(Part 3) Top products from r/CryptoCurrency

This is better than buying and praying but be wary of many factors when designing a trading system.

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1. Overfitting: When you are backtesting any strategy, there is a danger of overfitting the dataset. A more appropriate way to model this is to separate your data into training and test sets. Then you design your system using the training dataset, then test the performance against the test set. I like to randomly sample the historical data or randomly generate data that has a similar shape to make sure that I'm not overfitting.
   
2. Tax: If you haven't included the tax drag on your investment strategy, you could see the real returns be negative. For example, if I hold a token for over 12 months in the US, my tax rate is half (around 20%) of what I would pay for a short-term gain (nearly 40%). If you are trading in a taxable account, this can be ruinous. If you're trading in a Roth or other tax-free (deferred) account, go nuts!
   
3. Market slippage: You'll frequently find that you cannot enter the market exactly at the market close. Luckily in cryptos you don't have to worry about overnight gaps, but just because the historical data shows a closing price is no guarantee that you can fill your orders at that price. What is the gap between your bid-ask spread? What is the depth of the order book at each day's close?
   
4. Psychology: Unless you are a sociopath, you won't follow your strategy perfectly. You'll sell too early or buy too late, even if your technical indicators are correct.
   
5. Transaction Costs: Every transaction in the crypto space carries a significant cost with it. It can be .25% or more. With a 10-day moving average, you will be trading frequently and those fees will accumulate.
   
6. Risk Management: How large of a position will you allocate to ETH? What do you do when you have a market that tanks overnight, bypassing your stop-losses? How much are you willing to risk on a specific signal?
   
   Be careful. What you have discovered is valuable, but if it were that easy, everyone would be doing it. It doesn't mean it can't be done, but identifying a buy/sell signals is only 5% of your trading system.
   
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   If you are interested in developing these types of systems as a career, consider reading Quantitative Trading: How to Build Your Own Algorithmic Trading Business by Ernest P. Chan. It's an excellent starting point for building trading systems.
   
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   https://www.amazon.com/Quantitative-Trading-Build-Algorithmic-Business/dp/0470284889
   
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   I have made all of these mistakes and more over the past 10 years as a professional investor. I love this stuff, so I'm happy to answer any questions you guys have about your systems. Maybe I can help save you a little pain and suffering!

Not sure about the math bits but this holds true for bull / bubble runs:

> Even small growth will positively loop back and encourage further growth that will continue to grow exponentially

Rober Shiller dives deep into this phenomena in his book Irrational Exuberance

Although these are in no way top 10 articles, I’ve received good feedback from non-tech readers here on Reddit and on the site. Give it a look before reading some of the more thorough articles. My take on bitcoin. My explanation of blockchains

Then consider buying a digital copy of Blockchain for Dummies by Tiana Laurence. Amazon link. The digital copy has many useful links to more info.

Good luck.

Yes the karma system was invented to protect crypto traders from getting idle hands from evil rumor spreaders like me.

What a fucking self aggrendizing and delusional thought.

If you were interested in real financial advice you wouldn't be reading this subreddit, the dumbest place have found yet on the internet for cryptonews. Even 4chan/biz is better because they don't downvote bad news and signals.

If you wan't to get out of the fomo/fud mill go read a book ( you should thank me for this advice ):

https://www.amazon.com/Reminiscences-Stock-Operator-Edwin-Lefèvre/dp/0471770884

Also go help your local community or pledge a percentage of your income. Jesus you guys are fucking navel gazing.

Go look at the charts we are heading downwards and selling and buying in again is NOT BAD ADVICE right now.

We just passed the 128 MA that we have been ABOVE SINCE 2016 for gods sake. Over 2 years ago and at that time we entered long term bear market.

Just giving you guys free advice and you get all sad and angry and vengeful.

I like the word "forging" as an alternative to "mining" as it implies creating something new rather than finding something that is already there. I think at least one crypto uses this term, but I don't remember which now.

For a guide on naming things well (and consistently) I highly recommend Metaphors We Live By, which completely changed how I think about language.

I'd say get both these books, the technical details are very good and they're both very well written.


Mastering Bitcoin


Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Technologies


And take this free online class based on the second book I recommended:
https://www.coursera.org/learn/cryptocurrency/

I can't recommend it - at all. I often look at the 1-star reviews on Amazon to see who really hates a book or product. Gives me a more nuanced look at it. Author seems to be a kook.

How about America's Bank: The Epic Struggle to Create the Federal Reserve. An exhausting, if dry and even boring, look a how the Fed was created. But at least it appears to be fact-based, and based on contemporary accounts at the time. The author spends a lot of time on the politics of how the Fed came about, and less time on more interesting topics, like: What is money? What else does a central bank do? Is crypto going to burn it all down?

There's a lot of paranoia about central banks. But they clearly have smoothed out the boom and bust cycles that used to plague this country. Apparently, the US was one of the last Western countries to adopt a central bank. I know, they are not perfect: see the Great Depression of the 30s, and the Minor Depression of 2008. But we would miss the Fed if it was gone.

Banks and cryptos are going to co-exist for a long time together. Frothing against bankers is understandable, even necessary, especially over the more egregious issues. But let's not forget that banks, and the central banks, of large, developed, technically sophisticated countries, play an important role in helping make everything run.

I think Bi Polar Disorder is more effective, since it greatly helps fomo in.

These are classics:

• Numerology and the Divine Triangle
  
  
• Numbers and You: A Numerology Guide for Everyday Living

I feel this is all arguing about how many angels will fit on a pinhead and both coins will probably be irrelevant soon and replaced by more technologically advanced coins. We aren't still driving around Ford Model Ts anymore either. Time marches on and all the bickering and political crap just makes people want bitcoin to die faster. For what it is worth (I hold neither coin), BCH looks closest to the original bitcoin described by Satoshi.

If someone wants a good book to investigate the issue themselves, I highly recommend-

https://www.amazon.com/Book-Satoshi-Collected-Writings-Nakamoto/dp/0996061312/

https://www.amazon.com/Sovereign-Individual-Mastering-Transition-Information/dp/0684832720

Good read. May change your view.
It is David vs Goliath.

Blockchain Revolution by Don and Alex Tapscott is another good read. https://www.amazon.ca/Blockchain-Revolution-Technology-Changing-Business/dp/1101980133

Money has always been a system of control. Nixon didn't invent it in 1970.
Graeber's Debt: The First 5000 Years gives a good account of the history, and his development of the "military-coinage-slavery" concept shows that it goes back to the time of the Buddha, Confucious and Pythagoras.

Hitler's Beneficiaries: Plunder, Racial War, and the Nazi Welfare State also gives accounts of how the Nazis used finance as a system of control.

https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640

Close enough...

Chapter One: "Buying High"

I did.

The Age of Cryptocurrency

https://www.amazon.com/Age-Cryptocurrency-Blockchain-Challenging-Economic/dp/1250081556

Back in 2016 when people felt crypto could change the world. It will come back again as BTC price rises.

In light of his early years in WWII, and his subsequent rise to power and wealth, he fits eerily into the vampire plot of Carrion Comfort.

The author also wrote The Terror, currently a miniseries on AMC, and the Hyperion Cantos, btw.

Here is the text that describes Kurzweil's vision. It is the only book I've ever read twice (besides the Bible, but I was confused then). I really suggest you pick it up - if money is an obstacle feel free to pm me your address and I'll send you a copy.