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http://www.amazon.com/The-Intelligent-Investor-Definitive-Investing/dp/0060555661

This was one of those books that really got me thinking - there's a few more that come to mind ... Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits.

All of these books basically center around how to decouple emotion from the act of investing; hence, why these books are still powerful decades after being first published.

Sounds like you're not going out on the streets because of this - which is great. But, it sounds like you're kicking yourself in the butt (which you really shouldn't.) I recall the dot com glory days. I was in grad school, using this brand new website called e-trade and investing in all the companies whose products I used (sandisk, etc). Just making bank (on paper), it felt great. I thought that I understood the mechanics of the market but when things began to go sideways for me - I too hodl'ed.

Out from the ashes comes the phoenix... So take this as a learnable moment. Mine cost me dearly as well (sounds like more actually - if that helps ;-) ), but from the most expensive of all teachers (experience) I did walk away with new tools. So when fresh opportunities arose, I was in a better position to analysis, understand, and control myself to take fuller advantage of these gems...

Personally I think that we are really just beginning to see the power behind bitcoin and would suggest hodling. I'm sure that many will say that's a bad idea (perhaps so.) I'd also recommend paying off everything as quickly as possible and stopping any/all future trades - at least until such time that you feel more confident and comfortable in doing so. I feel that any further trades may result in compounding these feelings of dread and you may also regret them in the (long term) future.

Putting this aside to give yourself time to recalibrate is probably best.

For candles I really like the overview on Incredible Charts.

Investopedia is a great resource for pretty much anything related to trading. Many people also recommend BabyPips for learning the basics.

I don't have any books recs from personal experience, though I see Random Walk Down Wall Street and The Black Swan recommended around here often.

Trying stuff out on a chart yourself is often the best teacher. Check out cryptowat.ch for basic tools and tradingview.com for more advanced stuff.

Good luck!

In those silent days I recommend everyone to do some proper reading of trading books. If I had started with those 6 years ago when I bought my first BTC I would have done so much better. It's quite facsinating how the stock market in 1900 or commodities market in the 1970s is basically the same like crypto now. The same "manipulation" or "coin X will do 10X" memes was also then

I can recommend the Market Wizard series by Jack Schwager, Trading in the zone, Turtle Traders (good for crypto trending markets) and of course my favorite about emotions, biology and trading that helped me a lot the last 1 year https://www.amazon.com/Hour-Between-Dog-Wolf-Transforms/dp/0143123408

Then also some books about poker mentality(you need to love to lose :D http://jaredtendlerpoker.com/mentalgameofpoker/ ), some behaviour economics and general risk from like Richard Thaler(when I finally understood loss aversion vs gains, wow!) and Nicholas Naseem Taleb are great openers to a lot of more academic material

Wow some people here taking profits with an all time high breakout after nice bullish consolidation + Segwit.

Immediately go to Amazon and buy this book or you won't be a millionaire on this crypto bull market.

https://www.amazon.com/Reminiscences-Stock-Operator-Commentary-Livermore/dp/0470481595/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1501913482&sr=1-3&keywords=Reminiscences+of+a+Stock+Operator

Yes, buy the hard cover cheapo's.

Why hello csasker. Hope you're doing well.

I'm enjoying the book you suggested. Happy easter :).

I think the conversation is much bigger than I have time to go into, but I think the CC market is where the beer market was in the beginning of the 20th century. We're about to discover a beer that all of us are satisfied by that is cheap to make at scale. An oligopoly will continue until there are clear and practical advantages to one product over another in the marketplace.

See https://www.amazon.com/U-S-Brewing-Industry-Economic-Analysis/dp/0262201518

Please do not pay for anything. All public information is available to you to trade successfully. Before going through any course online, I recommend this book.

https://www.amazon.com/Reminiscences-Stock-Operator-Commentary-Livermore/dp/0470481595

I also wrote a few bitcoin articles on trading on my blog.

> I started trading after weeks of reading documentation/watching videos about the basics of any FOREX market, technical analysis and fundamental analysis etc.

After you've been trading longer you will realize that 99% of all that stuff you've read is wrong and written by people that don't trade for a living. When you can sort the 1% that's real out of the other 99% written by "professionals" you can consider yourself at least a novice trader.

I started trading the dot com bubble in the late 90's and did quite well for about 3 years. Then a bear market arrived and I realized two things:

1. I'm really NOT a genius.
   
2. This time it's NOT different.
   
   Edit: If you haven't read it yet, you should read Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. It's useful and very entertaining as well. It is just as relevant today as when it was first published in 1923!

Bit of a tall order.

Long term dependence. With brownian motion each change is independent of the past, like tossing a fair coin. With FBM the past matters, and this is the case with time series such as prices (e.g. stock markets), weather, power usage, vehicle/computer network traffic, etc. The long price series of bear and bull markets don't fit the statistical pattern of pure random walk.

With weather you see it as N concurrent years of drought or floods, where a drought one year is predictive of a drought the following year. It's been years since I've thought about this, but the best introduction I know of is:

The Misbehavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence

Oh, also the price change distribution (e.g. daily, weekly, whichever) is not gaussian for price series, which it obviously would be for gaussian random noise. The distributions are spiky with fat tails, mathematically it's an alpha levy I think.

Some good links here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional_Brownian_motion

See the Dieker, T. paper.

Back in the day the Black-Scholes formulae for option pricing ignored all of this, which is why it didn't work and was later adjusted, but Mandelbrot was fairly critical of the 'hacks' made if memory serves.

Longer, but Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is great.

TA is like trying to paint of picture of how gravity works instead of defining it fundamentally with math. Get yourself a copy of The Intelligent Investor if you want to develop a proven investing framework.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Lucas_Jr.

further reading: https://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/0812975219/ref=pd_sim_14_2/133-0444399-0427912?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=0812975219&pd_rd_r=20G8KZ7HRQTB9EV8KRMF&pd_rd_w=QI4pT&pd_rd_wg=y8262&psc=1&refRID=20G8KZ7HRQTB9EV8KRMF

further further reading: the actual explanation of "black swan" that is starting to show up in crypto but totally incorrectly, and more importantly is the type of event that destroys TA https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X

Random Walk down Wall Street, I think this is a working PDF. site.iugaza.edu.ps/wdaya/files/2013/03/A-Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Street.pdf He presents one of many solutions to dealing w/ market randomness and how to invest, so you don't have to buy his solution. But the applicable part to TA is he's got several chapters reviewing TA specifically, and it's pretty damning.

Read it, don't be lazy, there is also a free PDF download out there.

exactly right - I think rather than random walk OP could leverage the phrase " SIDEWAYS MARKET "

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sidewaysmarket.asp

aside: there is a funny book along the same vein as A random walk down Wall street called "Where are the customers yachts?"

http://www.amazon.com/Where-Are-Customers-Yachts-Street/dp/0471770892

> For example, statistically, chances are that I'm making the same decision as the "average trader" which would inherently mean the market is going to respond in the opposite direction as we the average traders thought. Is it is simple as that?

There's a lot of truth to this, and it's actually not simple at all. The economist Keynes gives us the concept of the "Keynesian beauty contest":

> Keynes described the action of rational agents in a market using an analogy based on a fictional newspaper contest, in which entrants are asked to choose the six most attractive faces from a hundred photographs. Those who picked the most popular faces are then eligible for a prize.

> A naive strategy would be to choose the face that, in the opinion of the entrant, is the most handsome. A more sophisticated contest entrant, wishing to maximize the chances of winning a prize, would think about what the majority perception of attractive is, and then make a selection based on some inference from his knowledge of public perceptions. This can be carried one step further to take into account the fact that other entrants would each have their own opinion of what public perceptions are. Thus the strategy can be extended to the next order and the next and so on, at each level attempting to predict the eventual outcome of the process based on the reasoning of other rational agents.

So at any given moment in the market, you have traders who are thinking "the price is going to do this", then you have others thinking "a lot of newbs are thinking the price is going to do this", and still others are at the level of "some of the traders are thinking that there are a lot of newbs who think the price is going to do this", etc.

In general, the two emotions that will lose you the most money are panic and FOMO. Once the stampede starts, you're already too late to take advantage of the situation, but that won't stop people from panicking and FOMOing into the market at the worst possible time.

Finally, the mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot (the creator of fractal geometry) studied price movements, as price charts have many fractal qualities. Mandelbrot's opinion is that charting is astrology and his research has made a strong argument that there is no reliable method for determining the future price of an asset: the mathematical properties of price movement are essentially indistinguishable from random events. His book, the Misbehavior of Markets, is written for a general audience and expands on this idea and shows how economists have started to come around to that fact after numerous crashes and financial crises have shown that the major financial institutions are grossly underestimating their risk.

If you are mainly concerned with technical analysis I can recommend this book - http://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/0137059442 just remember most of bitcoin trading is sentiment based!

While I like the idea of this, I fear you're wrong, corporations aren't 'falling' and failing to see this, they have the money and the influence to continue to control.

Though, if you haven't already, you should read -

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singularity_Is_Near

As well as -

http://www.amazon.com/How-Became-Posthuman-Cybernetics-Informatics/dp/0226321460

Benoit Mandelbrot used a form of very long term TA using fractal analysis to some success in his experiments that led to the book "The (Mis)behavior of Markets". Modern finance with it's bell curves can't explain things like the 1987 stock market crash or the 2008 financial crisis. It fails at identifying kurtosis risk. TA isn't perfect, but neither is modern finance.

So, yes. There is nothing empirical on a long enough time scale for TA. But there is also nothing empirical about modern finance on a long enough time scale, either. It's really as simple as that.

What I Learned Losing a Million Dollars
by Jim Paul

I recently read this book and found out extremely insightful. It makes the case that ego can really be the downfall of most traders. And gives great advice on how to avoid it.

Please stop everything you are doing (in life) and read this book. https://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/0812975219

if you read this book: https://www.amazon.de/dp/B07BFWC4JG/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1 you know a lot more.

https://www.amazon.com/Irrational-Exuberance-Robert-J-Shiller/dp/0767923634

You should read

"The misbehaviour of markets: A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin and Reward" By Mandelbrot.

No.

Sure could simulate a bunch of possibilities, but that will just give you a distribution of possibilities. i.e. "Up, down, or sideways".

> Could someone bother to explain the possibilities?

https://www.amazon.com/Chaos-Making-Science-James-Gleick/dp/0143113453