I've read interesting analysis of the argument in "Objecting God" from Bayesian POV. In sort, this kind of argument can't result in conclusion, only in change of probability via Bayes theorem.
For example, let assume the probability of life in designer-less universe as P(Life|Chance) = 0.0000001 (can be any close to 0, but not 0), and probability of life in designed universe as P(Life|Designer) = 0.99 (any close to 1, but not 1). Let's assume probability of designer P(Designer)=P(Chance)=0.5. We know, that life exists. So to use our assumptions, we need to use Bayesian theorem to correct probabilities after observation.
Looks like we just proved the designer. But the problem is, the result depends on selected chances - and we have no reason to assume 50/50 chance. For example, if we assume only 0.000001 a priori chance of existence of designer, the existence of life will pump it only to 0.908. If you have no reasons to assume high a priori probability of designer - more than 0 - the existence of life will not change it at all.
Colin Howson – Objecting to God
George H. Smith – Atheism: The Case Against God
Graham Oppy – Arguing about Gods
Graham Oppy – The Best Argument Against God
Herman Philipse – God in the Age of Science
J. L. Mackie – The Miracle of Theism
Jordan Sobel – Logic and Theism
Nicholas Everitt – The Non-Existence of God
Richard Gale – On the Nature and Existence of God
Robin Le Poidevin – Arguing for Atheism
Andrew Melnyk – A Physicalist Manifesto
I've read interesting analysis of the argument in "Objecting God" from Bayesian POV. In sort, this kind of argument can't result in conclusion, only in change of probability via Bayes theorem.
For example, let assume the probability of life in designer-less universe as P(Life|Chance) = 0.0000001 (can be any close to 0, but not 0), and probability of life in designed universe as P(Life|Designer) = 0.99 (any close to 1, but not 1). Let's assume probability of designer P(Designer)=P(Chance)=0.5. We know, that life exists. So to use our assumptions, we need to use Bayesian theorem to correct probabilities after observation.
P(Designer|Life) = P(Designer)P(Life|Designer)/P(Life)
= P(Designer)P(Life|Designer)/(P(Designer)P(Life|Designer) + P(Chance)P(Life|Chance))
= 0.50.99/(0.50.99+0.5*0.0000001) = 0.99999989899
Looks like we just proved the designer. But the problem is, the result depends on selected chances - and we have no reason to assume 50/50 chance. For example, if we assume only 0.000001 a priori chance of existence of designer, the existence of life will pump it only to 0.908. If you have no reasons to assume high a priori probability of designer - more than 0 - the existence of life will not change it at all.