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摸著石頭过河絶对是正確的態度，因為中國有獨特的國情。當年鄧小平靠著不迷信教條的務實態度，左右並行，開啓了成功的經濟改革，如果中國有机會開放政治，這也應是武功心法。

前面樓主提出的假設狀況雖然有趣，但老實説只是假想可能之—。李一平的變局策的後六策，更加詳細地討論了民主突發的可能後續狀況。有趣的是，他認為只有建立地方自治才能保証民主的進程。有興趣可參考。

如果能夠以别的國家民主轉型的经驗作參考，相信可行性和可信度會更高。當年鄧在渡河之前，就參考了新加坡和台湾模式，用在特區之上。這方面西方學術界著作許多。下面這本2013的書分析了8個國家的案例。前面楼主所提到的遊擊勢力等，也包括其中。這是個有趣的課題，但目前國内，大概找不到什麽中文訊息吧。因此僅提出英文資料，以供參考。

Pathways to Freedom
-- Political and Economic Lessons From Democratic Transitions
https://www.amazon.com/Pathways-Freedom-Political-Democratic-Transitions/dp/087609566X

新书，方便的话请支持正版
亚马逊
goodreads
好孩子看不见

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