Reddit reviews The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

Really dig STRATFOR. I also recommend "The Next 100 Years" for an expansion of those ideas, written by the same fellow.

As globalization becomes more and more pronounced America will become less and less important in Global Politics.

Being in a superior geographical position (Access to both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans) has been very advantageous to the American economy. The only reason why America is the world's only superpower right now, is the sheer size of the American Navy. The future of America as a superpower will be directly tied to preserving naval dominance.

Here's a good book on the subject

There's an interesting page or two in The Next 100 Years where the author makes the argument that this "on the brink of the end of the world" semi-hysteria has always been an identifiable element of the general American character. This might just be one extreme expression of that.

Sorry I can't refer you to the specific chapter or quote it directly at the moment. Whole thing's an interesting read by a big name in geopolitics, regardless of what proportion you or I might consider credible, though.

According to this this book, there's going to be a population crash (which is already starting in some countries like Russia and Japan).

Our taxes will go up to support our elderly people, but we'll be making more money because labor will be in short supply. Housing will get cheaper, but services will become more expensive, again because of the labor shortage. We'll also stop trying to keep immigrants out and start trying to attract them to help make up the gap.

The Last Samurai? I thought it was called Dances With Samurais!

Though I can't really say I care much for the East in general, Japan's such an amazing place (I love demographics and that's one homogeous biatch). It's a long shot, but you might want to check out The Next Hundred Years -- this guy's predicting a return of a strong Japan!

If you're stupid, why bother asking questions?

In all seriousness, the child equation is flipped in low income or agrarian societies. Children, esp. male children, are both a means of near term income as they contribute work, earned income, dowry (for daughters) and offer an insurance against the future. They have a relatively low investment compared to industrial societies as the need for education is reduced and the period of childhood is comparatively short (lasting to around the onset of puberty).

In modern industrial, finance, and information societies, the cost of rearing a child is orders of magnitude higher requiring more education and more resources over a prolonged childhood, often reaching into their 20's. Families cannot invest nearly as much as so self limit the number of children. Likewise, the insurance afforded by the investment is proportional to the resources per child invested early on and there is reduced benefit more children.

Family sizes, however, are driven to a large degree by societal pressure and it takes generations often for the society to adapt family expectations to economic realities.

Read The Next 100 Years. Some of it is utter crap, but there are insightful nuggets.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/038551705X

I just saw this book on my friends coffee table yesterday. I haven't read it, but plan to. Only took a quick glance, but might be worth the read.

>The only country on the planet that could even begin to fight a war with the United States (nuclear weapons notwithstanding) is Mexico.

I thought of Canada for a brief moment, and then I chuckled.

Have you read this book? Much of what you say is consistent with ideas presented there, including Mexico eventually becoming a threat.

Reminded me of this book: link. Same thing, but for this century. Good read if you're in to that kind of thing.

In George Friedman's book, he predicts WW3 between the US and a Japanese-Turkish alliance that is started by attacks from a Japanese lunar base on US Battlestar satellites.

I suggest you read The Next 100 Years (http://www.amazon.com/Next-100-Years-Forecast-Century/dp/038551705X) if you're questioning the US's military spending.

http://www.amazon.com/Next-100-Years-Forecast-Century/dp/038551705X