and Slow
The Like Switch
I also read The Subtle Art of Not Giving a Fuck and got nothing out of it, but I see lots of glowing reviews for it, so some people must have enjoyed it.
Good and Real by Gary Drescher. Covers a similar philosophical stance to that of Yudkowsky in the Sequences, but with more academic rigor. A fun read that goes over computation, decision theory, morality, and Newcomb's Problem (among other things.)
Thinking Fast and Slow Daniel Kahneman's lifetime of research in heuristics and cognitive biases condensed into one epic volume. Highly engaging and 100% recommended if you aren't well-versed in this area.
A Mind for Numbers by Barbara Oakley. A scientific approach to studying, looking at good memory tricks, ways to learn better, and some interesting ideas on procrastination (including characterizing it as a malign reward loop).
I'll recommend some books that I'm reading right now
Thinking, fast and slow by Daniel Kahneman
Dragons of Eden by Carl Sagan
Broca's Brain by Carl Sagan
Surely you're joking, Mr Feynman by Richard Feynman
Why Nations Fail by Robinson and Acemoglu
In Afghanistan's Shadow: Baluch Nationalism and Soviet Temptations
The Terrorist Prince: The Life and Death of Murtaza Bhutto
There is a great book called Thinking, Fast and Slow by Nobel prize winner Daniel Kahneman that lays out a description of the brain as having two systems.
Sytem one is fast and automatic, operating below the level of what we think of as 'consciousness.' This is what sets your walking pace, or interprets the facial expressions of others, or plays out a movement from muscle-memory. The type of information it deals in is things like 'really hard effort.'
System Two is slow, deliberate, and reflective. It's what you use to do complicated math problems, or cue a part of a lift you aren't automatic at yet. (Spread the floor!) It's also how your brain reflects on what it's doing. (I shouldn't be rude to my Mom.)
You have a finite amount of bandwidth and these systems are trading it back and forth all the time. What's likely happening when you 'blank out' during a tough set of DL is that your system one is so over-taxed that it's recruiting all the power from your system 2. When you 'came to' your System 2 turned back on.
The same thing happens when you're hiking on a trail, see a bear, run away, and only then 'feel scared' and have a chance to reflect and realize what happened. System 1 became the boss for a while during a period of extreme stress. Same as with deadlifting.
tl;dr - You are going full instinct.
I think:
In particular, I'd encourage you to read a book called "Thinking Fast and Slow" by Nobel-prize-winning-psychologist Daniel Kahneman. In it he goes into great depth about the way that our brains often substitute difficult decisions (like "who should I vote for") subconsciously with easier ones (like "who do I have a better general impression of") and I feel that's the playground we should be operating in.
Supply and demand works if we are perfectly rational actors. But there is considerable evidence that we're not: see Predictably Irrational and Thinking, Fast and Slow. Salary in particular is known for irrational behavior. See the discussion of motivation in Drive or the short version in Daniel Pink's TED talk. Programmers are already fairly well paid and while I would certainly love to be paid more, I'm not convinced that alone would significantly increase the supply of developers.
The evidence for the talent gap is both anecdotal--every company I've worked at and many others I've interacted with complained extensively about lack of good developers--and some limited data (example 1, example 2), though it's not clear how to properly measure something like this.
Finally, I'm not sure that merely having 10x skill is enough to guarantee 10x pay. Perhaps in a perfect market with perfect knowledge and perfectly rational actors, it might be, but that's not how the real world works. You need not only 10x skill at your job, but also at turning that into money, which may be a completely different set of talents. For example, a 10x writer might make less money than an average writer if that average writer had their book turned into a popular teen movie. Similarly, the way for a programmer to make 10x the money is usually not to focus on salary (although there were some stories of Google and FB offering millions to retain some developers), but equity. And there, an exec-level programmer can get 10x the equity of a normal dev, though there is obviously a lot of luck as to whether the equity ends up paying off.
My political opposition isn't along a left/right axis but people who are dogmatic in their thinking. Left, right, middle; I don't care so long as you can recognize and temper your own biases. (I'm such a "neutron.")
Therefore, I like You Are Not So Smart by David McRaney. It's written (appropriately) for the general audience and is affably conversational in tone.
If they're hungry for more, the next book would be Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman for the way it breaks down fast and slow systems of thinking.
Either book should be part of a Neutral Politics recommended reading.
It's an interesting question and I think for a lot of people they can just take a glance at it and "know". As unscientific as it sounds, it can be more accurate than you think. There's a book called Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman that explains this phenomenon quite well.
The Black Swan, by Nassim Taleb
Catching the Big Fish, by David Lynch
A note on the second choice. I know it's not standard non-fiction fare, but I'm a huge Lynch fan and I really enjoy this book. It's short and I think reading it would benefit anyone. He was an Eagle Scout for Christ's sake!
For candles I really like the overview on Incredible Charts.
Investopedia is a great resource for pretty much anything related to trading. Many people also recommend BabyPips for learning the basics.
I don't have any books recs from personal experience, though I see Random Walk Down Wall Street and The Black Swan recommended around here often.
Trying stuff out on a chart yourself is often the best teacher. Check out cryptowat.ch for basic tools and tradingview.com for more advanced stuff.
Good luck!
>Also just to be fair, look at where this hero-based FPS style got Quake into, there is a reason why Blizzard made the most successful game in the genre, while others suffer from lack of development and direction.
Overwatch and Quake are NOT in the same genre. AT ALL. Overwatch is just as much an arena shooter as, say, Counter-Strike or Call of Duty are; which is to say not at all. You're making the same mistake everyone else is making in starting with incredibly superficial aspects of each game, namely that they have classes, and creating "genres" based on that rather than the actually significant gameplay differences between them (And they must be based on gameplay, since none of these games have any significant story elements in their actual runtime).
Overwatch is so far removed from traditional objective shooters, namely in how efficient use of abilities plays a much larger role in success than raw shooting skill than in virtually any other first person objective game that comes to mind. A large number of the classes don't even require any "FPS" skills, and instead have analogues in asymmetric strategy games and the like.
Quake Champions may be small, yes, but it IS attracting more people than just the quake crowd. On a technical level, it's an excellent blend between an archetypal arena shooter, the sort of game design Quake invented, while reducing complexity and convolution to make it much more approachable for those with more modern shooter habits. Lawbreakers, too, hardly suffers from any "lack of direction" in the design department. It's packed to the brim with great ideas and unique takes on the "high-skill FPS" concept, and had my jaw hitting the floor with respect for its elegant gameplay several times when I started playing it.
Success has far more to do with randomness and luck than most people in this thread seem willing to admit. Quake, Overwatch, and Lawbreakers AREN'T significantly better or worse than each other. No hypothetical backfit narrative properly explains why one would have hypothetically failed or succeeded without luck. We just live in a works where the big take the whole pie and the small get nothing; in a world of bandwagoning and herd mentality caused by popularity coming from whatever just happens to gain traction early on in its lifetime.
I bought in relatively early to all of these games because I'm a shooter fan and a nut for unique game design ideas. I will admit that I like Quake the most, Lawberakers second, and Ovwerwatch third, so I do have a little voice in the back of my head that gets irritated whenever others disagree with that assessment, but we all need to learn to come away form making simple judgements between them and other games in the same boat. All of them break the mould in different and unique ways, all of them have good ideas, and all of them could have been popular, in a world where luck happened to favor someone else.
The volatility in the marketplace has been fairly predicted in the previous months. Interest rates rose from the Fed, temporary trading restrictions overseas in China had been lifted, oil prices are plunging, etc. In general, sticking with an index like the S&P is a sound investment for longterm growth and sustainability.
I work in finance, and one of the very best books on investment is hands down A Random Walk Down Wall Street. I highly recommend it. I also recommend The Black Swan and The Misbehavior of Markets.
http://www.amazon.com/The-Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness/dp/081297381X
I really liked the ideas presented in the beginning of the book (improbable events have big effects on our lives, but we have a hard time recognizing that) but got totally lost in a set of made-up examples that weren't clearly presented as fictional.
If you want to get a good insight into similar ideas, I'd recommend Thinking, Fast and Slow.
Check out The Black Swan if you're looking for books in that same vein.
> Hi--I am considering law school and want to focus my studies on LLCs, Corporations, wealth and liability protection, etc...
You are an undergrad? If you want to be a lawyer, study an actual applied topic, now, while you can - and that means not government or english. Economics, computer science, any natural science, most social sciences, history, anthropology. Law is a tool set that without historical context, knowledge of the world at large, horse sense and business savvy is almost completely useless. So unless you are learning actual things, law school isn't going to teach them to you. If you are already out of college, it is not too late. You just have to teach yourself.
I'm exceedingly lucky to have the job I have. And I would not recommend entering this law job market. And one of the primary reasons I actually got this position is before even entering law school I had pretty deep knowledge about the types of business I cared about - I had a background in software and a very high level of financial sophistication for an early twenty something.
If you really want to go to law school, I have to say, it is not a very good investment unless you get in to a t14, get offered a near complete scholarship, have a very unique angle into an industry that you have a pre-existing matching skill set for and the passion to match, or a combination of all of the above. If you are lacking all three of the above, your money and time is far, far, far better spent doing other things.
And if you really want to learn about:
> Corporations, wealth and liability protection, etc...
You won't learn a damn lick of it in law school. You will learn the casebook method. And you will learn all about regulations, formalities, and a whole bunch of shit. But if you are interested in business strategy, which is what it sounds like you are, you can start learning about that now. Start by reading non-fiction business books. And I don't mean bullshit strategy, management or advice books. Use those for kindling. I mean read books about actual businesses, written by serious investigative journalists and businessmen. Here's a short list to get you started:
Just get started, and keep reading. Read about real world businesses - don't read guidebooks about how to do X. See what is in the world and go read it. Are there publicly traded companies that you find interesting? Log on to Edgar and read their public filings. They tell you every goddamn detail of how the business is run, the strategy, the risks they face and how they choose to mitigate them.
Once you get started on this stuff, you will be drawn in and be able to keep up your own research paths. Follow the people on twitter that you find interesting - a lot of VCs are very vocal. Many publish reading lists. Look them up.
But for the love of god, don't think law school will teach you any of this. Corporate law, securities law and corporate finance will teach you the technicalities of all sorts of bullshit you will likely never apply, and, if you do, you will be as good at it as you would be at basketball after having spent three years studying the rules without ever having touched a ball.
Good luck, dotcomrade.
I've read a lot of business books in the past year. These include:
7 Habits of Highly Effective People
Rich Dad Poor Dad
Think and Grow Rich
How to Win Friends & Influence People
Secrets of Closing the Sale
How to Master the Art of Selling
The E-Myth Revisited
The Compound Effect
The Slight Edge
The $100 Startup
The Toilet Paper Entrepreneur
I have 4HWW waiting to be read, in addition to about 15 other books that are sitting there, waiting to be read.
The $100 Startup is very inspiring, especially for people who have no chance at securing a "normal" job (I dropped out of college). The Toilet Paper Entrepreneur is also very informative. But out of this list, by far, my two favorite books are The Compound Effect and The Slight Edge. #1 going to The Slight Edge. Read this book. Maybe it won't apply to everyone as much as it did to me, but it totally changed my attitude towards life.
Without knowing more about your current financial situation (current net income and net worth, goal net worth and net passive income), it is hard to comment on what may be the strongest investing strategies for you.
If I assume you have basically nothing (no assets and no debt), then for you to be financially free in 10 years (lets say 2M net worth, 75K passive net income/yr) will almost certainly require you to either have a VERY high income and savings rate from now until your goal age or to build something of significant value you can sell to fund your freedom. I suppose you could speculate a bunch in the market and wind up winning big, but the prevailing opinion is that you might as well go to Vegas and put it all on black if that is your overarching strategy.
My opinion, is that if you want to achieve financial freedom by 30 (and are starting from nothing today), than you are best off building a business and spending your time increasing its value. This is not a path for the faint of heart, and a lot of people who try quickly find out they are not up, but if you want to get out of the rat race in such a short time span it may be a good option. Maybe check out this book. I have found it useful, and it does a decent job explaining why systems development is key to the success of most businesses.
Real estate may also be a good avenue for you to look into as well. If you do go that route, understand that the majority of your profit on a real estate investment will be based on buying heavily undervalued assets. Finding motivated sellers is essential (people moving right away, kids squabbling over their dead parents house etc.) and you need to be extremely conservative when analyzing potential buys. Also, property management is very demanding and more complex that it may appear so be prepared for that.
Good luck!
> Your job now owns you.
In the short term, yes. But it doesn't have to be that way for the long term. And by short term I mean a couple of years, not 10 or 20.
Compare it to a professional athlete, who trains like hell even in the offseason. They only have a short window of opportunity to excel, so the sacrifice is worth it if it pays off (granted, it doesn't always).
There are tons of books and web sites about how not to fall into the self-employee trap. One that comes to mind is The E-Myth though it's probably a little out of date.
There are jobs, and there is work. I get fulfillment from my work, but it took me a while to figure out what exactly fulfills me. I know that I need to work the rest of my life. Retiring and hitting the golf course every day would make me suicidal.
I started a freelance web design business about 5 years ago. Within a year or so I had doubled the income of my FT job.
Now I help people learn to do the same at https://selfmadewebdesigner.com
I agree with refractal. Sales is a muscle you’ve got to build. And pay your taxes 🤣
One way you can start is by reaching out to people you know that have businesses and could use your skills. Practice your pitch on them.
Since they have a relationship with you all ready it’s not as a big a deal if you flop the pitch.
I think a lot of people have a problem with sales because they feel like they’re trying to pull one over on something.
Like you’re a multi level marketer convincing someone to get on the ground floor of this amazing deal.
A sales conversation is all about building a relationship with someone and seeing if you can help them. Don’t hide your limits and don’t over promise.
If you walk into it just wanting to care for and do what’s best for the person you’re talking to then it’s tough to get it wrong.
A good book to read is called Never Split the Difference
I am so sorry. That sounds so incredibly hard. I completely understand. My son (a year next week!) is also not the best sleeper (I’m talking up for 3 hours needs to be bounced on a yoga ball in the carrier for hours kind of shit).
BUT, it’s been sooooo much better for the last month or so. This is what helped us;
-The No Cry Sleep Solution
-Doing something everyday, in the morning. It’s a mix of playschool, the daycare at the gym, playgroup, grandparents. Basically, he needs something stimulating every morning.
-Moving to one nap, in the afternoons.
-A solid and long night routine (for us: dinner, bath, pjs, play, move to a dim room, books, boob, massage, sometimes boob again, then sleep— which comes in the form of me laying with him while he flops around a while).
I don’t know if it’s something you can do with a toddler as well, but, we have found that our guy needs about an hour between the start of books until he’s wound down enough to sleep.
Book of the New Sun and Book of the Long Sun series by Gene Wolfe
it might be based on the fact that The Book of The New Sun is the greatest fantasy/Sci/fi Novel written since Tolkien. (IMO, of course)
But his other work can be hit or miss. I've found the short stories to be good as is the novel Peace. But if you haven't read Book of the New Sun...1st of all I'm Jealous, and second of all don't even bother with his other works until you've finished it.
Shadow & Claw--1st Book Of The New Sun
These books are more theoretical and about self growth as a well-rounded designer, if you want game theory others listed some great ones like Rules of Play and Book of Lenses. That said, here's my list:
It's more of a broad game design book since it talks about all the pipelines / processes of all departments coming together, with an emphasis on scripting / level design for crafting experiences. Portion of the book uses Unreal Engine 2 as a reference, but you can probably use UE4 or something else to follow along the actual game design lessons he's teaching and not have the take away be a technical tutorial.
I cannot describe how invaluable this book is, if you're only to get one from the list it'd be this one. While it does covers Pixar's history as a frame of reference for a lot of stuff, it's also more importantly about their ideology for fostering creativity, productivity and work/ life balance -- all of which are important and can be applied to Game Design.
I read this one after Gabe Newell recommended it one of his interviews and it was at a time in my career when I was working at a AAA studio struggling with the corporate forces that got in the way of creativity / productivity. It was one of those that changed me as a developer. It's more from a management point of view, but seriously applicable if you are collaborating with other people in game development, either on the same level as you or those who rely on your work to do theirs. Or if you are going to work at studio, AAA or indie, it's also an insightful book to evaluate whether the culture cultivated by management is in your best interest so that you have the tools to do your best work without burning out.
This one is like Peopleware but not as exhaustive, it's an easier read since it's a compilation and edit of blog posts the authors wrote on their old website 37signals. It's more or less about getting stuff done and filtering out noise, simplifying things to make results better -- this one is relatable for planning game project milestones. A lot of it will sound like common sense that a lot of people may say they already know, but it's surprising how many don't actually practice it.
And [The Practice of Cloud System Administration: DevOps and SRE Practices for Web Services] (https://www.amazon.com/Practice-Cloud-System-Administration-Practices/dp/032194318X)
This is more of an operational problem and less of a programming problem. The troubleshooting aspect is about the only thing problem related, i.e. stack traces, perf, flame graphs, and logs on the programming side.
The operational side is how do you keep the program running adequately and the simple answer is to detect when it fails automatically, and have a new process start if its failed. So healthchecks, triggers, siem, and probably a cloud based 3-4 tier topology (load balancers, orchestration [docker], app, databases/fileshare [state]) if it needs high availability or the ability to scale.
The Practice of Cloud System Administration is a must have for a starting point in developing resilient services.
"The Practice of Cloud System Administration" is my bible. Every time I have a question like this, I find the answer in here.
https://www.amazon.com/Practice-Cloud-System-Administration-Practices/dp/032194318X
here you go: https://www.amazon.com/Never-Split-Difference-Negotiating-Depended/dp/0062407805
"Never Split the Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It" by Chris Voss is excellent. I have used the techniques taught in this book in many aspects of my life. Negotiating is such a handy skill to have - saves you money, helps you navigate conflict, and helps you keep your calm. https://www.amazon.com/Never-Split-Difference-Negotiating-Depended/dp/0062407805
Good luck u/GameofCHAT selling a business is a lot of fun and will hopefully net you guys some cash while making you much better at building your next business.
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If the buyer knows that you intend to wind the thing down, it puts you at a considerable bargaining disadvantage as he knows that you are basically working to minimize your losses. I think that the last bit of /u/drunkengolfer's post is the most salient. Your buyer will be looking at this transaction through the lens of what it would cost him to acquire that many customers. You can charge a premium for bundling them together, but that's likely the extent of it.
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Curious to ask, has he made an offer? Has he acquired other cleaning service books of business in the past? If that's the case, you should have no problem getting him to put out the first few offers and negotiate with himself. "How do I know what's fair here? Help me understand," etc.
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Also, read this book ASAP. Calibrated questions and mirroring (tactics from the book) are very much your friend if you're going into a situation where you have a disadvantage in terms of experience and sophistication.
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https://www.amazon.com/Never-Split-Difference-Negotiating-Depended/dp/0062407805
Fwiw, I sold a business on a similar scale (less than 100k) last year and have bought two others since.
Also a "Windows" DevOps guy.
I'd recommend this .NET Rocks podcast episode. It's a pretty healthy way of look at the meta.
Yeah, speaking as a co-sleeper, it only works if everybody involved is on the same page.
OP, we're starting to transition our LO to his own bed and I've been reading the No-Cry Sleep Solution. She has some good ideas for transitioning from co-sleeping to independent arrangements.
I was actually terrified to cosleep until I did some reading on it. [Dr James McKenna](Sleeping with Your Baby: A Parent's Guide to Cosleeping https://www.amazon.com/dp/1930775342/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_1zNyyb9HW4PR9) is the leader on cosleeping studies in the US. I read this book before I started cosleeping. Cosleeping was necessary for us to get through the night.
Also, Dr Sears has some insight on cosleeping and SIDS
Dr Sears
Finally, when you want to ease your little one into their own bed gently, The No Cry Sleep Solution has some great advice. I used this book like an Manuel during my first year of parenting.
I'm a cosleeper and a big advocate of education of safe cosleeping. That doesn't mean cosleeping is right for you and your family. I just wanted you to have some reading material from people who have actually studied the effects of cosleeping.
PS: My best friend's baby died of SIDS, not cosleeping. So I am very familiar with how awful it is and her situation was so terrifying to me going into motherhood. I spent a great deal of time searching for answers about SIDS, as did my friend. The truth is, there are risk factors, but no known causes.
Good luck to you. I hope you and your family get some rest!
I am one of the "<1 baby has no wants, just needs" camp, although 1 is pretty arbitrary. I just can't imagine that an infant has the wherewithal to distinguish between the two ... yet.
I am so grateful to have a good sleeper, because I know if I were in your shoes, I would be a sleep-deprived zombie who spent the whole night with her finger in her kid's mouth.
The way I see it, he needs comfort and you need sleep. You've got to do what you can to balance those needs, or you'll go crazy and that's no good for him, either.
I've heard a number of folks say that by 6 months if a baby is at a good weight, there's no nutritional reason he should NEED to eat during the night, so he probably needs some help learning how to self soothe. My doula highly recommended this book over Ferber's CIO, largely because she knows I can't stand the thought--she says CIO totally works, too.
Good luck to you! So sorry you're having such a rough time.
> Well, it's important to first understand where the burden of proof lies.
Question is if it indeed lies with theism.
The burden of proof does not always fall on people who make a statement about something existing.
For example if I claim "the world is not real but just an illusion" or "the laws of nature do not exist they are only illusions", etc... I am rejecting the existence of something, but I thing common sense would lead us to think that such statements are not the "default" and thus the person denying the existence of the world has the burden of proof.
Atheists are quick to put the burden on theism, but atheism and hard agnosticism make several statements, some positive some not, that DO imply a certain view of the world that really are really problematic.
The most common is naturalism (or worse, reductive materialism) which has a lot of problems which even leads some atheists to reject it (which raises a lot of problems if one wants to remain atheist) or accept the idea that we ourselves are illusions (or rather our minds) and other apparent absurdities, which again are problematic on many levels.
So yeah, accepting atheism to it's full logical conclusion, as Alex Rosenberg does in the book I link above makes atheism less of a default position than one might want to.
...
>That being said, there are common proofs against the idea of a god. For example, in Euthyphro, one of Plato's dialogues,
Euthyphro dillemma is not a problem for Classical theism (which is what philosophers Aquinas fall under and what most Christian, Jew, Islamic and some others like some Hindu and Jainist have historically held and many still do). It works at best for certain moieties of theism, perhaps including some protestant "theistic personalism" views that are somewhat popular today.
Not to bog down the discussion I'd defer to philosopher Edward Feser (and the mountain of literature on the subject too) who aptly explains why Euthyphro dillemma is a false dilemma and not really problematic why raising Euthyphro dillemma is basically showing one has not done his homework regarding theism... and really an argument only pop-atheist make since it works against people who have no training in philosophy and theology.
Same goes with another pop-argument from evil which is today mostly an appeal to emotion and not a logical problem.
...
>Likely the best proof against an omnipotent god is that there are metaphysical rules which go beyond god, and therefore god is not everything. An example of these rules is that the creation must abide by the laws of the creator.
What would be these metaphysical rules?
Such claims you make now again might work for "god as a mere being among other beings" view, but does not work for Classical Theism, where God is not "a being", but rather being itself, or Ipsum Esse Subsistens as Aquinas would have put it (althoug he was not the only or first one), hence it makes no sense to talk about "metaphysical rules which go beyond god" at all.
...
> What I should have said is that it is inherently illogical to believe in god because all proofs are fallacious in nature.
Only they aren't and every single time I hear a refutation it's always some sort of lame strawman, like for example Dawkins "refutations" in "The God Delusion", where he only proves he does not even understand what is going on (like most of the book).
Also as I have said elsewhere, the five ways in the Summa are merely sketches. Aquinas goes in further detail elsewhere on some of the proofs but many other Thomists and philosophers in general have worked on them.
So the claim "because all proofs are fallacious in nature" is the equivalent of "if evolution real then why monkey exist?" that some anti-evolutionary crackpots raise.
More serious atheists like JL Mackie who dealt with them seriously were not so dismissive (and some of their criticism has been very useful to theists as well).
>If you believe it IS logical, then provide the argument and I will disprove it.
Problem is that just like you do not explain evolution convincingly in 1 page, arguments for God also require space.
Since I mentioned Feser above I would link to one of his books where he presents five proofs (which are not the five ways), including various objections and answer to such objections.
If you are really interested read through it (instead of just finding uncharitable reviews which anyone can do). If not, then there is no point for discussion.
More importantly, as I said elsewhere, to understand one must read the actual arguments of the people defending a certain idea, not just the second hand critique. You would not study an idea just by reading its critics.
...
Finally I would say that even IF the proofs for God would fail as you claim (which I disagree) it doesn't make theism automatically irrational (seen the philosophical problems of the atheist position I mentioned above).
> The only plausible explanation would be that the fish struggled onto land with it's fins due to a shortage of food in the water and the fins eventually changed into walkable stubs.
This is basically right. A missing link between fish with fins and "fish" with legs would have looked something like the mudfish. The fins do indeed evolve to function more like legs, and these animals then start to look more like lizards. The important thing to keep in mind about evolution is that these changes are really minuscule from generation to generation, but that these marginal changes eventually add up to large functional differences.
It seems like much of your argument revolves around a poor understanding of evolution, that it is somehow consciously directed. This is in fact not at all the case. There are several mechanisms through which adaptive changes in hereditary traits occur, and not one of which is conscious willing for bodily change. A quick glance at the wikipedia article on evolution should avail you of some of these misconceptions. I know that abiogenesis and evolution can seem mysterious, but it's actually not, and this really doesn't seem to be a good argument for incompatibilism. You might be interested in an argument that seems related, presented in Nagel's Mind and Cosmos, which argues that consciousness itself cannot be explained by evolution and the naturalistic world picture, determinism included. This argument is highly controversial and in my opinion not at all convincing, but it's there and Nagel presents it.
just get this one: https://www.amazon.com/Shadow-Claw-First-Half-Book/dp/0312890176/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1510159372&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=shadow+of+the+torturer
One of my all time favorite authors is a guy named Gene Wolfe. I don't know or honestly care what anyone else thinks about him, I find his writing imaginative and super creative while still being still understanding that there are limits even in a fantasy world.
LINK to a book: http://www.amazon.com/Shadow-Claw-First-Half-Book/dp/0312890176/ref=ntt_at_ep_dpi_3
Yeah! Gene Wolfe's series The Book of the New Sun is a great read. It has some very, very interesting uses of language, almost archaic in tone and meaning, but reads almost like poetry sometimes. I recommend it, probably one of the most re-read books on my bookshelf.
First half
Second half
In realtà non mi ricordo esattamente se la citazione viene da The Mythical Man-Month o se da Peopleware, li ho letti praticamente uno dietro l’altro. Se non li conosci, consiglio vivamente.
Non discuto che il “mitico mese-uomo” sia moneta corrente, il discorso è che sappiamo da anni che è una moneta rozza e inaffidabile, e quindi va presa con pinze molto lunghe.
I haven't read either of these books so I can't vouch for them personally, but my understanding is that Peopleware and Mythical Man Month are classics.
Though you're asking in the context of AWS, there are many best practices for designing and operating a distributed system at scale whether it's under AWS or not. The Practice of Cloud System Administration is platform agnostic and a fantastic place to start. No referral link!
Sysadmin, I've been doing Lead SysEng/DevOps/SRE for the past 4 years and literally have multiple written offers I'm trying to choose from right now.
I only started looking 3 weeks ago.
Learn multiple clouds(I've done the big 3 in prod and other ones for utils/tools/hobby/legacy systems), Kubernets/docker, Linux, distributed systems and ansible/puppet/chef
Read this:
https://www.amazon.com/Practice-Cloud-System-Administration-Practices/dp/032194318X/
and this:
https://www.amazon.com/Site-Reliability-Engineering-Production-Systems/dp/149192912X/
See if you can buy time for the internship offer, having multiple offers is always better :)
Is the internship paid?
What an interesting question.
I don't think I've ever read before of a business idea to start a brick and mortar business where you will cut and run if you are not making money within 3 to 6 months. And then start another, and then another. Most leases are for 6 months or a year.
The start up costs for day trading are a computer or your cell phone, a few hundred dollars, and you fill out an online form with a broker. I don't think day trading is a good example to use when looking at a brick and mortar business.
I spent almost a full year doing market research before I started my small business. It was time well spent.
The E Myth Revisited is a book that was very helpful to me. There are many web sites that have reviewed this book over the years so you can find great summaries of the book if you don't want to buy it.
Best of luck.
If you want to start your own business, read this book: http://smile.amazon.com/E-Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses-About/dp/0887307280/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1427331465&amp;sr=8-1
It's all about people like you and me. Technicians (people who do things, bake pies, make widgets, repair sofas) who want to break out of working for someone else and start their own business. The problem is that most Technicians don't know anything about running a business. It was a real eye opener for me. Karl Palachuk says it's the one book he'd get every business owner to read if he could and I agree.
You might need a few more years under your belt before starting your own MSP, though. Right now the work seems easy because it's all technical work and it's handed to you. You sit at your desk and the tickets show up. When you run your own business, you have to find that work, sign clients up, chase down payments, everything. It's all on you. You'll likely need to transition out of the technical role altogether at some point.
Unfortunately, this is a journey you have to take yourself. We can't help you outside of giving you whatever resources we've found in our own megre quests for a career that makes us happy. Although I must say, it feels like you are approaching this from a difficult angle: "what can I study to get a career" should change to "what career do I want, and how can I get there?". Speaking as someone who is pushing 40, if you don't know what career you want, and if you don't really give a shit as long as it puts food on the table for you and your family, learn a trade. Plumbing. Electrician. Nearly anything that you can get a certificate for and then find a job. Pull 40 hour weeks and get paid well. There will be stumbling blocks as you go forward, but as an ex-marine small-business owner once said to me: "a hoop is just something you jump through." Get a loan if you need to. Check out your local trade schools, and see what financial aid they have. If you have the time, read The E-Myth Revisited by Gerber. It will help you if you are thinking about opening a business.
relevant to the implied context.
Check it out if you want, or not.
Getting a bit off topic here - but despite the many things that are wrong with the US, its still a pretty great place to live - far from a dystopia. Highly recommend the book Factfulness, which although is really about the world as a whole - it can certainly be scaled to ones views of the US.
You should read the book Factfullness.
https://www.amazon.com/Factfulness-Reasons-World-Things-Better/dp/1250107814/ref=mp_s_a_1_2?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1540911747&amp;sr=8-2&amp;pi=AC_SX236_SY340_QL65&amp;keywords=factfulness&amp;dpPl=1&amp;dpID=51tvugRSHKL&amp;ref=plSrch
You are overly pessimistic and you make an assumption that “Mother Nature is all about balance”. Where is there proof of this? There is no such thing as Mother Nature.
You dont need to take a class. Get the book "Personal MBA" https://www.amazon.com/Personal-MBA-Master-Art-Business/dp/1591845572 Get it right now. Go to Barns and Noble or Download a digital version. This is your course, its $15 and you will be done in 3 days and know more about business than most people.
Mostly Harmless Econometrics
and
The Signal and the Noise
are my recommendations for an introduction into more advanced topics in econometrics. If you want more of a textbook Th3Plot_inYou's suggestion is good (I still have mine from my class).
Edit: Signal and the Noise is more theoretical about forecasting in general.
Love stuff like this and this.
I highly recommend Proofiness. It's a great book about how statistics are misused in the media, both intentionally and unknowingly.
Also, Steven Strogatz, who did a number of really well written articles about math for the New York Times a few years back compiled them with more into The Joy of X
Finally, I have Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise right next to me, but I haven't actually started reading it so I can't vouch for it fully.
Run from this project. Everyone else in this thread has already given you great reasons. I want to recommend a book, Nate Silver's Signal and Noise. It's a great read, and I think useful to any data scientist even though it's geared towards the general public.
Specifically, he introduces the reader to weaknesses in forecasting complex systems, as well as the efficient market hypothesis .
I've worked on a social media based market predictor before, and I definitely fell into many of the pitfalls Nate Silver describes.
This book was mentioned at /r/compsci recently.
https://www.amazon.com/Algorithms-Live-Computer-Science-Decisions/dp/1627790365
Humans have two processing systems.
The one we like to think about is "careful thinking". You rationally and logically think through a problem. This is an amazing skill, but it is tiring and slow.
In addition, we have "instant thinking", which is also known as emotion. Scary: Run away! Disgusting: Don't eat that! Love: Make babies with him/her!
For certain types of decisions we can use "careful thinking", but most of our life runs on "instant thinking" because it is so much faster and easier.
(For more details see Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman.)
The answer to the first question is yes. I/we are non-monogomous which means I have had many experiences with women other than my wife. Sometimes these experiences are with my wife in the room with us getting in on the fun. ;)
As to the second part of your statement about women being more irrational than men. I don't know how to put this any more plainly than to just say that you are stereotyping. What you said is the definition of stereotyping. I appreciate that you're trying to look out for me but you probably want to get over that idea if you want to be with women who are into non-monogamy. Human beings are irrational all the time regardless of gender. If you're noticing irrationality in women more than you are noticing it in men then it's likely a result of your lack of self awareness. Read up on irrationality and you'll see what I mean. We're meat computers driving a hairless ape-robot that evolved through a haphazard and inefficient process. None of us are capable of being truly rational. That said Juno is a pretty thoughtful person and it's clear to me what her motivations are.
here's a couple of great books on human irrationality to get you started if you're interested in wiping out your biased viewpoint:
Start with You are not so smart
Then move on to Thinking fast and slow
Haven't read the above book, but along the same lines have a read of this:
https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman-ebook/dp/B00555X8OA
Not just finance related, but life generally.
I'm about to finish up reading Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman. I plan on reading Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions by Brian Christian.
However, I'm looking for an nice fictional book to read alongside it. Any suggestions?
Thinking, Fast and Slow, by cognitive psychologist and Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman, is wonderful.
If you think so, I'd suggest reading Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow or another text on cognitive biases. Because if you're building safe rooms in a classroom for an event that has E(X) value of essentially nil, you're beyond irrational. Its akin to people selling parachutes for highrises after 9-11.
Yep, sounds good. I read a number of books on the topic of negotiation and interpersonal communication. The main books which standout are Never Split the Difference and Crucial Conversations.
All these books have gems of information, at their core - they are really getting at two principles:
Outcome and purpose seem like the same thing, but they are actually different. The tools you mentioned seem to embody these principles.
As far as how they would work in an online community - who knows. It could strengthen dialogue, or it could seem over-bearing. It would be an interesting experiment to try to enforce these communication styles.
Pročitao Three Body Problem, sve tri knjige. Više ne gledam zvezdano nebo istim očima. Bez zezanja. ;)
Mimo toga kad stignem čitam Never Split The Difference, od noulajferske literature čitam neke dve Deep Learning knjige od kojih ću jednu da batalim i fokusiram se na drugu, kad stingem čitam Probably Aproximately Correct i LLVM Essentials. Od ove poslednje ću verovatno da odustanem za sada, troši dosta energije a ne osećam benefit na horizontu, kanim se da počnem Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow.
You might get some value from Never Split The Difference
Getting to Yes - https://www.amazon.ca/Getting-Yes-Negotiating-Agreement-Without/dp/0143118757/ref=sr_1_1?crid=BCHIC7U5CRIU&keywords=getting+to+yes&qid=1573872902&sprefix=getting+to+yes%2Caps%2C144&sr=8-1
Never Split the Difference: https://www.amazon.ca/Never-Split-Difference-Negotiating-Depended-ebook/dp/B014DUR7L2/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=negotiation&qid=1573872963&sr=8-1
&#x200B;
But more importantly:
Client Science: Advice for Lawyers on Counseling Clients through Bad News and Other Legal Realities: https://www.amazon.ca/Client-Science-Lawyers-Counseling-Realities/dp/0199891907
Actually I just read a book by a former lead hostage negotiator for the FBI, and it turns out they often do negotiate small cash payments to kidnappers.
> Peoples lives are made best by being allowed to make their own decisions and decide what they want themselves
Holy shit no they aren't. Example: If the "donate my organs on death" checkbox is an opt-out affair, most people will opt out. If it's an opt-in affair, many many more people will opt-in. In this case, a relatively minor barrier to "making their own decisions" results in a huge quality of life improvement for anyone on a wait list for organs.
Read this for citation
For other examples of where the government desperately needs to intervene in markets, see forced arbitration clauses between companies and citizens, non-compete clauses in fast food workers' employment agreements, the fiduciary rule for financial advisers, the hole in the ozone, literally every false advertisement law, multi-level marketing schemes, copyright/trademark/patent law (although maybe not as much as is currently exhibited in the US), Dumping laws (e.g. don't throw sofas on the side of the highway), public intoxication laws, anti-trespassing laws, (the lack of) vaccination laws, literally all of public education, FDA drug safety regulations, global warming (and, honestly, most environmental causes), and the list goes on.
I'd argue that the government should be in charge of making sure that consumer expectations actually reflect reality and normally externalized costs are felt by the individual[s] inflicting them, as well as ensuring that life is mostly pleasant for most people and at least tolerable for the lowest rungs of society. People expect that traffic won't be shit, but suburbia inflicts traffic on city centers, thus increasing commute times and lowering standard of living for those who live furthest from city centers, so maybe suburbia should be discouraged.
> Are you actually comparing workplace safety regulations to you deciding that no one actually really likes suburbia and thus you should run their lives.
Yes?
If you don't want to have such arguments levied against you, don't make such absolutist statements like "If you think that the government should be setting the objective of reducing suburbia you should not be involved in government"
I went to one AA meeting when I first got clean and never went back. I understand people have found support and success in it but to me, personally, I felt it only increased the stigma of drug addicts as these broken hopeless people barely hanging on by a thread. It's an outdated system that relies on little science or attempting to progress the participants and relies more on holding people in place and focusing on the past. Instead I just worked towards becoming a normal person. Here are some of the resources I used:
r/Fitness - Getting Started: Exercise is probably the #1 thing that will aid you in recovering. It can help your brain learn to produce normal quantities of dopamine again as well as improve your heath, mood, well being and confidence.
Meetup: You can use this site to find people in your area with similar interests. I found a hiking group and a D&D group on here which I still regularly join.
Craigslist: Same as above - look for groups, activities, volunteer work, whatever.
Diet
This will be the other major player in your recovery. Understanding your diet will allow you to improve your health,mood, energy, and help recover whatever damage the drugs may have done to your body.
How Not To Die Cookbook
Life Changing Foods
The Plant Paradox
Power Foods For The Brain
Mental Health
Understand whats going on inside your head and how to deal with it is also an important step to not only recovery but enjoying life as a whole.
Feeling Good: The New Mood Therapy
The Emotional Life Of Your Brain
Furiously Happy
The Science of Enlightenment: How Meditation Works
Educational
If you are like me you probably felt like a dumbass when you first got clean. I think retraining your brain on learning, relearning things you may have forgot after long term drug use, and just learning new things in general will all help you in recovery. Knowledge is power and the more you learn the more confident in yourself and future learning tasks you become.
Illegal Drugs: A Complete Guide to their History, Chemistry, Use, and Abuse
Why Nations Fails
Ideas: A History of Thought and Invention, from Fire to Freud
The Modern Mind: An Intellectual History of the 20th Century
Thinking, Fast and Slow
The Financial Peace Planner: A Step-by-Step Guide to Restoring Your Family's Financial Health
Continued Education / Skills Development
EdX: Take tons of free college courses.
Udemy: Tons of onine courses ranging from writing to marketing to design, all kinds of stuff.
Cybrary: Teach yourself everything from IT to Network Security skills
Khan Academy: Refresh on pretty much anything from highschool/early college.
There are many more resources available these are just ones I myself have used over the past couple years of fixing my life. Remember you don't have to let your past be a monkey on your back throughout the future. There are plenty of resources available now-a-days to take matters into your own hands.
*Disclaimer: I am not here to argue about anyone's personal feelings on AA**
for learning/cognitive related i recommend checking out:
Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman,
Peak: Secrets from the New Science of Expertise by Anders Ericsson
and the various Cal Newport books (he also has a blog),
Thomas Frank from College Info Geek is also cool.
i personally prefer actionable coaching over talk therapy as it helps me get shit done rather than sit around and introspect which i already do enough of.
there is a /r/Stoicism
The Life-Changing Magic of Tidying Up: The Japanese Art of Decluttering and Organizing by Marie Kondo, check it out
Brene Brown for self compassion, talks on Youtube, you could check out.
The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck: A Counterintuitive Approach to Living a Good Life by Mark Manson is another good one.
For anyone who is interested in learning more about this, I recommend the book Thinking, Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman, who won the Swedish national banks prize in economics in memory of Alfred Nobel.
If you're just starting to dive into it, I think it'd be best to read a book that walks you through the main themes and concepts, or listen to podcasts such as EconTalk (you'd have to look for the interviews of behavioral economists). I think it's always good to have an introduction before going into the weeds. I agree with SbShula, Thinking Fast & Slow and Misbehaving are great for starting off.
In any case, here are some of the key papers. I used behavioralEconomics.com's "Introduction to Behavioral Economics" as an outline, and found links to the main papers (and books) that are freely available so you can download them. Of course, I recommend reading the website before starting to read the hundreds (thousands?) of pages in papers.
Prospect Theory
Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk - Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky
Bounded Rationality
A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice - Herbert A. Simon (On the bounds of rationality)
Maps of Bounded Rationality - Daniel Kahneman
Mental Accounting Matters - Richard H. Thaler
Nudge - Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein (Technically not a paper, but papers tend to focus on specific examples intead of the general idea that people's decisions are affected by "nudges")
Dual System Theory
Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman (Again, not a paper, but sums up a body of research in the same vein)
Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases - Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman
The affect heuristic in judgments of risks and benefits - Finucane, Alhakami, Slovic, and Johnson
The Psychology of Preference - Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman
Status Quo Bias in Decision Making - William Samuelson and Richard Zeckhauser
Temporal Dimensions
Diversification bias: Explaining the discrepancy in variety seeking between combined and separated choices - Daniel Read and George Loewenstein
Hot-cold empathy gaps and medical decision-making - George Loewenstein
Exploring the causes of comparative optimism - James A. Shepperd, Patrick Carroll, Jodi Grace and Meredith Terry
Social Dimensions
Dishonesty in Everyday Life and Its Policy Implications - Nina Mazar and Dan Ariely
A Theory of Fairness, Competition and Cooperation - Ernst Fehr And Klaus Schmidt
Fairness and Retaliation: The Economics of Reciprocity - Ernst Fehr and Simon Gächter
MINDSPACE: Influencing behaviour through public policy - Dolan, Hallsworth, Halpern, King, and Vlaev
Bounded rationality, ambiguity, and the engineering of choice. - James March
Thanks for the opportunity to look into all this. I just added a bunch of these to my bucket list.
If you're interested in this subject, I cannot recommend reading "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Israeli psychologist Daniel Kahneman enough. It is a very informative yet not overly technical summary of his over 30-year-long research on cognitive biases and the mechanisms of our decision-making processes.
The Stuff of Thought is the first and only book I've read of his, and I thought it was terrible. Really grindingly awful. It goes over old ground, told me nothing I didn't already know, and did it in the meandering, banal style of someone used to having people genuflect at his every proclamation.
I want to read Better Angels, but I'm having a hard time getting past Stuff. I did enjoy his AMA, though.
I just added this to my kindle library. It looks promising.
Edit: The lack of editorial reviews for Stuff (can we count Saletan?) should have made me hesitate before buying, but the subject interests me so much that I let my enthusiasm get ahead of my usual vetting process.
Amazon Link
I bought this a few months ago, and I recommend it.
If you enjoy these sorts of things, check out this book. Kahneman is the father of behavioral economics, which is basically the study of how our brains cleverly avoid doing any actual work.
Unfortunately, research shows that giving your child a name more easily recognizable/pronounceable does give them an advantage in life. This book went into it, it has to do with a concept called "cognitive load" as I recall. Basically the harder it is to pronounce someone's name, the more discomfort or work the brain feels and so people automatically start having negative associations with it. Whereas a familiar name is easier on the brain, and so more positive association. Again, as I recall, they saw that resumes with names more familiar to American minds fared far better and got more calls for interviews.
So the unfortunate reality here is: do you want to give your child a name that will put them at a disadvantage throughout their life? If job recruiters have negative associations, what about your child's teachers/professors? Remember, Indian Americans are still at this time only 1% or less of the U.S. population (last time I checked Census stuff, you can verify on Wikipedia I think)...so even in your child's lifetime, it will probably still be likely that they will be evaluated by non-Indians.
Then again, maybe you want to name your child what you want on principle to be a trailblazer and show pride. And that's admirable too, I really sympathize with that. But there are practical concerns that I can somewhat understand where the other parents are coming from.
Disclaimer: I'm an engineer, not a mathematician, so take my advice with a grain of salt.
Early in my grad degree I wanted to master probability and improve my understanding of statistics. The books I used, and loved, are
DeGroot, Probability and Statistics
Rozanov, Probability Theory: A Concise Course
The first is organized very well, with ever increasing difficulty and a good number of solved problems. I also appreciate that as things start to get complicated, he also always bridges everything back to earlier concepts. The books also basically does everything Bayesian and Frequentist side by side, so you get a really good idea of the comparison and arbitraryness.
The second is a good cheap short book basically full of examples. It has just enough math flavor to be mathier, without proofing me to death.
Also, if you're really just jumping into the subject, I would recommend some pop culture math books too, e.g.,
Paulos, Innumeracy
Mlodinow, The Drunkards Walk
Have fun!
Definitely look into bussiness management books as well. if you are going down this road, there is a chance you will want to start doing it on your own and having proper business skills will help tremendously in securing work, and balancing costs, and making money doing it! I am sure some people on this sub can recommend some great books on this topic as well.
Here are a couple books,
https://www.amazon.ca/Business-Model-Generation-Visionaries-Challengers/dp/0470876417/ref=sr_1_1?gclid=Cj0KCQjw5MLrBRClARIsAPG0WGxuwhyo-18J3-xPOVP8bXeTJ4zbGZHkpO4GqIGKlz-WCRxt3aUroqQaApECEALw_wcB&hvadid=229992601126&hvdev=c&hvlocphy=9000745&hvnetw=g&hvpos=1t1&hvqmt=e&hvrand=4412519744533501821&hvtargid=aud-748919244907%3Akwd-297504215686&hydadcr=16960_10238137&keywords=business+model+generation&qid=1567691052&s=gateway&sr=8-1
https://www.amazon.ca/Lean-Startup-Entrepreneurs-Continuous-Innovation/dp/0307887898/ref=pd_bxgy_14_img_3/141-1005106-2495725?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=0307887898&pd_rd_r=3ef234c3-168a-4156-bb6b-32f1e4f1ecca&pd_rd_w=PEqJa&pd_rd_wg=P882W&pf_rd_p=a62e2918-d998-4bbb-8337-35aac776e851&pf_rd_r=RMAX7VQZE9TKPTQ2SM8H&psc=1&refRID=RMAX7VQZE9TKPTQ2SM8H
https://www.amazon.ca/Startup-Owners-Manual-Step-Step/dp/0984999302/ref=pd_sbs_14_3/141-1005106-2495725?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=0984999302&pd_rd_r=3ef234c3-168a-4156-bb6b-32f1e4f1ecca&pd_rd_w=Oruqz&pd_rd_wg=P882W&pf_rd_p=f7748194-d8e0-4460-84c0-2789668108bc&pf_rd_r=RMAX7VQZE9TKPTQ2SM8H&psc=1&refRID=RMAX7VQZE9TKPTQ2SM8H
https://www.amazon.ca/Business-Model-You-One-Page-Reinventing/dp/1118156315/ref=pd_sbs_14_4/141-1005106-2495725?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=1118156315&pd_rd_r=3ef234c3-168a-4156-bb6b-32f1e4f1ecca&pd_rd_w=Oruqz&pd_rd_wg=P882W&pf_rd_p=f7748194-d8e0-4460-84c0-2789668108bc&pf_rd_r=RMAX7VQZE9TKPTQ2SM8H&psc=1&refRID=RMAX7VQZE9TKPTQ2SM8H
Boas, vou tentar dar-te uma resposta abrangente mas directa. Googla tudo o que precisares de perceber melhor - uma pesquisa que irias precisar de fazer de qualquer as formas.
EDIT: Não te metas nisso porque "fazer startups é cool" ou porque "dá dinheiro". É difícil para crl e há muitas maneiras mais fáceis de fazer dinheiro. A probabilidade é falhares.
EDIT 2: Uma startup não é uma versão miniatura de uma empresa grande. Maior parte dos princípios de gestão que se aprende numa business school não se aplicam.
Had this list together from a blog post I wrote a few months ago. Not sure what exactly you're looking for, but these are my favorite books and I'd recommend everybody read them all. There are other great books out there, but this is a pretty well rounded list that touches everything a company needs.
The Lean Startup https://www.amazon.com/Lean-Startup-Entrepreneurs-Continuous-Innovation/dp/0307887898
Business Model Generation https://www.amazon.com/Business-Model-Generation-Visionaries-Challengers/dp/0470876417
Hooked: How to Build Habit-Forming Products https://www.amazon.com/Hooked-How-Build-Habit-Forming-Products/dp/1591847788
Talking to Humans https://www.amazon.com/Talking-Humans-Success-understanding-customers-ebook/dp/B00NSUEUL4
Predictable Revenue https://www.amazon.com/Predictable-Revenue-Business-Practices-Salesforce-com/dp/0984380213
To Sell is Human https://www.amazon.com/Sell-Human-Surprising-Moving-Others/dp/1594631905
Rework https://www.amazon.com/Rework-Jason-Fried/dp/0307463745
Delivering Happiness https://www.amazon.com/Delivering-Happiness-Profits-Passion-Purpose/dp/0446576220
Granted I've never had to develop a business model, but I liked Business Model Generation.
Sometimes it makes a huge amount of difference to go through a proper exercise in understanding the business model. Use this: http://6w2x.com/mm-devel/mmc-canvasv01explained.html to fill out all the sections so you understand your business model. Ideally, you should get your hands on the book itself: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Business-Model-Generation-Visionaries-Challengers/dp/0470876417
Traffic, fan base, etc come later, once you've decided on things like your value proposition, customer segments, distribution channels, etc. Then you execute on the plan, targeting the segments and measuring the responses. Be data orientated from day 1 so learn about customer acquisition and retention. It may be that assumptions that have gone into the model are not correct and you have to make changes. Investing your time now on this will pay dividends later.
Good luck.
My favorite is Business Model Generation. To me, it really lays the foundation about before starting your business. In my opinion, a business makes or breaks during the initial planning stages. There are exceptions, but this book helps guide the thinking and really helps with understanding why a business will be successful or not.
Yeah, some of the wording was a bit awkward.
for example: "We want to provide you that place where you can share and access any file, when you want and for free"
Say something along the lines of "Access your files from anywhere in the world at any time"
Example 2 "Fufox is not using your personal data for commercial purposes"
Instead say "Fufox(or we) respect(s) our users' privacy and we pledge not to sell your personal information to third parties.
Avoid using "you" and complete sentences. You're trying to get a point across and not make someone understand a legal contract. It's ok to be a little vague.
The web design is nice. A bit cliche but nice.
Best of luck! Just remember that in order to be successful, your product has to be a heck of lot better than the competition or a heck of a lot cheaper. Being slightly better than the competition (dropbox) isn't enough to succeed. I sadly have had to drop ideas myself because of this.
You can learn a lot from this book. It's easy to read. http://amzn.com/0470876417
Social engineering attacks are not unique to T-Mobile unfortunately. The person posing as an employee most likely did a lot of prep to be able to convince the person on the phone that they are actually an employee. Learning the company lingo, obtaining an employee ID by overhearing it somehow or perhaps coming up with an employee ID that is the correct format at least. Using a store number as an Identifier to legitimize their claim etc..
This is my favorite defcon talk on social engineering.
[Good book on social engineering] (https://www.amazon.com/Art-Deception-Controlling-Element-Security/dp/076454280X/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1468027366&amp;sr=1-2&amp;keywords=kevin+mitnick)
The Art of Deception by Kevin Mitnick who was a famouse hacker and social engineer is a great read for anyone interested.
I know a couple of professional pen-testers and they go onsite and plant devices on networks to allow easier remote access often. They're the good guys only mimicking what the bad guys also do.
For a good (but a bit dated) read, of a bunch of examples:
https://www.amazon.com/Art-Deception-Controlling-Element-Security/dp/076454280X
Hackers use social engineering and the planting of devices a lot.
https://digitalguardian.com/blog/social-engineering-attacks-common-techniques-how-prevent-attack
I would second Ghost in the wire, though that is more of a autobiography. Still goes over some interesting stuff he did back in the day. He also helped write The Art of Deception and the Art of Intrusion
Kingpin
Ghost in the Wires
The Art of Deception
most hacking is social engineering.
call a random # in a company & request access to X.
they ask for your employee ID #.
you make up an excuse & get off the phone.
Now you know what you need to get access.
Begin plan to get someone's ID
rinse & repeat as you hit each roadblock, all the while staying as random & anonymous as possible.
This is a great book if you're interested in an in depth discussion of this:
http://www.amazon.com/The-Art-Deception-Controlling-Security/dp/076454280X
http://www.amazon.com/The-Art-Deception-Controlling-Security/dp/076454280X
This book was really helpful/interesting. Art of Deception.
Ahhhh that post is so embarrassing lol. *\^_\^*
It's been a while since I read it, but some of my ideas came from the book The Next 100 Years by George Friedman, who also is involved in Stratfor, if you want more glimpses of how things may turn out in the near future. Stratfor in particular is pretty dense, so maybe you'll enjoy it! He also has two books, called The Next Decade (2011) and Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe (2015) that I want to read (although the former may be a little...well, late, lol). Oh, also, CaspianReport is fantastic. :D (Pretty sure he's INTP!)
ETA: Ohhhhh I also have to recommend The Crash of 2016 by Thom Hartmann! It set its predictions a year or two early but otherwise is spot on imo. You can see a ~1 hour video on the topic of the book with its author here.
I think the answer is that we really can't predict much beyond that it will increase, probably substantially. There's a really good book on this topic (well, in a general sense, not specific to computing): The Next 100 Years.
The first chapter of the book points out how 100 years ago, there's no way anyone could have conceived of how things turned out technologically or politically, but that we can try to make some guesses based on current trends.
Specifically regarding computing: most of the advancement in computing power has come from the scaling (i.e. shrinking down) of CMOS technology. CMOS is the flavor of transistor manufacturing that dominates digital design, and is why Moore's law is a thing. As transistors get smaller, they consume less power and operate faster. There are also architectural improvements that help too, but the bulk of advancement is in manufacturing.
The thing is, we're getting close to the limit of how much we can shrink transistors. Eventually things will be 1 atom thin, or require only a few atoms of a certain material in a specific manufacturing step. Can't get smaller than 1 atom... From there we have to move to different types of transistors, but those are years away, so it's really hard to say what will happen.
There are numerous reasons. Demographics, currency manipulation, and political instability being some of them.
Check out George Friedman's The Next 100 Years as a good start.
We're already seeing the beginnings of their slow down.
If you're having trouble with 300 you might want to reconsider your major. While you can certainly avoid taking quantitative courses (325 and 326 are mostly theoretical with light math, and have massive curves anyway) - in order to make your econ degree stand out you should take as many quantitative courses as possible. Like Econometrics I and II, which are probably the hardest Econ courses available.
That said, I'm about to graduate with an Econ degree and my advice is to read this book, realize that most economists are a fraud, and then switch majors.
I wrote this a while ago, but I really want to highlight part IV, "Make the game less random and swingy for yourself and your friends."
IMO this is THE principle that ought to be taught, without which nothing else matters. I could write a book (or, well, a blog, apparently) on how its application can take a lot of different forms, but the core principle of reducing risk is at the center of it all.
This isn't just a "c_a_l_m" thing---Day9 has written about this, nor is it just a "gaming" thing---Overwatch, with its many variables, snowballing, and fast-paced, impactful action (compared to, say, soccer), is a complex and unstable system, like a stock market or an ecosystem. Anyone acquainted with that space knows that the cardinal mantra is risk reduction, even if that ends up meaning things that conventional wisdom thinks are risky.
Seriously, I would rank this is as the most important thing you could teach Overwatch players. If OW had loading-screen tips, at the top of my list would be a simple "Overwatch can be chaotic! Try and make it less so for your team." It doesn't make the case for why, and it doesn't explain how, but simply knowing that it is important would go so, so far.
Where did I say ALL NPPs are bad? I showed why nuclear power is not safe in Japan. The combination of company/government bungling with an earthquake prone area is another potential disaster.
Basically, science_diction oversimplified the issue. Nuclear energy in Japan is NOT the safest energy technology. This isn't just,"Oh people are scared because of some bad press."
Everyone talks about how this was a once-in-a lifetime, unprecedented event. I recommend reading Black Swan concerning risk and probability. The thing is, no one even conceived that 3-11 could happen.
But it did happen. And that's what we worry about. We can't predict when something similar might happen again. This is not fear. It's a reassessment of risk. We thought our nuclear power plants were safe. We were wrong. We might be wrong again.
I live a 30 minute drive from the Hamaoka power plant in Shizuoka. It is ranked the most dangerous and was not shut down until AFTER 3/11. There's talk about starting it back up because "we need energy" for the hot summer. If they do I'm gone. 3 of my coworkers are leaving Shizuoka because of this, and I know over a dozen families in Tokyo that also left.
I hate to pull this card, I really do, but I gotta ask, would you, or anyone reading this, live next to a nuclear power plant in an area with 5 earthquakes a day? Would you raise your kids there?
And can I have a source please for the information that "Fukushima Daichi" was set to retire in March 2011? I mean, the earthquake occurred on 3/11, but it was still up and running.
The Black Swan is a great book about the business, risk analysis, economics, and sociology of rare "black swan" events like a financial crisis.
> The city has been tremendously resilient and that has a lot to do with how it was built. The question may be what unpredictable change is coming that the county can't predict and is it built in a resilient way that will let it be able to survive that sort of change?
You might enjoy the book The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb.
A random walk, the intelligent investor, and black swan are all good ones.
Are you looking for trading, internal business, etc? more detailed would be helpful.
Fooled by Randomness
The Black Swan
Predictably Irrational
The Black Swan
I've seen it plugged here and on the blog, but people assume it's just for Wall Street types or the military (I think all the branches recommend it). Small business owners, backpackers, bartenders, even stay at home moms, they all gain something from it. I've started gifting copies to friends and family, and especially my bosses.
I am currently Reading Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, and Taleb talks at length about bell curves and the Power Law. It seems that while bell curves do occur, we have a tenancy to assume that they always occur, when in fact, the power law is at work.
I highly recommend reading... it is very interesting. Here is a brief article on Taleb's "Black Swans."
Is this the book you're talking about? http://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/081297381X/ref=mp_s_a_1_1?qid=1373220229&amp;sr=1-1&amp;pi=SL75
Is it The E-Myth Revisited, by Michael E. Gerber?
https://www.amazon.com/Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses-About/dp/0887307280
These are the books I recommend to start with:
All direct amazon links, no referral links.
Depends what your end goal. If its your primary source of income and want to make a nice living 100k. Also, is the bank loan in your name or the corporations name? If you are the one personally liable its probably a bad idea. You still have a ton you need to learn about business and the gaming industry based on your comments. If you want to learn more I would recommend starting here http://www.amazon.com/E-Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses-About/dp/0887307280/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1416079505&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=e+myth
The E-Myth, $12
I would highly recommend that you read this.
Target 40 hours with the rest dedicated to exercise, non-work writing, non-work reading, and non-work socializing.
I've tried the other way, and this way helps me be more productive.
Keep in mind that how physically healthy and attractive that you look as outsized impacts on how people react to you in sales and business development situations. People who put in 'hero' 80 hour weeks months on end usually suffer badly in the health department. Few businesses can really be run by just one person. That's why you hire other people.
Good books on this:
Sorry about the loss.....
I recommend two books.
Check out The E-Myth revisited:
The E-Myth Revisited: Why Most Small Businesses Don't Work and What to Do About It https://www.amazon.com/dp/0887307280/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_i_uqS0CbAT7R6NE
He literally uses a Bakery as an example.
Also applicable to startups.
If you haven't yet I'd implore you to read The E-Myth Revisited, which is a book that deals precisely with the situation of taking your passion and turning it into a business, and what most people do wrong in attempting to do so.
Only one title of overlap, nice.
Out of your list, where would you start? Have you read any other in our original list?
Built to Sell, John Warrillow
The Automatic Customer, John Warrillow
How to Sell at Margins Higher Than Your Competitors, Lawrence Steinmetz
Start With Why, Simon Sinek
Leaders Eat Last, Simon Sinek
The E-Myth Revisited, Michael Gerber
Selling the Invisible, Harry Beckwith
What Clients Love, Harry Beckwith
Question Based Selling, Tom Freese
I'm going to check out the other book listed below (Built to Sell), but I highly recommend reading the E-Myth. You can check out the website below:
http://emyth.com/
And/or the book:
http://www.amazon.com/The-E-Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses/dp/0887307280
They really emphasize building a system that you teach your employees to mimic what you would do and then finding the right employees so that the product never changes.
I think all of those things you've listed are valuable in their own right, however I think a bit of focus may help. First, determine what you are actually trying to accomplish because learning all those at once is not really feasible. Break that long term goal down into more meaningful steps.
For example, a good long term goal may be:
> Deploy an source controlled application on AWS using a configuration management tool, leveraging Infrastructure as Code to make it repeatable and Immutable Infrastructure to provide stability.
Breaking that down we have a series of things to learn:
These things can be done somewhat in parallel, but I would say focus your efforts will most likely provide the best value. The order in which I've listed these I find is the most useful to instruct people that are new to the area.
AWS:
Building A Scalable Web App on AWS
General Cloud Architecture
The Practice of Cloud Systems Administration
GIT
Git Book
I think you're going to have to find a balance between accuracy and ease. most academic books are dense because 50 years of theoretical work went into understanding a very minute phenomenon. For example, there are books (Locke & Latham, 1990) written on just goal setting and how important it is to set a difficult goal. On the other hand, you have books written by folks like Malcolm Gladwell, while easy to read, are often incorrect because they omit many important nuances in academic literature.
Your best bet is to find books written by academics but made for laymen, two I recommend are:
You are not so smart
Thinking fast and slow
While not strictly about Statistics Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman looks into the science of decision making and how people aren't good at statistical thinking. It's a fascinating book and does have some basic discussions on statistics.
>Otherwise how do you explain the selectivity of oxytocin production to different visual stimulus?
Because the signals passing through the visual cortex are what activate the oxytocin releases, no person controls the feelings they feel, they simply surface automatically through your automated identification system.
This is all from: http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374275637
You don't decide when your oxytocin is released, the systems which schedule its release are automated processes that are part of System 1.
This is my issue with Gladwell and Lehrer:
>In works of less than 500 pages, Gladwell and Lehrer attempt to enlighten the reader on How the World Works, What People are Really Like, and How Greatness Happens without getting into any of the technical details that would absolutely overwhelm the majority of the readers traipsing through airport book shop before grabbing their flight home.
They set out to achieve something that's nearly impossible and people are willing to suspend disbelief just because they don't want to expend the energy required to become truly informed on a given subject.
Also this:
>More than actionable insights, this kind of popular analysis gives the reader something far more immediately valuable – the feeling that they have a sophisticated view of the world.
I'm still reading the article, but I fell in love with the following sentence:
>America splits its valuable time between blowing an enormously obvious housing bubble, demanding Master’s degrees for entry-level positions, and badly managing the bloodbaths of Iraq and Afghanistan.
This is an excellent article. If I may suggest a couple of anti-dotes to the Gladwell/Lehrer pop-science oversimplification, two books with excellent science and research on how we think, decide and react to stress are Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow and Choke, by Sian Beilock.
Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman is a great read.
Please Understand Me II: Temperament, Character, Intelligence by David Keirsey is also a classic.
Kahneman's book Thinking Fast and Slow is like an orgy-fest of careful demonstrations of many of these effects. Good read.
From a psychological perspective, there are a whole set of systematic biases in how we think (e.g., those catalogued in Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow). And the existence of visual illusions and so forth (e.g., The Dress) tends to suggest that our perceptual faculties are designed for efficiency rather than accuracy - they wouldn't fool us if we saw the world entirely accurately. It's clearly accurate to say that our minds are not entirely reliable, and you don't need to be an evolutionist or a philosophical naturalist to believe this (there are traditions in Christianity that would argue R is low, too). Thus believing that the probability that R is low is not contingent on believing N&E.
However, there is a big stretch between saying that our minds are not reliable and saying that our scientific theories about evolution are not reliable. Plantinga here effectively paints scientific beliefs as being the same as any beliefs, yes? But there's reason to believe that scientific beliefs are more likely to be true than other beliefs.
Much of science tries to use quantitative measurement instruments (e.g., rulers) to reduce human bias, and technology (microscopes, for example) to go beyond human perceptual limits; similarly, scientists replicate studies in order to reduce the likelihood of the original findings being in error. The general aim of science is to increase the likelihood that our theories about the world are correct. And in general, observed experience suggests that science has utility in terms of our ability to base functional technology on scientific theories - a whole swathe of scientific principles underlie the ability for you to read this text on the computer screen you're looking at, for example. This suggests that while our current scientific beliefs might still be inaccurate, they're still more likely to be accurate than other beliefs.
And so if you are trying to argue about the probability of a scientific theory from a Bayesian perspective, as Plantinga is doing in the EAAN, you therefore need to take into account a markedly increased probability of scientific theories being correct compared to other beliefs.
If a Plantingan then asserts that P(R|N&E) is still very low, even with science's error correction processes, then someone who believes N&E could argue that P(R|AG) - where AG stands for the idea that the Abrahamic God created us - is even more improbable.
I read your comment. Then I look at the username of the comment above you. My head explodes.
Seriously though: you are 100% right in what you are saying, but I hope people is not thinking "yeah exactly people are dumb... they just need to be told off, they will wake up, and everything will be fixed". This is as efficient as "fixing" mass shootings by giving weapons to the teacher.
It is all about how the human brain rewards our actions, and how that influences how we act and think. We are designed to prioritize an easy chuckle (low effort, high reward) over a "computationally expensive" thought (source: Thinking Fast And Slow).
You want to convince someone? Be short, be precise, know how the human brain works and don't fight against it.
In general, when it comes to things like SEO, SEM, etc you are better off sticking with blogs and content sites like SEOMoz, Marketing Sherpa, and Danny Sullivan/Search Engine World. By the time a book is written it's usually out of date in these fields.
>Our fighting hasn't stopped because I haven't stopped fighting for control.
>I don't trust my fiance. There, I said it. I want to. I'm working on it. But I don't, right now.
I am not sure that I believe this, actually. I think you do trust him. The issue is, I think, the difference between an unconscious response (what you've trained yourself to do your whole life) and your conscious response (what you desire your reaction to be).
The unconscious responses are created in a part of the brain that is more instinctual - some people call it the "lizard brain". This response, to fight your fiance, or to act in a way that is mistrustful, happens in milliseconds. It is not under conscious control, it is by force of habit.
The conscious response, which happens in the parts of the brain that evolved later, takes longer to happen. The key is you have to re-train yourself, and it takes time and effort. You only have milliseconds to intercept the unconscious mind's response (mistrust) and replace it with your conscious mind's desire (trust).
So the first step is to recognize the unconscious response, be more aware of it, and at least try to stop yourself from reacting that way outwardly, or realize when it's happening and stop as soon as you realize that's what you're doing (which is sort of what happened with the airport story - you realized it, but after a few minutes, not in milliseconds.) Then you replace the instinctual response with your desired conscious response - instead of not trusting him you act as though you do trust him.
After you do this enough, your instinctual, unconscious reaction will change, and trust will become your new default.
An excellent book on this subject, if you're interested, is "Thinking Fast and Slow" by Kahneman.
edit: typo
Enforcing the law is a start. I'm not being flippant, that genuinely seems like a reasonable and broadly agreeable place to start. The CFPB alone has already returned $11 billion to consumers from fraudulent and illegal action by existing bad actors breaking existing laws.
Conversations with people we don't generally identify with (for whatever reason) is a good technique to reduce polarization.
https://www.vox.com/identities/2016/11/15/13595508/racism-trump-research-study
Cognitive and critical thinking skills should probably be taught in schools, in my opinion. For example, we're all aware of what stereotypes are, but we aren't every really told how they work, why they exist, and in what ways internalizing them frequently fails us in daily life. They backfire when we misunderstand or misapply the statistics that even a valid stereotype represents.
This is an excellent book by a winner of the nobel prize for economics. It isn't at all about stereotypes or racism, but I see how a lot of the cognitive heuristics and biases he discovered and explored are key to how racism works (or, doesn't work).
https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555
Never let another player dictate your play to you. If they're pinging for something, take a moment and think for yourself about whether or not it's a good play - Don't automatically go for it because they're pinging, but also don't automatically dismiss it because they're being annoying about it. Deep breath, make a call.
After the game, take time to re-watch that moment in the replay, and try to see it from their perspective - what are they losing for you not being there, and what are you gaining for being where you decided to go? Did you make the right call? If you think so after looking at it for a few minutes, don't worry about it. Tons of people make emotional pings because they don't know what to do and they feel trapped and pressured. But, you can't change the likelihood of the play to succeed just because one of your teammates wants it to work.
Making the right play - the one that you know you can make, the one that feels right - is going to net you a better result over time, because the frequency of people actually afking when you don't camp for them is actually quite low - negativity bias will have you having an easier time remembering the ones that do because it's such a stand-out moment, and availability heuristic will have you overestimating the frequency of them because you can remember them happening more recently, but if you actually collect some data about how often it happens, over a large sample size, like say a month or two, you'll see that it's not that big of a deal. (For more information on the biases mentioned, check out "Thinking Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman)
In short, make your own decisions, but consider other people's opinions while making them. Don't sweat the small stuff, because focusing on your own play (which you have control over) is much more effective than focusing on external factors like teammates (which you can't). The difference between you and a pro-player isn't your teammates. Learn, grow, win, climb.
Read How Not to be Wrong a bit ago and am currently reading Thinking Fast and Slow. Both lighter reads, Thinking Fast and Slow is a bit thicker, but both cover ways of using basic logic, quantitative reasoning, and probability.
Thinking Fast and Slow does an incredible job of explaining how the mind can work both for and against you without getting too technical, definitely recommend that. How Not to be Wrong is a bit lighter.
edit: lol both of the recommendations have already showed up in the thread
"Thinking fast and slow" by Daniel kahneman is a good book for metacognition and how to start thinking properly to solve problems.
Thinking, Fast and Slow https://www.amazon.com/dp/0374533555/ref=cm_sw_r_wa_apa_i_5EeEDb5B8GYXM
I think it's important to acquire the skills to evaluate various positions before worrying about what random yahoos on the Internet think about those positions. The impulse to run an opinion poll before you fully understand the issues you're polling people about is pretty much just an impulse to acquire a dataset that you can feed into the sorts of heuristics that (for instance) Kahneman has made a career out of evaluating, and as Kahneman has pointed out, some of these heuristics are not particularly good at getting the right answer. Rather than relying on these heuristics, I think it's better to make up one's own mind on the basis of careful consideration untainted by what others have to say, apart from what they have to say by way of giving you more information about what the various positions are committed to.
>Why does it matter - in daily life that is - whether people are the way they are because of nature or nurture?
It informs how you should go about achieving your goals. If a property is intrinsic and cannot be changed then you need to construct your systems of behaviour around accommodating that property.
For example, hobbes' leviathan. We know that when left to our own devices, humans aren't very fair to each other. Not even necessarily because of maliciousness, but because of a bunch of intrinsic cognitive biases, that among other things predisposes everyone to perceiveing losses they experience as far worse than gains they (and others) receive, which means that any time two parties take from each other they will both perceive the other party as horribly injust and themselves as perfectly reasonable, leading to ever-increasing escalations of reciprocation that rarely lead anywhere good. But you can mitigate all that by taking the enforcement of justice out of the people directly involved's hands and giving it to an (ideally unbiased) third-party.
Of course this is a lot more complicated than my simple explanation here, but hopefully you get the point I was making. When we know what parts of human nature can't be changed (at least not yet, eh), we have a much better chance of building an environment that leads us to the results we want to have. The same goes for interacting with others in daily life. You are much better equipped to interacting with people when you really understand why they do the things they do (and why you do the things you do!) than when you're not.
Incidentally, if you want to read a good book about a lot of these intrinsic cognitive biases then I recommend Thinking, Fast and Slow. It summarizes a lot of often surprising intrinsic cognitive biases - and outright cognitive illusions - that our brains fall prey to, which we have to be aware of when we design our systems in order to get those systems to do what we want them to do.
Thinking Fast and Slow. Starting reading it and I love it. Written by a Nobel Prize winner, he actually includes the papers in the back that much of the book is based on. He goes over the cognitive biases of humans. Definitely worth a look.
People are not rational as a general rule. They believe things that support their bias and disbelieve things that don't. Thinking, Fast and Slow is a good book on the topic of how irrational humans are.
The way I think of it is, it has to do with any one event, versus taking a sequence of events as a whole... but I'm not sure that helps.
I'm going to use numbers, but I'm going to use the simplest possible numbers. If you can count to four, this should be fine. All probability problems are, at their heart, just counting problems.
Let's say you flip a coin. Let's say it's a "fair" coin, and the odds are always 50% that you get heads -- but even percentages are a bit much. Let's just say the odds of heads (or tails) is 1/2, because there's an equal probability of heads or tails, so you can just count them:
Heads is 1 outcome, out of 2 possible outcomes. So the probability you got heads is 1/2. That's the only equation I'm going to make you understand.
This doesn't change if you've flipped the coin before. Using H for Heads and T for Tails, here are all the possible outcomes:
So if you flipped the coin once already, and it came up heads, then the probability that the first flip is heads is 1/1, because it already came up heads, and it's not possible that you'll go back in time and make it come up tails now. (The probability that it would come up heads is 1/2, but the probability that it already has come up heads is 1/1, because it can't now come up anything else.)
So you have two possible outcomes -- HH and HT. So the probability that you'll get heads again (HH) is 1 outcome out of 2 possible -- 1/2 again. Doesn't matter how many times the coin has been flipped already, it's still 1/2. Those other two possibilities don't matter, because TH and TT didn't happen.
But, if you're about to flip the coin twice, the probability that you'll get heads twice in a row is clearly 1/4. Since you haven't flipped it yet, the first coin flip could come up tails, so you could have any of those outcomes -- HH, HT, TH, or TT.
I'm going to skip your question about cards, and instead address this:
> I guess I'm just too simple.
If you can do high school maths -- just multiplication and division, and maybe a tiny bit of algebra -- then you can work your way through all of this.
It's not hard because of the math. It's hard because human brains are not wired to understand probability. (And it's not just you.)
Just look up the Monty Hall problem. Plenty of people, including professional scientists, get tripped up by this one all the time, even though it doesn't involve any numbers larger than 3. Or look up regression to the mean. That's even worse -- I could explain it in detail, with the airplanes and everything, and you would think you understand. But then, without even realizing it, you'd fall for very similar, real-life examples.
I've been reading through this book lately, and that's been the most depressing thing I've learned -- there are some things that we know to be true because we've worked out the statistics, but we also know that people just don't learn them, not really. Here's one depressing thought: If I showed you a video of a person who seems nice, who tells you a little about who they are and their hobbies and such, and then ask if they'd be likely to call 911 in an emergency, you'd probably say "yes". And whether or not you think they'd call 911 has absolutely no relationship to whether I teach you about the bystander effect first. (Or, in fact, whether or not those very people froze in an emergency.) Which means you probably don't, in your heart of hearts, believe that you'd freeze in an emergency and not even be able to dial 911, just because you were in a crowd of other people who could make that call -- even if you believe the Bystander Effect, you probably at least subconsciously believe it doesn't apply to you.
So it's depressing enough that there's a Bystander Effect, but what's more depressing is that people have such a hard time actually understanding it and applying that understanding to the way they see the world, instead of just filing it away in the part of their brains reserved for "depressing statistical facts."
So... you're not really more simple than the rest of us. People are stupid about statistics. And when I say that, I mean myself, too.
It's been long time since anybody asked me that. I love this kind of question!
Here are some key books that somehow represent how I think:
Something everybody should read (not about game theory, but about thinking and decision making):
A few specialised favourites from my shelves:
As far as the book recommendations go, it would be good if you could qualify what kind of books you're interested in (e.g. philosophy, psychology, history, science, etc.).
Books I recommend:
Psychology (or: On Human Nature)
The Anatomy of Violence: The Biological Roots of Crime
Thinking, Fast and Slow (my personal favorite)
The Undiscovered Self
The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature
History
Strategy: A History
Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind
Marxism, Fascism, and Totalitarianism
Economics
Economics in One Lesson
Basic Economics
Politics
Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government
As always, the list of books to read is too long, so I'll stop here.
I second /u/mbocchini's recommendation. Thinking, Fast and Slow is a fantastic overview of the growing (both in size and influence) field of behavioral economics from one of the most prominent psychologists of the past half century. It's written in a very accessible manner with little technical discussion, although the footnotes will source you to the academic papers and articles should you decide to dig deeper.
I personally think the most important step is learning what prevents you from critically analyzing events, situations and people. In order to objectively analyze something, we must learn what biases to avoid. In learning these biases, you'll learn how to develop a framework for approaching new information in a manner that will mitigate our innate biases.
I'm inherently biased with this recommendation, as I only recently finished the book, but I really enjoyed Thinking Fast & Slow by Daniel Kahneman. It's all based on academic studies, but I thought that it was written at an accessible level.
Second those and add The Practice of Cloud System Administration: Designing and Operating Large Distributed Systems, Volume 2 1st Edition
The title is a little misleading, but the latest version of The Practice Of Cloud System Administration is excellent.
Check out this book for another perspective on why men (and women) will have judgement lapses with the opposite sex. Authored by recent Nobel winner in Economics.
This Book
It's written by a Nobel Economist and has been on the buzz on many radio stations. As a potential Econ major, I would love to read this as soon as possible to talk about it with others. One of my econ professors asked if I had read this when we were talking, but I didn't and that was the end of the convo. Likewise, I was having an interview, and the guy asked me if I had read it, when I said I was interested in Econ, and again the convo ended there.
I'm trying to borrow, but the library's copy is on a waitlist system... and I have been number 50 something... for the past 2 months...
>If we are smarter and more informed, why doesn't it appear that way?
Probably because you are comparing reality to your idealized world. Probably because you are suffering from what is called "Availability heuristic." If someone hangs out in r/bad_cop_no_donut, they are going to see a lot of stories about alleged bad behavior of cops gathered from all over the country. (pulling a number out of the air) Let's say 5% of cops are like that, and 95% are reasonable. Is that person going to go read 19 stories about cops doing normal things for every story you read there? probably not. Do you think that this will probably skew their perception of the police? Science says yes.
>How is the media allowed to so rampantly present belligerent lies? We (internet, Reddit etc.) are informed because we choose to be, the mass American public buys into the bullshit and further perpetuates the madness. We are raping the planet.
What are rampantly presented belligerent lies? These? Ignore the politics of the publication. They have citations if you want to verify the historical sources.
I'll give you a rampant bullshit lie believed by lots of people who use Reddit and the internet and who think they are informed. The earth is not anthropomorphic. It does not care for us. It cannot be "raped" without mutating the term in a way that both harms our ability to communicate and that is also callously insulting people who are the victims of rape. Getting this wrong isn't just lazy language. It fundamentally misstates the issues.
I don't see you as arguing, and I'm working under the assumption that you understand I'm not arguing either. That doesn't mean that I agree with you. I do, however, recognize the epiphany you are having. I had one too. Do you want to feel better about the world? Learn and practice some engineering and discover just how fast we are solving our human problems. Learn some history and find out just how different it is today than even 100 years ago. Learn some economics, psychology, and game theory and learn how and why people respond to incentives and just how little an 'informed' person knows. These things have really changed my outlook on life.
Like I said, we've never had so much information at our fingertips. Here's a list of book recommendations. They are all written for a popular audience. None require much in the way of math or previous understanding of the subject matter.
You should read the article author's book called thinking fast and slow.
http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374275637/
Thinking Fast and Slow
Consciousness is...tricky. From what I've studied, all we are really confident in saying about it now is that it's entirely dependent on the brain. If you change the brain, it directly effects consciousness. How consciousness, a non-physical entity, can arise from exclusively physical attributes is still under discussion. What Dennett is offering in the video is a re-characterization of the entire discussion. People seem to be looking for a "real" magic trick to explain consciousness. Dennett is making the case that just as there really is no "real" magic, there's only illusions to make you believe there's magic, that there's no "real" magic to consciousness. It's an illusion, in a non-deceptive sense. Consciousness is what happens when the extremely complex systems in your brain interact in the way they do.
If you want some books to read about the mind and brain, check out Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman (NY Times Bestseller List 2011) and Connectome by Sebastian Seung. Kaheman will change the way you think about the way you think. He outlines the to "systems" that operated the way you think, and then outlines the biases he's discovered that causes the way you think to be wrong. Connectome outlines the processes of the brain and how the brain is wired to give a somewhat speculative look into Connectome science (mapping all the neurons in the brain and their connections to eachother) and makes claims that once we do this we will better understand the brain and consciousness because the physical structure of the brain is hypothesized to matter a great deal.
As a moderately related point to consciousness, you may want to ask that if consciousness is dependent on the brain, what does that mean for free-will. You should check out Free Will by Sam Harris. It's extremly short--more of an essay. Then look at what Dennett says about free-will. They very strongly disagree, and Sam has said that he hopes to sit down with Dennett and discuss it. When that happens it will be really interesting, and worth having at least a small background on the issue.
You're putting value on memories and emotions. That's fine from a personal aspect, but as far as winning a football game, they're the same.
I took a behavioral economics class which is basically focused around all the reasons and ways we don't think logically/rationally/statistically. This book is really good if you're interested in that.
The first day of class, my professor asked us, "You need a new alarm clock. The campus bookstore has one for $40. Walmart (a few miles away) has the same alarm clock for $20. How many of you would go to WalMart?" About 90% of the class raised their hands. He followed it up with this: "You need a new computer. The campus bookstore has one for $350. WalMart has the same one for $330. How many of you would go to WalMart?" Only about 20% of the class raised their hands.... Why? You're saving $20 each way. It's illogical to go to WalMart for one of those things but not the other. But people think it's better to do it for the alarm clock because they're saving a larger percentage, even though that's irrelevant. You're doing the same thing. Early game, late game, it doesn't matter, it's still the same amount of points, but it feels better if it happens at the end of the game just like it feels better to get a bigger percentage off.
I'm right now in the middle of this book Thinking, Fast and Slow that breaks down exactly what is going on in our minds here.
Basically, there's two different systems at work, the fast one and the slow one, and we're the arbiter between. The fast one is lazy. It reads that the store owner gave up $100 and then gave back $30 and lazily reports the loss of $130 (or maybe some other number).
The brain is very accepting of the fast answer. The slow system needs to not only blow a whistle and let us know something is off but then has the job of isolating the numbers, doing the math and figuring out not only where the problem is, but what the right answer is. Making things worse, the slow part is very fragile. If we are tired, sick, or in a bad mood, we're even less likely to bother with the slow thinking.
So it is a riddle because it's trying to get you to trust your fast system over anything else.
Sure. If I can view your brain with fMRI, I can predict with complete confidence when you will consciously "choose" to do something, in advance of you being aware you've made a choice.
The "choice" is made subconsciously. Subsequently, your conscious self invents a comforting illusion of "choice" or "free will" to justify the decision.
This is an older article, but it'll get you started: https://www.wired.com/2008/04/mind-decision/
Also, read Thinking, Fast and Slow.
I've just started reading the preceding article. For people who are interested in this kind of stuff, I highly recommend Thinking Fast and Slow. It talks about largely the same stuff but in different terms, and also goes into much more detail about the ways in which "mindless thinking", or what it refers to as System 1, biases us and affects our lives, citing an abundance of related psychological studies.
Już nie chciałem wnikać w szczegóły bo kolega padlina by mnie zlinczował , ale ja tak naprawdę to głównie słucham książek. Do tego słucham sporo tzw pop science , ale z ostatnich ciekawych pozycji to mogę polecić :
Trust me, I'm Lying - Ryan Holiday
Never Split the Difference - Chris Voss
Influence - Robert Cialdini
Thinking fast and slow - Daniel Kahneman
Daj znać jeśli coś z tego Cię zainteresuje.
I imagine it's something like the book, "Thinking Fast and Slow."
https://www.amazon.com/dp/0374533555/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_i_t0vuDbFEVXZKZ
Or "Hare Brain, Tortoise Mind."
Hare Brain, Tortoise Mind: How Intelligence Increases When You Think Less
https://www.amazon.com/dp/0060955414/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_i_I1vuDbKS6BF9X
Hey, cool, this is what I study (shoutout to the social and decision sciences at Carnegie Mellon). Kahneman and Tversky were insanely prolific researchers (and Kahneman still is to an extent) and their findings practically invented the fields of behavioral economics and decision science. Crazy cool people.
For a good read and an "outsider's" introduction, I'd recommend Thinking Fast and Slow by Kahneman. If you're more comfortable reading academic texts, their papers are pretty widely available too.
Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman.
Interesting. I may look into it. Though I am not American, so for me American politics is more something I follow casually and from far away.
I have another book you may enjoy, and it may also rob you of a lot of your hope about human beings.
This is a great point--and I think most of us miss at first, or at least I did. See, I had a little taste of "anti-Mormon" material a few years before I finally understood it.
What got me though was understanding how and why so many people believe wrong things. I studied a lot about biases and probability theory and how to actually change your mind and got a firm desire to believe something if and only if it is true. But also, I looked into about a dozen different things from astrology to homeopathy and saw how committed people can get to false ideas and how elaborately they can perceive 'evidence' that supports their view.
And then I looked at the church stuff again. From that perspective, it's easy. If you're willing to change your mind about the church, you will because the evidence is so overwhelming.
But then I rushed to show family members this overwhelming evidence against the church. Predictably, it doesn't work. Because they didn't go through those priors steps that I hadn't realized were so important.
So anyways TLDR: Get people to understand biases and that people can be very very wrong and yet still think they have truth on their side before exposing them to the evidences against the church.
this should be exactly what you're looking for
If she's interacting with a lot of users I would suggest reading Practical Empathy. Observing the User Experience is another great resource for learning about user research. User experience is all about people so it's always a good idea to read up on human behavior, psychology, cognition, perception, learning and memory etc. e.g. books like Hooked, Bottlenecks, Design for the mind, Designing with the mind in mind, 100 things every designer needs to know about people, 100 more things every designer needs to know about people, Thinking fast and slow, Predictably Irrational and I would also recommend Articulating design decisions and Friction.
Someone changed that person's mind to begin with, to get them to vote the way they did.
I don't think that it's as hard as people suggest. I think that there are many, many people that are bad at persuasion. They never practice that skill. They assume that their beliefs are superior, and get irritated when people are hesitant to change their mindset. And I can guarantee you, the second you start to get irritated when trying to persuade someone of something, that person shuts down. (Your body language and minor changes in tone will make you give yourself away.) Once you go on the offense, people go on the defense. That's human nature.
Most people do not have it in them to remove emotion and snap judgments from decision making. It's seriously part of human biology. It takes a shit load of education to get over that, to really change our lizard brains from the defaults of running on fear and short-sightedness, to what you might imagine the ideal to be.
This is a great book, that goes into great length about how people think: https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555
Edit: It's not super technical either, it's written for the layman.
It's a fantastic read, and you will learn a lot from it. I really believe that this is the kind of stuff we need to make mandatory teaching in schools. Psychology and Sociology should be mandatory. Then again, high school kids are just high school kids, so who knows how much that would help.
Sorry, this went a bit off topic.
No prob. The article seems to suggest the quality of question is important during meditating/reflecting. Also, meditation can sometimes feel silly when doing alone; perhaps you could meditate along with your mom.
If you're interested in additional reading material might I suggest: Thinking Fast and Slow, and Skeptical Inquirer.
No, I'm saying they're ignorant in the word's truest sense. As in, if they knew better, they would know that replaceable batteries are a huge pro (battery will never be an issue) with a miniscule con (phone is not as rigid).
Unfortunately, people make decisions primarily based on emotion, so what looks slightly better and feels slightly more solid wins when it's competing with something that looks less good but functions significantly better.
Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow is a really important book that discusses many of heuristics and phenomena from the interview.
https://smile.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1501116383&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=thinking+fast+and+slow
Thinking, Fast and Slow by Kahneman
Your Money and Your Brain: How the New Science of Neuroeconomics Can Help Make You Rich by Zweig (inflated title, but a good read)
I'm 52 & I've been on hormonal BC since I was a teen because of severe dysmenorrhea. So I've had the same conversations with my GYN. Copper IUD is out, because it would make the dysmenorrhea worse. There are no cancer risks in my medical history or my family history and the hormone work suggests that menopause is still at least 2-3 years away. So we considered a variety of alternatives, including rhythm/FA, condoms, vasectomy, and more, and decided on the implant for the next three years, and then re-evaluate at 55.
What it came down is that the medical danger to my health from getting pregnant is so high compared to the other risks that it makes the very small increases in the risk of stroke, blood clots, and cancer seem trivial.
There is no choice that is 100% safe for both of us except abstinence, and we're not willing to do that. So the safest answer is the most effective method of BC, namely the implant. It's safer than IUDs, vasectomies, pills, condoms, or anything else.
Often people talk about the risk of X and the risk of Y in terms that are really misleading. You'll see a stat that says that something increases the risk of a particular type of cancer by 75%, and your immediate reaction is that that's unacceptable. But often we're talking about the difference between 4 cases per 100,000 and 7 cases per 100,000, a microscopic real risk. You take a far, far bigger risk by choosing to drive instead of taking public transit.
In my case, the danger to my life and health from pregnancy was a large multiple of the increased morbidity and mortality from having an implant, so the decision was easy.
Humans are geared by evolution to use intuition and emotion to do risk analysis, because in the wild a fast approximation beats a slow but mathematically perfect answer almost every time. But that means we're often really bad at doing these sorts of subtle calculations with tiny risks. Read Thinking Fast and Slow by Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman for a brilliant discussion of how our brains trick us and make us bad at it, routinely accepting large risks and panicking about tiny ones.
Most doctors have neither the time, nor the training, nor the resources needed to do real risk analysis, so they make the same mistakes that normal people do. In addition, they know that juries are likely to rule against them for failing to advise you of a risk, no matter how small it is, but no one is going to attack them for giving you a recommendation that is foolishly cautious. So they have good reason to err on the side of not getting sued, whether it's good advice for you or not.
William Bernstein Four Pillars of Investing
Burton Malkiel Random Walk down wall street
I've thought some of the books by Rick Ferri (power of passive investing), Larry Swedroe, and John Bogle (common sense on investing) were good. I also recommend a book The Big Investment Lie by Michael Edesess.
I also enjoyed some books on money/behaviour:
https://www.amazon.com/Smart-People-Money-Mistakes-Correct/dp/1439163367
https://www.amazon.com/Your-Money-Brain-Science-Neuroeconomics/dp/0743276698/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1487679247&amp;sr=1-1&amp;keywords=zweig+money+brain
https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1487679263&amp;sr=1-1&amp;keywords=thinking+fast+and+slow
I'm really bad at reading through just one book at a time, so I'm in the middle of a few at the moment.
-A Walk in the Woods by Bill Bryson
-Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman (admittedly, it's been a while since I've picked this one up)
-Pale Fire by Vladimir Nabokov
I just finished a great book called The Other Wes Moore, also. It was super interesting.
I'm a big fan of non-fiction books, in case that wasn't immediately apparent by the list.
All decisions have an emotional component, and research has shown that people who claim to care exclusively about 'the facts' are often more driven by emotion than the people they see as 'emotional.'
Daniel Kahneman actually won a Nobel Prize in Economics for the research and application of what he discusses (at lenght) in the book below.
It's an absolutely awesome read, and I recommend every engineer and especially project managers read it at least every couple of years.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;source=web&amp;rct=j&amp;url=https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555&amp;ved=2ahUKEwiV4tLcpYjiAhXshOAKHaKxABsQFjAYegQICBAB&amp;usg=AOvVaw3lAZqqPHlaSgKWv4V33dGs
Perhaps this book by Daniel Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow might be a good start in answering your question: http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555
Like I said in another comment, most of my work was on reading comprehension and assessment. My work on automatic behavior was actually much more low-level than stuff like leaving a child in the car. My automatic behaviors would be changing how people perceive distances, and then in turn whether this could change how quickly people walk when they don't know they are being observed.
That being said, Thinking Fast and Slow is a pop psychology book written by a leading psychologist on these topics. It's more broad than what we're talking about here and is more focused on thinking than doing, but it's a great read.
The article I linked above, The Unbearable Automaticity of Being is a great summary of how automatic behaviors affect our daily lives. My unpublished research on automatic behaviors was largely inspired by this article. I read it as an undergrad and designed an experiment with my professor, and then started running it and replicating the experiments in grad school.
I mostly have a lot of books that helped me, but here are the most influential ones that I've read recently:
I can't overstate their importance, but I also don't think I can do four large books worth of content justice without a very substantial amount of writing. The gist is that they're books about how our minds actually work, and how we can use that knowledge to our advantage to make better choices and have beliefs that reflect reality.
There is nothing shocking in this what so ever. People are not behaving ignorantly, they are acting quite reasonably to the norms of human psychology. On the social media front, it is a fraction of a hair or a fraction of a hair in the timeline of our communication with one another. We need to adapt to it. I use it as a tool. If we are more aware of our tendencies, then we an adapt to the pressures that our outside environment has. I only use Twitter for politics and make sure half of the people I follow I disagree with.
So you value your opinion? Do you think you think things through and don't let nonsense influence your opinion? Read "Thinking Fast and Slow". You wont trust yourself for shit anymore. You will be more cautious on quick opinions and try very hard to reserve judgement and rely on the "thinking slow" part of your brain". Sad part is, even when you know about your brains tendencies, you are still victim to them 80% of the time.
I highly recommend this book:
https://www.amazon.com/Never-Split-Difference-Negotiating-Depended-ebook/dp/B014DUR7L2
It's really sharpened not only my negotiation skills, but many every day interactions I've had with people, particularly employers etc. Very much worth the read.
Hey atticusmass,
I understand your frustration very well. And I think your designs are well considered. Sub par doesn't come to my mind here.
The thing is:
You'll get into these situations again with other clients as well. It's up to you to handle them differently. In general: If a client gives you negative feedback it's your job to make them look forward positively to your next one. Or rather: to you.
What would a craftsman, who didn't solve your household problem to your satisfaction have to tell you to make you want him to come again and give it a second shot?
How did you approach them to get feedback? How did you present your work?
What was your facial expression like? What exactly offended you about the feedback? Which questions did you ask? Avoid "yes/no" ones by any means. Use open ones instead.
Insist that you can't work without their constructive input. But always remember:
“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” - Henry Ford.
As unfortunate as these situations are they offer an opportunity to learn something. Good luck!
Book recommendation: https://www.amazon.com/Never-Split-Difference-Negotiating-Depended-ebook/dp/B014DUR7L2
https://www.amazon.com/Never-Split-Difference-Negotiating-Depended-ebook/dp/B014DUR7L2/ref=nodl_
It’s a semi-auto-biographical how to guide for dealing with irrational people written from the perspective of an FBI hostage negotiator. It’s useful for everything from buying a home, to counseling people, to parenting.
I'm not in sales, but I've heard good things about this book. Could really come in handy in a sales environment: https://www.amazon.com/Never-Split-Difference-Negotiating-Depended/dp/0062407805/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1518035077&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=never+split+the+difference
It really depends on what the language of the non-compete is. Are they basically a local company? Do they limit the non-compete to a geographical area? Do they specialize in one type of marketing? Do they limit the non-compete to those types of marketing? As somebody who worked at a marketing firm, left, and started my own gig, I would say don't sign it. As others have stated, a non-solicit agreement makes more sense.
If they are serious about the non-compete, offer to sign it for a $10,000 bonus. Nothing is free. They don't get to dictate your actions for 2 years after you quit working for them without paying you something beyond your salary for it. At least, not in my eyes.
Don't think it's a yes/no question. Negotiate. If you don't feel like you have good negotiating skills, check out the book Never Split the Difference by Chris Voss. But you have to be prepared to walk away and find a different job. It's a calculated risk and you know best whether it's worth it or not.
You should check out Chris Voss. He was the head of hostage negotiations for the FBI. He has a book called Never Split the Difference. Really good information and he relates it to sales and business. He also has been on a few podcasts. Highly recommend!
https://www.amazon.com/Never-Split-Difference-Negotiating-Depended/dp/0062407805/ref=nodl_
I have a friend I worked with at a fortune 500 Investment firm (Multi billion dollars in assets), who was worried about asking for new monitors for his desk after he landed a new position at the company because they were $150 each. I reminded him that stuff like this is always budgeted for and they spend more than that on buying lunch for meetings sometimes and to also never feel bad for the gigantic bank.
Your company has a budget for retention/raises/bonuses they aren't going to fire the janitor to give you $10k. It's fine if you want to try to take the best interest of the place you work in mind, but its not good to be a doormat. That is how you get to a place of $15k wage disparity.
Wages aren't a race either, you want to be paid on your merit and skills, not because someone else gets paid more. You need to make a list of what you bring to the table but only as a reflection of yourself don't bring any of your colleagues into the mix by trying to compare output. just talk about you and all the work you do and show how it has ramped up for you in particular since you have started. This takes the conversation from "they have more" to "I am underpaid for the value I provide" Make a list of accomplishments, cost savings, late nights. Then have a nice conversation about how you feel you are underpaid and would like to have your wages adjusted. Start with the $15k and when they scoff just tell them its where you think you should be based on market/title/workload etc (glassdoor can be your friend at this point)
If they say yes then you are good, if they counter offer, with what you wanted, you are good, if they come back lower, lets say $5k, ask if it would be possible for you to get the pay you are looking for spread over 3 years instead of one, or start asking for non monetary things that you might like maybe an extra week of vacation, depending on what your company offers for benefits you may be able to get them extended. Companies tend to give those out easier because they don't come out of the payroll bucket.
If they still say no, well the job market is currently like 3.7% unemployment and there are tons of places hiring for hr.
Tl:dr your company can afford to pay you more don't take their shit, they will happily keep you at the same salary for years don't feel bad for them they don't feel bad when they do that shit to you.
Also try reading never split the difference it can help you get better with negotiation tactics.
https://www.amazon.com/Never-Split-Difference-Negotiating-Depended/dp/0062407805
I don't know if this will help you or not, but I used to have a boss that was just straight-up mean. He was nearly always ripping me a new one. That was my first office job, so I was low on the food chain, and he let me know it all the time.
I finally hit a wall and got to the point where I'd respond to his mean comments by just looking at him with a blank face. It takes some self-control, but I'd just look at him for a beat too long, without saying anything, and then he'd fill in the uncomfortable silence by backpedaling to soften what he'd just said. It sounds like your boss is more reasonable than mine was, so it might work even better if you try it.
Another tactic is to "mirror" what he just said, which basically accomplishes the same thing. Mirroring is just repeating the last two or three words of whatever he just said, but in the form of a question. A lot of time it forces people to complete their thought, and then often they realize they shouldn't be blaming you. I learned this from Never Split the Difference, which is a book about negotiating, but really comes in handy when dealing with "difficult" personality types.
Never split the difference
https://www.amazon.com/Never-Split-Difference-Negotiating-Depended/dp/0062407805
Thinking fast and slow
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow
These are the books I've read recently and liked a lot:
These are not affiliate links.
http://www.amazon.com/The-Baby-Book-Revised-Edition/dp/0316198269
All of the Dr. Sears books are great. They treat you and your baby like people, not projects to schedule or manage.
http://www.amazon.com/Thats-What-Theyre-Definitive-Breastfeeding/dp/159337285X/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1397570127&amp;sr=1-1&amp;keywords=so+thats+what+they%27re+for
This is kind of old, but a funny way to learn to succeed at breastfeeding.
http://www.amazon.com/The-No-Cry-Sleep-Solution-Through/dp/0071381392/ref=pd_sim_b_13?ie=UTF8&amp;refRID=0NSBRKTSW2JNFCDDDGK6
This is the gentlest way to deal with sleep issues if you have them. I have never had sleep issues, though, as we coslept. In fact, I have never slept as much as I did when my oldest was a newborn. I slept 12 hours a night.
My boys have never been good sleepers. The advice in the No Cry Sleep Solution combined with Weissbluth's sleep 'schedule' helped a lot in the beginning, but at 6 months out, I needed something stronger as my boys still had opposite schedules and were up a lot at night. I read through a ton of baby sleep books and picked bits and pieces from a bunch. The Sleep Lady's Good Night, Sleep Tight is my current favorite because it has detailed breakdowns by month and a plan that's basic and easy to follow. I don't follow her guidelines 100% because I breastfeed on demand rather than schedule, and they still wake each other up overnight, but, with her help, I have my boys taking naps semi-together and nighttime has gotten a lot easier.
The thing about baby sleep is that you need to figure out what works for you and your baby. Some babies are fine being up every hour. Other babies are not. You can often tell how well a baby has slept by how quickly they go to bed after waking up in the morning or by fussiness. Since tweaking my boys' schedule and being more diligent about putting them down to sleep, both boys are less fussy and my night owl no longer spends all morning trying to get back to bed.
Sleeping through the night should come with growth, but some babies need help more than others. Read through the books and try out a plan for a few weeks. Don't be afraid of letting them grouse or cry for a bit if nothing else works. I swore I would never do CIO before I started on this sleep journey. Haven't had to yet, but I do now believe it's a necessity for some kids, perhaps if better sleep habits aren't taught to them earlier.
I co-slept/bed-shared and breastfed, so I slept 9+ hours every night. I have three beautiful, thriving girls to show for it. At 7 weeks, a later bedtime is okay, IMO. It helps to work it down earlier and earlier the older they get because they obviously sleep for longer periods.
Highly, highly recommend this: http://www.amazon.com/No-Cry-Sleep-Solution-Gentle-Through/dp/0071381392
Edited to add: I have to agree with some of the replies here about 7 weeks being too young for a sleep schedule. When you start to feel that she has established a a natural eating/sleeping rhythm herself, I think that may be the best time to start training. And the "training" should be more of a gentle nudging sort of thing. Be flexible and be kind to yourself. I personally know so many moms who develop PTSD over their kids' sleeping schedule. I guess when you're sleep deprived, it can become an obsessive thing. I can understand that. Don't let it ever overshadow the wonder of having an infant!
I totally agree with your doctor about not needing a daily bath. You can start bathing her daily when she starts getting dirty daily. Here's a hint: if you have to ask yourself whether she's dirty...chances are, she's not really dirty.
First off, it's OK that this happens. 6 months isn't too late to have problems trying to end this (I know people who waited until their child was 2 years, which was a real mess).
.
MY main advice - READ THIS BOOK (The No-Cry Sleep Solution) - http://www.amazon.com/The-No-Cry-Sleep-Solution-Through/dp/0071381392/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1394037979&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=baby+sleep
.
You gave little detail so all I can say is read this book and go from there. Kids do not "perfect sleeping" until 12 months at the earliest (going to sleep without a peep, staying asleep throughout the night).
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ONE LAST COMMENT: A-OK to post this question here but you will get significantly more answers at /r/parenting
Our little guy ended up self soothing by sucking his thumb, but I had bought this book and was enjoying the ideas in it. https://www.amazon.ca/No-Cry-Sleep-Solution-Gentle-Through/dp/0071381392 it’s just another method to try other than crying it out. It offers solutions for co-sleeping parents.
The two I've purchased so far are the No Cry Sleep Solution and Retro Baby. The former was highly recommended to me by a few new parents but I haven't dived in yet. The latter is a fun read and it made me really excited for all of the development milestones to come.
I feel like what's missing from my library is some A to Z book on newborn health. It would be nice to have a book to consult before scaring myself by Google-ing.
The No-Cry Sleep Solution, So That's What They're For-breastfeeding basics, baby 411.
As a pediatrician, lactation consultant and mother, please avoid:
Babywise it has been condemned by the American Academy of Pediatrics and La Leche League for its bizarre recommendation that newborns be put on a feeding and sleeping schedule that is pretty much designed to lead to breastfeeding failure, attachment issues, and failure to thrive. The reviews on amazon tell quite a story--some of the 1 star are former 5 star submitters who realized that their baby wasn't "good" or "obedient" or "quiet", they were starving like little Romanian orphans and had given up making noise because they were just ignored. If I could put every copy in an incenerator I would.
The Vaccine Book, a wildly misleading tome full of misinformation and fearmongering. For accurate vaccine information, please read Dr. Paul Offit's Vaccines and your child. He is a vaccinologist, meaning that he has devoted his entire professional career to studying vaccines. Dr. "Bob" is a general pediatrician, like me, and has no additional training in immunology, virology, microbiology, or vaccines.
The NoCry Sleep Solution saved my sanity. At 14 months old my dude was only sleeping in 3 hour increments. It's 100% normal for a child at 6 months old to still be waking through the night, but he should be able to sleep on his own for a nap at least. If cosleeping isn't right for you guys, that's a-okay, but y'all definitely didn't cosleep too long. Don't have high expectations that it's only going to take a few nights for a gentle transition. But it definitely is possible!
Edit: spelling
Did you read No Cry Sleep Solution? It's gospel around here. I'm reading it now. . .
Is it this one?
http://www.amazon.com/No-Cry-Sleep-Solution-Through-Foreword/dp/0071381392
There's the subreddit /r/TryingForABaby/ for people who are trying to conceive.
As for books, I'm a fan of Dr. Sears' stuff. The Baby Book is a good general one. There are tons of more specialized ones out there too but you won't know which one you need until the baby is here and you know his or her personality.
Generally speaking, I wish I'd read a sleep book before the baby was here. I always thought babies would sleep when they're tired with no intervention from you. This is not true. Or not always true. Baby_Snow^1 was a terrible sleeper. I desperately read any sleep book I could find in those first few months. I like The No Cry Sleep Solution because it fits with our parenting style.
Of course with sleep books, you can drive yourself nuts because one book says one thing, another says the complete opposite. The key is to think of them as tools. Take from them what you think will work and what works with your parenting philosophy. None of them are meant to be taken as unalterable game plans.
I think if you're interested in this topic Nagel's Mind and Cosmos would be essential to read. It's addressing an idea that what you're interested in is sitting on -- probably an at least partially unexamined assumption. It's more in the realm of philosophy of science rather than examples of science.
You might look at Nagel's Mind and Cosmos.
I'm not great for current consensus, though 'evo psych' doesn't have the best rep.
Here are a few places to start looking...
Perhaps this will help to explain where I am coming from. I take the Hard Problem of Consciousness very seriously, and believe it has implications for materialistic neo-Darwinism that are extremely important. In terms of scientific importance, this is on the same scale as relativity and QM displacing Newtonian physics. It's massive.
Explained in this book: r/https://www.amazon.co.uk/Mind-Cosmos-Materialist-Neo-Darwinian-Conception/dp/0199919755
Now, if Nagel is right, and I firmly agree that he is, then there's a big question mark about whether evolution on Earth has been somehow teleological - that evolution was "always destined" to produce conscious beings, even if this teleology is "natural" rather than being the result of "intelligent design". Now also take into account the possibility that the cosmos is in fact potentially infinite, and that unobserved bits of it might be in a permanent superposition (ie they don't really exist - they don't become finite - until observed).
The picture I am painting here is one that is completely compatible with modern science, but in the context of a radically different metaphysical setup to the deterministic, materialistic one that currently prevails. And it has implications for the question we're discussing here, because if Nagel is right then the idea that life may only exist on Earth and nowhere else suddenly looks a lot more plausible. And what is key for this discussion is that this change in plausibility is the result of a change in metaphysical context rather than scientific data.
This is a very detailed working out of a kind of stoicism/epicureanism. I appreciate the thought you've put into this. Some books I've enjoyed on stoicism and philosophy of life:
Thought-provoking books that challenge naturalism from a secular perspective:
The best books for you I think are going to be Gene Wolfe's "Book of the New Sun" series. It is very good dark fantasy post apocalyptic work. Very developed and dark world. Such a great writer The first two books are collected in one trade paperback.
https://www.amazon.com/Shadow-Claw-First-Half-Book/dp/0312890176
Sorry about that.
Also, maybe Gene Wolfe's Book of the New Sun?
It's set on Earth in the far far distant future when civilization has fallen to a mostly fallen to a medieval level, but lives amid the ruins of a far greater technologies. There's one tantalizing mystery after another. Though Wolfe's habit of never exactly giving a straight answer to those mysteries is fun and frustrating at the same time.
Ok, possibly secret nugget of awesome: Tad Williams' Otherland series. Starts off fairly slow but when it gets going, you're in for a good, long ride, as there are four books in the series, each with nearly 1000 pages.
Also, Connie Willis has a clever, almost frenetic writing style that I really enjoy. I particularly liked To Say Nothing of the Dog but she has a number of novels that involve her own particular take on time travel.
An older classic that not everyone reads, Gene Wolfe's Book of the New Sun. Like Frank Herbert, Wolfe definitely writes for adults, and also like Herbert it's hard to say whether what he has to say is really significant or if he's just pulling philosophy from his ass.
My first reaction is that it reminds me of Gene Wolfe's The Book of the New Sun
If you enjoyed Vonnegut and Lovecraft, you should try reading The Book of the New Sun, which is a five book series by Gene Wolfe. This series is much better than I had any reason to expect from looking at the cover. It reads like H.P. Lovecraft if he weren't repulsed by everything and actually cared about dialog, and is easily the most rewarding re-readable book I've ever read twice. The language is opaque (the narrator will just assume you know what a balicothere is) and riddled with weird approximations to what is actually going on (because the narrator is probably not being 100% honest), but if you can get into it (it starts a bit slow), the latter half of the series is phenomenal. This author ruined most other science fiction for me.
No.
I adored the earlier Dune books, and was excited for the prequels.
The new writing style is very odd, and you can tell when the authors each wrote alternate chapters. Neither of them seemed to grasp the same grand scale and ancient feeling that FH did to the originals. The settings, characters and plot lack any of the mystery, excitement or depth that the originals had. Notwithstanding the Dune universe setting, they aren't great sci-fi books either.
I read the first with mounting despair, I read the second and abandoned the series. I didn't buy the third or any others. Perhaps they improved an astonishing amount in each subsequent release, but it wasn't worth finding out for me.
For ancient world and conflict sci-fi that introduces deep ideas and has interesting prose, try: Gene Wolfe and his Book of the New Sun series: http://www.amazon.com/Shadow-Claw-First-Half-Book/dp/0312890176/ref=pd_sim_b_6
I also like the epic scale of Dan Simmons - Hyperion and Ilium series are good, though quite unlike Dune.
Shadow & Claw: The First Half of 'The Book of the New Sun' - Gene Wolfe
pretty awesome book. i just got into this and i'm really liking where it's going. It follows this torturer from a torture guild who got banished for showing mercy to one of this victims.
The Book of the New Sun by Gene Wolfe. It's not for the faint of heart, it's extremely literary, but it's good reading.
The recent version by Orb is pretty good. There's an incredible version by Centipede Press but it's only a few thousand dollars! If something gets published by Centipede that's a definite clue to quality.
It comes in two books (it's a teratology - four books in 2 physical volumes - a bit confusing to the book buyer to be honest)
https://www.amazon.com/Shadow-Claw-First-Half-Book/dp/0312890176
https://www.amazon.com/Sword-Citadel-Second-Half-Book/dp/0312890184
I always thought there should have been a subreddit called r/CompSciSoftSkills. I recently read a couple books, Peopleware and then The Mythical Man Month .
Peopleware mentioned that software development was more a sociological process than a technological one and I found that fascinating. I always thought that having a subreddit dedicated to exploring the sociological side of software development would be very interesting and revealing.
... and by extension and exploration of the skills outside whiteboards and code that apply to software dev.
C For Dummies, Volumes 1 and 2, by Dan Gookin. At almost 1200 pages, it goes through everything a beginner should know in a very readable way, with no preconditions on prior knowledge. These books will take you from a complete novice to the sort of programmer who can pick up another language similar to C (most of them) in a couple of weeks.
Unfortunately it looks like they shrunk these tomes into a single book that doesn't even mention pointers in the most recent version. C All-in-One Desk Reference may be closer.
Peopleware, by Tom DeMarco. If you ever want to manage a software development team, or even really work with a team, you owe it to yourself to read this book. Team Geek is in the same realm.
JavaScript: The Good Parts, by Douglas Crockford is a necessary read if you're doing anything significant in modern web development. JavaScript is a weird little language and if you don't know best practices, it's very, very easy to get lost. This book will tell you where not to look.
How about yourself, OP?
Thanks! Will definitely take a look! At this moment I am reading this book Peopleware:
http://www.amazon.com/Peopleware-Productive-Projects-Teams-3rd/dp/0321934113/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1406873165&amp;sr=1-1&amp;keywords=peopleware
It has similar theme: we should care about people and grow together. Unfortunately we don't really have many companies who do that. I mean, just read this thread at polycount (warning: huge wall of text):
http://www.polycount.com/forum/showthread.php?t=137206
Practically everyone is saying that the industry full of incompetent people even at higher management positions who do nothing but make peoples' lives harder. Depressing, isn't it?
I wonder if Peopleware by Tom DeMarco and Tim Lister has been translated to Japanese. If so, then it contains some very solid and well-reasoned arguments on how overtime is counterproductive and hurtful to the business.
Read Peopleware. I don't know how much will be directly applicable, but it sounds like you're the perfect audience for it. I think you'll get something from it.
I just chose some books that looked good from this list and this one.
The one's I got:
Clean Code
(already read)
Cracking the Coding Interview
Code Complete
Peopleware
Don't Make Me Think
Code (currently reading)
Regular Expressions Cookbook
Head First Design Patterns
C++ Primer
Working Effectively with Legacy Code
Elements of Programming Interviews in Java
The Mythical Man-Month
The Design of Everyday Things
JavaScript and JQuery
I figure that's enough reading material to last me until I graduate.
First, congratulations!
It's different work and while it's still technical it's now about people but it can be learned. Find a mentor who is not your boss. Seriously. It's good to have one or more advocates in the organization because there are limits to what "push" vs "pull" can achieve but it's their advice that you need to reduce your mistakes and effectively review them afterward.
I'll add to the book recommendations already here (The Phoenix Project, Team of Teams, Leaders Eat Last) and suggest:
Good luck!
The first book a new programmer should read is Peopleware: Productive Projects and Teams by Tom DeMarco and Timothy Lister.
Senior Level Software Engineer Reading List
Read This First
Fundamentals
Development Theory
Philosophy of Programming
Mentality
Software Engineering Skill Sets
Design
History
Specialist Skills
DevOps Reading List
Stay on-prem.
Unfortunately, you're asking a very broad and vague set of questions. All of those topics you're asking about are an issue to be managed even if you're only using a single cloud provider, let alone multiple ones. Books have been written on these topics. Read those books and build the answers that apply to your job. That's the best way to handle those challenges. There's no silver bullet, not for any one of those topics.
Here's a good starting point, especially if you literally don't know where to start.
https://www.amazon.com/Practice-Cloud-System-Administration-Practices/dp/032194318X/ref=pd_lpo_sbs_14_t_2?_encoding=UTF8&amp;psc=1&amp;refRID=7D6GJ0MDAF0DA469WJK1
Well I'll be the first one to give you generic information that you could have found with the search function.
You just do the needful.
https://www.amazon.com/dp/032194318X/ref=wl_it_dp_o_pC_nS_ttl?_encoding=UTF8&amp;colid=3IXCECMPTZ0C5&amp;coliid=IJFXHOHENJ2FH
https://www.amazon.com/dp/0321492668/ref=wl_it_dp_o_pC_nS_ttl?_encoding=UTF8&amp;colid=3IXCECMPTZ0C5&amp;coliid=I3J2AR8V86JZMD
https://www.amazon.com/dp/0596007833/ref=wl_it_dp_o_pC_nS_ttl?_encoding=UTF8&amp;colid=3IXCECMPTZ0C5&amp;coliid=I2OPTI4J0S4UG2
Good screwdriver set.
https://www.ifixit.com/Store/Tools/64-Bit-Driver-Kit/IF145-299
A network tone tester in case you need to map out your network and document everything. Also functions as a basic cable tester.
https://www.amazon.com/Fluke-Networks-MT-8200-60-KIT-IntelliTone-Toner/dp/B00N2S6RPY/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1473701817&amp;sr=8-5&amp;keywords=fluke+networks+tester
A punch down tool.
https://www.amazon.com/TRENDnet-Punch-Krone-Blade-TC-PDT/dp/B0000AZK4D/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1473702091&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=punchdown
An ethernet crimper.
https://www.amazon.com/TRENDnet-RJ-45-RJ-12-RJ-11-TC-CT68/dp/B0000AZK4G/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1473702137&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=ethernet+crimper
A quick cable stripper.
https://www.amazon.com/Monoprice-Stripper-Cutter-Cables-107051/dp/B0069LRBU6/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1473702190&amp;sr=8-3&amp;keywords=ethernet+stripper
A usb hard drive dock.
https://www.amazon.com/Sabrent-External-Duplicator-Function-EC-HDD2/dp/B00IKC14OG/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1473702021&amp;sr=8-2&amp;keywords=usb+hard+drive+dock
A notebook.
https://www.amazon.com/Rhodia-Meeting-Book-Made-France/dp/B001DCDSW6/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1473702220&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=rhodia+meeting+book
Your necessities may vary, this applies to more of a one-man shop, and there's plenty of other things you'll want to get that I don't have listed here depending on your job.
I dunno how much you should get paid.
> What knowledge do you carry over from the history of our field that you can't easily learn or discover now?
and
> Instead of one system to do everything for the business, I am starting to see a trend towards many specialized systems that are built to interface with other systems.
Go together nicely. This is how things were before the PC took over. What did the old-timers do? What approaches to system design need to be taken into consideration when dealing with multiple vendors that are not interoperable? What about support contract management? These things haven't changed much. And they are hard questions to answer through a book.
Books to read? Hmm. I generally suggest:
And yes these are written by old people.
I like the following book. It reenforces the difference between being in business to work vs being in business to reach your goals. It also lays out steps to take to migrate towards being able to delegate effectively mainly by thinking of everything you do as a checklist.
I'm ESTJ though so the checklist ideas feed my appetite for order.
The E-Myth Revisited: Why Most Small Businesses Don't Work and What to Do About It https://www.amazon.com/dp/0887307280/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_QCCwyb4EX21TM
No. And it's often the reason for business failure.
Read a bit of The E-Myth Revisited on Amazon
TL:DR; Experts in their fields often prefer to focus on the technical aspects of their skill set (i.e. The Technician), at the expense of their equally important roles as The Manager, and The Entrepreneur.
The E-Myth Revisited - Should be required reading for anyone starting a business.
I would read a handful of books first - I'd highly recommend reading The E-Myth Revisited
and Business Model Generation
As for courses, I wouldn't just stick to one resource to learn these things, but take advantage of free trials like lynda.com, they have super good courses on SEO and Marketing.
There are also thousands of great YouTube videos, articles and blogs which you can follow too. Stanford Business School have many lectures online also.
Trust me, you don't want to rely on one resource for this stuff, build your knowledge from many different places.
Good luck.
If you have the time, I would enroll here:
http://fasttrac.org/entrepreneurs/programs/FastTrac%20NewVenture.aspx
If you live in NYC:
Helpful books/resources:
This quote helped me:
“Nothing is original. Steal from anywhere that resonates with inspiration or fuels your imagination. Devour old films, new films, music, books, paintings, photographs, poems, dreams, random conversations, architecture, bridges, street signs, trees, clouds, bodies of water, light and shadows. Select only things to steal from that speak directly to your soul. If you do this, your work (and theft) will be authentic. Authenticity is invaluable; originality is non-existent. And don’t bother concealing your thievery - celebrate it if you feel like it. In any case, always remember what Jean-Luc Godard said: “It’s not where you take things from - it’s where you take them to.” -Jim Jarmusch
Services:
The E-Myth Revisited
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses-About/dp/0887307280
Hoow. Well, I'm in the middle of re-reading The E-Myth, since it's a good refresher and I find myself having to scale up one of my businesses.
I'm looking at (re)reading Deep Survival next week because I'm going on retreat. I have saved it for a close reading and copious notes because I think there's something similar in the people who survive dangerous situations and the people who survive and thrive in starting small businesses.
I'm in the middle of The Social Animal, by David Brooks, which I adore. I think I'm going to keep it. (That's saying something, since I read voraciously, but I have only one shelf of books I felt was worth revisiting.) The way he's tackled the book is very interesting and it's incredibly deftly done.
I have Republic of Thieves out from the library, the newest in the Gentleman Bastards series. I don't know when I'm going to get to it. When I start a fiction book I tend to read it straight through, and nothing else gets done, so I'm loathe to start one.
I also have TapDancing to Work the new Warren Buffet autobiography, The Compass of Pleasure (which has been on my wishlist so long I've forgotten what I wanted it for) and Medieval Mercenaries a book about the history of mercenaries. I've always been very interested in mercenaries. I don't know why.
Today a friend recommended The Small Business Life Cycle which I already own, so it will be moving up on the list. I really admire the author, a US Army veteran and philosopher.
One book that i found useful, early in my startup life was this: http://www.amazon.com/Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses-About/dp/0887307280. It helped me differentiate "business" from what i love doing(coding).
May I suggest the book "The E-Myth Revisited: Why Most Small Businesses Don't Work and What to Do About It"
It seems to cover this topic really well. Recommended reading to any mom and pop business.
Wow, your story is so similar to mine. Sorry these posts are so long, but I wished I had someone to tell me all this stuff along the way..
I started a residential painting company. But I had no clue what I wanted to do when I started back to school at 25.
The key is that I started moving in a whole new direction. I had lots of job opportunities prior to college that I sabatoged for myself because I didn't want to wait to go to the next level. I would always excel, but I hated working for other people - busting my ass so some jerk can take his kids to Disney World while I trudge through another day.
Finally at my last job before going back to college, I struggled to work 40hrs a week because they just didn't have work all the time. That was it for me. I knew if I was going to get to a place in life where I could make the money I wanted and live the life I wanted I WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO DO IT AS AN EMPLOYEE. Due both to my past and in general that's just the way it goes when working directly for someone else.
I had no clue but I knew I wanted to be a boss, create jobs, be the man. And I knew to get to that I would have to work harder and smarter than the average Joe's in school and business.
I ended up going to a really good business school and through that experience I learned about the painting industry.
I'm not saying you have to start a business, but you have to start a journey. It took me 6 years to get my bachelor of science accounting degree. I met my wife and had a child along the way. I struggled with strained relationships, financial hardship, car troubles and even classes sometimes (which I dropped and took in the evening or summer when they're easier). But, I didn't waiver in my zeal to be the new me. A college man, father, businessman, job creator, client pleaser.
Just start SOMETHING. Choose a general direction and MOVE. You don't know for sure, but go in a direction that's forgiving. For me I reasoned an accounting degree will work regardless of what I choose to do in business. Once you gain new experiences you will realize your talents. Or find some you never knew you had. I thought I would never be a salesman, but through a close friend I met in college I learned that other than the owners of a business salesmen make the most money. And to create my own business I had to become a salesman. And I'm really good at it thanks to my past experiences.
Oh, And my buddy from college- he makes bank too and was just like us-that's why we got along so well. Because we had a deeper drive than the rest. We had to succeed to get where we wanted. And so will you.
Regardless of what you choose to do, you should read "E myth" as soon as possible!
http://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/0887307280?pc_redir=1404788599&amp;robot_redir=1
You won't need to really do anything as far as getting your business in order, but it will give you a perspective on business that gives you an advantage over most regular people in society. The perspective the book gives is one of three things I paid thousands of dollars to learn in a top business school. The second thing I learned is to have a goal and move toward it; along the way make meaningful connections / network, and finally I learned about the opportunity in the industry I now work. You get most of this wisdom for free. You simply must do it. It's that simple; do it.
Let me know if you have any other questions, any time.
There are many powerful resources available at no cost for small businesses including counseling and mentoring with experienced business owners.
One of the largest organizations that offers assistance is here
www.score.org/mentors
If hiring someone is not an option you could work with a mentor to understand the basics and then discuss bringing in someone to coach you. Operating a business day to day isn't rocket science once you have some basic systems in place. It's the building and trusting those systems that takes time to learn.
A POWERful book you could read would be the E-Myth Revisited by Michael Gerber. It's short and to the point. Most importantly it shows you what NOT to do. Then you can follow up with reading the E-Myth Mastery to learn what it takes to operate a successful business. These two books have guided me on building 6 different businesses and help me coach several organizations with great results.
When I was 22 I was handed these books by a teacher of a class I was attending because I wouldn't stop asking business questions. He told me that if I read and applied those two books I'd be ahead of most 6 year MBA students. E-Myth Revisited is a powerful story about a lady named Sarah who owns a pie shop. She opened it because everyone told her she was good at making pies. So she opened a pie shop. She hates pies now and wishes she never had to make a pie again. Not because she hates pies, but she had no idea how to run a pie business, only how to make pies. Through the book Michael helps her understand her anger and frustration, not with pies, but with the business of pies and how to turn her pie business from a pie job into a business that runs without her. 10 years later I still use Sarah in my day to day life as I build new businesses and coach others.
Hope this you find something in this that strikes a note and helps you along your way.
this book : E-Myth Revisited: Why Most Small Businesses Don't Work and What to Do About It
There’s a great book about this if anyone is interested in also hearing about how much better life is for most of the world. Factfulness
The truth is, so much of what we see in the news, on social, etc. is geared towards fear because it’s such a powerful emotion. Nothing is perfect, nor will it ever be, but if you look at the problems we have today vs those of even 50 years ago, it’s amazing how far we have come
There is still more to be done, don’t get me wrong. But feeling hopeless is a great way to demotivate yourself and a simple way for those in power to stay there, especially while fucking over “their” people.
Here is a book on that topic.
https://www.amazon.com/Factfulness-Reasons-World-Things-Better/dp/1250107814
You should read the book Factfulness.
Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World--and Why Things Are Better Than You Think https://www.amazon.com/dp/1250107814/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_jyCYBbN7HD2TP
Bill Gates bought it for all graduating college seniors in the US. It's basically about how we have antiquated views of the world, and things are generally much better than we think. In other words, it's worth it to make the world a better place because it's actually helping.
This stuff is not easy, I'm not expecting to change your way of thinking with this one comment.
But maybe it could help you with exploring a different angle and realising that not all things are bad and that there's also a lot of good in the world.
I'd say:
Yes there is a lot of dumb and awful things in the world, but it is easier to focus on the bad than the good, there's also many amazing advancements humans are making every day by working at it diligently:
Worldwide poverty is lower than it has ever been in history and keeps dropping.
People are finding cures for awful diseases all the time.
Nations are becoming more and more developed, child deaths and births are dropping, there's no endless growth happening, it's all dropping off to a stable level.
Companies have always done shady shit, but we are getting better at calling them out and improving people's lives.
More people have the right to live happily, to marry who they love.
There's no widespread slavery anymore, there's not even a real war between nation states, just some terrorist dudes in a desert somewhere, and yes that is in the news all the time but compared to even the balkan wars in the 90s there's nowhere near as much suffering in today's world.
For every "bought" artist there's lots of people and groups making their own music and having success with it, it's easy to look at most listened to lists on youtube or spotify and dismiss all of those artists but take a look at smaller artists, browse bandcamp or something to find people that do what they love and support them with it.
There's a great book that puts a lot of these fallacies of thinking the world is getting worse to the test but I forgot the name of it, you'll have to take my word until I can find it again.
Edit: found it, check it out for another perspective on things if you wish:
link
Extreme poverty is actually the lowest than it has ever been, and it's getting better everyday.
We are not perfect yet, and there's still a lot to be done, but I do have a lot of hope for the future.
This book will possibly change how you view the world:
https://www.amazon.com/Factfulness-Reasons-World-Things-Better/dp/1250107814/ref=nodl_
http://factfulnessquiz.com/
it's frustrating people are down voting you when your suspicion is correct. anyone who feels the urge to down vote would hopefully get a lot from reading a book like Factfulness.
Read Rosling's Factfulness. The book format is nice, but the .pdf is everywhere. Watch Hans' TED talks, too. They're the core ideas, condensed. Here's one of his earlier ones, but I think it's one of his best, too.
The data is real. When your cynicism pushes back, tell it to get bent and accept the factual truth that it falsely proclaims it has sole access to. That's what I did to mine, and it was pretty effective, too.
Recomendo fortemente pra você o livro Factfulness
The Personal MBA
The Personal MBA - excellent resource and really helps you grasp the business side.
http://www.amazon.com/The-Personal-MBA-Master-Business/dp/1591845572
I'm working on an MBA right now with about 12 years in the IT industry, 5 of which has been in IT Management. If I didn't have real world experience under my belt I wouldn't be able to apply a lot of what I'm learning. Personally, I have to apply what I'm learning for it to really stick. If I didn't have real world experience then sure, I'd still get good grades, but grades alone aren't the point right? School and the business world are very different. I highly recommend getting out there gaining some experiential education, and then take on the MBA if you still think it would be valuable.
A large part of the value in a good MBA program is networking and what you learn over and above the course material by interacting with your professors and fellow students. That said, if you want a crash course in some of the business fundamentals that may be taught in a typical MBA program, I've heard many people highly recommend the following book.
The Personal MBA: Master the Art of Business
I am not much of a book reader but the Personal MBA is a great read. I feel without a doubt that I got my money's worth of information about business in general.
https://www.amazon.com/Personal-MBA-Master-Art-Business/dp/1591845572
Somebody read: The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't
Nonfiction:
On the fiction front, I potentially want to read Where'd You Go, Bernadette? by Maria Semple. The thing is... with new fiction, I tend to wait for friends/colleagues to read the novel first.
Most are liars; There are ways to predict future player behavior, though. NateSilver is legendary for exploiting this ability, and he's published a guidebook on it: http://www.amazon.com/The-Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions/dp/159420411X
More generally, predictions hinge on other skills. You'll want to learn [[statistics]] and [[probability]], followed by domain-specific research into what exactly you want to predict (for predicting other players, you'll want [[psychology]], for example).
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I would also recommend this book Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions
It talks about how our mind work when comes to decision making and it can actually helps you make a better decision.
Have you read this book?
https://www.amazon.com/Algorithms-Live-Computer-Science-Decisions/dp/1627790365
I read a lot of these as a neurophysiologist on my way to transitioning into an ML career! My favorites (which aren’t already listed by others here) are Algorithms to Live By by Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths and How to Make a Mind by Ray Kurzweil. While it’s a bit tangential, I also loved The Smarter Screen by Jonah Lehrer and Shlomo Benartzi, which deals with human-computer interaction.
Can check my previous answers on this topic (just answered one a few comments ago) and I work in the field high and long enough to lead and hire teams.
> What are some of the best jobs in hardware engineering ?
Completely depends on your option on 'best'. But in terms of pay it is military hardware R&D and R&D for a company like Intel, but again it depends on a ton of factors.
> What type of hardware engineers work on processors ?
What part? What is takes to make a modern processor is actually very complicated and has a ton of different engineering to it from material science to computer engineering and computer science.
> What type of hardware engineers work with medical technology?
I actually use to work on medical tech and I also have a Biomedical engineering degree, you don't "need" to if you have a solid other engineering degree but it drastically helps.
> Should I go for my masters in hardware engineering ?
Completely depends on what all you want to do, in engineering a masters isn't nearly as required to make a jump in the field as other majors but if you want to get into the deep R&D field then yes.
> I want to start on the management side of the technology field what degrees would help me get at the top of management after college ?
Define "management" because if you just mean things like 'lead developer' and so on then just your the same major with some years of experience.
> Are there any classes that I could watch for free to get ahead in my courses ?
Code academy and various tech talks are good. CMU, MIT, and a few others put up various resources for their programming and computer science classes online.
> What are important coding languages I must learn ?
OH BOY, people fixate WAY to hard on this and honestly one of the biggest ways to "tank". There are for sure 'useful' programming languages that many companies are hiring for but it is much more important to know HOW and WHY programming languages work because it makes it easier to pick up a ton on the fly.
Beyond that one of the "best" starting programming languages to learn is Python. Once you comfortable with that then work with C/C++ and then brush up on how assembly works.
> Are there any math courses that will prep me for the field?
Discrete mathematics is the foundation of modern computer science and one of the biggest things that differentiate candidates I interview.
> Any books that I could read on a daily basses regarding the field ?
This is my 'default' starting book for those interested in the field but might not fully know enough for higher level topics.
Short answer: DO NOT expect to be instantly jumping in to working with some 'really cool shit'. Heck you shouldn't even be really thinking of actual computers and hardware for awhile and learn just how important and how deep the "True Math" we had was.
I'm reading Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow right now. (It's only $2.99 on Kindle.) It's an enjoyable read on a significant topic.
Look into the literature on heuristics and biases. There are all kinds of irrational habits we build up without noticing. Kahneman is a great place to start with this kind of thing. If you can get past the cultish atmosphere less wrong is good too.
This book is about this phenomena.
I think both intuition or instinct are used to describe the intuitive leap born of experience that can lead to the right answer without a chain of reasoned thought to connect the stimulus and the response.
I have always found Malcolm Gladwell's books to be immensely entertaining. He can be a bit repetitive in pounding his major theses home and I wouldn't advocate for treating any of his theories as the gospel but he is a gifted storyteller and many of his stories regard psychological research.
The Psychopath Test Fascinating look at psychopaths by one of my favorite journalists. Well researched as has some scientific depth but is certainly geared towards the layman.
The Invisible Gorilla Very readable tour through some of our cognitive flaws and blind spots by two psychologists.
Thinking, Fast and Slow Very comprehensive account of how people make decisions by the father of behavioral economics.
https://www.amazon.com/Combating-Cult-Mind-Control-Best-selling/dp/0967068827
https://www.amazon.com/Never-Split-Difference-Negotiating-Depended-ebook/dp/B014DUR7L2
Never Split the Difference, By Chris Voss
He is a retired Negotiator from the FBI.
https://www.amazon.com/Never-Split-Difference-Negotiating-Depended-ebook/dp/B014DUR7L2
Try reading, Never Split the Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It https://www.amazon.com/dp/B014DUR7L2/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_i_G1PBDb1VP55FH
Mirroring and labeling.
Basically most conflicts esculate because the other person feels like theyre not being heard. You can avoid or deesculate this by...just taking what they're saying and feeding it back to them.
So you identify their emotion and then say something like 'it sounds like you're...[angry]' 'it seems like youre upset because...[reason]' (use neutral observer language: it sounds like, it seems like, it looks like, etc, not 'I think youre angry' which is too personal and reads like a challenge)
This sounds patronising but when their emotions are up they aren't thinking straight enough to notice it, and they wont until they've calmed down, and they wont calm down until they've vented what is bothering them and had it acknowledged.
If this is successful there will be a tangible change in the energy, a slump as as they've 'got it out'. Then and only then is when you can start offering potential next steps.
Note that getting them to acknowledge whats bothering them isnt the same thing as agreeing that you will fix it. The trick is to get them agreeing that youve totally summarised their position and their emotions are totally valid while also making it clear you can/will make no promises to fix it.
Sources, (both talk about this concept)
https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B00IWUSZ84/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&amp;btkr=1
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Never-Split-Difference-Negotiating-Depended-ebook/dp/B014DUR7L2
LPT: Read this book instead - https://www.amazon.com/Never-Split-Difference-Negotiating-Depended-ebook/dp/B014DUR7L2
yes, nothing can be pure original. Even the artist emotions are responses to stimuli that have shaped their opinion. It might be a unique perspective since there might not be many in a similar situation, but i bet if people dig around- they will find that others share their predicament.
Read "The Black Swan" by Nassim Taleb; great book and he talks about all the failures that no one sees- it leads to optimism.
I'm currently reading The Black Swan and couldn't agree with you more.
The Black Swan
http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1301874685&amp;sr=8-3
Not Black Swan
http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Natalie-Portman/dp/B0041KKYEM/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1301874685&amp;sr=8-1
I do believe my own advice, but it's not exactly the most upbeat advice.
Too often, people preach faith. This just does not resonate with me. Not at all. But for me, I found that my skepticism serves the same purpose as others' faith. So I preach skepticism.
Preaching faith means trying to convince someone that everything will be fine in the end. I don't believe that, and nobody's really going to convince me. When I'm depressed, I'm quite certain that everything is and will continue to be miserable. I'll bet you are, too.
Preaching skepticism means trying to un-convince someone that everything will be terrible. This is more realistic. I'm not going to tell you you're wrong -- only that you might be, because you are, like everyone other human, basically a dumbass. Your certainty is suspect, and you need to be skeptical of yourself. You don't really know the future. I don't either. But shit happens -- and occasionally good shit happens, too. You can't predict it.
Maybe everything in your entire life, everything you've observed and read about human history, supports your worldview and the model of reality you have in your head. Maybe you think that means you're right, and your model gives you predictive powers. This is almost certainly bullshit, though, for two reasons:
I highly recommend reading the book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. He expands on this thesis relentlessly and convincingly.
People are stupid. You're a person. Therefore, you are stupid. Consider this, and question yourself. Of course, I'm phrasing this a little aggressively here; I really don't want it to sound like I'm beating up on anyone and saying "you're only depressed because you're an idiot!" Not at all. I respect your experience, I respect your views, and most of all I respect your feelings. I just mean that humans are flawed creatures and we should treat ourselves as such, and never be too confident in our own judgments.
TL;DR: Applied toward the negative, skepticism is like faith, and doubt is like hope. I preach skepticism and doubt, because they resonate with me in ways that faith and hope have never come close to.
I was a math major in college in the 70s, and in the math honor society. In my senior year we invited people in once a month or so to give talks about careers in mathematics. (Note: this being well before the mini- and micro-computer revolutions, jobs in math were not as obvious as they are now.)
Anyway, we had an actuary come in for one talk, and it kind of piqued my interest to the point that I notice articles and such about actuarial careers when I happen across them.
One thing I read quite a while back was that actuaries have one of the highest job satisfaction ratings among all professions. I don't know if this is still true, but it allegedly was in the 90s.
From what I can tell, there are a number of different ways you can go once you've actually reached a certain level with your exams. So that's probably worth checking out, too. In particular, I remember reading once that a team of actuaries helped some newly-democratic nation design it's entire economic and financial system. Again, this was a few decades ago, but maybe worth checking out (e.g., non-obvious jobs actuaries do).
But finally, you might want to read two books by Nassim Nicholas Taleb:
Fooled by Randomness
The Black Swan
Although he's an insufferable bore as a writer, he does have some pretty interesting and compelling arguments about our flawed probability models. Essentially he says that we're like the drunk guy who's looking under the lamp post for his lost keys because that's where the light is, rather than down the block in the dark where he actually lost them. Translated: we use normal distributions to predict rare events because we understand normal distributions, but they don't actually apply to large scale human behavioral events, and we always end up getting surprised by the latest financial disaster.
Anyway, good luck.
Basic Economics - Thomas Sowell
Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age - Duncan Watts
Linked: How Everything Is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means - Albert-Laszlo Barabasi
Nexus: Small Worlds and the Groundbreaking Theory of Networks - Mark Buchanan
The Selfish Gene - Richard Dawkins
Sperm Wars: Infidelity, Sexual Conflict, and Other Bedroom Battles - Robin Baker
Motley Crue: The Dirt - Confessions of the World's Most Notorious Rock Band - Neil Strauss
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable - Nassim Nicholas Taleb
The World is Flat - Thomas Friedman
The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference - Malcolm Gladwell
The Wisdom of Crowds - James Surowiecki
Into Thin Air: A Personal Account of the Mt. Everest Disaster - Jon Krakauer
The Climb - Anatoli Boukreev
Ultramarathon Man: Confessions of an All-Night Runner - Dean Karnazes
If we're recommending books in nonfiction, I will recommend The Black Swan by NN Taleb. It changed the way I think about thinking entirely, and probably colors most of how accepting I am of strange ideas.
I just walked into a Fidelity office and asked them for help opening an account. Now I can access it online to look at stocks available for sale, set up stock screeners, and find their SEC filings (oftentimes I go ahead and just check the EDGAR database..
There is some minimum you have to have to start out with but I've forgotten what it is (I think $1k). I started with only $3k.
People here are going to recommend you not retail invest. Considering your statement "I'm mostly interested in companies that pay dividends like ge or intel since I want stability and low maintenance." I'm going to recommend you do some more reading and research before you start investing. If you really, truly want 'low maintenance' then you don't want to pick stocks. It involves reading long and dry financial reports and SEC filings, doing some easy but boring math, and following up every now and then with yearly and quarterly reports and shareholder voting. Technically once you get into the practice it only takes like a handful of hours a month if you're a sit-and-hold investor (which you should be), but it's a lot more work than most people are willing to do, and retail investors typically earn less than indices.
For basics of investing, check out Investopedia. Go through their tutorials; they also link to speculation games where you can purchase some stock and see how you do for a few months to a year. I'm also a huge fan of Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor. Another book that comes highly recommended everywhere I look but I haven't read yet (high on my to-do list) is The Black Swan. I would say if you've gone through all the work of reading these books and STILL want to stock pick, then you're good to go.
As a relatively arbitrary decision, I decided to put 10% of my income into my personal investment account (this would be after employer matched 401k and taking out another 10% for savings). My philosophy behind this being that if I lose every single cent from my personal account, I've only lost 10% of my earnings (though more than 10% of my wealth). This way I get to have some fun and still be cautious. Not saying you should follow this as a rule, just saying that before you invest in a financial asset that can possibly lose all of its value, you should know how much you are willing to lose.
Edit: I just wanted to mention, I enjoy reading the financial reports and such, actually, because it gives me a new perspective on the world around me and the sorts of things running under the products I take for granted that I otherwise wouldn't think about. For me retail investing gives me access to a realm of information most other people are not aware of, or interested in. It's made me look at products, services, and businesses differently and now I have a lot more connected view of just where this bottle of shampoo came from, where the aluminum in a Coca Cola can was delivered, and so forth. This is an intangible benefit that can't be calculated into my ROI. If you're really interested in learning where Alcoa owns aluminum mines and the states of the roads leading up to those mines, become a retail investor. Or you can just read SEC filings. Few people, ever, mention this aspect of retail investment as a benefit.
If you have a chance, read a book called The Black Swan.
http://www.amazon.com/The-Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness/dp/081297381X
It's a bit technical in some parts, but it discusses how highly improbably events can have massive changes. How people meet their spouses/significant others is a good example. One of the things that encourages these black swan events is just getting out there and meeting people. You never know when you might meet the person you end up with. It might be at a convention, work, or a chance meeting at a library where you notice someone reading a great book ;) Plus, lots more options nowadays on-line ;)
Not sure if it fits into your conception of what you're looking for, but consulting is your own business.
Get 1-2 clients while at your current job and then dive in headfirst.
As long as you stay vigilant about treating it like a company and not a job (read the E-Myth). You don't want to wake up 5 years later and realized you've owned a job. Look to hire. Look to scale. Look to outsource. Look at your margins.
I started that way and now there's 30 people here.
Read E-Myth Revisited and Built to Sell.
Get help from someone who's done it before. Some sources:
http://e-myth.com
http://www.thesellabilityscore.com/
Hey man, I'm just trying to save another poor schmuck from entering specialty retail. It's a horrible business.
Read The E-Myth and you'll understand why someone who knows about guns doesn't make a good gun retailer.
Before you do that though, read the E-myth.
Aye. I've financed over 6 million dollar deals at banks with 1.5 locations in towns with population under 20k.
go to the first bank and see what they need, put all that info into a package, put that in gdrive/dropbox etc. and print it out a dozen times.
we've literally done 5 million dollar deals with handmade spreadsheets and sketched drawings.
but every fucking lender needs all these damn documents. and glad handing.
Good luck, and I'd recommend getting the business in your name or your SO's. also, I'd recommenced putting in writing what each other's responsibilities are. Read/listen to http://www.amazon.com/The-E-Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses/dp/0887307280
make sure everyone knows that you are the first and the best (politely)
"the original jonwondering adjustable bench!"
imitation is flattery, even if it does cut into your profits. just be better than the copy-cat. Be careful to build a business, not a job ( one of my failings). I highly recommend The E Myth, I read it too late to save my first business, next will be better.
> sforming from break-fix to monthly contracts. How do you price the monthly contracts, what do clients get? 2) I'd like to scale employee-wise. Meaning, I'd like to have a number of techs working along-side me. How do they get paid, as a salary?
I'm currently reading it, almost finished, like 30 pages only left but when I started reading it, I quickly bought also the The E-Myth (revisited edition) from Micheal Gerber. You should definitively read it too. I'm a tech on the break/fix model since the last 9 years and in the next months I will switch to a MSP model. Other quick recommandation if you need help/inspiration to create your service agreement, buy also the Service Agreements for SMB Consultants, from the same author of Managed Service in a month. Definitively worth the money and time to read it.
Great! I would recommend starting with The EMyth Revisited and Fanatical Prospecting. Both books are great to give you some good tools to start out with and put you in the right mindset to succeed. I like Managed Services in a Month as well, but realistically if you've worked in the industry at established MSPs, there's not a lot groundbreaking there. It's a good re-affirmation, though.
There are a lot of pop psychology books that cover at least the social psychological parts of what I learned:
The Person and Situation by Lee Ross and Richard Nisbett
Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion by Robert Cialdini
Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
What Makes Love Last by John Gottman
Nudge by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein
(Caveat: I've only read Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge, but the others are from well-respected authors/leaders in their fields.)
> I think I've come to the realization that there's a severe disconnect within me between my emotional self ... and my intellectual self
Welcome to dual process theory - I'd totally recommend reading Thinking, Fast and Slow.
> And then the doubt starts. What if I'm wrong? What if I'm basically full of shit and I'm hurting a whole lot of people with my views? But if I change them, what if I'm THEN wrong?
Been there; done that. I'd say that I've just gotten reasonably comfortable with the idea that I'm probably often wrong, but then again I'd probably be lying to myself.
> And then put on top of that the feeling that maybe I should just go with the tribe so I don't even have to worry about this sort of thing.
I personally found reading The Righteous Mind pretty therapeutic - helpful in reducing your hostility to those in other groups as well as I think helping be less self-critical of the idea that you might later opt to switch groups.
Have you tried reading non-fiction books? They usually stay pretty focused on the title topic. That's what I do, anyway.
Here's one if you need a recommendation -
http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555/
15 and College? What country? Do you have a note from your mom?
Read this book and learn how your mind operates.
Thinking, Fast and Slow
https://www.amazon.com/dp/0374533555/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_lsitybPXJHP2B
A good book on the matter http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555. The same is true if you ommit letters or words. A lot of road signs actually this to allow you to read at fast speeds.
\> I'm open to suggestion about how to "demonstrate" to your satisfaction that I'm acting rationally,
I hardly have an idea what you claim. How could I know what would demonstrate proof of it?
\> Given the available evidence, I've concluded that Christianity best fits what we know about the world.
Ok, what evidence?
\> the most persuasive part is the ethical system laid out in the Gospels, which best expresses a super-human morality.
This expresses why you like it, not why it's Right.
\> I have some personal experience of God as well, and a strong sense of the numinous in general
More detail on that would be helpful.
\> when I first started having these discussions online it was hard to believe that not everyone has that same feeling.
There's a good chance that with training in meditation, most people can. Certainly, what little you've offered so far is similar to the description offered across many religions around the world... and that gets us back to the question of how you know that yours is the Right one.
\> I won't ask you to demonstrate that you come by your conclusions rationally, because I assume that anyone going onto a debate subreddit has done their homework until proven otherwise.
Which of my conclusions? Evidence suggests that people don't come to their conclusions rationally. See Daniel Kahneman's work.
The mind loves cognitive ease. Thinking requires energy from the body -- your heart rate increases, pupils dilate, etc.
Psychologist Daniel Kahneman covers this in depth in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow
http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555
Thinking Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman
9/10
Physiology
A beautiful, sightful summery of Kahneman's research about the way we think, which led to him and his partner, Amos, to win a Nobel Prize in economics in 2002.
Amazon
Very Special Relativity a simple explanation of a complex phenomena
Thinking, Fast and Slow explains why we actually do live in a Matrix, and how, focusing on statistics instead what your guts tell you, to be able to break the veil of lies sometimes.
Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid how music is connected with art and mathematics? Exploration of symmetries, where none are expected to be found.
Watch everything Richard P. Feynman related on YouTube, start with interviews and the rest will probably follow.
I seriously think you should start with science. Getting a glimpse of how world works at the quantum levels can surprisingly enlighten someone on topics one thought were philosophical. E.g. recent Reddit post asked whether true randomness exists, and the answer to read almost pointless kilograms of philosophy made me cringe. Quantum physics has tonnes more to say, and it's actually verifiable by experiment. So I guess my advice is, before going the way of philosophical banter about the existence of coffee shop around the corner, you can just walk the few steps and take a look yourself. Hence, science as a first suggestion.
"Thinking: Fast and Slow". It's not about religion at all. But when you see how full of pitfalls (cognitive biases) human thought is, you will, be more inclined to seek more robust metrics to what you determine as "truth".
Just started reading "Thinking Fast and Slow" - Kahneman - My brain is beginning to realize exactly how much of a mind-f*** this is about to be. :) No I'm not reading this because it's a Winner of anything or on any list, but because I love these kind of sociological trips, or books that just speak to you on the shelf about "the human condition" , otherwise I won't read it.
http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555
100% the starting point should be Kahneman's book. Here. Thinking Fast and Slow. Amazingly insightful guy.
I have good news. They aren't. Well, that implies there are worse people which isn't awesome but that's not the real point, wait here...let me try again:
I've been reading Thinking Fast and Slow which talks about a theory of how our brains are structured in terms of their thinking processes.
In particular, it focuses on how that affects the way we decided how probably things are.
The good news is that while it works pretty darn well, this is probably partly a spot where (among other stuff) it's more a question of what's easy to recall or What You See Is All There Is and other ideas it presents.
Basically, because it's EASY to remember gamers being assholes we sort of automatically default to thinking it's also really common. This works pretty well, except when you get things like global news and unpleasant things being more memorable.
So it's probably SOMEWHAT that we just more easily remember all the jerks than the no-impact-non-jerks and then we default to seeing them everywhere. (Like when you get a new car and then see that model EVERYWHERE a bit.)
C. G. P. Gray has a nice bit on how pissy things spread faster, as well, which makes it worse.
TL;DR: I don't understand rhetorical or purely emotive questions which weren't expecting an actual response.
Also, I don't know but they really are and I'm sick of all the assholes, too. It wears me out. :/
If you think that's interesting, you might like The Drunkard's Walk.
You're absolutely right that Reginault is wrong. I first came across this probability brain teaser in The Drunkard's Walk. I could not wrap my head around it after reading it, and so finally I wrote a little program in Python to brute force its way through 10,000 iterations of this game and report the results of sticking with one's gut and then always switching. I ran it over and over, because the results initially shocked me -- even though the book had tried to convince me of what I saw on my computer's screen.
You should always switch. For some reason, after I saw it with my own two eyes, I began to be able to reason through the problem and grasp it intellectually. (That's probably an issue for another book!)
The same way everyone above a certain age takes for granted that we experience optical illusions, we have to realize that we also experience things that could perhaps be called cognitive illusions. Our brains are built a certain way, and we have to work very hard in some cases to go against our brain's gut.
Leonard Mlodinow's The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives is all about probability, chance, and our flawed human perceptions of them. It also touches on causality and how we pick out patterns in the world around us that may or may not be there. It's very well-written and entertaining and has bits of the history of probability mixed in.
See, this to me is the wrong way to think about business.
RIM was leader in enterprise systems until late last year and is still second. They have huge market share. They also hold niche markets like secure smart phones and tablets. From a business perspective, they are in an enviable position.
The problem isn't with their position; it is with their trend. If they had been on an upward trend to the position they are currently in, everyone would be screaming about how great they are. In business it is position that matters more than trend. A trend can change, and effort can be put in to change the trend if you understand it. Many companies have done this. Apple is a prime example of a failed company that turned it around and became a market leader. Twelve years ago everyone thought of Apple the way people think of RIM today.
RIM is in a good position right now, and if they make the right moves they can reverse that trend. iPhones/iPads are fine, but they aren't perfect. They became fashionable and trendy and possibly overhyped. Steve Jobs was part of that trendiness. With him gone, and iPhone losing its "newness", it seems to me the time is ripe to move to change those trends.
I don't know what the right moves are. The question is whether RIM can figure it out, or gamble correctly, to change those trends. They definitely have the makings for it with top notch hardware and OS software, key differentiators and niches, and potential (such as Android apps working on PlayBook and soon phones).
The over-reliance of investors (and "trendy" consumers) on trends is fairly well documented. (My favorite book on the subject right now is The Drunkards Walk, though a A Random Walk Down Wall Street is probably the better known classic.) It's what causes bubbles on the upswing, and undervalued stocks on the downswing. It's also why investors who ignore those trends and invest via risk management principles tend to do much better than trend followers.
I'm keeping an eye on RIM to see what they do. I certainly won't write them off yet.
"The Drunkards Walk: how randomness rules our lives" by Leonard Mlodinow : http://www.amazon.ca/The-Drunkards-Walk-Randomness-Rules/dp/0375424040 ... Stephen Hawking calls the book "a wonderfully readable guide to how the laws of randomness affect our lives."
Are you going to argue AGAINST Stephen Hawking? Me neither...
From the Amazon review:
"In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.
The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO--in fact, of all our destinies--reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery.
How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.
Offering readers not only a tour of randomness, chance, and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man fresh from a night at the bar."
Here’s a good website to walk you through creating a business model canvas.
https://www.strategyzer.com/canvas/business-model-canvas
It’s based on this book which is a great resource
https://www.amazon.com/Business-Model-Generation-Visionaries-Challengers/dp/0470876417/ref=nodl_
I had the same problem in business school. I'm went back mid-career and sometimes it felt like I was taking classes from the 90's.
If you're interested in a more recent approach to business models, check out Business Model Generation. It provides a canvas that helps you visualize how different components of a business model interact and influence each other. It's also filled with great examples of how businesses you know would be modeled through their framework.
Can you be more specific about your advertising ask? Google & Facebook are both anchored in ads to generate revenue. Many "freemium" products supplement subscriptions with ad revenue. If a digital experience feels like you're "getting it for free" it's likely either supported by ads or IS an ad for something else.
While it's not digital business model exclusive, I'm a big fan of Andrew Chen. His once a week newsletter is a must read for me (I'm a consultant in digital strategy/digital product). He talks a lot about the underlying economics of companies and why certain technologies win in certain circumstances and other don't. https://andrewchen.co
You might find some of these resources helpful to get a sense of some of the moving parts for the "lean" / "customer development" approach:
Steve Blank's free Udemy course: https://www.udacity.com/course/how-to-build-a-startup--ep245
And his protege Eric Ries' Lean Startup book:
https://www.amazon.com/Lean-Startup-Entrepreneurs-Continuous-Innovation/dp/0307887898
And Blanks'
https://www.amazon.com/Business-Model-Generation-Visionaries-Challengers/dp/0470876417
A rough, top-level, possible roadmap for a bootstrapped solo product:
When I find myself in this position (which I'm currently in after burning 18 months and a big chunk of cash on my last startup only to have it fail), I usually slink off, lick my wounds, do a lot fo reading and then approach my next project feeling a little more educated, refreshed, and ready.
Some suggestions if I may:
Founders At Work is an easy, fun and somewhat inspirational read. The concept behind 4 Steps to an Epiphany is pretty simple, so odds are you won't need to read the whole book as its a little dry. It is authored by Steve Blank and I highly recommend watching his lectures on youtube. Business Model Generation was a mind bender and I've read it about 6 times. I've run all my past businesses and current business through it plus a couple non-profits. It is fantastic and I love it.
Yes that book, I have that book, and also grab the art of deception by kevin mitnick here. If you want to learn pickpocketing, or removing wristwatches, etc..here is a book on that.
Not sys admin, but security, The_Art_of_Deception.
A great read.
I picked it up cheap at Ollies and have read it front to back. That is amazing for me seeing I don't really read unless forced.
http://www.amazon.com/Art-Deception-Controlling-Element-Security/dp/076454280X
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Art_of_Deception
Kind of like how your "take my word for it" isn't really proof enough for your claims.
There's a book by Kevin Mitnick, though, that well documents the art of social engineering in regards to this topic. https://www.amazon.com/Art-Deception-Controlling-Element-Security/dp/076454280X
If you can't take my word, definitely take his. He went to prison for it.
Any book that focuses on something else than a specific programming language.
Examples:
Upvoted for mentioning The Art of Deception! That is one of my favorite (technical-ish) books of all time. Another great book by that author is The Art of Intrusion.
If you want to keep attackers out of your organization, you need to learn how they operate. These books provide an intersting insight, as well as having some really interesting stories.
Mitnick's books are indeed mostly anecdotal, but The Art of Deception spends quite some time to explain WHY the attack worked and how it could have been mitigated. If you are to read one of Mitnick's books, this is definitely the one closer to what you want to do
As /u/demonbrew suggested, Cialdini's Influence is an iconic book on how you can use psychology to manipulate others. There are other schools, and you can read more about it in this thesis (as you can see Social Engineering was really popular at my university). My focus was Cialdini's work, my colleagues focused on comparing different psychological frameworks used in Social Engineering.
Carnegie's book is indeed focused in socializing, but the TL;DR of the book is: "How do i make people like me?". If you combine this, with one of the Cialdini principles - "Liking" - you can see how it can help you improve your Social Engineering skills
>Which reforms?
This one, essentially expanding capital of IMF and increase quote of emerging markets, including China, to align more closely to current GDP shares rather current US and European centric quotas. Similarly WTO Doha round has being stuck for so long, that people have forgotten that it even exists.
> Even when China is found to be in violation of said rules, no sanctions follow.
Not so, all WTO decision carry penalties against companies and industries. The most famous one recently is 78% tariff levied on Chinese solar panels. You can read details here
>Who was hoping for this?
Plenty of people in 90s and into the early 2000s, the idea that the "freer", wealthier and more capitalistic Southern and Coastal China will break away from it conservative, poor and conservative North unless China transition into a democracy and adopt a federal-state government. And it is the most frequent western view I have encountered when I was in China though underground pamphlets and article distributed by pro-democracy activists as well as in Chinese language Voice of America broadcasts. I not sure how widespread this view is actually in the western think tanks at the time, but it is accurately described in senario #3 in this article. However, by the time I really get into this . Hence the use of "in the past" in my previous post. The most recent use this view I know of is Stratfor's George Friedman in his book, The Next 100 Years. While such an event will certainly cause instability around the world, it will however, take care of The Chinese Question once and for all.
>Nixon's opening of China was the first step, and as the US pushed for greater economic liberalization and opened its markets to China, China grew exponentially.
Perhaps you should read Chinese, American history more carefully before entering into this discussion. (Harry Harding's China's Second Revolution and A Fragile Relationship are excelent starts depsite it's age) Not sure where you get this idea from, at the time with US foreign policy under Kissinger and Brzezinski, US-China relationship centered primarily on security and the American establishment was actually surprised at the Rapid demise of Chairman Hua, the scale of Chinese economic reform and the rise of Deng.
>non-existent labour laws
Oh, they exist even in the 1990s see here and here. They are quite generous too, for example 98 days of mandatory Maternity leave, retirement at 60 for males and 50 for females, and no fault termination (layoffs) must carry severance payment of at least 3 month of salary etc. However, not well followed outside of SOEs with foreign contractors often being the biggest violators due to price pressure. If you want to be educated about this issue, read this
>Could you explain this, please?
Well, next year we'll have either Trump, Hillary or Bernie as president. And their all take a much more hawkish stance towards China (in addition to many other things, this election cycle is truly wild). The same year, all member of the Chinese Politburo except Xi and Li will retire, and leadership transition will finally complete. If Hu-Wen to Xi-Li transition is any indication; China will shift more hawkish as well.
Well, this took me two hours to write, and I have a day job. So I guess I'll end it here.
It's been out since 2010. It's like a American nationalist sci-fi novel lol.
https://www.amazon.com/Next-100-Years-Forecast-Century/dp/0767923057
Sure, although it really depends on which geopolitical facets you enjoy the most.
Zbigniew Brzezinski's The Grand Chessboard. Heavily influences US foreign policy. http://www.amazon.com/Grand-Chessboard-American-Geostrategic-Imperatives/dp/0465027261/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1462464442&amp;sr=1-1&amp;keywords=zbigniew+brzezinski
George Friedman's The Next 100 Years. This is the guy that started Stratfor and this book is a large part of why they started getting so much attention. I really like Friedman but I do find his actual prose can be pretty droll. http://www.amazon.com/Next-100-Years-Forecast-Century/dp/0767923057/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1462464571&amp;sr=1-3&amp;keywords=george+friedman
Charles Lister's The Syrian Jihad. Good read. http://www.amazon.com/Syrian-Jihad-Al-Qaeda-Evolution-Insurgency/dp/0190462477?ie=UTF8&amp;keywords=charles%20lister&amp;qid=1462464907&amp;ref_=sr_1_1&amp;s=books&amp;sr=1-1
Any of Kissinger's books would probably be worth reading. Even if you don't like the guy, he's not dumb by any stretch, and he's still pretty influential.
If I think of more I'll post 'em.
Lots. In fact, nearly every book I have ever read has changed my worldview in one way or the other, some more than others. But, the most recent books to change my outlook on the world are:
The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for The 21st Century by George Friedman
Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism by Naomi Klein.
Demon-Haunted World: Science As A Candle In The Dark by Carl Sagan
Check out a book called “Thinking fast and slow” by Daniel Kahneman. It goes into this type of stuff, and how we have two types of systems in our brain that do what you’re describing.
https://www.amazon.com/dp/0374533555/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_i_adGTCb56Y9JY2
Summary: https://fourminutebooks.com/thinking-fast-and-slow-summary/
> For me, RP is like economics. It's a model of human behavior that is built on predictions and patterns.
> TRPers are like economists. There are many "schools" that are built around RP, some of which are more closely aligned with the model (from my perspective) and some of which are not. And just because someone says they are an economist does make them an expert in economics.
> Trying to understand RP just from reading what various TRPers write is as ridiculous as trying to understand economics from what various self-proclaimed economists write.
Actually, I'm mostly referring to the sidebar when I discuss TRP concepts. And comparing TRP to economics is a great example.
Remember why the financial crisis happened in 2008? That's right - flawed ideas of economics. There's tons of literature on how applied neoclassical economics quickly can become a self-fulfilling prophecy which apparently produces results in the short term, but in the long term spells doom.
Same thing applies to TRP. Compare the average TRPer to an investor during the pre-crisis area. The investor buys MBS-funds which seem to pay off infinitely. So he puts more and more money into it, after a while he has invested everything he owns. Sometimes people warn him that his assets are based on mortages that will immediately default, and thus are worthless in the long run. But he points at his current net worth: Can't people see that this is working? Suddenly the entire market crashes do to the innate rotten nature of his MBS funds, and he is left with no assets and a whole lot of debt.
Same thing for the TRP guy. Spends years acting in line with TRP philosophy. It ostensibly works at first, but people are telling him that his behavior will not allow him to reach his goals in the long term. He ignores them and continues his TRP lifestyle. 5 years down the line the woman of his dreams leaves him. She's tired of him dissmissing her and walking away at the slightest hint of anger from her ("Holding frame"), she's tired of him not taking her seriously ("Amused mastery") and she has grown aware of how fragile and insecure his ego is as he seems to interpret anything she says as an insult ("Passing shit tests"). Now the man is fucked.
> Ugh. I hate the direct comparison to PUA. I know little about PUA as a whole (though some of their actions do seem to line up with what I would recommend), but I know I'm not the only RPer who bemoans RP turning into something like "PUA 2.0". RP, to my mind, is not just a new form of PUA. It goes way beyond what I understand of PUA, which really seems to only focus on short-term hookups.
Every single TRP idea existed in the PUA community. The most famous part of the community (popularly seen in "The Game" By Neil Strauss) involved tips and tricks for short-term hookups. The "Inner game" part of the community is pretty much identical to TRP. Just look at videos from RSD (Real Social Dynamics) and you'll find pretty much every TRP concept there.
> Again, you are focusing on the doing and not on the being (which isn't surprising, given that many TRPers make the same mistake). It's back to the old "fake it until you make it" idea. If you know who you need to be (like, say, confident), it can be useful to emulate that quality until you actually express it naturally, but to assume that the faking it is the making it is completely off-base.
I disagree. This is a flawed way of thinking. You cannot emulate confidence until it appears. Confidence is a feeling that makes you act and feel a certain way. We know from psychology that confidence is the result of your experiences within a given field and your interpretation of that. The only thing you accomplish by acting confident is that you get better at... acting like a confident person. Most people see through that easily.
> The end goal of RP is not to "do alpha", it's to "be alpha." If you are being alpha, all the rest of the shit will fall into place.
I understand the differences her between being and doing. But if you are actively (as is promoted in the sidebar) doing "Alpha male stuff" like "Holding frame" or "Amused mastery", then you are actually just teaching yourself a set behavior. You are not actually being authentic and acting in line with your own values - which would be what the idealized "Alpha male" would do.
> I can always tell that someone just attended a class or training by the fact that their actions are so out of alignment with their being.
And this is exactly what I'm talking about! Would that leader "Be" a leader by faking it until he made it?
> My understanding of the "hypergamy" dynamic and how men and women express and feel love differently comes from years of both reading various experts and studies on the subject of human sexuality and from my countless conversations (and relationships) with other people from all walks of life, so it's hard for me to reference something off-hand. I would say that the work of David Buss goes a long way towards validating the idea of hypergamy/polygyny as base sexual drives in humans, so I would check him out for that. Not included in this discussion, but I found that Esther Parel advocates a view of sexuality that confirms the idea of AF/BB, so that's another non-RP source.
I'm familiar with David Buss and evolutionary psychology. And yes, it describes why the impulses men and women have when it comes to sex have evolved. Women have evolved to be more selective because they risk pregnancy, while for men no such mechanism has been adaptive. However, men are also strongly attracted to visual cues of genetic fitness, just like women. There is nothing gender specific about the idea of "Hypergamy" if it is merely defined as the desire for an attractive partner.
> Why is that so hard to believe?
There are plenty of reasons for this in an evo psych perspective. The most important one being that the high SMV man has other opportunities. Unless the woman is equally high in SMV, there's no way for her to know that he won't just pump and dump her, then leave her for a prettier woman. Then she's stuck with a baby and no man to protect her. Bad idea.
But in terms of real life applications, I was referring to the "Branch jumping" idea. Let's say you have a girlfriend. She meets a guy who has a better job than you, is more confident, looks better than you - he is a higher SMV male.
Does she immediately leave you if he hits on her? According to the idea of branch jumping : Yes.
> What people ideally want and what people can realistically get are two totally different animals.
Of course. I mean, If everyone got what they wanted, I'd be a space cowboy. But I'm not, and I'm still quite happy with my career. And just like I'm happy with my career, a woman can be happy with her man even though he's not the perfect man. And a man can be the same.
> Most of life requires trade-offs that result from a cost benefit analysis.
Are you applying classical economical assumptions to human behavior? Because it seems you're talking of humans as rational actors. I recommend this book by Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Prize winner in economics, which describes why humans do not fall in line with the assumption of the classical "Economic man".
> And it's interesting that you perceive polygamy as the result of patriarchal societies. I would maybe conjecture that you think that, conversely, monogamy is not a result of patriarchal societies? If so, there are many anthropologists who would disagree with you. They see enforced monogamy as something instituted by men for men and not for the benefit of women.
The old-fashioned form of monogamy is patriarchal because women had to marry. They couldn't work or go to school. Modern monogamy is not a patriarchal construct. And since we've already covered evolutionary psychology, it's worth mentioning that humans have an evolved pair-bonding mechanism which includes emotions aimed at keeping the relationship exclusive (Jealousy).
> The assertion that "women wouldn't want to share" presumes a modern setting for mating, which would be a mistake. I guarantee you that, at a time when resources were scarce and survival was a daily question, the concern over "sharing" becomes far less important than the concern over "how do I ensure the survival of my child and myself? How will I ensure that sufficient resources are available for accomplishing that?"
We agree here. If nuclear war ravaged the world tomorrow this would definately be the case.
> Additionally, it must be noted that the whole notion of humans being naturally monogamous, especially for life, doesn't really hold up in either an academic or a real world sense. Clearly, monogamy, especially life-long monogamy, is not the natural order of things for humans (otherwise, we wouldn't have all the conversations about n-counts and cheating and divorce and...). Humans have found that lifetime monogamy can work well for both parties in certain settings, but that does not mean that's what we are wired to do.
We have a drive for pair bonding, that's about it. It doesn't really make sense to talk about a "Natural order of things" with humans, the entire success of our species is contingent on us being adaptive. For a lot of people. life long monogamy will work. For a lot of people, it won't. The reasons why and why not are unique to each case and infinitely complex.
> I could write a book on this. Many authors already have. I don't have time now, but maybe we can get into it at some point. In the meantime, this is probably one of the most explored topics in human sexuality.
Sure, I'm interested.
That is what I'm thinking. The minute the board learns that an AI can run the company for $100,000 a year rather than a CEO at $21 million, the CEO will be irrelevant.
As it is, CEO are irrelevant in most cases. There is a whole chapter here about how useless they are: https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555
Kahneam basically says that flipping a coin yields as good of results as a CEO's choices.
This link allows one to preview a bit of that book:
http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555
I did notice that his Nobel prize was in economics, not psychology...
[edit to add] I've just skimmed the first few pages of the book. The exercise of looking at the photo on the first page of the first chapter is interesting, but the conclusions which the author then tells the reader that they "knew" and "sensed", are both closed assumptions rather than open questions, & are more a reflection of his responses to the photo, than any receptive mindset to the many conclusions that various readers might draw.
The opposite of black and white thinking (I guess you mean reflexive decision-making) isn't indecision, it's informed and reflective decision.
This resource might help you: http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555
I completely agree. There are two topics the whole:
>The most important part is not a conviction but staying alive.
thing reminds me of.
1 - Daniel Khaneman in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow discusses the differences between the experiencing self and the remembering self. Briefly, the way we experience an event is very (very) disconnected from the way we remember and event.
Prioritizing survival of rape suggests that the memory of rape is less painful than the experience of rape itself. Arguments to the contrary get into territory of suicide, which is just as hard to discuss as the topic of rape.
2 - Atul Gawande in his book Being Mortal talks a lot about people diagnosed with terminal illness. For some, the focus of their lives becomes less about survival and more about controlling the narrative of their story, and how they're remembered.
At the point of diagnosis, many people will opt for painful chemo/radiation even for an extremely slim chance of a few extra years/months. Others disregard treatment and focus on controlling the parts of their lives they value the most - friends, family, unfinished projects. The latter group understands they're possibly shortening their lives, but choose to do so in order to retain control of their life story.
>We can say -I'd do this or I'd do that, but we don't know.
You're 100% right. I have no real idea what I'd actually do in the situations this thread talks about. I know what I hope I'd do.
>Let's hope none of us ever find out!!
I concur!
Thinking, Fast and Slow
I say we must choose because that's what our brain is going to do anyways. Our brain, with it's fast, automatic, gut reactions always takes a stance. We can intellectually say that we don't have a high enough certainty of knowledge to form a belief, but on a lower level we've already taken a stance.^1
Now that doesn't mean we need to be closed minded to the alternative or pretend that we have knowledge we don't. A belief is what we think is true based on the knowledge we have, so our beliefs can change just as quickly as we get new knowledge or perspectives.
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^1 This is taken from reading Thinking Fast and Slow, a fantastic book on how our brain works and how the shortcuts our brain takes can lead to things like optical illusions, biases, and cognitive illusions. Highly recommend.
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Consider this: Would you be surprised to find out that God exists? We are surprised when reality doesn't match our expectations. If we expect to never find out that God exists, that indicates that we already believe that He doesn't.
Knowing the trick is definitely a big step forward but I wonder if it is all that easy.
Our mind is much easier to fool than we imagine.
I recommend reading Thinking Fast and Slow (wiki). It is a slow read but highlights how easily our judgements can lead us astray.
Seems like a lot of effort to show something that should be completely obvious to anyone with half a brain...
>Wikipedia cites this famous logical illusion as the best illustration of what cognitive scientists call "The Conjunction Fallacy."
> Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.
> Which is more probable?
> Linda is a bank teller.
> Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
This is from Thinking, Fast and Slow
The Now Habit
The Power of Habit
Thinking fast, thinking slow
Tao te Ching
I've not read it yet, but I've heard that "Thinking, Fast and Slow" is a good one on that.
http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555
Gut feeling, intuition, rationality, biases, decision making and the mental processes behind them is a fascinating study and has served me well in my professional career and my private life. If interested in learning more , then look at this chapter "A Model of Heuristic Judgement" (PDF) ^((1)) by Daniel Kahnerman. He also wrote a very accessible, New York Times bestseller book "Thinking, Fast and Slow" ^((2)) (Amazon link)
Kahneman expands on "dual process theories" - namely, that we rely on both intuition and reason, where one process, intuition, is quick and the other, reason, is slow. There can be troubles at the speed of processing or when one system is wrong. When I was in the military my commander chastised my speed of decision making during a critical situation saying "Major, I need you to function, not compute!". Slow vs fast thinking.
Another interesting look at this topic is this article (PDF) ^((3)) who suggests that "people at least implicitly detect that their heuristic response conflicts with traditional normative considerations. I propose that this conflict sensitivity calls for the postulation of logical and probabilistic knowledge that is intuitive and that is activated automatically when people engage in a reasoning task."
^((1) Holyoak, K. J., & Morrison, R. G. (Eds.). (2005). The Cambridge handbook of thinking and reasoning. Cambridge University Press.)
^((2) Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. Macmillan.)
^((3) De Neys, W. (2012). Bias and conflict: A case for logical intuitions. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 7(1), 28-38)
No More Mr Nice Guy by Robert Glover. Also: Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
While I may agree with her conclusion – taking time with things is definitely healthy – her premise is flawed.
> One flight was around 65$ at that time. I simply felt the urge to procrastinate with that task, so I chose to wait. [...] Some weeks later, I remembered I should buy those tickets after all. So I went online and found that the prices were close to 30$ per flight. I felt a very strong urge to buy them and I did.
Confirmation bias all the way. If you do this over and over, statistically, you will lose money. No way around it. I'm betting she's lost money herself this way, but that's not what she subjectively remembers.
> Because if the timing is wrong, then all efforts are in vain. He gives the example with agriculture: if you plant the seeds in winter, then you will get absolutely no crop, even though you may do the most amazing job at planting them.
This is not intuition. This is logic. You're quite stupid if you plant seeds in the winter, because it doesn't work. However, taking time with decisions, "sleeping on it", lets your intuition get a stab at things. That doesn't necessarily mean that now is never the right time, that you should always feel motivation when you work, or that just waiting will improve your results – as opposed to gaining more knowledge, for instance. Your intuition, or whatever we should call it, can work while you browse reddit, but only with what you already know. It definitely does not magically find cheap plane tickets or know when to plant seeds without looking outside.
Procrastinate all you want, and let your subconscious do the job for you. There's no reason to be voodoo about it, it actually works and it's well proven scientifically. But proper literature like Thinking Fast and Slow gives you a much better understanding of it.
Everyone thinks this. Everyone. That they are above being influenced by something as minor as free things. The problem is that everyone IS influenced by it, in subtle and hard-to-detect ways.
Thinking: Fast and Slow has a great section on this, particularly on why lobbying works so well even though individual politicians tend to think it has no effect on their decisions.
That reminds me, there's a similar video summary of the Brain Rules book over here: http://vimeo.com/10954540
(and more info here)
Totally forgot about that one. It's cool, but you can pretty much get the whole gist of it just from those links.
And if anybody's craving more psych-y books, Subliminal is also pretty cool (it's like the diet version of Thinking Fast and Slow, which is good but long), though, the Willpower Instinct one already kinda touches on a bit of material from both those anyway.
>you don't need to pretend that dreams are 100% scientifically understood
I never said that. I simply stated that there is no evidence that dreams are anything other than brain activity. In fact, there is a great deal of evidence to suggest that it is only brain activity, and doesn't come from any outside force at all.
>a "drunkard walk" is not sufficient for any scientist
Drunkard's Walk is a term used to express a type of statistical theory. It's fine if you didn't know that.
>I do not discount the possibility that there are non-corporeal entities that are undetectable through current scientific means or organic sensation, which can somehow affect our perceptions or otherwise interact with our unconscious brain.
I discount it because there is no evidence to support it. You may as well believe there is a teapot halfway between here and Mars, or a flying spaghetti monster for that matter.
I believe in evidence. I will follow where that evidence leads. The evidence that dreams are some sort of cosmic vision and not just the brain playing out scenarios is incredibly lacking.
You seem to think I'm arrogant for dismissing your idea in favor of one with greater evidence in it's favor. Try to see it from my perspective; you are claiming that you are party to some secret or greater knowledge of a paranormal or supernatural world, and have at best anecdotal evidence to back up your claim. I on the other hand can go to any campus book store and pick up at least one book about neuroscience that is infinitely more verifiable than any of your anecdotal evidence. Can you really blame me for laughing at your idea?
The Drunkard's Walk is a great one. Granted you have to enjoy statistics and discussions on probability and randomness.
Good read right here.
It doesn't fulfill the title but it's still interesting basic statistics.
This is mostly what I wanted to explore after reading about him in The Drunkard's Walk. I'm very interested in other cases like his. It fascinates me.
Koja je šansa da upravo čitam The Drunkard's Walk?
Isto tako molio bih izračun koja je šansa da sam upravo jutros pročitao poglavlje koje završava ovako:
> So in this case the chances that a positive test meant I was infected...
A sljedeće počinje ovako:
> Baye's theory shows that a probability...
> The law of large numbers has literally no implications here.
Then you don't understand it, because it has everything to do with gambling. It's even right there in the Wikipedia article on the Law of Large Numbers:
> For example, while a casino may lose money in a single spin of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage over a large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will eventually be overcome by the parameters of the game.
So obviously each spin is independent of the last spin's result, however, when you average out the results (which does include past results, that's where your mistake is), you get a percentage carefully calculated to give a house edge.
Now, what this statistics relies on is that all the money is being gambled with. So this winner, if he's clever, can bank most of the money and only gamble with a small subset of it or, even better, quit entirely.
That's why it makes sense for the casino to be giving him free stuff. The more of it he gambles with, the more likely the casino is to win it back.
If you're still not understanding, I recommend you pick up a book on statistics. It's not very intuitive stuff. The Drunkard's Walk is a nice non-technical book that explores just how bad human brains are at dealing with probabilities; it's one of my favourites.
While not specifically about atheism, I think The Drunkard's Walk is a good read that most atheists would appreciate.
It is not truly random. http://www.amazon.com/The-Drunkards-Walk-Randomness-Rules/dp/0375424040 this book will explain everything you ever wanted to know about random!
If you find people's reactions to the Monty Hall problem fascinating, you should check out The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives.
I'm in the process of reading it now, and the author mentions this very encounter between vos Savant and the PhDs.
It's a fun, freakonomics-type read with some good anecdotes.
Have you read this book??
I am reading it at the moment, and it is a fantastic read, with a lot of great real life examples. Someone such as yourself is probably at, or above, this level, but I recommend it for others who are interested in the topic!
What did you think of the book The Drunkard's Walk?
Maybe he could dig The Drunkard's Walk.
Other books that I found really useful, informative, motivating and accessible in high school include Feynman's QED -- a really cool introduction to Quantum Electrodynamics that I read my senior year -- and Brian Greene's The Elegant Universe. I think somebody mentioned it already.
Mathematics, the Loss of Certainty is a really good discussion on the history of math. Also quite accessible. I read it my freshman year of college.
More tangential books that I've enjoyed include The Drunkard's Walk and Chances Are. They cover similar ground, though, and I like the latter better.
There's also some pretty good fiction that gives you the flavor of some of the mindbending concepts that can arise from physics. Robert Heinlein's Time for the Stars is a good "juvenile" book that takes a step into the Twin's Paradox. Time dilation pops up in Larry Niven's A World Out of Time as well. For solar system level astrophysics, Niven's The Integral Trees postulates a really cool alternative to planets.
I read most the fiction around the time I was in high school, with the exception of Time for the Stars. Ironically, it's the only one that I can guarantee doesn't have "adult themes." I don't know what sort of restraints your parents put on your reading, though. They're all good books.
The other thing, other than books I mean, you can do is find a mentor or club in your area that could help put you on your way. An astronomy club would be a good idea, but there may also be physics or chemistry styled mentors in your area. They're likely to act out of a local university or research center (I live in Huntsville, Alabama, where Marshall Spaceflight Center is located. I know they have outreach/mentoring programs).
Oh, and I know I'm going on, one last thing that I found really useful and fun was my involvement in summer programs. In my case, the big one was Mississippi Governor's School, a three week summer program. It was an awakening from a social standpoint. (Ten years later, a large proportion of my friends either attended it or I know via some connection to it, still.) And it had an astrophysics class, which was awesome. I know other states have programs like it (assuming you're in the US), and MGS at least is easier to get into than commonly believed. People think a counselor's recommendation is required, but it's not and you get two opportunities to attend, between sophmore and junior and junior and senior years. It's unlikely you're in MS, of course, but other places have similar programs.
Good luck with things and keep us posted. :)
Sort of a tough question since it depends tremendously on the type of work you're doing, the audience you're targeting, their purchase and research patterns, etc. Have you developed any kind of a business plan to help define those variables?
The Business Model Generation handbook (https://www.amazon.com/Business-Model-Generation-Visionaries-Challengers/dp/0470876417) is a solid reference for laying out a framework to help answer those questions and start narrowing down toward a GTM strategy. I've used it working with a number of startups and still reference it in a lot of my work with Fortune 500 companies.
Upwork is a great place to start to sell your CAD skills as a freelancer, either to get cash flow to support your future plans or to be your primary source of income.
As far as resources goes on the how to start something. I found "The Startup Owner's Manual" (https://www.amazon.com/Startup-Step-Step-Building-Company/dp/0984999302/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1518503563&amp;sr=8-2&amp;keywords=startup+handbook) and "Business Model Generation" (https://www.amazon.com/Business-Model-Generation-Visionaries-Challengers/dp/0470876417) both have very boring titles, but great content and guided both myself and my co-founder down the road of finding our business idea and launching it. We are now a $5M a year business.
I got a lot from Business Model Generation.
Business Model Generation
Hi Jawilson2, here's a few books I've read in the past that helped prime me. I guess at the minimum these books helped me understand who was a bullshitter and who wasn't when they claimed they "knew the business side."
Raising Venture Capital for the Serious Entrepreneur - Fund raising basics. Key if you ever plan to raise money. You'd be stupid to try without reading this first.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0071496025/
Business Model Generation - This book helps you think through the business model issues most "hacker" type entrepreneurs skip. Makes you think more holistically.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0470876417/
The Entrepreneur's Guide to Business Law - Basics about legal issues you should be aware exist. I haven't read through it all at once, but it's a good guide when I run up against areas I'm murky on.
http://www.amazon.com/The-Entrepreneurs-Guide-Business-Law/dp/0324204930/
Business Model Generation is a great start https://www.amazon.ca/Business-Model-Generation-Visionaries-Challengers/dp/0470876417
Also, the Lean Startup also great https://www.amazon.ca/Lean-Startup-Entrepreneurs-Continuous-Innovation/dp/0307887898
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Kevin Mitnick's The Art of Deception
Di ko maia-upload lahat ng books kasi around 7gb sya. :( Though yeah may mga mega bundles ng IT books online gaya ng sabi nung isang reply.
Well anyway, if you're into those books, I recommend The Art of Deception by Mitnick and Simon (si Steve Wozniak nag-foreword sa book na 'to haha) tsaka The Art of Exploitation. Di ko tanda kung meron ako nung books pero afaik may mga online pdf copies naman. Happy reading! :D
The Art of Deception is nominally about protecting you and your company, but it also gives you an idea of his social engineering. Again, it's focused on modern day cons, but I do enjoy reading about all sorts of cons, fictional and nonfictional.
https://www.amazon.com/Art-Deception-Controlling-Element-Security/dp/076454280X
I recommend the books "The Art of Intrusion" and "The Art of Deception" by Kevin Mitnik. One of the most famous hackers in history (the movie Hackers was inspired by him and Hackers 2: Takedown is a moderately historical adaptation of his escapades). The books gives a breakdown of what he did and what hacking is really like (in the 80s and 90s, at least). In short, its more research, reading, trial and error, and social engineering than actual typing.
Intelligence – Analysis – Insight
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> The Art of Deception: Controlling the Human Element of Security (2003), Kevin Mitnick https://www.amazon.com/Art-Deception-Controlling-Element-Security/dp/076454280X/
> Red Teaming: How Your Business Can Conquer the Competition by Challenging Everything (2017), Bryce Hoffman https://www.amazon.com/Red-Teaming-Competition-Challenging-Everything/dp/1101905972/
> Shortcut: How Analogies Reveal Connections, Spark Innovation, and Sell Our Greatest Ideas (2015), John Pollack https://www.amazon.com/Shortcut-Analogies-Connections-Innovation-Greatest/dp/1592409474/
> Red Team: How to Succeed by Thinking Like the Enemy (2015), Micah Zenko https://www.amazon.com/Red-Team-Succeed-Thinking-Enemy/dp/0465048943/
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Here are some other news items:^credits ^to ^u-sr33
> NIST Wants To Know How Utility Companies Can Deter Hackers
> Vitaly Churkin, Russian Ambassador To U.N., Is Dead At 64
> Russia's ambassador to U.N. dies suddenly after falling ill in New York City
> Current national defense models don’t work in cyberspace
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Don't limit oneself to one's own imagination
https://www.amazon.ca/Art-Deception-Controlling-Element-Security/dp/076454280X
If you're interested, I would recommend reading The Art of Deception. It's written by Kevin Mitnick, who actually spent time in prison for hacking and today runs a security firm that gets paid to probe systems and find their weaknesses. The aspects of hacking are often more social than you might realize.
Kevin Mitnick
http://www.amazon.com/The-Art-Deception-Controlling-Security/dp/076454280X
and no this isnt social engineering, this dinner/party/bar scenario i wouldnt be trying to get you to give me your social security #
http://www.amazon.com/books/dp/076454280X
I read this book when i was a teenager. He did really good at predicting what was going to happen. I still like to look back at what i read and see how well he did. http://www.amazon.com/The-Next-100-Years-Forecast/dp/0767923057
Отлучная статья от ребят которые предсказывали какой-то конфликт на одной из границ Украины еше пару лет назад, почитайте. http://www.amazon.com/The-Next-100-Years-Forecast/dp/0767923057
Чуствую к завтра эту статью переведет Petr i Mazepa.
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Very good article from people who predicted some kind of conflict within Ukraine borders couple of years ago. Their book is worth a read. http://www.amazon.com/The-Next-100-Years-Forecast/dp/0767923057
Have a feeling petrimazepa.com will translate it into Russian by tomorrow.
Yes. That also gets into the more specific issue of America's hegemony over the seas, partly thanks to her pan-continental existence.
A few books that really discuss all these things:
https://www.amazon.ca/Prisoners-Geography-Explain-Everything-About/dp/1501121464
https://www.amazon.ca/Next-100-Years-Forecast-Century/dp/0767923057
oh im not saying its still even remotely possible, these are long term strategic plans hence stratfor most of these were concerns prior to the first gulf war when the meddling started. the last 10-20 years have been the actions they have taken to avoid that possibility
source wise (the next 100 years by George Friedman aka one of the main guys at stratfor) http://www.amazon.ca/The-Next-100-Years-Forecast/dp/0767923057
and a pdf version if you care http://www.mysearch.org.uk/website1/pdf/715.2.pdf
the major foreign policy there has been to sew discord and keep them fighting each other so they won't work together. the US makes a lot of money off all the arms they have flooded the region with.
Israel backs the plan because it prevents them from ganging up and chasing out the zionists
I'll give you two book tips:
I don't know if you can order these books. Both are available as EPUB as well if you use a normal e-reader or laptop.
Amazon have the same issue you do, so I would have a look at how they deal with it. (I've done it for you :)) They are absolutely killing it in the eCommerce SEO world so their word should be considered gospel.
So how do Amazon solve this issue? Well, they create almost completely different pages. Take a look at this hardcover version versus the kindle version. It's the same book with the same reviews etc, but the pages are very different.
In addition to the original content, they've also placed a rel=canonical tag to the main landing page, to clarify the structure of the website to Google. (To check the canonical tag, check out the Open SEO stats chrome extension, or just view the source code)
This is the ideal scenario. If you dont have the resources or time to provide this kind of originality, try and find the sweet spot between originality and your resources.
https://www.amazon.com/Never-Split-Difference-Negotiating-Depended/dp/0062407805
Everything is negotiable. Always. It's just a matter of knowing how to do it right. Which is the tricky part of course!
If it were me in your shoes:
I wouldn't accept a pay cut.
I'd try really hard to not get re-evaluated.
I'd ask for, but wouldn't be very disappointed if it can't happen: some paid time to move, and some relocation expenses.
Good luck!
p.s. For some negotiating tips, this book wasn't too bad imo: https://www.amazon.ca/Never-Split-Difference-Negotiating-Depended/dp/0062407805
If tough negotiation and social combat is a common feature of your campaign, I'd recommend reading Never Split the Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It, you'll really learn to make your PC's work for their victories in social combat.
This might be the sort of thing your doctor meant.
http://www.amazon.com/The-No-Cry-Sleep-Solution-Through/dp/0071381392
Check out this book, it is kind of interesting even if you don't have a baby. Basically the baby gradually learns he or she is safe, even lying in bed, and doesn't get too overwhelmed.
Me and my wife are using this book to transition our co-sleeper to his crib:
No Cry Sleep Solution
This method is much nicer to your child. It's all about setting expectations by giving them positive sleep associations and forming a solid routine. The book has some specific tips for parents of twins also. I'm a big fan of attachment parenting and this books goes along very well with my philosophy of parenting. It gives lots of good actionable advice for lots of circumstances and attitudes.
I would highly recommend you try this before trying CIO. I see some people here saying that the CIO method worked after 2 days for them, that's great but isn't how it always works. Some children take a lot longer than that on CIO, and if you have twins I'm sure your problems and time till sanity is double.
It's a book! The newborn one I mentioned is for younger babies, didn't see that your LO was almost 6 months, but she wrote one for older babies too! The No-Cry Sleep Solution: Gentle Ways to Help Your Baby Sleep Through the Night https://www.amazon.com/dp/0071381392/ref=cm_sw_r_other_apa_hPE-ybQ6W280M
My top three picks would be the No Cry Sleep Solution, The Womanly Art of Breastfeeding and the Happiest Baby on the Block (I've seen the DVD, didn't read the book).
I also highly recommend the blog Parenting Science. I teach child development, and what the author writes is backed by recent research (citations included) so it isn't just one random person's thoughts but essentially a literature review of what to do for the best outcomes when it comes to infant sleep and behaviour. Oh, and definitely KellyMom if you're breastfeeding. :)
Unfortunately it's a little late for some of the S's and probably not ready to cry it out.
Might want to check this one out:
The No-Cry Sleep Solution: Gentle Ways to Help Your Baby Sleep Through the Night https://www.amazon.com/dp/0071381392/ref=cm_sw_r_awd_B0Lavb0673REP
Here is some different advice:
Step 1: get excited. Sounds like you have that part under control. :-)
Step 2:
Don’t worry about a once a day weed habit. My wife smokes, and our kids have turned out amazing. I totally get the desire to be your best. But if weed does it for you, then do it. I believe it helps her be a better mom.
She only ever does it after the kids go to sleep. Or i’ll watch the kids for awhile so she can restore.
Step 3:
Getting the baby, you and your wife regular (all thru the night) sleep is so critical. Our pediatrician was so great and coached us to have all our kids sleeping through the night by 2 months old. It makes a massive difference in your wife’s sanity levels. You’ll be a safer, more engaged parent if you have sleep.
Here is a book I found on Amazon. Pick a winner and take control of this for your family. It’s an amazing gift to your team if you can make this happen.
The No-Cry Sleep Solution: Gentle Ways to Help Your Baby Sleep Through the Night https://www.amazon.com/dp/0071381392/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_i_7dwdBbKNKE0D3
After flirting with nihilism and existentialism for a long time I, personally, came to the conclusion that the notion that all of this is here without any sort of explanation or without any direction or purpose runs directly against common human intuition. It seems to me to be a belief on par with properly basic beliefs such as the reality of the past, reality of the external world, etc. Perhaps it's a step up, and not quite that basic, but I digress.
Now, some (see Thomas Nagal's "Mind & Cosmos") argue for natural teleology, in which purpose is inherently embedded in the universe and does not need a transcendent mind such as God to give it purpose. Personally, I agree with a very hefty amount of Nagal's positions, but find his critique of the theistic explanation lacking.
For a theistic perspective on the issue, I highly recommend William Lane Craig's following article and podcast episode that addresses this.
The OP was articulate, intelligent and well-researched and in the comments well defended. Your position is also cautiously noncommittal and does, I think, stand up very well under the tribunal of impartial reason.
I do not expect you to agree with anything that follows but: Therein I think lies the explanation for the conduct of many, though of course not all, atheists in the comments.
In evaluating an argument with theistic implications many nonbelievers are going to feel the sudden force of massive paradigm pressures and often this will be proportionate to the quality of the argument; i.e., the better the argument, the more obstreperous and unreasonable some of them may become. Even more so if the poster is flaired agnostic and so, from their point of view, innocent of religious indoctrination.
I think this general point is terribly important and terribly under-represented in religious debate. Theism, as N. T. Wright puts it, is a "self-involving hypothesis." Faced with a potentially plausible argument for the existence of God (and remembering Socrates' policy that we must, "Follow the argument wherever it takes us") a man already greatly indisposed to the idea of God faces three choices:
>1. Follow the argument and possibly have to change his life. (He is indisposed to this.)
>
>2. Follow the argument and, worse case scenario, refuse to live according to his principles. (Most will be indisposed to this.)
>
>3. Defy Socrates and refuse to follow the argument.
It is easy to see why some nonbelievers may prefer to take a hint from the Sophists and ignore the deliverances of rational intuition in preference for a post hoc rationalisation of something they have already decided on nonrational grounds.
Thomas Nagel, for example, has famously said this. Admirably, he admits his bias and seeks to overcome it in giving an impartial account of the mind which, he says, is recalcitrantly nonphysical. In the book just linked he himself makes the same point I am making and offers it as an explanation for the monomaniacal, neurotic physicalism in the philosophy of mind and the dull refusal to look beyond the embattled physicalistic paradigm. (From pneumatophobia, Moreland has suggested, a man naturally takes refuge in hylomania.)
Apologies for the rant. :D
I'm a scientist and former atheist and thought the theory of evolution was simple unassailable overwhelming science. When I became a Christian I continued to have that belief, but curious about the young earth creationism (YEC) I took a couple short courses on YEC. Both were compete and utter garbage. Then I went on to study down into the science-based and philosophical-basis for intelligent design or rejection of neo Darwinism, in come cases written by atheists such as this one by Nagal. Without an aim to persuade you to accept my religious beliefs, it would be interesting to talk to you about the major problems there are with Neo Darwinism, many of which are now becoming recognized by evolutionary biologists. I don't conclude that Neo Darwinism is utterly false, but I'm convinced it is at least incomplete.
Cheers!
> Yes being incomprehensible by essence-energies is special pleading.
You're going to have to explain yourself here. Being incomprehensible is not an ability or a property, if anything its a reference our inabilities rather than anything about God at all. No idea how you get this idea of there being any sort of special pleading here.
> I asked if you buy this, you never did answer...
You've asked for evidence and all sorts of other things but I've only been trying to tell you what the Orthodox Christians teach.
> God of the gaps...
Stop following your script. I'm not saying God explains anything at all. Do we have the theory of everything? Have all questions in science have been answered as well as philosophy, we're all done here? Last I checked we're still searching for a theory of everything... You claim way more than you can support. You shouldn't be a naturalist if you acknowledge how little we actually know...
> Doesn't matter if you reject it, you are giving non-natural properties to a god. Special pleading again.
I've given no properties to God. From the beginning I noted that the Orthodox teach God's essence to be ineffable. The Orthodox do not believe we can ascribe anything to God's essence in any language or idea.
> Yep you did, and you did so in the paragraph above. Sorry, calling your point some other label doesn't change it from being such.
Show me a direct quote, prove your accusations. All I've been talking about is the essence-energies distinction.
> Nope, it is not about me, and immaterial to the discussion.
So you're full of it, got it. "What can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence" -Christopher Hitchens
> How quaint that you thing Ivy League gives any weight to an argument as well.
Straw man. I never said that at all. I'm not saying credentials makes me right, they're mere indications of the reliability of my sources. Anybody who knows about quality of education knows Ivy League universities are notorious for being the most selective, most endowed (better resources and more access to said resources, all that jazz), and having award winning faculty like Nobel Laureates etc. Come on now, let's stop pretending like Ivy League Universities are nothing when we know they're among the greatest academic institutions in the world.
> Who said bob's university is not accredited? And for somebody who claims to know, you really don't. You do understand there are differences on how different schools inside a university run and how different fields apply scholarship, do you not?
Who said Bob wasn't accredited? I was merely talking about differences between universities and they do matter as you even acknowledge with accreditation... Your mere reaction right here proves I was right all along and you actually agree with me. Certain universities are better to go to than others, its a fact. Some universities are crap and have shoddy professors and don't prepare you for the field etc. Now I'm not saying going to a university automatically makes another smarter or anything, but it's just a fact of life that the guy who has a Ph.D. from Harvard is going to look a little better than the guy who has a Ph.D. from Pheonix University alright. I mean come on dude, let's just be realistic here. Did you get your alleged doctorate from a not so great institution and that's why you're all weird about this topic?
> Except the fat that everything we do know does...
Uh no we don't, exactly why we don't have a theory of everything lol this paradigm clearly has its limits and its becoming more and more apparent. Hence you have guys like Thomas Nagel (Ph.D., Harvard) showing just where the weakness are in his work Mind and Cosmos: Why the Materialist Neo-Darwinian Conception of Nature is Almost Certainly False published on Oxford University Press in 2012.
> You can't ignore this and say because things are still unknown, that it is god. That argument has failed throughout history and is still invalid today. It is the god of the gaps argument again.
I'm not giving this argument at all. Gosh how many times do I have to tell you this? Stop with the script already and just listen for once.
> Except you have you claim to know he is real,
Nope never made that claim ever.
> you claim that you can know him if you believe in him
Never said this either.
> you claim to know how he thinks
Never said this as well.
> you claim a lot of knowledge about an unknowable being.
And I also didn't make this claim. You're just following your script again...
> If he were truly unknowable, everything you have said has to be false, as you don't know. Which is our point, you don't know.
You clearly didn't check out the links I provided earlier regarding the essence-energies distinction.
> There is something to know, but you would not be able to tell us, so what you say is nothing more than made up.
That's just plain ole invalid. Your conclusion doesn't follow here. If there was something I knew that couldn't be communicated it wouldn't imply that's made up. Please check out the material I gave on the essence-energies distinction.
>Things are made of behaviors that are made of behaviors
>
>Well this claim is disputable. One might simply reply that science only observes behaviors but has a blind spot on ontological reality. This was a criticism even Russel (and others) raised.
I don't mind making claims that are disputable, as long as they are reasonable. Do you accept that it is possible that there are only behaviors, and that such a description is coherent and useful, if possibly open to being wrong? I am quite pleased that you see that this behaviors-only view is informed by and compatible with science - that was my primary goal.
Yes science only observes behaviors, and it is able to say a great deal about the world with just that. While it is good to keep an eye out for these blind spots, I am still waiting for the god or platonic object of the gaps to rear its head and be relevant. Do you claim to know there is actually something in the blind spot worth caring about?
>It highlights the world in a very different way... which might not fit the narrow mechanistic vision we all try to fit everything now, but there is no reason to think such mechanistic view is true, in fact there are good reasons to think it's not correct. Thomas Nagel (not a religious guy at all) presents a good case in his book Mind and Cosmos 1
Thanks for that source. I have added it to my audible list, but I can tell from the title and and little poking around wikipedia that someone is about to argue for the mind to somehow be special and magical and mystical, as separate from the rest of the cosmos. I have heard the name Nagel thrown around too much to not read this.
>First I think it's pretty clear that the distinction between a table and a tree does exist, since tree grow, but tables are something that are necessarily imposed by humans on a tree.
A tree and a table are different whether that table was made by humans or by natural forces. You can make a table that grows, at least in theory, just as you can have a brain-in-a-vat thought experiment. You could also just grow a tree into a table. If your metaphysics is limited by what humans do, it will have a built-in lack of imagination.
To contradict your point, the difference between the table and tree is just one of arrangement and behavior. A car that is running because it has fuel and spark doesn't have a magical life essence or a quality of moving - its parts are just moving because they are arranged right. A broken car behaves different from working one, as its arrangement is different. I will say it again - Any unique arrangement of matter has unique causal powers. What you are doing is drawing special importance to some arrangements and behaviors over others. To me they are all just arrangements. The difference between living and dead, conscious or not, thermonuclear or not, reactive alkali or not, radioactive or not, these are all important things to notice, but they don't exist in different worlds or different sets of descriptions. They are all behaviors that result from behaviors. You can fill libraries with the very important differences and details here, but you cannot claim that properties or consciousness or qualia are metaphysically special. All that is results from the mechanistic behavior of things. My additional claim beyond garden-variety materialism is that you can eliminate the mech and just say behavior.
>The "field view" seems to reflect what we observe experimentally, but this does not mean necessarily it is ontologically true ... Right about 120 years ago scientists thought their physical view of the world was complete and done
It sounds to me like two completely different topics here. One is accuracy of a model to fit data, either existing data or new data coming out. I just asked you to not confuse the map and the terrain, and here you are doing it. We went from a model that fit the data well under a materialistic paradigm, to a better model that fit better data well still under a materialistic paradigm. What has changed is map, what has not changed is science's continued confidence that the terrain is mechanistic and can be described ever better by only doing better and better models with better and better data. At no point was materialism upended, and it is materialism we are talking about here, not any one scientific model.
What do you mean by ontologically true, anyway? It doesn't sound like it matters how accurate the latest model is to the latest observations of reality. Is a better map more ontologically true to the terrain? Or are you talking about some feature of reality that cannot be described by an infinitely precise model, because it really works by magic? If so, no level of precision or completeness of science will sway you.
I think essentialism is another attempt to add meaningless dualism with another name attached to it. I would check out this "Real Essentialism", but 50 bucks for a paperback is steep.
Unless you like dense but vague prose with no obvious application, I can't recommend this one, at least from the beginning in the free kindle sample: https://www.amazon.com/Mind-Cosmos-Materialist-Neo-Darwinian-Conception/dp/0199919755/ref=la_B000AQ6R56_1_1?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1520986930&amp;sr=1-1
But the first taste is free and YMMV. There are lots of blurbs from prestigious publications so go figure.
For the lazy
Keep in mind that the vast majority of the comments here are from staunch materialists who rely on the evidence of their 5 senses and seek to explain phenomena in terms of natural physical laws Atheism has nothing to say about consciousness but contrary to popular opinion there are many atheists who see consciousness as a property existing independent of what the 5 senses can describe and which must be accounted for in any theory of reality. A great and erudite book on this subject is Thomas Nagel's Mind and Cosmos.
>The physical sciences can describe organisms like ourselves as parts of the objective spatio-temporal order – our structure and behavior in space and time – but they cannot describe the subjective experiences of such organisms or how the world appears to their different particular points of view. There can be a purely physical description of the neurophysiological processes that give rise to an experience, and also of the physical behavior that is typically associated with it, but such a description, however complete, will leave out the subjective essence of the experience – how it is from the point of view of its subject — without which it would not be a conscious experience at all. Even though the theistic outlook, in some versions, is consistent with the available scientific evidence, I don’t believe it, and am drawn instead to a naturalistic, though non-materialist, alternative. Mind, I suspect, is not an inexplicable accident or a divine and anomalous gift but a basic aspect of nature that we will not understand until we transcend the built-in limits of contemporary scientific orthodoxy.
You want to challenge me?! That's fine, but I return a challenge with a challenge.
Gene Wolfe's, The Book of the New Sun, Part 1 and Part 2.
These will make you work as a reader. You'll have to reread passages, and you will not fully understand the story on one read through (I've done it 3 times so far). However, the payoff for reading these is HUGE. The man is an absolute master of his craft.
The Culture series, Book of the New Sun, Dune(FH's first 6), Ender's saga, The Forever War.
Gene Wolfe's Book of the New Sun
If you like this read: Gene Wolfe - Shadow & Claw
Book of the New Sun. Dense, awesome allegorical sci/fi-fantasy. Its my first read through and I'm already hooked.
Before that I read Pohl's Gateway and American Gods. Cannot recommend Gateway enough.
Hands down, The Book of the New Sun by Gene Wolfe. It's actually a series of four books (The Shadow of the Torturer, The Claw of the Conciliator, The Sword of the Lictor and The Citadel of the Autarch) following Severian the Torturer after he is banished from his guild for showing mercy to one of their "clients."
It's just...beautiful and complex and you'll discover something new and fascinating each time you read it. The tetralogy has been ranked on par with the works of Tolkein and has been recognized all the major sci-fi awards, and gained wider literary recognition as well. See the editorial reviews section on the linked Amazon pages:
>"Outstanding...A major work of twentieth-century American literature." --The New York Times Book Review
>"Wonderfully vivid and inventive...the most extraordinary hero in the history of the heroic epic." --Washington Post Book World
>"Brilliant...terrific...a fantasy so epic it beggars the mind. An extraordinary work of art!" --Philadelphia Inquirer
>About the Author: Gene Wolfe has been called "the finest writer the science fiction world has yet produced" by The Washington Post. A former engineer, he has written numerous books and won a variety of awards for his SF writing.
Anyway...yeah, I kind of like these books.
EDIT: A Canticle For Liebowitz by Walter M. Miller Jr. is great, too. It's kind of post post apocalyptic, and it examines the self destructive nature of humanity.
Forever Peace - Haldeman
Book of The New Sun/Book of the Long Sun - Wolfe (this is a very rewarding story, but it requires commitment)
Never Let Me Go - Ishiguro
The Sparrow - Russell
Please be aware that these are all fairly dark. Maybe I'm soft, but The Sparrow was one of the roughest books I've read, from a psychological perspective.
Just finished reading Stormdancer, which I loved - can't wait to grab the second one in the series when it comes out in September.
On my to-read list:
The Book of the New Sun, which /u/rarelyserious recommended I give a try, and MaddAddam.
Read the Book of the New Sun.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0312890176/ref=pd_lpo_sbs_dp_ss_1?pf_rd_p=1944687562&amp;pf_rd_s=lpo-top-stripe-1&amp;pf_rd_t=201&amp;pf_rd_i=0671540661&amp;pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&amp;pf_rd_r=1JY83WG1BDB71T8N2JH9
This is basically what you're talking about... I didn't know it was sci-fi until about a hundred pages in (though I'll admit I'm a history nerd and was kind of willfully ignoring sly sci-fi references to preserve a 16th-century setting).
If the author is any good at all you'll pick it up from context without having to think too much about it.
If you like that sort of thing, check out The Book of the New Sun by Gene Wolfe. He uses some really wonderful and obscure vocabulary to begin with, and is inventing an entirely new world at the same time. Half the time you're not sure if he made up a word or if you just don't know it yet.
Peopleware - Gives interesting insights into the "soft" side of software development
Maybe leave a copy of Peopleware: Productive Projects and Teams lying around prominently? It has a number of studies showing that a quiet, distraction-free workplace does pay off.
> What I'd give to just move my desk into a corner, or to face a wall, but I'm not sure that would go over well.
> My stuff is on a shelf, and there's no room to put anything on the desk.
The appropriate adage here is "It's easier to ask forgiveness than get permission". There's a clear business need for developers to not be distracted while working; reconfigure/move your area one evening&mdash;see if you can get someone else to do the same, there's strength in numbers&mdash;and see how it goes. (I take it you've already tried raising the issue through normal channels.) If asked, explain that you're easily distracted by conversations and people walking by (i.e., couch it as your weakness, not their lousy setup) and really need to make some process on the Frobnicator feature if it's to be done by next Tuesday.
If you need space for pictures or toys or other personalization, stack a couple boxes/crates on each other to extend your desk. Call it "startup chic". Maybe it'll shame them into giving you more space.
> but it often gets derailed because we have a fairly large team and everyone seems to feel the need to say something, even if it is only tangentially related to the topic of discussion.
Oh no. Any meeting with more than 5 people trying to have a dialogue is a terrible idea...
> It's funny you mention adding stories to the sprint for meeting attendance because that's exactly what we do. I don't even want to look at how many hours I've logged so far for this sprint. It's mind-boggling.
My god, it's worse than I thought! I was half joking when I said that...
> How would you justify refusing to attend these meetings?
Well, it kind of depends on a few things, like how much you like your manager, how good is your relationship with your 2nd line manager, how much do you care about the job, how much can you get away with, etc.
In your sprint retrospectives, have you considered making one of the "Stop" actions being "Stop spending so much time during sprints discussing issues that are more appropriate for sprint retrospectives?" or "Stop having so many meetings"? BTW, does your manager attend your retrospectives? I don't believe they're supposed to, but even if they do, it might be a good way for all of you to unite and express your feelings on the matter in a "safety in numbers" group environment.
Otherwise, it sounds like you've already tried the diplomatic approach of talking to your manager (I assume privately?) about the meetings, and expressing that you don't think they're a productive use of your time. If you're on good terms with your 2nd line manager, you might consider mentioning it to them. Or, I don't know what your work environment is like (small/big office?), but what would happen if you just didn't go to the meeting? Or, what would happen if you just got up and left when the discussion drifted into the sprint issues away from the agenda?
Also, not sure it'll help, but you might consider buying your manager a copy of Peopleware. Every dev manager should read this. Even developers should read it. Of course, then you'll be even more pissed about all the stuff your management is doing wrong...
Good for you, you're seeking out your knowledge and it sounds like you're dedicated to learning as well.
You won't get a good sense of what we do alone, especially because it is a very diverse field and can include specializations in storage, virtualization, databases, helpdesk, desktop support, mobile device management, security (which in itself has a number of specializations), operations, project management, monitoring and reporting, copper and fiber networking, firewall management, programming or developing... See my point? You can read a little more on the fields here
Anyway, if your computer is capable I would suggest you at least familiarize yourself with SOME of what we do, try and get Hyper-V running and learn some of the Powershell commands for interacting with the VMs, then use those VMs to run some *nix stuff and learn how to use those.
There is honestly a ton of free stuff, books, documentation and such available for you, you just have to know where to look and what you might want to see. The search bar here sucks but use the google advanced search for this subreddit and there is a ton of stuff to find, here's a few examples you may find useful:
... I've got literally dozens and dozens of relevant links that you might find useful. My suggestion is to start wide and shallow and figure out what you might interesting, then explore that further. If you want career advice I would suggest you focus on programming and *nix administration (there's a great comment on here in the last year with a path of things to accomplish) as these would give you the greatest variety of skills to create programs, apps, shell scripts, admin servers, etc... Also, don't neglect your soft skills or negotiation abilities as they are very valuable in helping you complete work when not working alone. Good negotiating skills will help ensure you don't get a $14/hr job when you're doing the work of a $70k
It sounds like you're trying to use technology to solve a problem that correct and useful documentation and processes would solve.
You don't want your team to have to re-invent the wheel every-time a patch is required.
Here is a useful book I would recommend.
Book
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/032194318X/ref=oh_aui_detailpage_o08_s00?ie=UTF8&amp;psc=1
You may want to check out this book http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374275637 excellent read about decision making and intuition and basically how we should not trust intuition in many cases... maybe intuition is not the right word for what you are looking for.
5; I don't think I comprehend it as well as my husband did.
Everyone is subject to cognitive biases - not just Confirmation Bias but all the others too.
The only defence is to be aware of them and try and spot them early. Unfortunately they are much easier to spot in other people that oneself, even for psychology researchers working in this field. I highly recommend reading Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman if you are interested in the subject. He has several stories in there about how he has been suckered by his own biases.
http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374275637
Today I was reading Thinking, Fast and Slow, a book about recent findings in cognitive science, at work during lunch break. I have a reputation as the quiet guy. A guy wearing a rosary asks me about it, and I explain that we have two thinking modes, intuitive and rational. He immediately cuts me off with "I think rational stuff gets in the way of spirituality." I ask if he's religious. He looks proud and says yes. I nod and ignore him for the rest of the break, reading my book. He was pretty put out for the rest of the day.
This video has some great brain teasers that were quite revealing and informative! The manner in which these two distinct brain systems interact and shape our worldly perceptions is quite astounding. It goes to show that reaction time and immediate judgement are mere results of our brain doing its job. I wonder how harnessing these two systems for good (i.e. putting more focus on System 2 when making logical decisions) could benefit us all. That book the video mentions is of particular interest...
No problem man, if you like stuff like this I'd recommend these books:
Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely
Thinking Fast And Slow by Daniel Kahneman
The Power of Habit by Charles Duhigg
The Paradox of Choice by Barry Schwartz
Behavior Economics is one of my favorite subject and these books are all enjoyable, informative on the subject and relatable. Def worth a read.
https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555
Decades of research psychology. Most fameously Taversky and Kahneman.
Also, if we were roughly rational we wouldn't need behavioral economics. And advertising wouldn't be effective.
A chi è interessato consiglio questo libro, se non sbaglio contiene anche il quesito proposto nell'articolo!
Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman is a fantastic book about the two systems of thinking if you are interested in learning more.
I recommend reading http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555 to all of you.
"The Nobel economist points out that “in a predictable world, the stronger CEO would be found to lead the more successful firm 100% of the time.” In a world in which random external factors determine success, the more successful firms would be led by stronger CEOs only 50% of the time. In other words, the effect of top talent might be said to be random. In reality, stronger CEOs lead stronger companies only 60% of the time."
Not sure if I agree with everything this article is saying or even if it is possible to "know" your subconscious. Biases "bubble up" from your subconscious that your conscious hardly ever notices. Unless your spending a gigantic amount of time rooting out and finding biases, your subconscious runs you and your conscious doesn't even notice. Source: Thinking Fast and Slow.
Free your tastes from the cage of other people's opinions and pretensions. Try young adult fiction like Harry Potter and trashy romance novels. Try anything by E.L. Doctorow. Or try some nonfiction. Anything by Carl Sagan, Richard Dawkins, Stephen Pinker...
http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555/ref=sr_1_12?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1394322770&amp;sr=1-12&amp;keywords=blink
http://www.amazon.com/Spark-Revolutionary-Science-Exercise-Brain/dp/0316113514/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1394322814&amp;sr=1-1&amp;keywords=spark
I'll add it to my list. Might have to read it after https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555
which seems pretty similar as well.
Daniel Kahneman wrote an excellent book called Thinking, Fast and Slow, which deals with this very issue.
Kahneman purports that the human mind operates according to two distinct systems. One is fast: instinctive, automatic, habitual, subconscious. The other is slow: deliberate, takes effort, concentrated. Some things we do instinctively or subconsciously because that is what it means to be a living human: breathing, for example. Some things we do instinctively because we have done them so many times that concentrated effort, though possible, is deemed unnecessary by our minds. When our minds determines that concentrated effort is not required, we begin to operate without thinking. This is the difference between driving home, which you've done many times, and driving to an unfamiliar destination.
These are the basics of what Kahneman explains far more brilliantly in his book, which I highly recommend.
Please correct any contextual errors :)
A Link to the Amazon page for the book.
People will adjust their expectations for your level which they will intuitively sense right away. What ever extreme judgements exist among the audience the majority statistcally will be of the moderate range with the base line being derived from that immediate intuition of your level.
This is my opinion after reading Thinking Fast and Slow.
Sports + tracking could be a big one. Companies like Opta employ huge amounts of labor to track and monitor soccer games, where trackers manually inspect games to curate a set of statistics (touches, passes etc.) Of course, this would need a complimentary device (not a phone) to establish the relationship between a player and a ball (sensor would be inside), but that somewhat depends on how this device is implemented; does it use Bluetooth, NFC or RFID?
Another use could be to detect absence/presence for events, offices and classrooms. And then if you can sync it up with Apple/Android pay, and if these sensors become really cheap, then people could buy things by simply picking them up and tapping a button on the sensor. And once the sensor on the item syncs with the device to confirm payment, you could detach the sensor and put it in a discard box to make these sensors reusable!
Personally, just having a log of things/objects you use each day would be incredible -- similar to Google's timeline feature, it can allow us to relive memories in a richer way as our memory fetching models are very context-heavy (Thinking, Fast and Slow). This log could also potentially be incorporated in an AI model (like Siri's or Google's), so that your home could be more intelligently automated, as you'll probably have patterns to things you do everyday.
I can relate to your problem, I have it too.
Let me describe what I'm trying these days: remind yourself that you don't really perceive reality, you live in a story that's partly based on what you experience and partly based on what you imagine or infer (and it's not always obvious which is which, and everything is seasoned with a lot of bias). This is true for everyone, actually. So any conversation is actually an intersection of the stories we live in. Everyone thinks their story is 'real', and if people with diverging 'stories' meet they have to work a little in order to avoid a fight. Remembering that your story is just a story, not the ultimate reality and the other person also lives in a story that's different helps. Trying to understand the other person's story and how absolute their belief in it is also helps.
Sorry if this little rant is unclear/obvious/generic/useless.
Take a look at http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555 to get a feel of how biased we are if you don't believe me :-)
Thinking, Fast and Slow: Daniel Kahneman
Short answer:
> "People want an authority to tell them how to value things, but they choose this authority not based on facts or results, they choose it because it seems authoritative and familiar." - Michael Burry; The Big Short.
> Why don't any of the people around us understand bitcoin? Why do they ignore it? Why do they refuse to look below the surface?
Because critical thinking consumes energy, and is not pleasant. Whenever we learn new things we have to fire up parts of the brain that we don't use as often.
For example: Learning to drive a car is a stressful and unpleasant time because your brain is fired up learning all the new skills, at once. After a few years you can drive without even thinking.
It's called Fast Thinking and Slow Thinking, slow thinking being when you are learning new skills, material, ideas etc., and fast thinking when you can do things automatically.
In short: People, all of us, don't like to think slow.
Long answer:
There's a book on the subject Thinking, Fast and Slow by Deniel Kahneman
> Major New York Times bestseller
> Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award in 2012
> Selected by the New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011
> A Globe and Mail Best Books of the Year 2011 Title
> One of The Economist's 2011 Books of the Year
> One of The Wall Street Journal's Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 2011
> 2013 Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient
> Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds
> In the international bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation―each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions.
> Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives―and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award and the Los Angeles Times Book Prize and selected by The New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011, Thinking, Fast and Slow is destined to be a classic.
I recently read The Rise of Superman: Decoding the Science of Ultimate Human Performance, which covers a lot of the neuroscience around this type of flow state. It also has a number of awesome stories about 'extreme' athletes including a number of names you will probably recognize.
Edit: Also you might finding Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow interesting. It talks about how flow state happens in what is often referred to as System 1, which is your intuitive, 'non-thinking' state.
I highly recommend both books.
Edit 2: Here is the Wikipedia article about Dual process theory. The idea is that flow mostly happens in process or system 1, which is stuff you are good at. In snowboarding speak, if you already have a ton of experience making turns and handling steep terrain then you may head into flow state when you head down a chute, when you 'quit thinking and start doing'.
Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman
Major New York Times bestseller
Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award in 2012
Selected by the New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011
A Globe and Mail Best Books of the Year 2011 Title
One of The Economist's 2011 Books of the Year
One of The Wall Street Journal's Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 2011
2013 Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient
Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds
In the international bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation―each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions.
Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives―and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award and the Los Angeles Times Book Prize and selected by The New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011, Thinking, Fast and Slow is destined to be a classic.
https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow
Alright, I'll expand. Hope you bear with me, this might be long and slightly tangential.
Basically, most of our strong beliefs are not something that we inspect regularly in our conscious mind. They are rather part of a general worldview that seems natural to us and are not given much thought ever. These beliefs more or less fit the worldview of our surrounding social environment, and that makes them relatively invisible to us. Not only that, but they often get boxed with what we perceive to be an objective perspective on reality. It's not a belief if it's reality, right? The beliefs that we do notice tend to be marginal beliefs that are more centered around our own experience of reality versus that of those surrounding us.
So for example, an American (typing with broad strokes here) middle manager may have a very different view of how one should build a career in a productive manner than an American retail worker playing music with his band on the weekends. This perspective on careers will appear to be a strong belief they both have because it may clash when they interact with each other, and the intense interactions may end up crystallizing these beliefs into what you'd call "strong beliefs", which then become an important part of a person's ideas when evaluating potential social relationships. But these beliefs about professional undertakings are actually very marginal compared to topics such as whether or not everyone can or should be happy, or whether or not people are generally trustworthy due to their nature. Human nature is perceived (wrongly) as something static by many, many people (especially in the US) and it affects policy-making, charity-giving, business practices, etc. The idea that human nature is static will change how we see redemption, how we see economic policies, how we even see intimate relationships. The belief that people hold free will will affect how we judge criminals, how we judge people who wronged us (I won't start on the topic of betrayal but god that word irks me), etc.
Now how we build our personal worldview and beliefs (strong or otherwise) is complex, so might as well take the time to suggest further reading on the matter:
Conrad Phillip Kottak's introductory book on Anthropology is well-respected, and I would recommend it to have a better overview of how different societies view the world quite differently, and how the local culture's worldview easily becomes one's own without actually realizing that it's happening. It's called enculturation - the learning of one's culture by living through it and interacting with others in it - and tends to be invisible to most people, despite its impact on a large amount of our beliefs.
As a small example of this but one I find rather valuable, there is a documentary on India's Ladakh region, called Ancient Futures - Learning from Ladakh, in which you can see the anthropologist interacting with women from the local communiy, and talking about how she can't really sew. And the women are just surprised because to them, you learn by practice, simply. There's no acceptance that someone can't learn to use the techniques they're using because they literally don't know anyone who can't sew. As long as you practice and sit with someone who knows how, you'll learn. And it's fascinating because in our culture, there is a prevalent belief that some people just can't learn functional understanding of certain things. Seems obvious, right? Not everyone can be an astrophysicist, not everyone can be a competent engineer. But what if that was wrong? And there's actually ridiculously interesting research on how this worldview can affect women in math classes, as well as young blacks in academic grading. People take all of this for granted but it is a massive component in how we view social policies.
Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett's researches in social epidemiology have done wonders in exploring the impacts of socioeconomic inequality on a massive amount of social factors, such as criminality, self-esteem, academic performance, etc. And this is only for one (albeit an important) factor in societies; how unequal the distribution of income is. 400 scientific articles later, one finds a clear trend; socioeconomic inequality has massive impact on things that you would never think of. They affect how people trust each other within a given society, because larger differences in socioeconomic circumstances lead to more conflict and different subcultures having trouble interacting with each other because their reality is so different. This seems beside the point but it really isn't; it strongly affects how the average person thinks others around him/her are worthy of trust. It has consequences on how we relate to each other and how we see the average stranger. This is not something we can inspect easily without knowing about it firsthand, so it's a "hidden" belief that is crazy in its impact on our lives.
And these factors all relate to general beliefs about others and the world, in an external manner. We also have trouble understanding a lot of what goes on inside our own decision-making process, which most people think does belong to them. Some researches have shown that you can impact someone's perspective on a stranger they just met by priming them with negative words or unpleasant experiences prior to the meeting, or by making them suffer through prolonged mental problem-solving. A paper studying the chances of getting paroled by parole judges observed that you had the most chance right after they had eaten, and the least before noon because they became more impatient towards inmates when their blood sugar was low. Other studies have shown that if you test cognitive reflexes for racism, most people who do not think that they are indeed racist will find that they have a ton more prejudice than they originally thought. This doesn't register as much when thinking about how you consciously view the world but it shows when writing or interacting with others without being focused on your own thoughts. This is probably one of the biggest reasons why you see minorities struggling so much to be represented in mainstream culture, except for the token black guy or the "faire-valoir" woman.
I'm written too much already but I strongly recommend Daniel Kahnemann's book Thinking, Fast and Slow to better understand what cognitive sciences have taught us about how our thoughts are affected by our brain's physiology and our prior experiences. I am serious in saying this; there is no way this book will not be useful to you in some way, no matter what kind of life you lead. If you have limited time or money, he gives this lecture which is kind of alright to summarize his book. I stress this man particularly because he is a legend. The man is reasonable, intelligent, and has more than three decades of solid research to back what he says.
I wanted to mention questions of free will more because they kinda relate to this whole thing but I'm gonna stop here and just recommend you check out Sam Harris' lecture on Free Will on youtube. I don't agree with much of what the guy says on other topics but he summarizes things well in that specific lecture.
Sorry again for writing such a wall of text. I hope that was worth the time to read it.
Thinking, fast and slow is a must-read if you haven't read it.
We're talking "Framing." If it does not fit into ones own "Frame" it is rejected. No matter what the logic.
People are NOT logical. You can see that happening dozens of times a day. We all create our own reality, for survival. You see a blue sky, I see a lion charging at us.
You see Trump going bonkers, his base sees him as being attacked by Fake News. Their brains are permanently wired, not sure what it would take to convince them.
This is why everyone goes for the independent voters, they are "swayable", the other two sides, impossible to convince one way or the other.
Actually, let me repeat this, it's pretty important to understand. Based on the latest in understanding the brain, the how that all works.
"You see a blue sky, I see a lion charging at us."
AKA:
https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1543597120&sr=8-2&keywords=thinking+fast+and+slow
> but you're sexist and need to learn about your bias.
There are tons of books on business/decision-making out there which focus on the idea of how unconscious biases can lead to worse outcomes/poor management/lost money. I feel like getting someone to buy into the idea that biases lead to worse outcomes can be a good path to helping them identify biases which may be more uncomfortable to confront initially.
Examples:
https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555
https://www.amazon.com/Predictably-Irrational-Revised-Expanded-Decisions/dp/0061353248
https://www.amazon.com/Blink-Power-Thinking-Without/dp/0316010669
I think we may agree then. I agree that there is a ton of unrecognized bias and it's important to help people understand their own biases and how they affect their decisions.
Have you read the book Thinking Fast and Slow? I enjoyed it a lot.
Sorry, but you simply do not know what you are talking about. I think you romanticize the physical sciences. Medical research is messy... is that pseudoscience based on feelings? Political scientists apply statistical tools to support their positions. Read literally any journal of political science. I would suggest looking into articles discussing the effect of media bias on voting patterns, which would alarm you (if you believed in stats and political science).
Since you brought up psychology just to disparage it, I would recommend reading Thinking, Fast and Slow.
https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555
out of 2,827 amazon reviews over 2,500 are 4 star+. I am very intrigued.
"Modern wheat, in particular, is responsible for destroying more brains in this country than all the strokes, car accidents, and head trauma combined. Dr. Perlmutter makes a persuasive case for this wheat-free approach to preserve brain health and functioning, or to begin the process of reversal." --William Davis, MD
My response to this, is literally, wtf.
I am currently reading another book, Thinking fast and slow, I'm only 30 pages in and love it. It's more of a http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555 less diet focus, more psychology. This book is legit.
But if I finish it I might pick this up, though I'm not going to lie. I am a very discerning reader. Whole grains destroying your brain..? Wtf are they getting at... Let's all just eat a bunch of salami + cream cheese while avoiding oatmeal and bam! healthy diet! yeah, right...
But I am open minded. Forward motion! At the same time, give me your best shot! Bet I could run a 24 mile marathon faster then almost everyone who reviewed that book... >:)
I think the explanation Grey is looking for is something that a lot of people are grappling with today. One of the best explanations I have found for the same is in the book Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman. I am sure Grey has probably already read this book before though it is beneficial to look at it in the context of social media and our brains today. For example, the book talks about Systems 1 and 2 of thinking. While system 1 primarily involves our instinctive reaction, system 2 tries to invoke our brain to try to think. The social media today, including reddit etc are all examples of systems trying exploit our system 1 just to get a visceral reaction without us really using our critical thinking. The fact that there are so many podcasts out there can mean that sometimes even long podcasts can be analysed by our system 1s. I most definitely have been guilty of the same in the past.
One of the reasons Facebook is being blamed for elections today can also come out to this. Its not like people haven't had access to information in the past. Nonetheless, the fact that news today is much more instant and dependent on getting us to click or grab our attention means we really don't critically analyse it as much as we should, leading to the rise of fake news and headlines. Another helpful albeit short book about the same which I can recommend is The People VS Tech which is much more recent and gives a much better context to the ideas of system 1 and 2. This is probably one of the context that can help people think about what Grey is doing in a better manner.
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Clearly, using more of System 1 can deeply affect the way we think, as that is most definitely more comfortable and doesn't easily challenge our brains.
I initially followed the principles of Stoicism, which is a philosophy that's very close to the principles of CBT. So my first resource was /r/Stoicism, where you can find things like this and this that have direct correlation with CBT principles. Greek and Roman literature might be hard to get into, but there are very readable translations and the principles are applicable.
Of course, not everyone is interested in philosophy, so my recommendation would be to find something along the lines of Judith Beck's Cognitive Therapy, or other similar resources that are based on research. I can't really recommend else because I haven't read much from other authors.
But in general I would recommend reading about cognitive biases in general, along the lines of this, this, this, or this. Being conscious of how everybody thinks might help you see some negative spirals in your life, and can help you change the environment that might lead you to that negativity.
But again, professional help can be very useful, so definitely consult a professional who is maybe better for you. Good luck!
Like I said, weird psychology. I know it sounds crazy, but it happens, and, actually, people are capable of even more counterintuitive behavior than that.
If you're interested, I highly recommend this book. The human brain is not really wired to be all that rational or consistent. As long as things are coherent at a given moment in time, the brain is just fine with that.
This is why stuff like the big lie work.
The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference - Malcolm Gladwell
The Power of Habit: Why We Do What We Do in Life and Business - Charles Duhigg
Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman
------------ On my list -----------------
Think Like a Freak - Steven D. Levitt & Stephen J. Dubner
Yup, the framing effect as described by Daniel Kahneman in http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555
Where are the premises of your arguments?
>If we are not rational actors, what sense does it make to allow some of them to rule others?
Where is this coming from? Who are you talking about ruling who?
Personally, I don't think that anyone should be ruling over anyone else. I think all people should be involved in their own governance, but it's obviously tricky to implement in practice.
Please stop saying "if we are not rational actors". This is not an unanswered question. We are not rational actors (not by any definition of rational worth using, at least). For my favorite book on the subject, check out Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow. There's a lot more research out there though.
Just saw Never Split the Difference. Are you familiar with it? Like it?
I like to read books that are not usually about business but see how the technicques and mindset applies. For example 'Never Split The Difference' is also a great book for learning negotiation skills (https://www.amazon.de/Never-Split-Difference-Negotiating-Depended-ebook/dp/B014DUR7L2)
Have you read "The E-Myth Revisited" by Michael Gerber?
It lays out the concept and process for setting up your business to run itself without you.
Come over to r/smallbusiness and read E-Myth Revisited.
E-Myth
There is actually a book about this subject with a howto-approach: The E-Myth
Ironically after 6 years I just changed careers. If you're thinking about photography think about small business first. It's like having 2 jobs. You can be successful as a crappy photographer with a great business ability but not the other way around.
relevant reading
First, read the E-Myth Revisited. Never turn something you love into a business.
If you still want to tackle this, what need are you filling? Are there no rescues or animal shelters in your county currently? Are they inadequate/corrupt? Are there grooming/boarding businesses that are thriving? What about dog walking services? Is there an organized network for pet sitters? Are there illegal breeders on Craigslist?
Zoning laws are going to be a big hurdle. It's probably not allowed to have too many animals in one place that isn't a farm.
read E-Myth Revisited - it's about a woman who bakes great pies, so she opens a bakery:
http://www.amazon.com/The-E-Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses/dp/0887307280/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1335464106&amp;sr=8-1
I have to draw a lot of conclusions from your post, but I have to second therapy or talking to someone about your thoughts. It seems like you might be doing that already.
About your business, it sounds like you're so stressed out because you don't know how to deal with problems that arise or why they're happening in the first place. First thing is you need to learn how to blame the process, not the person. When someone makes a mistake, you need to figure out how your process has allowed them to make that mistake in the first place. I think if you had better tools to solve your business problems, your passion for the business might spark up again. Hiring an additional person as people are suggesting I don't think is the right move. You'll have to pay them a large salary to deal with the stress and then you'll be held hostage when they quit or ask for a huge raise. The real problem is the stress itself and that's what you have to focus on getting rid of in your business.
Read the book The E-Myth Revisited if you haven't already. I think that can relate to a lot of your struggles and will help you to hopefully work more on your business than in it.
Then I would try and read 2 Second Lean. I don't know what kind of business you have, while this book is geared towards manufacturing, it doesn't matter. Lean is all about making work struggle free and even fun. The concepts can be applied to any business and for me implementing the ideas has made my business fun for me and gave me a new found purpose within it.
I'm sure you can turn things around for yourself. It's impressive you've gotten as far as you have and you're bound to have bumps along the way. Just have to keep looking forward.
10x Rule 10x
The E-Myth Revisited E myth
48 Laws Of Power 48 Laws Of Power
https://www.amazon.com/Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses-About/dp/0887307280
The E-Myth Revisited
https://www.amazon.com/dp/0887307280/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_i_dRTTDbDKHC1JV
If you have time for a read, this is a great one. Everything you said here is covered in some form or other.
Being a hobbyist game dev you can take your time and enjoy it as an art form. If you want to make money as an independent professional, then (whether you understand it or not) you have now started a small business and all of the rules of entrepreneurship now apply.
I tool around in my spare time because it makes me happy to animate things with code, and it's a break from the monotony of corporate dev. I have owned several small businesses in the past and can say from experience that the best way to make a small fortune in game dev is to start with large one, but that's how it is with all of the entertainment industry, a winner take all scenario.
Still worth the time sink because it's fun - just know what you are getting into :)
E Myth helped me a ton. It's a book by Michael Gerber. The E Myth site also used to have free resources on it, but I don't think it does anymore.
Otherwise Entrepreneur Magazine, Inc. Magazine and SBA.gov are all good.
I've also learned a ton from iTunes University podcasts by Yale Entrepreneurial Institute.
Hi, Do check out brightpod for managing your projects. It's a new project management software and is really easy to use. We have been using it since 2 months now and really like how simple it is to use.
Two good book to read would be The E-Myth Revisited: Why Most Small Businesses Don't Work and What to Do About It and The E-Myth Manager: Why Management Doesn't Work - and What to Do About It
This has nothing to do with /r/atheism... your friend didn't get to market fast enough and didn't protect her trade secrets. Business is harsh, she better hurry up and buy a few books on marketing.
Beyond that, this book is very helpful:
http://www.amazon.com/E-Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses-About/dp/0887307280
Watch the Art of the Start by Guy Kawasaki
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3755718939216161559#
Also be sure to read The Emyth
http://www.amazon.com/E-Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses-About/dp/0887307280
So I have to be an entrepeneur? Finishing up The E-myth Revisited.
You need to read this book: https://www.amazon.com/Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses-About/dp/0887307280
very interesting reply, i also work with my dad and brother. would you mind if i DM you and ask you some questions? hard to find places for relevant information on improving a company with such a specific family environment.
also, i read this book recently (fairly commonly read i believe), it talks about the three roles within a startup/small business. may be of interest to you if you have not seen it before. very easy read. some parts focus more on creating franchises IIRC, which is not relevant to our business, but an excellent read regardless.
What is your margin? I know you said that you will have a $10 markup, but what are your total expenses?
Besides quickbooks, intuit purchased the homestead website builder company and they offer websites for $5/month or web stores for $25/month which are directly linked to quickbooks to make things easy.
Remember that at this point it is not a business as much as it is self employment. Pickup a $1.50 copy of The E-myth Revisited and at least skim it.
If you want to cheer yourself up a little you could have a look at this book:
https://www.amazon.com/Factfulness-Reasons-World-Things-Better/dp/1250107814
For example, two-thirds of US citizens believe the global proportion of people living in extreme poverty has doubled in the past couple of decades; it has halved. The world is not as gloomy as you may think.
Before you believe random youtube videos on global statistics. I recommend you read 'factfullness' by Hans Rosling
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He passed in 2017 but was a health specialist to the UN and He was the Professor of International Health at Karolinska Institute: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Rosling
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https://www.amazon.com/Factfulness-Reasons-World-Things-Better/dp/1250107814
Jeg er ved at læse Hans roslings sidste bog.
https://www.amazon.com/Factfulness-Reasons-World-Things-Better/dp/1250107814
Den er rigtig god, masser af input om hvordan man kan se på verden hvis man tænker på fakta og ikke så meget på mediernes fokus på katastrofer og drama.
Det er ham der har ret og hvor journalisten tager fejl.
https://heartbeats.dk/jeg-har-ret-og-du-tager-fejl/
> also many people don't understand or exaggerate that developed and undeveloped part, years ago i was with a friend of mine and we were talking to some girl from germany for fun, and she asked us "do you in syria have cars and phones like us?"
That just means 'developed' and 'underdeveloped' are poor labels, or that 'underdeveloped' contains a much wider group than the other one. Factfulness separated people in 4 income groups, perhaps this is better with you?:
> Level 1: People live on less than $2 a day. Rosling estimates that one billion people are living at or below this threshold. They get around on their own two barefoot feet, cook over an open flame like a cookfire, fetch water in a bucket, and sleep on the ground.
This is what most people understand if they hear the word underdeveloped/developing. Basically, tribes and very conservative lifestyles.
> Level 2: This is the income group where the majority of the world's people live. They get by on between $2 and $8 a day and might have some possessions like a bicycle, a mattress, or a gas canister for cooking at home.
This is the stereotypical view of Eastern Europe, India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America in movies, and while this might be true in those regions for rural areas, most of the people living there are level 3 and 4.
> Level 3: This is the second most populous category on Rosling's list, after level 2. People in level 3 live on anywhere from $8 a day to $32. They have running water, might own a motorbike or car, and their meals are a rich and colorful mix of foods from day to day. They also probably have electricity and a fridge, which makes things like studying and eating enough varied nutrients easier.
What you were talking about are countries in Level 3.
> Level 4: Like level 1, roughly one billion of the world's people live on this level. They make $32 a day or more and have things like running water (both hot and cold) at home, a vehicle in the driveway, and plenty of nutrients on their plate. They've also likely had the chance to finish twelve years of school, or more.
Basically, the people who want to help.
Factfulness will really open your eyes to the amazing improvements humanity has made over the last generation. A refreshing perspective that typically gets overshadowed by the doom and gloom of today's reporting
I know it's easy to feel poorly about the world, and our own lives, but the reality is quite positive. I recommend the book Factfulness. The times we live in are actually quite spectacular...and they're getting better.
https://www.amazon.com/Factfulness-Reasons-World-Things-Better/dp/1250107814/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1538738715&sr=8-2&keywords=factfulness&dpID=51tvugRSHKL&preST=_SY344_BO1,204,203,200_QL70_&dpSrc=srch
This is what he will recommend : https://www.amazon.com/dp/1250107814/ref=cm_sw_em_r_mt_awdo_KZcDCbRWYZQ5P
Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World — and Why Things Are Better Than You Think
I think you might like this book
Here are two great books to start with:
Personal MBA - https://www.amazon.com/Personal-MBA-Master-Art-Business/dp/1591845572?ie=UTF8&amp;*Version*=1&amp;*entries*=0
Entreleadership - https://www.amazon.com/EntreLeadership-Practical-Business-Wisdom-Trenches/dp/1451617852/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1466870653&amp;sr=1-1&amp;keywords=entreleadership+dave+ramsey
I am in a similar situation. I have spent my summers working for my family business. I worked at the assembly, warehouse, R&D you name it. I think its important to understand the people that you work with, understand their day-to-day jobs and really know your company.
Start with the product, learn every detail of the process it goes through to become a final product. You will also build a good relationship with your workers that is important too.
Once you feel confident, dive into management. Accountants and marketing people are the backbone of the business. Know what they are doing, their strategies. Learn how financing works in the company and who you are selling your products. Make some cold-calls to new customers, learn the trick of the trade.
Only once you really know how things work, set a goal! Say "I will grow this company 2 times the size it is today!" - its easier said than done.
If you didnt receive a former education in business, here are my top sources where I learnt a lot:
https://www.amazon.com/Personal-MBA-Master-Art-Business/dp/1591845572/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1473345589&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=personal+mba
https://www.amazon.com/HBR%C2%92s-Must-Reads-Boxed-Books/dp/1422184056/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1473345608&amp;sr=8-2&amp;keywords=HBR+essentials
These books wont tell you how to run your grandfather's business but they will tell you what a business is/does and how you can steer it. The rest is creativity, hard work and vision.
Hope this helps!
You shared a lot of information and I have just a few thoughts for your consideration. These are in no particular order. These more focus on the advice-guidance. I am in a technical field and though I lead some strategically, I'm more a technical advisor than director.
I hope they help and good luck.
I'm not familiar with any textbooks but one book that's similar to a textbook is The Personal MBA (https://www.amazon.com/Personal-MBA-Master-Art-Business/dp/1591845572/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1538444048&sr=8-2&keywords=personal+MBA). I found it to be like a textbook in a negative way and never finished reading it because I'm personally more into mindset. He read hundreds of business books and compiled all that knowledge into this book. It's exhaustive from that standpoint.
There is a really excellent book called The Personal MBA that could easily be read in less than a week. It would not make you "well rounded" in one week but it does summarize and give good explanations of much of what you would learn in an MBA curriculum. Definitely something to include. I am not connected with the author.
I also recently got started in the share market. I've been applying to IPOs and gradually learning about how to judge whether a company is fundamentally strong or not. I'm learning from a combination of reading news( news on the company, acquisitions, sentiments), books on how investing works(https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/817589.Learn_to_Earn), how a business works(https://www.amazon.com/Personal-MBA-Master-Art-Business/dp/1591845572) and various financial metrics(P/E ratio, EPS, etc.) via data camp(https://www.datacamp.com/courses/importing-managing-financial-data-in-python, https://www.datacamp.com/courses/intro-to-financial-concepts-using-python, https://www.datacamp.com/courses/intro-to-portfolio-risk-management-in-python).
I found a lot of value in The Personal MBA. Sit down with it some afternoon and it'll help you decide what path to take.
I'd start with either the Complete MBA For Dummies or The Complete Idiot's Guide to MBA Basics, 3rd Edition then advance to The Personal MBA: Master the Art of Business or The Ten-Day MBA 4th Ed..
I don't know if it's the link or the website, but I get a redirection...not the best for thrusting a website.
Wordpress (.org) is great just find a better theme and browse the plugins.
for example Louis vuitton is running on wordpress. There is a lot of multinationals using wordpress.
And do the updates !!! you're using wordpress 4.5.4, the last version is 4.7
You need a theme with a e-commerce integrated in it and a SSL certificate
in order to sell; I didn't get what you want to sell btw.
Also I hope you have a backup of your website!
Online Business query on youtube - Freemium is the trend you can find a lot of free tutorial to learn the basics of business on youtube.
Next I recommend some readings (not affiliate):
-The personnal MBA - Josh Kaufman
-Growth Hacker Marketing - Ryan Holiday
A nice broad crash course is The Personal MBA. I wouldn't say it's in-depth, but a good overview of a wide range of concepts.
Oh man. It's a long journey from "no clue" to "men's suits" even without the business aspect. To get started in garment sewing, I'd recommend starting with aprons and then pajama pants. Both are those are simple, use cheap fabrics, and require you to learn the techniques you'll use in more advanced sewing - and you can still wear them around the house, even if they turn out embarrassingly bad. (The first few probably will suck pretty bad!) You can also experiment on those forms with buttons, zippers, elastic, embroidery, lots of design elements you'll need for other garments.
The name of the game in this learning cycle is "fail faster". If you work on a more complex garment (even in the muslin stage) you'll be significantly time-invested before you see how it's turning out. You can make an apron or some PJ pants in an afternoon. Almost-instant addicting gratification and you can see where you need more practice quickly.
On the business side, becoming a recognized brand happens via marketing. You should read The Personal MBA as a primer on business in general. I work for an ad agency, and I've worked on fashion brands - it's tough to make it in fashion, whether it's fast fashion or designer. A lot of people want to "become recognized", it's a high-competition field. Not saying you shouldn't go for it, just be realistic that "recognized brand" does not happen overnight (or cheaply).
There's a million things most people on this sub could recommend, and really the learning never stops.
Here are some good starting points:
The Hard Thing About Hard Things - Ben Horowitz
Zero to One - Peter Thiel
The Personal MBA - Josh Kaufman
The Four Hour Work Week - Tim Ferris
On second thought, I would read The Signal and the Noise first, I think it's got a lot of good advice about life in general as well as predictions.
You could load up your stuff into excel just as a start and try to do some back fitting, like try to see what method has the most accurate prediction. You have to be aware of over fitting with this though, especially in a small set of data.
EDIT: I would also look into Fortune's Formula it's probably one of my favorite books, primarily about the Kelly Criterion but it talks about a whole bunch of stuff. Definitely would be interesting to a mathematician.
These two are more cool stories and advice than "how to make a model" like Who's #1.
In Poker, each player at the table is playing against all the other players, rather than against the dealer. The house takes a cut of each pot instead of fielding a hand. Players in Poker aren't subject to the standardized behavior rules that a dealer in Blackjack is, and each player has significantly more hidden information in Poker than in Blackjack which means significantly more possibilities to account for in each hand for a "skilled" player.
It also means that more of Poker is built around reading other players, trying to divine what hand they might have based on their betting behavior—and based on their prior performance, whether or not they're deliberately trying to throw people by betting like they have a better or worse hand than they actually have.
Also, decks in Poker are shuffled after each hand, which makes Blackjack-style counting impossible.
There ARE people who make a living playing Poker, but it's not easy. Nate Silver talks about his experience as a professional Poker player in his book, The Signal and the Noise. One of the big takeaways is that the long run is even longer in Poker than it is in Blackjack—even a talented pro who consistently plays well and ultimately has a profitable career can have years where they lose tens of thousands of dollars.
I thought it was general knowledge that the climate model forecasts have overestimated the rise in temperature. Nate Silver had some interesting things to say about it in his book.
What purpose is the figure with the smoothed data points supposed to serve other than to mislead?
The Signal and the Noise is a very light read as math(s) books go, but it's definitely interesting!
Finally, something I can answer on this sub!
I got a degree in cell biology, did the lab jobs, and didn't like it. I'm working on applying to post grad degrees in statistics and CS now. There are a lot of specialized data science degrees out there too.
Here's a book on broad ideas of data to get you started.
If you do happen to like dealing with big data, you must learn programming to get work at all. There's a lot of online programs built for this. I'm doing Udacity' data analyst nanodegree. I'd say your biology degree is mostly useless when applying for these jobs. Entry level into data science is mostly going to be about data wrangling which is pretty much all programming. You'll want to brush up on your statistics class, Python, SQL, and R.
It would be interesting. That reminds me of Nate Silver. He is a statistician that has done everything from baseball stats to presidential election stats.
His presidential election stats were very accurate, and they used a system you are describing. They took in all the predictions, then weighted those predictions based on prior accuracy of the predictor. Very interesting stuff described in his book The Signal and the Noise. I'm reading it now, and it is fascinating.
Are you thinking of The Signal and The Noise?
Generally speaking, it is from Bayesian probability
For more, Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is a good primer
Nate Silver has a book addressing this exactly.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/159420411X/ref=redir_mdp_mobile
I am not Nate, just a fan of his work.
I don't have any links about it but it's a pretty well known thing: the stopping problem. A quick google will give you lots of resources!
The book is on amazon! book link
I really liked the algorithms to live by book. Not heavy on the math, very approachable. I personally think it should be required reading for any CS50.
https://www.amazon.com/Algorithms-Live-Computer-Science-Decisions/dp/1627790365
You are wrong, the only books to learn Java foundation is core Java..
Of course, you should read some books about algorithms but not necessarily related to Java,
I recommend
Algorithms to live
Also I don't think the book effective Java should be read at the beginning.. because this book is used to tidying up your knowledge....
The value of studying a CS program is they are not only programming, the more they are doing problem solving by building large project rather than continually doing exercises in books.
The books you have read are quite enough, just start building something..
Algorithms to Live By is a new 2017 book, but it explains data structures that even a kindergartener could understand. It isn't a thorough deep-dive into computer science, but it compares real life problems to computer science problems. The author speaks in plain english and some of the scenarios he brings up are damn interesting.
You have discovered the explore/exploit dilemma, also known as the multi-armed bandit problem. Should you search for new things you on the chance you will like them, or continue to listen to the things you know you like?
I do the same thing with Spotify. I have a large list of "saved" music on there that I often come back to and shuffle when I need something familiar. But every so often I like to branch out and find something new, either with the weekly discover playlists, or by going to a song I like and playing the rest of that artist's songs or switching to radio mode so it will suggest more. With this method I gradually build up more songs for my list. Also every so often I remember a song I like and search for it, and then I can explore that artist's other songs. But the vast majority of the time I want the sure thing, so I go to my saved songs list and hit shuffle.
Btw, I learned about the multi-armed bandit problem from the book Algorithms to Live By.
No worries, just making sure it's the right book. This one, right?
Nevertheless, thanks for the recommendation!
> They were on auto-pilot
The most instinctual thing for a person to do when inside something that's on fire is to get out as soon as possible - finding and bringing your physical possessions with you as well is what requires higher-order thinking. Especially when these people had several minutes while in the air to plan out their actions once they land. The explanation is simply a combination of a lack of judgment and selfishness.
> It does not exist in the body of popular media
What? Every other self-help book (examples: 1, 2) out there makes the contrast between the limbic system and the neocortex.
The House I Live In is a recent documentary about the war on drugs and it's impact on poor, especially black communties. It helps explain why blacks are predominantly targeted for drug crimes, even though research shows that drug abuse affects black & white communities at the same rate.
When you couple the imbalanced law enforcement rates with the way blacks are portrayed on the evening news, a very unjust portrait of the black community results. And since most people stay within their clique (Asians hang with asians, whites with whites, blacks with blacks), people form biases about other races without obtaining first-hand experiences by working with people of another race. Moreover, our "confirmation biases" compel us to focus on information that confirms our beliefs instead of considering all of the information fairly (See Thinking Fast & Slow )
So when you look at the facts in context, and understand all of the pressures making you believe that "all blacks are thugs", you'll realize that it's far from the truth.
My pleasure friend!
Best negotiations I ever had were from me standing my ground and saying "I appreciate the offer, that really is super generous of you, but unfortunately that doesn't work for me." then they end up trying to compromise but if it's enough you need to say something to that effect again. Sometimes you even have to say "no" more than once in a negotiation to get where you need to be.
If you want to get some handy tips for negotiations I highly recommend Never Split the Difference. It's written by a highly successful ex-FBI hostage negotiator and has a wealth of information. I've reread it three times now just to make sure it sticks.
This actually illustrates the logic of 'getting to no' instead of yes:
https://www.amazon.com/Never-Split-Difference-Negotiating-Depended-ebook/dp/B014DUR7L2
&#x200B;
The fact that those were old is totally irrelevant. Too much emphasis on that. They were sales people. And you can beat them in their weasel game. Read something like Never split the difference for a start.
Also, I have to add that amazingly, there are exceptions. I know sales people who are actually after a profit/living like all of us but are still relaxed and pretty decent human beings with enough empathy to avoid being evil just to line their pockets - truly looking for win-win scenarios where they make some and you're well served.
If your interested, read up. But no one on this site reads books...
> http://www.amazon.com/Disinformation-Strategies-Undermining-Attacking-Promoting/dp/1936488604
> http://www.amazon.com/Unholy-Alliance-Radical-Islam-American/dp/0895260263
> http://www.amazon.com/Americas-Secret-War-Worldwide-Struggle/dp/0767917855/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1453493219&amp;sr=1-1&amp;keywords=americas+secret+war
> http://www.amazon.com/The-Next-100-Years-Forecast/dp/0767923057
Look at George Friedman's The Next 100 Years.
This is a good starting point on how one should be predicting which countries might become great powers and which will decline. His actual predictions don't really matter here, however; the takeaway is that long-term analysis of geopolitics relies a holistic and multidisciplinary approach and situational awareness of world events rather than simple linear extrapolations. Projections of population and GDP and other metrics are not going to give you anything close to the complete picture, even though they deceptively lead you to believe they do.
Anyway, predictions:
I think many liberals are the "useful idiots" , that are getting played. This is a good book The next 100 years
The problem isn't exactly Syria or Iran. It's Iran+Turkey+Syria+(others). Does the West want to fight them one at a time or as a group...
-PamPoovey22, parent
This subreddit and bot are not in any way affiliated with the moderators of /r/The_Donald. Direct questions about removal to them.
Or reading through The Next Hundred Years again.
So MS-13 is simply a FedEx of drugs? I doubt that assumption and what is taking place in the whole of Latin America goes beyond drugs. It's a cultural item that is deeply complex and I won't get into.
Being resistant to bribes is true but MS-13 and alike don't care at this point. The can access, move, transport with much ease once on US soil. I agree drawing attention isn't the best avenue but we're not dealing with like-minded people here.
The question is: What is their goal? I don't think it has a business plan on file with the SBA but I would think it is to spread for many base ideals. Continue recruitment and repeat. Unless someone has a solution handy, I don't think this stops until.... as I noted earlier by a few researcher publications. Cited below.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0767923057/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i0
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1455583685/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i0
You should read The Black Swan. An enlightening take on that and other things.
https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1483829158&amp;sr=8-2&amp;keywords=black+swan
The Black Swan sorry, no not the Natalie Portman movie
The Red Queen
Bonk
www.investopedia.com for looking up financial terms.
www.bloomberg.com for financial news.
Warren Buffet talk on youtube
Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letters
Books-
The warren buffet way will help you analyse companies.
The intelligent investor the book on value investing.
Common stocks and uncommon profits the book on picking growth stocks.
The black swan useful insight into options trading.
Anything and everything by Michael Lewis, he writes so well, his books will give you insight into how the finance industry actually works and they're entertaining; Liars Poker chronicles how the Mortgage Backed Security was created and is a good start.
When you're done with all that, let me know and I'll send more your way! Studying for the CFA helps too as recommended by the other guy posting here but you by no means need a finance/business major.
Submission Statement: Universality fairly easily leads to the conclusion that humans anywhere out of the left tail are fundamentally the same, mentally speaking.
>In computation, universality simply means a process that can simulate all processes — including itself. By simulation, we mean copying the behavior of a process to as much fidelity as we would like. At some point, if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and walks like a duck, we stop, and consider it a duck for all practical purposes. (There, I wrapped the Turing test for artificial general intelligence in a nutshell for you.) Replace “processes” with “machines,” and you roughly see how computers work: a universal machine is a machine that can simulate all machines, including itself. You can think of a machine simply as a process that transforms an input to an output following a fixed set of rules.
>
>...
>
>Think about it: if the human species depended on exceptional geniuses who nevertheless could never communicate their exceptional thoughts to another human being, then either they are intellectual con-artists (like postmodernist “philosophers”), or we would have been doomed a long time ago. Although a few critical individuals clearly hit upon the right ideas at the right place at the right time, many other individuals need to be able to independently verify and improve upon these ideas. The real intelligence lies in human cooperation. There is no such thing as an exponentially smarter human being for the same reason as there is no such thing as an exponentially taller human being. A genius who cannot communicate his thoughts to another human is, in fact, not a genius!
>
>...
>
>As an individual, what matters much, much more than your alleged IQ is what you do with your precious, limited time on Earth. Remember, universality says that we are all capable of exactly the same ideas. That is why even differences in human languages don’t really matter. (Whether or not the Sapir-Whorf hypothesis is true, we get for free the result that it is ultimately irrelevant.) Remember, the insidious thing about IQ — as Nassim astutely observed with his owl eye— is that there are people who fancy “their” people genetically smarter than yours, and only want to “help” you. (They are often the same people who like to mistakenly think that the “West” discovered all civilization, and that the “West” is Nordic / North Atlantic / North Europe.) At best, they are overeducated idiots; at worst, they are racialists. No matter what anyone tells you, you can learn about anything you like. Go out, and find out what you are good at, what Nature put you here to discover, and teach the rest of us.
>
>So, who should care about IQ? Nobody! Why? Because we are universal!
> Normal Distribution
For what it's worth, research has shown that prices aren't normally distributed and the assumption that they are is argued to have caused an underestimation of risk that triggered the '08 financial crisis (among other market crashes). The Black Swan and the Misbehavior of Markets both discuss this for general audiences. The author of the second book, Benoit Mandelbrot, began to uncover these mistaken assumptions while researching the applications of fractal geometry to finance.
>read the most recommended book by financiers, OR the most recommended book by economists
Citation needed?
I've looked through several lists- and haven't found one that supports this claim. I found this recommendation, but it's rather shaky.
Based on the top review for your Black Swan on Amazon, your stance doesn't quite make sense in context of what the book is suggesting.
I'll quote it:
>One reaction to Taleb's arguments about how little we can ultimately know and on what shaky ground our beliefs lie is to stand, like a deer in the headlights, waiting for better information. Taleb argues that this is a mistake. It might be a bit better to proceed, looking for evidence that would prove one's course of action wrong, then modify one's model of reality and repeat the process. Doing this has the advantage that one can learn quite quickly about how any problem is bounded, and get some sense for the shape of the space inside. He quotes Warren Buffet: it is a great deal better to be approximately right than it is to be precisely wrong. And when choosing among things to believe, he advises us to rank beliefs not by their implausibility but by the harm they might cause. Although there are robust methods that draw on both judgments, this is generally very sound advice.
Sounds like your guy agrees with me, oddly enough. Maybe you've gotta make the wrong decision and course-correct to the right one- not do nothing or turn in reverse.
----
> it's doubtful that you read anything longer than 2 pages
I stay up-to-date on current events and politics. I read news articles and think pieces. I listen to a lot of podcasts about a lot of varied topics. I listen to literature via audiobook.
No, I don't make a habit of reading long discussions from just one guy's point of view. Heck, I've had the audiobook for Man with a Thousand Faces on my iPhone for about six months, and still haven't quite made it through, and that's a book I'm very interested in.
Never-mind something I'm not, that's supposedly going to tell me that we should lie on our backs and wait for the world's environments to collapse before we put anymore environmenal regulations in place. You know- just to make sure nothing too surprising happens.
It's not just Zero Hedge that expects the dollar to fall.
Rick Falkvinge: http://falkvinge.net/2011/06/17/the-imminent-dollar-collaps-explained-to-an-8-year-old/
Nassim Taleb: http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-02-04/news/28430704_1_treasuries-bond-buying-program-bonds-next-week
Max Keiser: http://rt.com/op-edge/keiser-international-confidence-crumbling-snowden-182/#.UcloP9kuGEs.twitter
These are just a couple of links which I found within two minutes, kind of from the top of my head. I could find a lot more of them if I'd take the time, but I kind of feel like you're not reading any of them anyways - since apparently I'm just 'attributing poverty to a scapegoat'.
Like, seriously, if you're still convinced that the financial cartel is ran by a bunch of nice people who mean the best for the world - I don't know what to say. That honestly, truly, seems like some weird form of the Stockholm complex to me - but I believe I have said that already.
You have read about the Libor schandal, right? You must be aware of the '08 bail-outs - based on fraudulent financial products? And the fact that nobody has gone to jail over that? Like, surely you are familiar with the whole to-big-to-fail and to-big-for-jail concept... You know what, I'm just gonna copy/paste the urls I linked to before, 'cause I really don't know what else to say.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/joris-luyendijk-banking-blog/2013/jun/20/bankers-predators-proto-fascist-ideology
http://www.economist.com/node/21558281
https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2174785/HSBC-scandal-Britains-biggest-bank-let-drug-gangs-launder-millions--faces-640million-fine.html
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/greek-debt-crisis-how-goldman-sachs-helped-greece-to-mask-its-true-debt-a-676634.html
http://www.globalresearch.ca/who-owns-the-federal-reserve/10489
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/feb/12/bigger-than-barclays-global-regulation
If none of these things - or any other of the many many scandals coming to light almost on a weekly basis now (like this one that surfaced yesterday) are enough to convince you that this isn't all fine and dandy or even incompetence, nothing will.
At some point, you will have to recognize all of this for what it really is: an inherently corrupt system.
I'm not just 'looking for a scapegoat'. In fact, I find that remark kind of insulting - it's obvious you're not taking anything I say seriously - or anything any of the sources I supply for that matter.
I am most certainly not getting lost in some 'echo-chamber'. Yes, I use the internet a lot - obviously. But if the Guardian, der Spiegel, the Economist are all part of some 'echo-chamber'... I... like... whatever.
Besides that, I actually read books on the issue. Currency wars and The Black Swan are very good - I think.
>you're trying to attribute poverty to a scapegoat. It's counterproductive, because the evidence does not support that hypothesis
Yeah, except for all of the evidence that I am supplying.
Sorry, this is kind of turning into a rant by now. Maybe we should just agree to disagree.
If you can't think of any reason, you haven't been looking at all. Impossible and improbable are not the same thing.
Some recommended reading.
Sounds familiar... are you referring to The Black Swan?
Here's a good book that has nothing to do with waterfowl but shares a name.
Agreed. A good follow-up to the Zimbardo book (a great read, btw!).
The Black Swan is also a good read in this vein: http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X.
"A couple dozen school shootings". You don't feel weird typing that?
Also how many of those under 14 died en route to school? Regardless, it's an issue and why school zones are implemented. and why parent-teacher associations and school districts try to hire more people to help kids cross safely near the school. Your entire argument makes no sense to me. Why have fire drills? How many schools burn down a year so whats the point, right? Not all unlikely things are given the same weight. In the case of preventable, violent murder of children, I think we can practice a bit to make sure less of them die? Don't you?
You should read the book 'Black Swan'. Here's the amazon link. Just read the little one paragraph blurb and you'll see how it's relevant to this.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb talks about a similar pattern in finance. I've read Black Swan and most of Skin in the Game- it's good stuff!
https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X
It's so good that your statistics override your common decency.
It's probably not cost effective to invest in addressing minority rights as well, because they are a minority... It's better to only care about people in the mainstream because that's where the bulk of public opinion lies. Right? Outliers are outliers - they don't have any human rights. The Black Swan
I agree with the Manual for Creating Atheists book. That is an excellent one. My shelf broke in one semester many years ago when I took my first statistics class. Literally in a flash I realized that anecdotes are NOT data. Mormons are fine but they aren't healthier, happier, less cancer ridden, less criminal, etc. than other similar demographics.
You may also find The Black Swan by Nasim Taleb an excellent book and I highly recommend it. I hand that one out like candy and it works very well at getting people to think about what they "think they know" in a different light. Its great to use books like that because they have nothing to do with religion but they really do open eyes.
Black Swan
The better question to ask is why do you need this in the first place? If you were playing good and running good your mental game would be fine. The only thing that affecting poker player results are playing bad or running bad. Playing bad can be fixed by analyzing hands, reading good poker books and training. The effects of running bad can be lessened by understanding probability and randomness better. Running bad shouldn't really be an issue if you are bank rolled properly because if it is, then you are playing bad.
Most poker players that I know that are always frustrated or constantly tilting are almost always playing at stakes their bankroll doesn't support.
If you are using the 100 times big blind and 25 buyins recommendation, you shouldn't really have a mental game issue because you should be able to absorb the variance.
Mental Game Books
More understanding about probability, randomness and focusing on the present can be helpful. If you understand those more it should help your mental game. I would recommend these books and at least understand their central points:
Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Just to fill out the list by throwing in some right / conservative ones:
And as an absolute must, you should read this:
Also, you'd understand these books more if you had a good foundation in economics and finance.
Someone is always going to argue against the common wisdom and be right. They are not geniuses, just lucky.
This Book should be required reading for anyone who relies on the opinion of "experts".
> Who?
http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X
> And yes. But that's just because that we can apply the Central Limit Theorem and assume the profits each day is normally distributed
> the central limit theorem (CLT) states that, given certain conditions, the arithmetic mean of a sufficiently large number of iterates of independent random variables, each with a well-defined expected value and well-defined variance, will be approximately normally distributed, regardless of the underlying distribution.
it's just a hunch, but models based on stuff like that might be the reason why the financial system is blowing up. When I read stuff like "independent random variables", the ludic fallacy (also from that book) comes to mind.
I can really recommend the book I linked above. Probably a good idea to write that thesis first, though ;)
> What do we mean by "complex systems"? As in complex-systems theory?
Yes, complex systems theory (the study of ecosystems, economies, chaotic systems, etc).
> Got a book you can recommend?
If you read one book by him, read Antifragile. The Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness are also good.
> You can suggest it in an open thread.
On /r/slatestarcodex or on the actual Slate Star Codex website?
> You can just tag him and see if he responds.
I tried this last time, but he didn't reply. Here it goes again: /u/EliezerYudkowsky
My favorite Black Swan
I recommend you read this book:
https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X/
The author of that book, a hedge-fund trader whose expertise is in calculating risk, says the chances of Trump winning are about 50% (in the video):
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/03/black-swan-author-nassim-taleb-you-dont-have-to-worry-about-a-trump-presidency.html
Sam Wang's model is an absolute joke.
Read, The Black Swan, because people flying airplanes into buildings is a problem that rarely happens...
There are several good books.
http://www.amazon.com/dp/1439164991/ <- the best. also
http://www.amazon.com/dp/0812975219/
http://www.amazon.com/dp/081297381X/
http://www.amazon.com/dp/0273731963/
http://www.amazon.com/dp/0375758259/
http://www.amazon.com/dp/0470393750/
Sure. It was widely accepted before the crash that the housing market would collapse some.
But can you predict the chain reaction caused by the bursting, and that this burst balloon will fly around the crowded room, gouging out eyes and causing disoriented people to stumble around, inadvertently crashing through windows and dragging their friends with them as they fall?
Read some of Taleb's work, even if you think he's a blowhard it should make you a bit more humble.
Here is the desktop version of your link
I love reading biographies, I find them more inspiring and enjoyable to read than self-help books. Currently I'm reading Benjamin Franklin: An American Life. I highly recommend this book to anyone, prior to this book I only knew what they taught us in History class, this explores so many more aspect of his life, some of which we can all relate to (like his constant drive to improve himself).
[Meditations by Marcus Aurelius] (http://www.amazon.com/Meditations-Thrift-Editions-Marcus-Aurelius/dp/048629823X) is another great book I just finished. Written by a former Roman emperor who ruled during the time of frequent war, disease, and natural disasters, it's about how he dealt with it all as a leader by following the stoic philosophy. Amazing book and helped changed my outlook on the world.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. This is one of those books that isn't geared to self-improvement, but to updating your view of the world. In it Taleb talks about how highly improbably events happen all the time, but we only see them as probable in hindsight. I think it's a great read since we tend to think in cause-and-effect ways, when in fact the world works more in a probabilistic way.
>Not now, but the first such study was certainly interesting! How is that different from what we have here?
The first such study was useful, but not interesting.
As to the difference between this paper and the first study linking exercise and heart disease, I see a couple relevant differences:
>The idea that we are solely responsible for our successes and failures already shapes social policy, so why wouldn't evidence for the contrary position do the same? At the very least, it should introduce more uncertainty and flexibility to evaluate specific circumstances.
In my view, the theory that luck has a strong effect on success and failure has already been well established in society. The proverb that "it's better to be lucky than good" is so old that no one knows how old it is. I don't believe that social policy is grounded in the theory that people are solely responsible for their own success or failure.
Hard engineering is ee, bio, Chem, and so on. Easy is mech, civ.
While I know of one guy who is a CS phd, generally I normally see the more applied math guys.
As for things to read. I think you should start at the beginning and not worry about job titles ... Everything will change a few times before now and when it will be your time...
Some fun reads:
The black swan
http://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/081297381X/ref=mp_s_a_1?qid=1348162692&amp;sr=8-2
The big short:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/0393338827/ref=mp_s_a_1?qid=1348163015&amp;sr=8-1
Read the E-Myth before you quit your job or invest any real money into starting a business: https://www.amazon.com/Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses-About/dp/0887307280
Read this book
The E-Myth teaches that in order to run a successful business you need to fill three roles:
In order to be successful, you need to be good at all three areas but the problem is that most people are only good at 2/3. Let's say, I can do the work (technician) and have the vision of where I want to be (visionary) BUT I can't focus enough on the plan to see it through...can't break it down to small manageable chunks. That's when I hire or partner with a manager. Someone that sees where you are going and helps you focus on taking care of the small things, so the big things can take care of themselves. I hope this helps because it helped me.
Source: first generation American with no idea how to start a business in this country. The E Myth definitely made me see things differently. I now own 2 businesses, one has been going for 6 years grossing 15k per month and the other we just launched back in January. The key was to figure out my strengths very early on and delegate the rest either by hiring or establishing a strategic partnership.
Might I recommend a book.
Glad you found it helpful! You may also want to check out:
This post is spot on. I feel like this kind of behavior is often overlooked in the community. Headlining these kind of excuses is a very common "anxiety of finishing things" (there is probably a psychological term for this that I don't know) that goes along with perfectionism.
What also comes into play is a theory from "The E-Myth Revisited" (big recommendation btw), where it says that many entrepreneurs are in fact technicians who love the work they do instead the act of running a business. As a technician from the graphics department you will love reading for hours about the perfect logo for your company and how to create it. What you need to do instead is think like a manager and pick any good logo real quick and launch.
So if you ever get lost in reading to much about stuff instead of doing it, ask yourself: "Is this technician in me? What would the manger do?". Do this over and over and eventually you will learn to act like the manager more than like the technician.
Now I'm asking myself if there are any reports of failed businesses because any of those excuses were actually true? Does anybody know any business that failed, because the owner wasn't passionate about it or because the market was already saturated but the owner didn't notice beforehand?
Second this. Also E-Myth Revisited. link
Fully agree. This book's an oldie but a goodie in terms of getting you thinking about process and automation in building a business: https://www.amazon.com/Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses-About/dp/0887307280
The E-Myth Revisited: https://www.amazon.com/Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses-About/dp/0887307280?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=0887307280&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;linkId=OKQNEFFPLTGGYABL&amp;redirect=true&amp;ref_=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl&amp;tag=writin08-20
Read this https://www.amazon.com/Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses-About/dp/0887307280 to see if it´s still a good idea for you. Do your research for your target market before jumping all in.
Start marketing asap: A website and building your online presence is a must. This one is a good one for one on one service: https://microbusinessapp.com or if you plan on selling a bunch of stuff online then https://www.shopify.com/ is good for selling a lot of stuff for shipping.
Use social media to start getting your brand name out there and just letting family and friends know you´re serious about starting your business they will help you get your name out there.
Use services that will help you automate your business where you may lack the skills: Some people use https://www.fiverr.com/ and the like to help when money is tight.
Have patience, be adaptable, roll with the punches and have fun!
Best of wishes on your new adventure!!
I think the trick is to read the book and allow the book to inspire you to create ideas for yourself. For example, I read "The E-Myth" which is somewhat crap if taken too seriously. But, it gets the ball rolling in my head and then I think of good ideas for making my own business better. I've also gain inspiration from "Influence, the science of persuasion."
As with any self help book, the value is in the inspiration. You have to come up with the idea then execute it. Ideas are easy, putting them into action is a pain.
http://www.amazon.com/Influence-Psychology-Persuasion-Revised-Edition/dp/006124189X
http://www.amazon.com/The-E-Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses/dp/0887307280
Don’t know, but it’s a popular book.
Amazon Link They also have an audiobook version
What Google Learned From Its Quest to Build the Perfect Team, NY Times - http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/magazine/what-google-learned-from-its-quest-to-build-the-perfect-team.html
One-On-One Meetings - https://getlighthouse.com/blog/how-to-start-one-on-ones-your-teams/
Growing Great Employees, Erika Andersen - http://www.amazon.com/Growing-Great-Employees-Extraordinary-Performers/dp/1591841909 (though I hate the stupid comparisons with plants)
The Year Without Pants, Scott Berkun - http://www.amazon.com/The-Year-Without-Pants-WordPress-com/dp/1118660633
The E-Myth Revisited, Michael E. Gerber http://www.amazon.com/The-E-Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses/dp/0887307280
Your job is to lead them, not to do the same job as them.
A person who starts a car company doesn't spend all day building cars. He/she figures out how to make both the company, and the employees, successful.
I'd highly suggest you check out a book call The E-Myth. It covers this topic extensively.
Don't have much input on your financial situation (other than as other people have mentioned, grow that business!), but may I suggest that you read a book like The e-Myth Revisited - Why Most Small Businesses Don't Work and What to Do About It by Michael Gerber.
It has some great advice for how to take a business of passion where you are an employee (like yours) from something that consumes your life to something that can enrich your life and increase your free time instead of taking all of it. It's a quick read, and your situation sounds like you could really use it's advice. I really want you to succeed!
I don't have any relationship to the book by the way, financial or otherwise, I just think it could help you, and it is a quick read so it wouldn't kill you with your schedule.
Edits were because I suck at reddit formatting.
The book the E-Myth does a good job at answering this question.
http://www.amazon.ca/The-E-Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses/dp/0887307280
About 10 years back I came across recommendations for an oddly-named book. It was a great read.
I never did start a business but if I had, I would have jumped from the sole do-everything person to a designer/manager/facilitator as soon as I could. One huge problem with a small business is success, which kills a lot of operations. How many 20-hour days can you work? What happens when you need to work 30-hour days and 9-day weeks to keep up?
From the PDF summary (below)...
> The E-Myth, or Entrepreneurial Myth, says that most new businesses are not started by entrepreneurs who set out to build a strong business but by technicians who enjoy the hands-on work themselves. Because of that natural bias, most business owners focus on working in their business when really they should be working on their business.
> A business that is built and managed by someone who combines the approach of the technician, the manager and the entrepreneur will have a far greater chance of future success than one guided by someone thinking like a technician alone.
References:
> [Michael Gerber](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Gerber_(non-fiction_writer) (Wikipedia)
> Michael E. Gerber Companies
> The E Myth: Why Most Businesses Don't Work and What to Do About It (Amazon)
> The E-Myth Revisited: Why Most Small Businesses Don't Work and What to Do About It (Amazon)
> Summary of "E-MythRevised" (PDF)
Any advice I'd give is better presented in this essential book: E-myth
e-myth revisited
ITT: A lot of people who could do with a read of The E-Myth Revisited.
The 33 Strategies of War
--------------
The E-Myth
----------------
Mastery
-----------------
Crucial Conversations
---------------------
Great Business Teams
---------------------
Power vs. Force
--------------------
Barbarians to Bureaucrats
----------------------
How to Win Friends & Influence People
---------------
The Hypomanic Edge
-----------------
The Law of Success
The E-Myth Revisited
https://www.amazon.com/Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses-About/dp/0887307280
Congratulations, your business is growing.
You need to systematize whatever it is you do. Stop blaming employees, start fixing what doesn't work.
Most small businesses don't work because their owner can't or won't share knowledge. Sit down, breathe and read this s .
Go read the book e-myth revisted RIGHT NOW.
It will answer all these questions, or more importantly. What you should do about all these questions. You'll quickly find that the skills need to run a welding shop are not at all related to the skills needed to do fabrication and repair jobs and most people suffer at the former.
1: Quote based on what makes sense for you, track the accuracy of the quotes and revisit to learn where you're over or under bidding. Don't race to the bottom, if you're this busy raise prices. Do it now.
2: Yes, you walk in or call them up and ask them if they have any work they are looking to sub out. Owning a successful business is a large portion of having good people and sales skills. Listen to them and find their pain points. Is it turn around time, quality of work, difficult jobs they can't/don't want to do (large pieces, small pieces, one-off, difficult alloys). Pick something you're good at and layout why it's better to go with you than to do it in house.
3: No clue, all my work was B2B or done through web portals. Probably doesn't hurt to spend a few hours on a nice clean website as it makes you look legit.
4. Common rule of thumb is that you shouldn't be extract more than 2-10% of net profit. That is highly dependent on way too many factors. As a data point my side business did about 150K a year in sales and I was extracting 5-15K in profit the rest was reinvested. Once you start getting big enough I highly suggest you get an SBA loan or similar for working capital so that you don't have cash flow issues.
5: Make sure your business insurance, liability, waivers and paperwork are in order. Get good legal and tax advice for your area so you don't have any surprises come tax time.
> Darwin Devolves (Behe) is currently the #1 best seller in developmental biology on Amazon and goes into detail on why random mutation and natural selection cannot account for the modern creation myth of "single cell to man"
Yeah...it's not.
As of right now, the #1 seller is The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility" (Incerto). Which just sounds...really boring...
The Kindle version is beat by this book about bees.
And I don't think a freebie should ever be considered a best seller.
And another note...I often just read /r/skeptic rather than participate, because participation (IMHO) should include links, sources, and well-reasoned arguments. That's cognitive processing, or "system 2" thinking, in Kahneman's language. Confirmation bias is less likely when we are using system 2 over system 1.
There are a variety of sources, but the first that comes to mind is Kahneman's recently published popular press book: http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374275637
It seems you asked the right questions, since my answer turned out longer than expected. I actually had to split it up, because of the character limitation. So I hope my effort is of benefit to you. In any case, you should probably get a hot chocolate or something. :-D
Question 1
I think there are several reasons, why people might make these arguments (Note that these are not refutations of the arguments themselves, but speculations about their psychological roots / motivations):
As for the validity of the arguments themselves, I don't think the criticisms of the first three groups are quite easily refuted. But the minarchists make some points about the nature of defense services that definitely need to be considered. (E.g. positive externalities lead to an underproduction of defense services, making an anarchist society vulnerable to conquest.) The only possibility of ancapism turning south is basically the emergence of new states and a resulting regression to statism. That process would obviously involve a lot of bloodshed and ancapism should therefore be avoided if a violent return to statism is inevitable. I'll provide some of my own thoughts why I consider that unlikely.
I think several factors play a role in the sustainability of "Ancapistan":
The education and enlightenment factor is likely to improve with time, so I do think the anarcho-capistalist society is inevitable. (Basically like marxists think communism is inevitable. I do see the irony there, lol.)
Once the whole world is anarchist, I see little reason to worry about the emergence of a new state. That being said, going back to statism would be the worst case scenario. So we're in the worst case scenario right now... and hence, it can only get better if we try.
If you want me to elaborate more, I'll gladly do that, but you can probably learn more from people smarter than me. I'll provide a book list further below and here is a great lecture on the specific topic. It's still a good idea to ask me any specific questions though.
Question 2
I haven't read anything by Ayn Rand. Her books are extremely long, so that's a turn-off. From what I've heard about her: I think her objectivist approach to ethics is both weird and wrong. However, her novels probably convey a good "sense" of capitalism. I have that already though, so I don't think I'm missing much. She might have been influencial in the sense that she has made many people familiar with ideas ancaps share. But her own ideology is statist in the sense that it actively supports a minarchist state and rejects ancapism on ethical grounds (as stated by Yaron Brook, the most prominent objectivist / follwer of Ayn Rand I know). I myself am much more of a fan of Murray Rothbard, which is basically the "founder" of anarcho-capitalism anyway. He's surely the most influencal person in the movement, Hans-Hermann Hoppe taking the controversial second place.
> Totesin vain että uskova ei ole täysin rationaalinen ihminen, joten hänen rationaalisuutensa kokonaisuutena on hyvä kyseenalaistaa.
On varmaan ihan hyvä kyseenalaistaa ihan kenen tahansa rationaalisuus, jos haetaan tyyppiä jonka ajatukset perustuvat ainoastaan kovaan päättelyyn ja faktoihin, sillä aikamoisilla arvailuilla tämä meidän pääkoppa toimii. Kirjallisuudeksi aiheesta suosittelen Daniel Kahnemanin kirjaa Thinkin, Fast and Slow, se on rahan ja ajan arvoinen teos.
> En tosin ymmärrä miten epärationaalisuus auttaa ymmärtämään muita ja itseään.
Ei usko näitä kahta poiskaan sulje. Toisten ymmärtämiseen riittää mullaisille ajatuksille altistuminen, mikä Suomessa kyllä tapahtuu luonnostaan kunhan ei eristäydy muusta maailmasta (mitä kyllä esiintyy, mutta ei ole yleistettävissä valtaosaan uskovista).
Toisaalta itsensä ymmärtämiseen ja yhtenäiseen maailmankuvaan juuri oman maailmankatsomuksen työstäminen ja opiskelu on hyödyllistä. Jos esimerkiksi tuon jutun nainen olisi ollut johdonmukainen ja oppinut kristitty, ei ennustajaeukko olisi voinut likaisuudella ihan kauheana pelotella saati myydä puhdistusta korkeaan hintaan. Tässä eräs tutkimus aiheen tiimoilta.
A really great book describing essentially these two systems is Thinking fast and slow by the psychologist Daniel Kahneman.
> (very
logicalintuitive) conclusionsFTFY. This is not to discount the rest of your post (I'm not addressing it), but just because something feels correct intuitively doesn't mean it is, and in this case I seriously doubt the people who came to this conclusion applied any strenuous mental arithmetic (logic/reason) to arrive at it. Rather, they applied some general heuristic and drew a conclusion from associations they'd previously made. This is why pieces of legislation are cleverly named with hard-to-oppose or hard-to-discuss names -- because such names cause people to make intuitive conclusions about it before applying any reason, and make opposition to it sound awful.
The Patriot Act, Affordable Care Act, No Child Left Behind -- opposition to any of these things, whatever the basis, triggers an intuitive conclusion in others based on the name and stated purpose of the piece of legislation. Someone opposing The Patriot Act for whatever reasons would just be seen as "wanting the terrorists to win". Someone opposing No Child Left Behind, for whatever issues they have with it, would be seen as "hating child education".
Someone opposing Affirmative Action would be seen as "being racist", but that's an intuitive conclusion which comes before you apply reasoning and investigate whether racial motivations have anything to do with it. And that's very much not logical.
I have to give thanks to Daniel Kahneman's research on human decision making for making me aware of these distinctions, and apologize to him for butchering it as I relay some of the concepts. He would call this intuitive, heuristic style of thinking "system 1 thinking", and slow mental arithmetic & reason "system 2 thinking".
I’m a pretty big inarticulate moron. If you’re actually interested, this book is really good and a very easy read: https://www.amazon.com/Never-Split-Difference-Negotiating-Depended/dp/0062407805
Okay, so I think you have a few options here.
The rolling is a phase and no matter you approach, I think it just sucks for a while until she has better control over her body.
This is the classic E-myth story: http://www.amazon.ca/The-E-Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses/dp/0887307280
Please read this book to educate yourself on why this is incorrect: https://www.amazon.com/Factfulness-Reasons-World-Things-Better/dp/1250107814
you can know your shit too!
http://www.amazon.com/The-Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions/dp/159420411X
You may want to check out Algorithms to Live by.
It goes into practical examples of complex problems that mathematicians and programmers have solved. It reads somewhat like a philosophy book if that will help you.
> Logic and facts
Something else you may like in this journey: Thinking Fast and Slow
My impression is that as much as we idealize rationality, "reasoning" in practice always takes place within some emotional context; there is always a reason or objective for why we are trying to make a rational argument, and such context will always influence the shape of our rationality in some way.
That may just sound like "bias", but the idea is presented in a more thought-provoking and humanist way.
YOU ARE NOT AN ENTREPRENEUR.
Please, Read the E-Myth:
http://www.amazon.com/E-Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses-About/dp/0887307280/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1251200958&amp;sr=8-1
Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About the World — and Why Things Are Better Than You Think, coauthored with his son, Ola Rosling, and daughter-in-law, Anna Rosling Rönnlund.
Quality on life is, on average, increasing all over the world.
Some things are getting worse, and for certain people life is shit, but on average humanity is better off than ever.
I really recommend book called Factfullness.
Vamos escrever mais uma vez já que o camarada leu e não compreendeu: não há formas de determinar se este desenvolvimento seria superior ou inferior ao atual sem especulação. Você está fazendo exatamente o que tenta criticar ironicamente ao copiar minha frase, especulando à favor de seu posicionamento político, o que é natural, mas não deixa de ser um erro que deve ser reconhecido e corrigido por si mesmo.
Historicamente o ser humano é péssimo em fazer previsões para o futuro baseado em seu pequeno conhecimento de mundo, devido à predisposições e a nossa deficiência de pensar estatisticamente. Goste você ou não isso é um fato, se quiser aprender mais sugiro a leitura Thinking, Fast and Slow do Daniel Kahneman, psicólogo que ganhou um Nobel de economia.
&#x200B;
Aguardando os downvotes da ignorância seletiva.
offhand probably not enough to be definitive.
but here are some:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3807005/
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/calling-truce-political-wars/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biology_and_political_orientation
I can't find the one with the %s but generally 'accepted' fact that in the US there is ~30% liberal and ~30% conservative and ~60% in the "middle" (I'd argue they are really more evenly split than that, but that is the old %s at least.)
Edit: there is some really good books describing how to USE this type of knowledge to your own benefit https://www.amazon.com/Art-Deception-Controlling-Element-Security/dp/076454280X/ Among many others.
The current military industrial complex will never change in the U.S. The control is a geographical necessity to support the USA's existing hegemony. I wish these kind of posts about military spending would stop.
This book provides a good overview of global foreign policy, especially the USA. The future stuff may seem far fetched, but given our current information it would seem reasonable.
http://www.amazon.com/Next-100-Years-Forecast-Century/dp/0767923057/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1290004768&amp;sr=8-1
Naval control and political power:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Thayer_Mahan
Hey mate, i just read the first 2 paragraphs and I instantly recommend you read the book "The E - Myth Revisited" http://www.amazon.com/The-E-Myth-Revisited-Small-Businesses/dp/0887307280
Im in the process of drawing up a business plan for a food service vehicle dishing up fruit and juice to customers along busy beaches. I have no business experience although this book has given me a lot of confidence to move forward. I hope this helps.
My full quote was:
>why the media is using a picture of a 12 year old vs. a more recent picture.
No need to look, it's my own hypothesis as he looks 12 vs. what he looked like more recently. Pictures available side by side here.
Finally, effective propaganda, especially in press and television will never be anything grandiose where people will have a GOTCHA moment. It's always subtle, hinting, nudging and anchoring. If you are really interested in that topic an excellent (and recent) book I highly recommend.
The first one: it was racist until obama requested the same thing for a different case for the exact same reason. Then the articles stopped flowing.
The other two are regressive sites nit picking small phrases to create their bubbles of fear. Taking someone out of context, or simply applying the labels 'racist, sexist, etc' to something still dont make it true.
When discussing mexico and the wall, it is about the cartels and the effect they have. If we, as a nation were to build a wall and legalize pot we would shut them down, lower our crime, better our economy and help the already nationalizing mexico muster itself into full gear for the powerhouse they could be on the international stage. Hell, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ezaw-g6TIQI this is no new topic. Read: https://www.amazon.com/Next-100-Years-Forecast-Century/dp/0767923057
As for the muslims, the talk is about people from war torn areas, who have been through the worst, and are affected in ways that anyone would be. Couple that with some being raised to hate those they are coming to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi_Arabian_textbook_controversy and you have a powder keg that is currently churning in europe.
I argue semantics because the full conversation is not about race, but about the safety of us all. Let us not forget Cologne Germany so soon, or the long standing effects of the war on drugs and the cartels both domestically and abroad.
"after I gave him my password" Read this...
I like this one much more http://www.amazon.com/The-Next-100-Years-Forecast/dp/0767923057 . America will end, but not simply be destroyed or become a dictatorship, but rather be absorbed into a global government. I personally think the rise of the UN is inevitable.
You may like this book by Thomas Nagel: https://www.amazon.com/Mind-Cosmos-Materialist-Neo-Darwinian-Conception/dp/0199919755/
He describes the unity of the self as something so obviously true that materialism can't be true.
Use the money you made trading to educate yourself about how the big scheme of things works: https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X
There are so many flaws in your logic it's staggering, I feel like I read something by a kid who, after taking one class in a business school, thinks he knows how markets work.
This sub is very hostile to opinions and information they disagree with. A general sign of low education/intelligence/strong system 1 control
I know you're kind of joking/light-hearted, which is why I've chosen to respond to you.
Winning a super bowl in your first year as a head coach is obviously a strong indication that you're going to be a good coach. However, there are coaches who have won Super Bowls and then been proven to be less than great coaches in the NFL. Barry Switzer, Don McCafferty, Jon Gruden, Pete Carroll (?), Mike Ditka...All won a single super bowl. None of them have an amazing coaching legacy. Pete Carroll's is still undecided. I guess Gruden's technically is too.
Doug Pederson seems like a really good coach to me. However, there's no way there's enough information on him yet to say that he's a net positive reflection on Andy Reid's coaching tree.