(Part 2) Top products from r/MLS

In case you haven't read it yet, Scorecasting speaks to this problem, as well as a number of others. I.e. applying economic theory and statistical analysis to a lot of common-sense notions in sports.

MLS is in a bit of an odd position -- partly because of its rigid economics, partly because of its age, and partly because of its still small footprint in the US sports landscape.

In particular, there is little correlation between salary and on-field success, although this is a lot harder to quantify than the linked analysis implies.

One question Scorecasting tries to address is the importance of the 'star' player -- think of it as a proxy for a DP. The conclusion is that in a game with a lot of players (e.g. NFL), a single star is rarely enough to make a team.

Obviously there are exceptions -- the Colts without Peyton Manning are terrible, for example. On the other hand, Joe Gibbs' Redskins won three Super Bowls with three different QBs, none of whom are hall-of-famers.

In contrast, an NBA team more or less needs a star player to even attempt to be competitive. One player has a much bigger impact among five starters than among 22 (plus special teams).

I think one can quantify what a DP means to a team, but one has to do it in a different way. For example: what's the difference in goal differential one can expect per game from a top-flight DP?

Or to put it another way, what is the plot of expected goal differential per game vs salary for a DP?

I don't know how realistic a calculation this would be, but I bet you could arrive at some numbers -- e.g. Beckham is worth +0.5, Henry is worth +0.3, Marquez is worth -0.2 (a DP with a minus rating is terrible).

All the same, there's this fact: a correlation between salary spending and consistent on-field results is only strong in unconstrained leagues. And always with caveats, exceptions, and outliers.

The Yankees are a consistently competitive team, and are consistently the highest spenders. On the other hand, the Orioles are consistently among the highest spenders and have been a terrible team for over a decade.

Man U are consistently among the highest spenders in the EPL, and are the most consistently successful team; Liverpool are also regularly near the top of the spend table and, let's face it, have seen a lot better days.

All the same, these are unconstrained leagues. If you look at the NFL (in a CBA year), there is not much of a relationship between spending and success. The Cowboys are consistently at the top of the spend scale, but when have they last won a Super Bowl? When have they last been in one?

The salary cap in MLS is even more extreme. And one could argue that weakness at one position is not balanced out by strength at another -- e.g. if your right center back is terrible, you'll give up more goals than your DP attacking mid will create for you.

Or in other words: Do DPs matter? Yes. Are they important? Yes. How important are they? I don't know.

But I do think it's possible to quantify what a DP should be worth at a given salary in terms of extra goals per game, and therefore possible to quantify whether that DP is living up to expectations.

But as for drawing up the specific equations, I'll leave that to someone else.

tl;dr: If you like thinking about this kind of questions, read Scorecasting. And throw Soccernomics on your list as well. And as a side-note: I love this forum for having discussions like this one. Keep it up.

Bloody Confused!: A Clueless American Sportswriter Seeks Solace in English Soccer -- The book for the novice soccer fan. It explains how one can get caught up in the sport even if they deride it or have no history with it. Amazon: After covering the American sports scene for fifteen years, Chuck Culpepper suffered from a profound case of Common Sportswriter Malaise. He was fed up with self-righteous proclamations, steroid scandals, and the deluge of in-your-face PR that saturated the NFL, the NBA, and MLB. Then in 2006, he moved to London and discovered a new and baffling world—the renowned Premiership soccer league. Culpepper pledged his loyalty to Portsmouth, a gutsy, small-market team at the bottom of the standings. As he puts it, “It was like childhood, with beer.”

The Ball is Round: A Global History of Soccer -- Be warned this book can be mistaken as a blunt object. One of the most global histories I've ever read. If you like information about how world soccer got to where it is now, I highly recommend this book. Amazon: In this extraordinary tour de force, David Goldblatt tells the full story of soccer's rise from chaotic folk ritual to the world's most popular sport-now poised to fully establish itself in the USA. Already celebrated internationally, The Ball Is Round illuminates soccer's role in the political and social histories of modern societies, but never loses sight of the beauty, joy, and excitement of the game itself.

Long-Range Goals: The Success Story of Major League Soccer -- Amazon: From the league’s formation in 1993 to the David Beckham era, this book reveals all the action on and off the pitch: the politics, the lawsuits, the management of its teams, and the savvy business deals that helped MLS rebound. It also revels in the big personalities of its stars, the grace of its utility players, and the obstacles the league faces in meeting its long-range goals.

Corner Offices & Corner Kicks -- Amazon: The Bethlehem Steel soccer team of 1907-30 and the New York Cosmos of 1971-85 were very much alike in a number of ways beyond their status as the two greatest soccer teams the United States has ever produced. The most important way that they are alike is that both were owned by major corporations, which is the exception in professional sports, and both experienced the benefits and the pitfalls of corporate ownership. Here are the stories of these two teams, and in particular the roller-coaster rides that their ownership situations sent them on.

I used to be director of coaching for a small youth soccer organization that included a rec program and education for people in your exact situation. Here's a couple of my recommendations:

• Definitely take the F to help you learn the basics. Don't bother with the E for a couple years unless you're really loving coaching.
  
• Get this book. The biggest take-away is that soccer IS NOT a kicking game. It is a ball control game (and space control for older ages 10+).
  
• Your biggest priority (especially for kids under 10) is to help kids love soccer so much that they want to play outside of structured practice time.
  
• Get size 1 mini balls to use with kids under 7. Size 3 - and heaven forbid size 5 - are just too big for the size of their feet and legs.

Seems like a lot of effort to show something that should be completely obvious to anyone with half a brain...

>Wikipedia cites this famous logical illusion as the best illustration of what cognitive scientists call "The Conjunction Fallacy."

> Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.

> Which is more probable?

> Linda is a bank teller.
> Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.

This is from Thinking, Fast and Slow

Very cool that you're doing this. I did a cross-country trip of Canada and the US this past summer with soccer as a secondary reason, and was able to hit up a few Copa America Centenario games (Chicago, Philly, and Foxborough) and MLS games (Montreal, Vancouver, and Columbus.) Happy to provide any help if you want. I would also check out this book (https://www.amazon.com/Dont-Care-Never-Get-Back/dp/0802123767) if you have the time. It's about a man who planned a road trip to see all 30 baseball stadiums in 30 days. Its humor helped me a lot when I was feeling overwhelmed by the road

Wow that's pretty ridiculous haha. Heres a link to some of the stuff I'm talking about. Toronto scarf for $3.31. Hopefully its the same price for you on Canadian amazon

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B06XJ3RTSM/

Great post.

Colin Jose is another resources although he's more into the statistics (tables) versus explaining a narrative: http://thisiscosmoscountry.com/?p=1346

http://www.amazon.com/American-Soccer-League-Colin-Jose/dp/0810834294

http://www.amazon.com/Colin-Jose/e/B001K80UCE/ref=ntt_athr_dp_pel_1/191-5369569-6802463

Wangerin should be read with an open, critical mind. It is a good book, and you should consider his perspective as an American and that the pre NASL work focuses primarily on the east coast.

For example in the Pacific NW historically there may have been more British influence too (Columbia District/Oregon Territory/54-40 or Fight dynamic before the US swallowed it up to the 49th parallel). From the 1800-1900's there was more Scottish influence and leagues around the Puget Sound of rugby and association codes (those regional leagues not worth really discussing other than St Louis because they'd play for the US Open Cup). What other areas, or parts of the conversation were missed in the review of newspaper articles? What biases did/do newspapers (the mainstream/popular media of the time) have? With questions like this in mind, Wangerin is a good starting point.

Remember history is written by the victors, and it is a story.

There is a fantastic coffee table book of the greatest NY Post headlines called, "Headless Body in Topless Bar"

The puns are fully owned by the Post and Daily News. They're so painful most of the time!

https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/0061340715/

I had to read a book on the history of Salt for a history class in highschool. Fascinating subject, covered everything from how access to salt shaped societal and civilizational development to salt being used as a currency to how techniques for gathering/creating salt developed over time.

http://www.amazon.com/Salt-World-History-Mark-Kurlansky/dp/0142001619 I recommend it.

I've heard it said that the best way to fix corruption in FIFA is to ditch Addidas for Puma. Actually, he said it was probably the only way. The author of ... hang a sec ... Declan Hill

Supporters Sections need to do full "Honoring WW2 vets" with the same anti-nazi propaganda the government was putting out.

We beat them before we will beat them again

X marks the spot

MLB 53.9%

NHL 55.7%

NFL 57.3%

NBA 60.5%

MLS 69.1%

Baseball is actually even better. The conclusion of the economists who wrote Scorecasting is that proximity to the crowd is a major factor. NHL has the glass and MLB the nets as well as outfield fans being extremely far away from the umpire. Additionally, MLB has the most scrutinized refs in any sport due to their use of technology. What would explain how the same umpire magically makes more accurate calls when he knows he is being double checked by strikezone technology?

To add, there's a book/movie (with Shia LeBouf before he got weird) about an amateur winning the 1913 US Open

https://www.amazon.com/Greatest-Game-Ever-Played-Francis/dp/0786888008

Also, keep in mind Bobby Jones never went pro and was the first to win the Quadralateral (precursor to the Grand Slam). He won the Open a couple of times.

Tony Romo has tried to make the Open a couple times, but has fallen short.

My Dad missed qualifying by one stroke at Baltusrol. That would've been cool

This might be a good read for you: https://www.amazon.com/Tom-Byers-Soccer-Starts-Home-ebook/dp/B01EHNLM5C

Vietnam veterans getting spit on has largely been debunked as a myth. Most people take it as true because Rambo said it in First Blood.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/press_box/2000/05/drooling_on_the_vietnam_vets.html

There is a whole book about it. http://www.amazon.com/The-Spitting-Image-Memory-Vietnam/dp/0814751474

False Start: How the New Browns Were Set Up to Fail

That's the Amazon link. You can get it in hard copy or Kindle.

How could he resist working with the co-author of Stay Cool, a Polar Bear's Guide to Life?

Amazon.ca version has SKC's for only $72!

https://imgur.com/a/xbzD5

https://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/B06XJ3RTSM/

The NFL made the agreement with the Browns because the city of Cleveland had a lease for the Browns to play in memorial stadium for a few more years. The NFL didn't want to go through the headache of of a team playing in an empty stadium without advertisers and an absolutely hostile market so they gave in and agreed to give Cleveland a new team (either expansion or relocation) upon building of a new stadium.

The NFL then fucked over the expansion Browns as punishment and yeah. There is a book about the process, I've never read, but it's quite detailed called False Start.

https://www.amazon.com/False-Start-Browns-Were-Fail/dp/1886228884

If anyone wants a perspective of what it was like to be a child growing up during the civil war in Sierra Leone check out the book "A Long Way Gone." Crazy crazy stuff you don't hear much about.