(Part 2) Top products from r/CryptoCurrency

This is better than buying and praying but be wary of many factors when designing a trading system.

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1. Overfitting: When you are backtesting any strategy, there is a danger of overfitting the dataset. A more appropriate way to model this is to separate your data into training and test sets. Then you design your system using the training dataset, then test the performance against the test set. I like to randomly sample the historical data or randomly generate data that has a similar shape to make sure that I'm not overfitting.
   
2. Tax: If you haven't included the tax drag on your investment strategy, you could see the real returns be negative. For example, if I hold a token for over 12 months in the US, my tax rate is half (around 20%) of what I would pay for a short-term gain (nearly 40%). If you are trading in a taxable account, this can be ruinous. If you're trading in a Roth or other tax-free (deferred) account, go nuts!
   
3. Market slippage: You'll frequently find that you cannot enter the market exactly at the market close. Luckily in cryptos you don't have to worry about overnight gaps, but just because the historical data shows a closing price is no guarantee that you can fill your orders at that price. What is the gap between your bid-ask spread? What is the depth of the order book at each day's close?
   
4. Psychology: Unless you are a sociopath, you won't follow your strategy perfectly. You'll sell too early or buy too late, even if your technical indicators are correct.
   
5. Transaction Costs: Every transaction in the crypto space carries a significant cost with it. It can be .25% or more. With a 10-day moving average, you will be trading frequently and those fees will accumulate.
   
6. Risk Management: How large of a position will you allocate to ETH? What do you do when you have a market that tanks overnight, bypassing your stop-losses? How much are you willing to risk on a specific signal?
   
   Be careful. What you have discovered is valuable, but if it were that easy, everyone would be doing it. It doesn't mean it can't be done, but identifying a buy/sell signals is only 5% of your trading system.
   
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   If you are interested in developing these types of systems as a career, consider reading Quantitative Trading: How to Build Your Own Algorithmic Trading Business by Ernest P. Chan. It's an excellent starting point for building trading systems.
   
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   https://www.amazon.com/Quantitative-Trading-Build-Algorithmic-Business/dp/0470284889
   
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   I have made all of these mistakes and more over the past 10 years as a professional investor. I love this stuff, so I'm happy to answer any questions you guys have about your systems. Maybe I can help save you a little pain and suffering!

Yes the karma system was invented to protect crypto traders from getting idle hands from evil rumor spreaders like me.

What a fucking self aggrendizing and delusional thought.

If you were interested in real financial advice you wouldn't be reading this subreddit, the dumbest place have found yet on the internet for cryptonews. Even 4chan/biz is better because they don't downvote bad news and signals.

If you wan't to get out of the fomo/fud mill go read a book ( you should thank me for this advice ):

https://www.amazon.com/Reminiscences-Stock-Operator-Edwin-Lefèvre/dp/0471770884

Also go help your local community or pledge a percentage of your income. Jesus you guys are fucking navel gazing.

Go look at the charts we are heading downwards and selling and buying in again is NOT BAD ADVICE right now.

We just passed the 128 MA that we have been ABOVE SINCE 2016 for gods sake. Over 2 years ago and at that time we entered long term bear market.

Just giving you guys free advice and you get all sad and angry and vengeful.

I like the word "forging" as an alternative to "mining" as it implies creating something new rather than finding something that is already there. I think at least one crypto uses this term, but I don't remember which now.

For a guide on naming things well (and consistently) I highly recommend Metaphors We Live By, which completely changed how I think about language.

I'd say get both these books, the technical details are very good and they're both very well written.


Mastering Bitcoin


Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Technologies


And take this free online class based on the second book I recommended:
https://www.coursera.org/learn/cryptocurrency/

I can't recommend it - at all. I often look at the 1-star reviews on Amazon to see who really hates a book or product. Gives me a more nuanced look at it. Author seems to be a kook.

How about America's Bank: The Epic Struggle to Create the Federal Reserve. An exhausting, if dry and even boring, look a how the Fed was created. But at least it appears to be fact-based, and based on contemporary accounts at the time. The author spends a lot of time on the politics of how the Fed came about, and less time on more interesting topics, like: What is money? What else does a central bank do? Is crypto going to burn it all down?

There's a lot of paranoia about central banks. But they clearly have smoothed out the boom and bust cycles that used to plague this country. Apparently, the US was one of the last Western countries to adopt a central bank. I know, they are not perfect: see the Great Depression of the 30s, and the Minor Depression of 2008. But we would miss the Fed if it was gone.

Banks and cryptos are going to co-exist for a long time together. Frothing against bankers is understandable, even necessary, especially over the more egregious issues. But let's not forget that banks, and the central banks, of large, developed, technically sophisticated countries, play an important role in helping make everything run.

These are classics:

• Numerology and the Divine Triangle
  
  
• Numbers and You: A Numerology Guide for Everyday Living

https://www.amazon.com/Sovereign-Individual-Mastering-Transition-Information/dp/0684832720

Good read. May change your view.
It is David vs Goliath.

I read "Digital Gold." Would highly recommend, as well as "This Machine Kills Secrets." Both fantastic exploratory introduction works to the community by top-notch, easy-to-understand journalists who turn the crypto revolution into the fascinating, potentially world-changing story that it is through their writing.

• Digital Gold: Bitcoin and the Inside Story of the Misfits and Millionaires Trying to Reinvent Money https://www.amazon.com/dp/006236250X/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_yHSqzb7NB84J0

• This Machine Kills Secrets: Julian Assange, the Cypherpunks, and Their Fight to Empower Whistleblowers https://www.amazon.com/dp/0142180491/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_7HSqzbMTVSMFP

Maybe people are just downvoting the idea of selling the coin right now for another because it is a bad idea. It should be very strong until after Feb. 26. Sometimes crowds are just right.

https://www.amazon.com/DragonX-Innosilicon-Machine-Bitcoin-Required/dp/B07ZHRGKCS/ref=pd_sbs_147_6/141-1933378-9682538?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=B07Y2JPWHY&pd_rd_r=892116f2-e1ed-4795-b0ce-93e662a1d92c&pd_rd_w=GZOx2&pd_rd_wg=uCyEi&pf_rd_p=5873ae95-9063-4a23-9b7e-eafa738c2269&pf_rd_r=Q8WVKNGD7FVVQ9KSCJRM&refRID=Q8WVKNGD7FVVQ9KSCJRM&th=1

He co-authored Mastering Ethereum https://www.amazon.com/Mastering-Ethereum-Building-Smart-Contracts/dp/1491971940

https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640

Evidence Based Technical Analysis

I did.

Check these out...

Mastering the Trade

Chart School

Pivot Points

TA - Fibonacci

In light of his early years in WWII, and his subsequent rise to power and wealth, he fits eerily into the vampire plot of Carrion Comfort.

The author also wrote The Terror, currently a miniseries on AMC, and the Hyperion Cantos, btw.

https://www.amazon.com/100-Best-Internet-Stocks-Own/dp/0071357254

I own this book. Want to see the other graphs that aren't amazon?

Here is the text that describes Kurzweil's vision. It is the only book I've ever read twice (besides the Bible, but I was confused then). I really suggest you pick it up - if money is an obstacle feel free to pm me your address and I'll send you a copy.

If you can pick up a copy of Bill Stallings (Willian Stallings) book on a torrent somewhere you'll be in a good starting spot.

https://www.amazon.ca/Computer-Security-Principles-Practice-4th/dp/0134794109/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1549406283&sr=8-1&keywords=computer+security+principles+and+practice

Or buy it on amazon if you have extra cash.

You're just not discounting your cash versus the risk your taking on, you'll probably go to prison for stealing what are now seen as assets by governments. 1 million dollars to go to prison versus 10 Million? One million doesn't seem like so much if you lose it all and go to the pen for 10-15 years.

That's if you get caught of course, but high-end criminals factor that into their equations.